College Football Playoff Invitational by ESPN

[BleedBlueGold]

Yeah I get what you guys are saying, and to be clear I was one of the "doomers" who thought we would get screwed last year because of the bias / financial interests in the room and I was proven correct.

What I'm trying to say is that in the scenario where both Wisconsin and SMU finish 8-4 or worse... very very low probability that ND would have the resume to get in over other 2-loss teams and would probably get jumped by some 3-loss teams because they would have zero "ranked" wins. The committee over-indexes who you beat (with circular logic, using their own rankings as justification) and under-indexes who you lost to.

But let's say SMU and Wisconsin both finish 10-2, there is a 0.0% chance that a 10-2 ND gets left out with those two wins and only losses to Miami/BYU. You just have to put together the puzzle of what it would mean for those teams to finish with those records and you cannot conceivably come up with a path where ND gets left out.

Didn't the committee conveniently leave Navy out of the Top 25 last year, even though they would've been another ranked win for ND? Navy finished 11-2 and was ranked in the AP Top 25 throughout the final month of the season. I don't trust the committee not to do the same if SMU and/or Wisconsin are fringe Top 25 teams at the end of the season. Last year showed me the committee's true colors. If ND finishes 10-2, I don't think they're getting in. I think they'll get dropped to No. 13 to avoid the automatic bid, and the teams that need to fall in the rankings to justify that placement will conveniently fall at the end, too.

 

[Dale]

Wait till the intraconference SOS hits SMU and Wisconsin. Oh man that would be a fun one

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Didn't the committee conveniently leave Navy out of the Top 25 last year, even though they would've been another ranked win for ND? Navy finished 11-2 and was ranked in the AP Top 25 throughout the final month of the season. I don't trust the committee not to do the same if SMU and/or Wisconsin are fringe Top 25 teams at the end of the season. Last year showed me the committee's true colors. If ND finishes 10-2, I don't think they're getting in. I think they'll get dropped to No. 13 to avoid the automatic bid, and the teams that need to fall in the rankings to justify that placement will conveniently fall at the end, too.

Agree, which is why this whole thing is a dog and pony show. The talking heads made a big deal about NDs financial windfall in the 2024 playoff run. Its about ensuring conferences get their cut of the money. Its no accident ND went to the playoffs in 24, made a bunch of money which they kept to themselves, and then were left out the next year. Just follow the $$$. Now ND may get the benefit of the doubt this year since they were left out last year, and the stupid G6 business of getting 2 teams is off the table.

 

[IrishLax]

Great. I have zero faith that this is a logical resume based selection process, I’m surprised you now do but to each their own. It’s conferences and spots. Hopefully one is leftover or Pete pissed enough people off or made concessions for the last 11 months.

The simplified version is that in the CFP era there has never been a case of a team that has 2x Top 15 wins + has 2 or fewer losses = has not finished within in the top 10. When you add onto to that the criteria of playing 4x Top 15 teams and the only losses being to top ranked teams, it becomes even more exclusionary. Expand it to Top 12 and there might not even be a case of it in modern CFB, but I didn't check this.

This is all a moot point in the sense that the odds of Wisconsin and SMU running the table are quite low, but if you run a basic Monte Carlo simulation that assumes SMU + Wisconsin do finish 10-2 and ND loses to Miami, it is very close to 0% of outcomes would have ND conceivably outside the Top 10*

*To your point though, this does not factor in blatant corruption that could see ND moved to 13th for strict horse trading purposes between conferences.

 

[IrishLax]

Didn't the committee conveniently leave Navy out of the Top 25 last year, even though they would've been another ranked win for ND? Navy finished 11-2 and was ranked in the AP Top 25 throughout the final month of the season. I don't trust the committee not to do the same if SMU and/or Wisconsin are fringe Top 25 teams at the end of the season. Last year showed me the committee's true colors. If ND finishes 10-2, I don't think they're getting in. I think they'll get dropped to No. 13 to avoid the automatic bid, and the teams that need to fall in the rankings to justify that placement will conveniently fall at the end, too.

Correct, and that's why in this hypothetical I'm only considering the scenario where they finish 8-1 in their conference and at worst tied for second place. I fully believe that even at 9-3 the committee would find ways to have them ranked behind all SEC 3-loss teams and maybe even some 4-loss teams.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Wait till the intraconference SOS hits SMU and Wisconsin. Oh man that would be a fun one

Somehow, this new metric will be used as a negative for ND. The talking heads on ESPN will find a way to twist the narrative with flawed logic to use this metric to talk about the one team that it cannot be applied towards. "Well the average intraconference SOR for NDs opponents is 9th, which is behind Alabamas 8th ranked SEC intraconference SOR." Or some dumb shit like that.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

This is all moot until the games get played but for sake of conversation: If ND loses to Miami, how far are they getting dropped? My guess is it'll be the front end of the 10-14 range. So even at #10 and they finish 10-2 with wins over ranked Wisc and SMU, to think that the committee can't or won't find a way to drop them out of the top 12 when there are a TON of P4 teams who will be vying for those last few spots, after what happened last year, is crazy talk. The 10-14 range will be a full on war for those teams (and their respective conferences) trying to lock up the 10-12 spots. Recent history is not on ND's side in that scenario.

