Final preseason ND win projections...

Easton Pa ND Fan

Easton Pa ND Fan

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Program compared 2008 final pts/game, margins and
games won percents to final power ratings. The
net applied weights, linkage or ??? that it found
to the current power rating sets.

ND's preseason win projection is 9-3 or 10-2.
Be aware that the win percents reverse for
ND when the Irish are the visitor.

Join the Goshen Gipper pick'em (miss his posts)
and have lots of fun...Tom

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</PRE>
 
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phork

phork

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Doesn't say we are losing to Michigan. Does however say we are going to get bombed by Pitt. As well as lose to Stanford by .4 of a point.
 
Dizzyphil

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Only math I got out of that table was: Turd squared equals shit. How the hell am I supposed to read that thing?????


Diz
 
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wicket

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Dizzyphil said:
Only math I got out of that table was: Turd squared equals shit. How the hell am I supposed to read that thing?????


Diz
Click to expand...

its not that difficult to read this.
the columns are in order:
Home Team
Away Team
Expected number of home points
Margin of 'victory' (or defeat when a minus) expecter for the home team
expected number of point for the away team
expected chance of winning for the HOME team.

This table says we are expected to score less points than the opponent in 3 games (usc,pitt and stanford)
and we have a bigger than 50 % losing chance according to this in 2 games (pitt & usc)

the difference can be explained easily. The numbers apparently expect ND to win more games but if they win they are expected to win by a smaller margin. this can be explained by our tendancy to occasionally totally screw a game up.

Little note though the expected record of nd is somewhere between 8-4 and 9-3 since we are not that likely to win all the games we are favoured in.

Obviously i dont know how they made these numbers so i cant say how much value i could give them but still
 
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I got a bad feeling about the Michigan game. The term "Drive-by" comes to mind. I hope they dont under-estimate those guys and jump out ahead quickly.
 
B

BGIF

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wicket said:
... Obviously i dont know how they made these numbers so i cant say how much value i could give them but still
Click to expand...

Program compared 2008 final pts/game, margins and
games won percents to final power ratings. The
net applied weights, linkage or ??? that it found
to the current power rating sets.
Click to expand...
Tom (Easton PA) had complied several runs looking at Power Ratings from 8 computer rating services like Sagarin. The table in this thread compared last seasons points per game, margin of victory, winning percentage against the final team power ratings. It then applied it to the projected 2009 Power Ratings to project the results of the 2009 season.

Supposedly the gurus make adjustments for players gone from last season and changes in schedule.

I don't know how they make adjustments for coaching changes like Verducci for Latina, Hart for Oliver, Tenuta making the Defensive calls, and Weis as OC instead of Haywood.
 
Bubba

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BGIF said:
I don't know how they make adjustments for coaching changes like Verducci for Latina, Hart for Oliver, Tenuta making the Defensive calls, and Weis as OC instead of Haywood.
Click to expand...

(Verducci±√(〖Weis〗^2+Tenuta))/(-2(Latina-Oliver)) ≅ +2 wins

Disclaimer: This is just an estimate of course; it does not take into consideration the new training table or current weather conditions at game time.
 
Last edited:
B

BGIF

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DiveRightIn said:
(Verducci±√(〖Weis〗^2+Tenuta))/(-2(Latina-Oliver)) ≅ +2 wins

Disclaimer: This is just an estimate of course; it does not take into consideration the new training table or current weather conditions at game time.
Click to expand...

You've neglected the Heart Factor:

Hart + dx/dt = 2 more.

where dx/dt = training table impact

N.B. - Haywood + Alford = push
 
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wicket

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DiveRightIn said:
(Verducci±√(〖Weis〗^2+Tenuta))/(-2(Latina-Oliver)) ≅ +2 wins

Disclaimer: This is just an estimate of course; it does not take into consideration the new training table or current weather conditions at game time.
Click to expand...
lol
 
Bubba

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BGIF said:
You've neglected the Heart Factor:

Hart + dx/dt = 2 more.

where dx/dt = training table impact

N.B. - Haywood + Alford = push
Click to expand...

damn, I knew I missed something. Well, that puts us at 13 wins (9+2+2more). I'll take it.
 
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