2025 College Football Playoffs

[IrishSteelhead]

Just checked our odds to miss...+270..... no bueno

That is bueno, implies there is a 73% chance of making it


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[Green Mountains]

I can guarantee you that nobody outside of ND fans are looking to 1993 rankings as precedent for the 2025 CFP rankings.

We got beat on the field. We would win a hypothetical rematch, but we lost the literal match. If we don’t want this issue we should lose to inferior opponents

Couldn't this exact statement be made about Miami. They lost to two vastly inferior opponents within the last 6 weeks.

Notre Dame is on a 10 game win streak where they are destroying everyone.

 

[rtrn2glory]

what is no bueno is it continues to decline. Like routinely decline since last Saturday night.

 

[Huntr]

My only gripe with the system to the point I'd call it broken is why must they put in James Madison/North Texas or Tulane. Those three teams have ZERO chance of winning 4 games in a row against a big program, so it's just pointless. What does putting Tulane in and leaving out Miami prove? That a team like OSU essentially gets two byes.

"But what about the kids at JMU that went 11-1 they deserve a chance"

I'd say... "No, they don't, if your kid really wanted to compete for a natty...tell him to work harder and go somewhere that he can actually compete for one...because JMU making the playoffs isn't truly them competing for a Natty"

They included the G6 conferences so they wouldn't get sued.

That won't change until there are separate leagues or a super conference where G6 and P4 aren't ostensibly on the same level (FBS).

 

[EvilleIrish]

what is no bueno is it continues to decline. Like routinely decline since last Saturday night.

It shot up to -500 when the rankings came out on Tuesday. Really think our only path is Tech and UGA both winning.

 

[IrishTusker]

I understand people are salty about 93, but it really has nothing to do with 2025.

As ND fans we are finally getting an eye test bump…. But up until the last few seasons we would have been livid if we beat a team, and then were ranked below them because of the eye test.

In an ideal world, UGA blows out Bama and BYU loses but covers the spread.

I'm not that salty about 1993, I was two and not an ND fan yet. But yeah, 1993 is directly relevant because some people are acting like there is a "rule" that the head-to-head winner must be ahead where two teams have the same number of losses. This isn't a rule, because it were, 1993 would not have happened. We can say it should be the rule. But it isn't.

Someone else sets the rules, not us. Once the rules are set, justice requires that like cases are treated alike. In 1993, voters apparently believed FSU was better, despite losing by 3 on the road to ND. (And of course that was for the NC, not just a playoff spot.) So there is an exception to this rule. We lost to Miami. But under the actual, applied rule, that is relevant but not dispositive in the ranking.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

what is no bueno is it continues to decline. Like routinely decline since last Saturday night.

That’s 100% from all of us wetting the bed and making hedge bets.

We keep using these odds as gospel, but the movement and numbers we see are also created by us, who don’t know anything.

Vegas guesses, and then corrects the odds accordingly as tickets come in to even things out.

People are hammering Miami because it would net a decent payout AND has a chance of actually happening.

You won’t see many people wagering 4200 to net 1000 on the other side, it’s not a good value when there is BYU still lurking.

I’ve been stressing over it myself, but the reality is the real movement will most likely occur Saturday night, and that will be the alarm bells or coronation, because all the sharp money will come in then if they see value.


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[jprue24]

It's going to be great when they decide Miami's h2h matters and move them above ND

 

[Dale]

It's going to be great when they decide Miami's h2h matters and move them above ND

Disagree (hot take)

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

It's going to be great when they decide Miami's h2h matters and move them above ND

That is already in the works. They moved BYU as a buffer between us, but when they lose or when they will move. Then they have opportunity to say that head-to-head matters, the most, and bam were gone

 

[Kingbish01]

That is bueno, implies there is a 73% chance of making it


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The odds aren't moving in our favor, but not to the point it's concerning....

Miami to make the playoffs:

Today---+430 (19% chance to make it)
12/2---- +570 (15% chance to make it)

The implied probability between the two is 4%, even if the odds drop all the way down to +350 (which would def make a few piss down their leg) takes it from 19% chance to 22% chance. I'd start worrying around +165/170 that puts Miami at a 40+% chance of making it. I love how some down play the odds (probably because they don't gamble or truly understand it) but "Vegas" doesn't just give out free money....here is 3X/4X your money.....congrats! Is a knee slapper to me.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

That is already in the works. They moved BYU as a buffer between us, but when they lose or when they will move. Then they have opportunity to say that head-to-head matters, the most, and bam were gone

If that were the case (for the gambling contingent) wouldn't our odds of making the playoffs basically be swapped with Miamis?