Leave no doubt was not tied to the idea of ND being 10-2 with losses to BYU and Miami....because we all know what will happen.

 

[NDFAN2008]

They also need to do something about the SEC having so many ties on the committee board, there's literally 6-7 member with SEC ties.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

They also need to do something about the SEC having so many ties on the committee board, there's literally 6-7 member with SEC ties.

It just means more!

 

[YonkersEejit]

They also need to do something about the SEC having so many ties on the committee board, there's literally 6-7 member with SEC ties.

I don't think that's accurate. I know the head is the Arkansas AD, but I believe that's it?

 

[NDFAN2008]

I don't think that's accurate. I know the head is the Arkansas AD, but I believe that's it?

Maybe you are correct but I don't believe a current AD should be sitting on the board.

 

[NotKoon]

This entire conversation is depressing, beat Miami and leave no doubt. Or lose to Miami and prove you aren’t the team you thought you were

 

[Jimmy3Putt]

We already laid our egg. If we don’t beat Miami we deserve whatever fate the committee gives us.

Out again at 10-2 and I will want in a conference which is exactly what they’re trying to do to ND.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

We already laid our egg. If we don’t beat Miami we deserve whatever fate the committee gives us.

Out again at 10-2 and I will want in a conference which is exactly what they’re trying to do to ND.

We are less than 5 years away from conference-less P4 and G6 leagues.

 

[Jonaz]

We already laid our egg. If we don’t beat Miami we deserve whatever fate the committee gives us.

Out again at 10-2 and I will want in a conference which is exactly what they’re trying to do to ND.

If we are 10-2 we don't deserve a spot unless a lot of other teams lose. That being said joining a conference would be worthless because of the 24 team playoff next year. Win out and were in. Plain and Simple.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

We already laid our egg. If we don’t beat Miami we deserve whatever fate the committee gives us.

Out again at 10-2 and I will want in a conference which is exactly what they’re trying to do to ND.

The 180 every single talking head will do if/when that day comes will prove this to be exactly what we all know it to be. The second ND joins a conference, there will be non-stop jockeying to get them into the playoffs at all cost. They will be the media darling just like OSU, Georgia, Bama, etc.

 

[Jimmy3Putt]

I’m sick of being forced to win every game by a margin so wide the conferences can’t steal it with their refs.
Between that and every talking point going against us by the committee, it might not be worth it anymore.

 

[jerseyborn1971]

They go to 24 teams next year. A 9-3 ND goes to the playoff. There is even less reason for ND to join a conference now. The entire obsession so many people have with Notre Dame joining a conference is bizarre. They'll keep 10-2 ND out again this year because they know its the last time ND will be out of the playoff maybe ever.

 

[pumpdog20]

Even after last year, some of you are still holding out hope that we get in at 10-2 (with losses to BYU and Miami). Bless your hearts. lol

 

[Jimmy3Putt]

If we are 10-2 we don't deserve a spot unless a lot of other teams lose. That being said joining a conference would be worthless because of the 24 team playoff next year. Win out and were in. Plain and Simple.

Just wait until they start saying we don’t deserve a playoff at 10-2 over a 8-4 SEC team even in the 24 team playoff.

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

This is all moot until the games get played but for sake of conversation: If ND loses to Miami, how far are they getting dropped? My guess is it'll be the front end of the 10-14 range. So even at #10 and they finish 10-2 with wins over ranked Wisc and SMU, to think that the committee can't or won't find a way to drop them out of the top 12 when there are a TON of P4 teams who will be vying for those last few spots, after what happened last year, is crazy talk. The 10-14 range will be a full on war for those teams (and their respective conferences) trying to lock up the 10-12 spots. Recent history is not on ND's side in that scenario.

Leave no doubt was not tied to the idea of ND being 10-2 with losses to BYU and Miami....because we all know what will happen.

If we lose to Miami we do not deserve the playoff. The season is a loss and I hope we skip the Taco bowl just to piss everyone off again.

 

[PutuporShutup]

Big Ten 3, Big 12 2, ACC 1, G6 1, SEC 4.

You are so 100% sure after last year a 4th 10 - 2 Big Ten team or a 5th SEC team with a ton of ranked wins will be left out? What if Miami loses the ACC Championship, ACC not gonna get two?

Of course there is a way.

