2025 College Football Playoffs

[SDIrishFan]

They have always “stared at the records”. That is literally how it has always worked. 12-0 teams sit higher than 11-1, 10-2, 9-3. That’s how it works.

Your problem isn’t the Ohio State loss, it’s the Florida loss… stop being so dense.

 

[Bane]

All fair, but if Bama jumps us and BYU loses, there will no longer be a buffer between us and Miami. And I do hear you on the "they've already put us in the same tier" stuff. I just think it's a lot different when the rankings are back to back. It just would not make sense to then not use H2H.

Obviously hoping I'm wrong. Because it'll be a damn shame to not have a chance at the championship with this team because 1) CJ took forever (in fall camp) to convince Denbrock he's capable; 2) the defense throwing a fit that their coach left them before trusting the new coach; 3) the SEC refs cheated us

All we can do is wait for tomorrow and then wait for Saturday.

 

[IrishBoognish]

 

[GATTACA!]

Im starting the Dua Lipa to my bedroom campaign.

 

[T-Boone]

They have always “stared at the records”. That is literally how it has always worked. 12-0 teams sit higher than 11-1, 10-2, 9-3. That’s how it works.

Your problem isn’t the Ohio State loss, it’s the Florida loss… stop being so dense.

Exactly, the committee could just explain that. The OSU game was probably one of their better performances.

 

[T-Boone]

All fair, but if Bama jumps us and BYU loses, there will no longer be a buffer between us and Miami. And I do hear you on the "they've already put us in the same tier" stuff. I just think it's a lot different when the rankings are back to back. It just would not make sense to then not use H2H.

Obviously hoping I'm wrong. Because it'll be a damn shame to not have a chance at the championship with this team because 1) CJ took forever (in fall camp) to convince Denbrock he's capable; 2) the defense throwing a fit that their coach left them before trusting the new coach; 3) the SEC refs cheated us

4. Jagusah stacking his scooter.

 

[Big23Head]

Does it really mean Bama jumps ND or does it mean Bama is in win or lose because they made the SEC championship game and won’t get penalized for it. I get those are strong odds indicating a jump is possible.

 

[Guyjin37]

Does it really mean Bama jumps ND or does it mean Bama is in win or lose because they made the SEC championship game and won’t get penalized for it. I get those are strong odds indicating a jump is possible.

Yep that’s what it means. I think we’re more likely to jump OK than Bama is to jump us.

 

[GATTACA!]

Does it really mean Bama jumps ND or does it mean Bama is in win or lose because they made the SEC championship game and won’t get penalized for it. I get those are strong odds indicating a jump is possible.

If they don't jump us this week and BYU wins that would mean they would have to jump us after a loss.

 

[rtrn2glory]

Bama jumping us would be baseless and show how flawed the system really is.

 

[BrianWalsh]

Just so I have this straight: ND drops out because Miami ran up the score against Pitt, Alabama limped past a bad Auburn team, Oklahoma limped past a bad LSU team, BYU beat Central Florida and ND beat down Stanford? What a world. Last weekend should have moved the needle zero.

 

[stlnd01]

Bama jumping us would be baseless and show how flawed the system really is.

Especially if they then can not fall with a loss - especially if it's a decisive one. I understand not heavily penalizing Texas and Penn State last year. This year I wouldn't drop Indiana to like 10th if they lose to Ohio State.

But in Bama's case, you're talking about a bubble team to start with, who's only making the SECCG by virtue of tiebreakers over two teams with superior overall records. And the argument is not only can they not move down if they lose the game but we're going to pre-emptively move them UP (on the heels of a narrow win over a team with a losing record) to protect them from being boxed out in case a different team wins its game?

That really doesn't make any sense. They should stay where they are, and if they lose to Georgia by more than a touchdown they should probably drop behind Miami.

 

[BeauBenken]

Does it really mean Bama jumps ND or does it mean Bama is in win or lose because they made the SEC championship game and won’t get penalized for it. I get those are strong odds indicating a jump is possible.

I don't think this conference championship thing not affecting you will be shown to be false this year. A big win in one will move you up, a drubbing will move you down or out. And I doubt each one is a close game. They will need to rely on some of these as data points.

Clearly the committee has been looking at MOV. Close losses against good teams are seen as arguably better than close wins against bad teams.

Side note: it still confuses me how people can clamor for playing in a conference when the issue with figuring out the best teams in these conferences is specifically because the conferences are now too large for everyone to play each other.

Maybe each conference should have its own playoff! Oh wait...