 

[jprue24]

If that were the case (for the gambling contingent) wouldn't our odds of making the playoffs basically be swapped with Miamis?

If you knew for sure, yes.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

If you knew for sure, yes.

Ok, why would BYU drop at all in the rankings if they lose?

 

[jprue24]

Ok, why would BYU drop at all in the rankings if they lose?

Because they didn't go for it on a big 4th down.

 

[Kingbish01]

And truthfully I'll repeat something I said an hour ago.... If ND didn't want to be in this spot they wouldn't have fallen down 21-7 late in the 3rd in Miami, they wouldn't have gave up 40+ at home to A&M...We are passionate and we love our Irish, but they failed on both major tests this year. DO BETTER

 

[IrishSteelhead]

The odds aren't moving in our favor, but not to the point it's concerning....

Miami to make the playoffs:

Today---+430 (19% chance to make it)
12/2---- +570 (15% chance to make it)

The implied probability between the two is 4%, even if the odds drop all the way down to +350 (which would def make a few piss down their leg) takes it from 19% chance to 22% chance. I'd start worrying around +165/170 that puts Miami at a 40+% chance of making it. I love how some down play the odds (probably because they don't gamble or truly understand it) but "Vegas" doesn't just give out free money....here is 3X/4X your money.....congrats! Is a knee slapper to me.

This is all true, but Vegas simply sets the line and is done after that.

The action determines the movement and final number, and that is solely based on the public’s perception of what will actually happen through their tickets.

Since this is essentially a “futures” bet, it is a little more nuanced than a single game line. The Miami number was absolutely astronomical a few weeks ago, but continues to keep moving towards even money because the probability of them getting in keeps going up and people are betting accordingly.

Things a little different than a 1 point swing after people hammer a team from one direction.


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[rtrn2glory]

I'm actually becoming more concerned that if Duke wins then they will definitely let Miami jump us to make sure they have a ACC representative even if Tech wins.

 

[PutuporShutup]

I still think what's not being talked about enough is that Miami and ND are clearly 2 of the top 10 teams in the country and one or both may not make it in. That's absurd

Tulane - Boat raced by the ole miss the only power 4 team they played
JMU - only power 4 team they played they lost by 14
BYU and TT are capable teams but have not played anyone out of the Big 12 and it's a week conference.

College football needs to play more big games, to do that, you can't reward one or two of the tallest midgets. The 12 best teams need to be in. ND is top 5 team, and Miami is a top 10 team.

The conversation shouldn't even be about ND/Miami.

This joke needs to stop. There's too much money and impact involved to allow such moronic decision making to happen.

 

[allenm5333]

I'm actually becoming more concerned that if Duke wins then they will definitely let Miami jump us to make sure they have a ACC representative even if Tech wins.

Yes. We want Virginia W, Boise State W, Georgia W, Tech W

 

[Kingbish01]

This is all true, but Vegas simply sets the line and is done after that.

The action determines the movement and final number, and that is solely based on the public’s perception of what will actually happen through their tickets.


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Correct, but they set the "opening line" with crazy accuracy though...Prime example ND/Stanford opened at 29.5 moved to 32.5 (I bet it here SMH) and ND won by 29. Bama/AU opened at 7.5 game was decided by 7. Of course you'll have some that aren't accurate just look at Vandy game. But I'd argue it's more likely it gets out of hand with the small spreads more often. "Vegas" is pretty good at getting the public as close to 50/50 as possible. But pro tip, if you ever see 80% of the public on one side, you better get on the other...same is if you were in a canoe...lol Because the strip wasn't built on 80% of the public making money.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I'm actually becoming more concerned that if Duke wins then they will definitely let Miami jump us to make sure they have a ACC representative even if Tech wins.

I sincerely hope Clemson and FSU leave for the SEC and the conference collapses like a dying star.