Big ten really only has 4 teams in contention of getting in the CFP... UCLA, OSU, NW, Indiana...... IMO really only UCLA and Indiana are locks to have 2 or less losses in the regular season. Ohio State has 5 real games remaining, they could lose any (that might change if their QB balls out this weekend, but I doubt he does with so little experience. Northwestern has 3 or 4 tough games, one of which is Ohio State. I think one of northwestern or Ohio state ends up with 3 losses in the regular season.

So big ten most likely really only has 3 teams getting in.

SEC you're penciling in 4, i think you can really only pencil in 2, then the probably get in 2 teams with 3 losses. Only Georgia and Kentucky have 1 loss, kentucky plays tenn, florida, missouri, louisville........... georgia plays florida, ole miss, missourie, south carolina.

I think Georgia is really the only team in the SEC that's close to a lock to have 2 or less losses in the regular season, if kentucky does then that means the put a third loss minimum on tenn, florida, missouri. After Georgia and Kentucky, probably Bama has the best odds to finish with only 2 regular season losses, they have one really tough game remaining at LSU. But Bama got whipped by Tenn, they aren't getting in with 3 losses if they lose to LSU.


So, I think 2-3 teams are going to get into this years CFP with 3 regular season losses, and ND will be ahead of most likely all of them if they lose to Miami (and it's not a blowout).

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I’m sick of being forced to win every game by a margin so wide the conferences can’t steal it with their refs.
Between that and every talking point going against us by the committee, it might not be worth it anymore.

Last year tipped my hand towards supporting the join a conference group. I understand IND, I admire it, I respect the long-standing history, etc. But college football landscape has changed so much that it's almost a pointless fight.

Just wait until they start saying we don’t deserve a playoff at 10-2 over a 8-4 SEC team even in the 24 team playoff.

This will undoubtedly happen if ND is at 9-3. Not sure 10-2.

 

[Jonaz]

We are entirely capable of going 11-1 this year. If we don't, skip the bowl, fire Ash and Denbrock and start over.

 

[jerseyborn1971]

9 of the top 12 teams already have a loss and most will have at least one more in the back half of the season. It's going to be a field filled with 2 loss teams. The committee will keep ND high on the initial rankings because it's highly likely ND will have games against 4 ranked teams by the end of the year. Even if they go 2-2 in those games with one of the losses to the #1 team in the country, they will get in the Top 12. It's important for SMU and Wisc to finish strong because that would greatly limit any damage from losing to Miami.

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

Last year tipped my hand towards supporting the join a conference group. I understand IND, I admire it, I respect the long-standing history, etc. But college football landscape has changed so much that it's almost a pointless fight.

This will undoubtedly happen if ND is at 9-3. Not sure 10-2.

I am indifferent to joining a conference. But when, not if the ACC loses their top teams ND better not stay in the remnants of what will be a craptastic conference.

 

[BeatSC]

only way a 3 loss team gets in over a 2 loss ND is if that is a team who had their 3rd loss in a conference championship game and one that was close. A Bama like 3rd loss won’t do it this year. I think we will see more carnage where current candidates will absorb a third loss and be out or at least behind ND this year. I don’t see them screwing us like last year again. Unless we get beat by Miami like we were coached by Gerry Faust.

 

[jerseyborn1971]

Some of y'all seriously believe ND would be left out of a TWENTY FOUR team playoff with a 10-2 record?? There were only 8 P4 teams with less than 2 losses at the end of the regular season last year. Do you really believe a 10-2 ND team gets left out in favor of am 8-4 Iowa team? Because 8-4 Iowa would have made it in last season.

 

[PutuporShutup]

We already laid our egg. If we don’t beat Miami we deserve whatever fate the committee gives us.

Out again at 10-2 and I will want in a conference which is exactly what they’re trying to do to ND.

Most teams have laid an egg that will be in or are being talked about getting in. As pissed as i'll be if we go 10-2, and you'll hear/see it. A 10-2 ND team should absolutely be in this year.

Georgia - Laid egg at home vs auburn (auburn worse than BYU)
Indiana - Worse schedule than ND, 1 tough game at home, lost, play no one else good
BYU - Laid an Egg UCF
Kentucky - Laid an egg vs Bama at home lost by 28
Alabama - Laid an egg at Tenn - looked terrible, lost by what 16?


That right there is 5 of the top 10, and teams that most likely will have 2 or less losses and ahead of ND. Almost every other team outside of big 12 will have more than 2 losses.

A scenario that could hurt ND is if Wake goes 11-2 losing twice only to Miami, and one in the conference championship game. But that would mean wake beat SMU at SMU (they definitely can, but would hurt our resume too).

 

[jerseyborn1971]

Remember when all the rankings chaos upsets happened in the last 2 weeks of the regular season? Now they happening starting in week 7. The committee shouldn't even have rankings. They should just do brackets at the end of the season like March Madness, unaffected by week to week happenings where they have to keep moving teams up and back and inexplicably jump teams.