2025 College Football Playoffs

[Bane]

I agree that if Bama gets blown out they should drop out, but I think the committee's move on Tuesday signaled that is not going to happen. If Bama was still at 10, sure, but not anymore. Bama is a lock.

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

If Bama loses and doesn't look good again they absolutely should drop 2 spots. They would have 3 losses (yes one in the conf champ game), and they also would STILL have lost to the worst team of any potential playoff team, and they didn't just lose to FSU they got whipped.

Should they drop? Heck yes! Will they, Heck no... Won't happen. Sankey would burn it all down if they do that. The committee is in the pocket of the SEC first and the Big 10 second.

 

[Kingbish01]

Ya...we all agree Bama looks terrible and should drop if they lose...but it sounds like we all agree it won't happen.

 

[pumpdog20]

Sucks that we might not get to see a healthy Love in the playoffs.

 

[Kingbish01]

I don't know who this guy is, but this is roughly how I see it. Not sure the TT placement, but whatever.

 

[FireJeffQuinn]

If Bama loses and doesn't look good again they absolutely should drop 2 spots. They would have 3 losses (yes one in the conf champ game), and they also would STILL have lost to the worst team of any potential playoff team, and they didn't just lose to FSU they got whipped.

FWIW we got killed by Clemson in the ACC Championship game in 2020 and didn't drop. It's fair to not punish a team for a CCG rematch. Now, what's not fair is jumping them over us with zero justification...

 

[ozzman]

I don't know who this guy is, but this is roughly how I see it. Not sure the TT placement, but whatever.View attachment 3061476

Former PSU tight end we were all hoping to flip.

https://www.irishenvy.com/threads/13-pa-te-adam-breneman-penn-state-verbal.60826/

 

[NDPhilly]

FanDuel Sportsbook

sportsbook.fanduel.com

Us being +1000 despite (1) not being a lock, (2) not having a bye, and (3) playing on the road R1 if we get is a better tell than any on how good we are.

 

[Kingbish01]

FanDuel Sportsbook

sportsbook.fanduel.com

Us being +1000 despite (1) not being a lock, (2) not having a bye, and (3) playing on the road R1 if we get is a better tell than any on how good we are.

10X better odds than Miami and 100X better odds than BYU

 

[WildMan1]

10X better odds than Miami and 100X better odds than BYU

Exactly.. I think the initial swing back is just haters refusing to realize the committee likes ND & thinking it’s easy money taking Miami right now.

It’s exactly how Vegas ropes street money in.. if the sharps swing it back our way Saturday night/Sunday morning we’re basically a lock.

I refuse to believe Vegas is blind here.

 

[pumpdog20]

If we don't make the playoffs this year, then there better be some changes about how they go about things.

+get some alliances, if that means joining a conference then so be it, preferably the Big Ten; and play at Iowa every other year
+get rid of the "we're too good to talk shit attitude", it seems to be working for others while we sit on our dicks or help the GMA crew get over hump day
+use blackmail, this would all go away if Bevacqua would have paid some spies to snap photos of Trump during their gold outing

Obviously tongue in cheek... at the same time if you're going to charge us plebs, NFL prices for season tickets in the nose bleeds, you better be giving us playoffs in the 12+ field era.

 

[jprue24]

Was that Twain? I love Twain. Just finished Huck Finn and its the best book I've read in ages. Some consider Twain the first stand up comedian. He once travelled to Australia and came to Newcastle which is where I live. He was born the year Haley's comet was here and died the year of the next time it was here.

Twain said it in his autobiography and attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli.

 

[Domina Nostra]

I wonder on some level if all the outrage about ND and its independent status is part of the show and the committee will like it to drive ratings.
ND is definitely becoming the Duke Basketball of college football; people will watch hoping to see them fail.

 

[Bane]

I wonder on some level if all the outrage about ND and its independent status is part of the show and the committee will like it to drive ratings.
ND is definitely becoming the Duke Basketball of college football; people will watch hoping to see them fail.