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[Huntr]

And truthfully I'll repeat something I said an hour ago.... If ND didn't want to be in this spot they wouldn't have fallen down 21-7 late in the 3rd in Miami, they wouldn't have gave up 40+ at home to A&M...We are passionate and we love our Irish, but they failed on both major tests this year. DO BETTER

And this is why I'm not that worked up about the playoffs and who's in or out. People are arguing about the 10th or 8th ranked teams in the country. Fuck a bunch of that.

They lost. They may have fucked themselves in the process. That can happen.

Fix your slow season start problem that you may have. Maybe adjust your schedule. Maybe change coaching or training or problem solving approaches. Do what you need to do.

Winning is hard, figure it out.

 

[Dale]

 

[Kingbish01]

And this is why I'm not that worked up about the playoffs and who's in or out. People are arguing about the 10th or 8th ranked teams in the country. Fuck a bunch of that.

They lost. They may have fucked themselves in the process. That can happen.

Fix your slow season start problem that you may have. Maybe adjust your schedule. Maybe change coaching or training or problem solving approaches. Do what you need to do.

Winning is hard, figure it out.

100% agreed, I'm just pissed because this year ND has a legit shot to win it all. This isn't years past that we wanted to get in, knowing we couldn't run with Bama/Clemson/UGA or OSU.

Anyone else wish that Kick return late in the 4th by A&M stood?

 

[IrishSteelhead]

And this is why I'm not that worked up about the playoffs and who's in or out. People are arguing about the 10th or 8th ranked teams in the country. Fuck a bunch of that.

They lost. They may have fucked themselves in the process. That can happen.

Fix your slow season start problem that you may have. Maybe adjust your schedule. Maybe change coaching or training or problem solving approaches. Do what you need to do.

Winning is hard, figure it out.

The other side: Even great teams need luck from time to time.

Miami made the circus catch of all catches to tip the scales, A&M was treated to a botched snap and egregious missed call on the play of the game.

We had zero luck in those moments, and it happens to everyone.

No excuses, you make your own luck, don’t be in that position where an insanely rare play can sink you, but everyone is the recipient of both good and bad juju from time to time, and the bad can create situations like this.


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[IrishSteelhead]

100% agreed, I'm just pissed because this year ND has a legit shot to win it all. This isn't years past that we wanted to get in, knowing we couldn't run with Bama/Clemson/UGA or OSU.

Anyone else wish that Kick return late in the 4th by A&M stood?

I’m still more hung up on wishing a quarterback could compete a 3 yard pass from that game. Sorry, not sorry.


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[jprue24]

I still think what's not being talked about enough is that Miami and ND are clearly 2 of the top 10 teams in the country and one or both may not make it in. That's absurd

Tulane - Boat raced by the ole miss the only power 4 team they played
JMU - only power 4 team they played they lost by 14
BYU and TT are capable teams but have not played anyone out of the Big 12 and it's a week conference.

College football needs to play more big games, to do that, you can't reward one or two of the tallest midgets. The 12 best teams need to be in. ND is top 5 team, and Miami is a top 10 team.

The conversation shouldn't even be about ND/Miami.

This joke needs to stop. There's too much money and impact involved to allow such moronic decision making to happen.

The B12 is not weaker than the ACC and that is a data point against Miami. The Big12 dominated the ACC on the field.


I've banged the B12 drum, not because I think it is good, but because the data is there for the committee to say the conference is deserving of 2 teams.

 

[GowerND11]

My only gripe with the system to the point I'd call it broken is why must they put in James Madison/North Texas or Tulane. Those three teams have ZERO chance of winning 4 games in a row against a big program, so it's just pointless. What does putting Tulane in and leaving out Miami prove? That a team like OSU essentially gets two byes.

"But what about the kids at JMU that went 11-1 they deserve a chance"

I'd say... "No, they don't, if your kid really wanted to compete for a natty...tell him to work harder and go somewhere that he can actually compete for one...because JMU making the playoffs isn't truly them competing for a Natty"

Devil's advocate here: Let's scrap March Madness then too. Only 16 teams deserve to be there.

If we are going to have a playoff this large, we need to include the G5 teams whether we all like it or not.

 

[Kingbish01]

Devil's advocate here: Let's scrap March Madness then too. Only 16 teams deserve to be there.

If we are going to have a playoff this large, we need to include the G5 teams whether we all like it or not.

Throw 90 teams in the football playoff I'm fine with JMU making it...LOL