 

[The Backer]

Thus far, the committee has stuck to its guns and has been pretty honest. My feeling is Alabama stays at 10 tonight. They stay at 10 if they lose because their resume is still quite a bit better than the next cluster of teams. The simulated BCS has the at 0.66 and the next group is around 0.55 which is a pretty big drop off.

 

[stlnd01]

I don't think this conference championship thing not affecting you will be shown to be false this year. A big win in one will move you up, a drubbing will move you down or out. And I doubt each one is a close game. They will need to rely on some of these as data points.

Clearly the committee has been looking at MOV. Close losses against good teams are seen as arguably better than close wins against bad teams.

Side note: it still confuses me how people can clamor for playing in a conference when the issue with figuring out the best teams in these conferences is specifically because the conferences are now too large for everyone to play each other.

Maybe each conference should have its own playoff! Oh wait...

I think (just based on observation) that this is a big and underrated factor in their thinking. IMO, the committee want to create a compelling and competitive tournament. If you show you belong on the field with other playoff-caliber teams (as we have), even in a loss, you'll get the benefit of the doubt in a close call. If you struggle to put away teams that are not good, you won't.

It's why, as Boone said, losing close to Ohio State game is probably a mark in Texas' favor, while barely beating Mississippi State is a mark against them. And why close losses to Miami and A&M are better than close losses to SMU and Louisville.

So if Bama and BYU get rolled on Saturday, what is the argument they won't get rolled in the playoffs too?

 

[peadeam]

Excuse my ignorance as I try to stay away from gambling but why is everyone’s interpretation of the odds that Alabama jumps us and not that they are a near lock because they are in the SEC championship? Also, am I to believe that the committee leaks info before they meet so these oddsmakers know more than any of us? This isn’t like betting on game outcomes, it’s like placing a bet on jury trial

 

[EvilleIrish]

Excuse my ignorance as I try to stay away from gambling but why is everyone’s interpretation of the odds that Alabama jumps us and not that they are a near lock because they are in the SEC championship? Also, am I to believe that the committee leaks info before they meet so these oddsmakers know more than any of us? This isn’t like betting on game outcomes, it’s like placing a bet on jury trial

I think people underestimate the amount of information these books have at their disposal. They’re not in the business of losing money.

 

[KPENN]

I think people underestimate the amount of information these books have at their disposal. They’re not in the business of losing money.

 

[Irish#1]

Plus there is a war between the Momos/Crumbl Cookie and Penn St. over BYU's HC going on right now. Hopefully that has them good and distracted.

Didn't seem to bother Ole Miss players.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Eville Irish's Rankings:
1. OSU
2. IN
3. GA
4. TT
5. OR
6. MS
7. TAM
8. OK
9. AL
10. MIA
11. BYU
12. Tulane
13. North Texas
14. Virginia
15. Vandy
16. ND

 

[Irish#1]

Good news fellas. I found the formula the committee uses.

 

[Dale]

I think people underestimate the amount of information these books have at their disposal. They’re not in the business of losing money.

I would potentially make a lot more money from the books betting a ND - No prop than Yes right now, explain that then?

 

[ND88]

IU has not played a world beater schedule, but they are legit. They destroyed Illinois as bad as we did Syracuse. And Illinois was a top ten team with playoff aspirations at the time. That’s no joke

I hate to agree with this overall, but that PSU game was very suspect.

 

[Kingbish01]

I would potentially make a lot more money from the books betting a ND - No prop than Yes right now, explain that then?

You'd make more money because it's less likely to happen....if I'm understanding what you're saying.

 

[ND88]

Also, camera crews need to stop zooming in on Cignetti's nostrils when they interview him. We've seen enough. Go with the wide scope.

 

[EvilleIrish]

I think the worry now is that the committee was banking on an upset to avoid the ND Miami head to head. Probably unavoidable at this point.

 

[NDFAN2008]

I think the worry now is that the committee was banking on an upset to avoid the ND Miami head to head. Probably unavoidable at this point.

Not really if Bama loses they get left out, why are they anymore deserving than Texas? If you have 3 losses you shouldn't be in simple as that

 

[EvilleIrish]

Not really if Bama loses they get left out, why are they anymore deserving than Texas? If you have 3 losses you shouldn't be in simple as that

Bama is not getting left out. The argument is a non starter.

 

[irishjim]

Honestly, the committee is set up for failure by weekly rankings and the fact they mentioned conference championship game participants don't get severely affected. Bama should absolutely be out of playoffs if they lose but I am not sure the committee wants to changed the precedence of last year, especially when Bama was left out.

I get the transparency but they should probably should be clear that every game, all season matters, and stated that Bama, while ranked 10th, needed help to secure spot.

 

[Kingbish01]

Not going the right direction, still believe it's all down to BYU