Yeah, people have been saying this recent shuffle on Tuesday was part of a conspiracy to drive ratings and clicks and then the committee will "do the right thing" on Sunday and put Miami over us. But, if it's all just for ratings, drama, clicks, and outrage, what better team to put in the playoffs than Notre Dame? People will be outraged about it for years.

 

[jprue24]

I wonder on some level if all the outrage about ND and its independent status is part of the show and the committee will like it to drive ratings.
ND is definitely becoming the Duke Basketball of college football; people will watch hoping to see them fail.

Sure, why not? For all we know they preposition teams to make the decision making process simpler. I'm going to be a broken record, but using a single play a reasoning for delineation of entire seasons means they have zero issue going into the gray area to find a reason for why they did this or did that.

Right now, I'm not convinced anyone has a clue about what these guys are doing in that room.

 

[WildMan1]

I wonder on some level if all the outrage about ND and its independent status is part of the show and the committee will like it to drive ratings.
ND is definitely becoming the Duke Basketball of college football; people will watch hoping to see them fail.

Sending a message to ND about being independent this way would be diabolical 😂

 

[jprue24]

Sending a message to ND about being independent this way would be diabolical 😂

If they are doing this, it's bitch behavior and means the entire process is just a bad faith exercise for cash... not unreasonable in today's environment. There are a myriad of other opportunities for the committee to turn the conference screws on ND. Including, just plopping them right outside the playoff (like BYU) and saying "you have to FORCE us to put you in".

Legally, the B1G and SEC run the playoff structure, and they haven't played hardball in the areas which would force ND out of independence.
That said, I also won't underestimate the general animosity amongst athletic departments created by ND keeping the entire playoff payout. I also won't underestimate people's compacity to be underhanded because they think something "is not fair".

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I don't know who this guy is, but this is roughly how I see it. Not sure the TT placement, but whatever.

Silly to drop TT two spots after a hypothetical win over BYU.

 

[IrishSpartan]

I don't know who this guy is, but this is roughly how I see it. Not sure the TT placement, but whatever.View attachment 3061476

Indiana beats OSU in the championship and we would have a great bracket if tech gets 4

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

The odds aren't moving in our favor, but not to the point it's concerning....

Miami to make the playoffs:

Today---+430 (19% chance to make it)
12/2---- +570 (15% chance to make it)

The implied probability between the two is 4%, even if the odds drop all the way down to +350 (which would def make a few piss down their leg) takes it from 19% chance to 22% chance. I'd start worrying around +165/170 that puts Miami at a 40+% chance of making it. I love how some down play the odds (probably because they don't gamble or truly understand it) but "Vegas" doesn't just give out free money....here is 3X/4X your money.....congrats! Is a knee slapper to me.

Kingfish, you magnificent bastard! As someone who knows zilch about odds and gambling, I appreciate the explanations you provide.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Is there anyone here who can put together a new rankings system that basically does the BCS model w/ weighted data but also add a weighting number for Jamie U's metrics for championship caliber teams? ND checks 6 of his 8 boxes. BYU checks zero. Miami checks 4 i think. Bama checks 2, if memory serves me from their recent podcast. I'd be curious if combining these data points and putting a weight on a combined "box checking" metric would move the needle on some of these teams. Jamie and Greg basically lay out an argument for why ND should be over OU, Bama, BYU, and Miami....all by mathing the math.

Basically ND, IU, Oregon are the only teams who checked 6+ boxes. OSU was at 5.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

DK is offering no payout on Miami at 9-1, even though they are 4-1 now.


I’ll take that as good news. They must not think it’s happening.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NDWarrior]

Apologies if this has already been stated (I can't keep up with all the comments here) but I was looking at current CFP rankings last night and based on the committee's latest comments, I think ND absolutely needs BOTH BYU and 'bama to lose to guarantee its spot in the playoff.

1) If 'bama wins and BYU loses, we're likely stuck at 10 BUT the committee has laid the groundwork that if it's ND at 10 and Miami at 11, we could be flipped due to H2H outcome
1a) Even if 'bama throttles GA, they would then likely drop GA below both ND and Miami for sure and same as above
2) If 'bama loses and BYU wins, 'bama likely drops but I would think below both ND and Miami and we're in the same #10 and #11 pairing and above situation

The committee can't be counted on to vote ND in over Miami if they're in consecutive spots, their "we see ND as better than Miami" comments over the past month notwithstanding.

Go Red Raiders! Go Dawgs!

 

[NDWarrior]

Apologies if this has already been stated (I can't keep up with all the comments here) but I was looking at current CFP rankings last night and based on the committee's latest comments, I think ND absolutely needs BOTH BYU and 'bama to lose to guarantee its spot in the playoff.

1) If 'bama wins and BYU loses, we're likely stuck at 10 BUT the committee has laid the groundwork that if it's ND at 10 and Miami at 11, we could be flipped due to H2H outcome
1a) Even if 'bama throttles GA, they would then likely drop GA below both ND and Miami for sure and same as above
2) If 'bama loses and BYU wins, 'bama likely drops but I would think below both ND and Miami and we're in the same #10 and #11 pairing and above situation

The committee can't be counted on to vote ND in over Miami if they're in consecutive spots, their "we see ND as better than Miami" comments over the past month notwithstanding.

Go Red Raiders! Go Dawgs!

And altho' I'm biased, it would certainly be a shame to leave ND out as the first team out at #13 when if you look at the field of 12 above us in that scenario, I believe ND is one of few teams in the field with a legitimate chance to win it all based on the team's current level of play. It would be a downright tragedy to leave The Irish out.

 

[2013Irish]

I'm sure the answer is "no," but there isn't some obscure bylaw that would allow the committee to slot Miami in at 11 if Duke won, right?

 

[NotKoon]

Something that just hit me. If Bama wins and the committee feels the need to have a buffer between ND and Miami and still want them in, drop Georgia to 10. They remain in the playoff, haven’t played TAMU and you can easily cite their game control for the reasoning

 

[Kingbish01]

Exactly.. I think the initial swing back is just haters refusing to realize the committee likes ND & thinking it’s easy money taking Miami right now.

It’s exactly how Vegas ropes street money in.. if the sharps swing it back our way Saturday night/Sunday morning we’re basically a lock.

I refuse to believe Vegas is blind here.

Blind....I could see "them" having a say.

 

[Kingbish01]

Apologies if this has already been stated (I can't keep up with all the comments here) but I was looking at current CFP rankings last night and based on the committee's latest comments, I think ND absolutely needs BOTH BYU and 'bama to lose to guarantee its spot in the playoff.

1) If 'bama wins and BYU loses, we're likely stuck at 10 BUT the committee has laid the groundwork that if it's ND at 10 and Miami at 11, we could be flipped due to H2H outcome
1a) Even if 'bama throttles GA, they would then likely drop GA below both ND and Miami for sure and same as above
2) If 'bama loses and BYU wins, 'bama likely drops but I would think below both ND and Miami and we're in the same #10 and #11 pairing and above situation

The committee can't be counted on to vote ND in over Miami if they're in consecutive spots, their "we see ND as better than Miami" comments over the past month notwithstanding.

Go Red Raiders! Go Dawgs!

I'd say zero % chance the Dawgs drop behind ND even if Bama beat them 56-3 furthest IMO would be 5/6 right in front of Ole Miss.

 

[NDWarrior]

Something that just hit me. If Bama wins and the committee feels the need to have a buffer between ND and Miami and still want them in, drop Georgia to 10. They remain in the playoff, haven’t played TAMU and you can easily cite their game control for the reasoning

Maybe, but I think that with a close GA loss to 'bama, there's likely no way the committee is dropping a 2-loss GA below ND (I would be shocked).

And again, if GA gets throttled, they're likely dropping below both ND and Miami which still doesn't change that situation.

 

[NDWarrior]

I'd say zero % chance the Dawgs drop behind ND even if Bama beat them 56-3 furthest IMO would be 5/6 right in front of Ole Miss.

I disagree. I would think GA takes a nose dive in that scenario, past committee history notwithstanding.