Committee makes up their own rules. If they want us in there, they’ll keep BYU between ND/Miami and not penalize them for a conf champ loss.
In short yes. You bet 100 for them to miss the playoffs and if you're right you win 1800. The Bellagio wasn't built on a bunch of gamblers winning.
Does Vegas really get much action on these though? They seem a bit narrow in scope.
I wouldn't bet a +1800 that's a donation.
But thats based on data, past performances predicting future success. This is based off decisions made by a handful of humans in a closed room.
That is true, but odds are odds. If you're feeling lucky, a 1k bet wins you 18 grand. I just know it would take a marshall type plane situation with....I'm not even gonna say it...lol
Again, FD and BK are not "Vegas." The Westgate Superbook or The Bellagio's Sportsbook isn't a big player in CFB futures. As I believe Dale mentioned, the idea that "Vegas" stands to lose a ton of money on niche CFB futures betting and thus would never post odds without some sort of smoky backroom deal being worked out is laughable. Even on DK or FD this is probably not huge action. They probably make more money on random NFL game prop bets than they ever do on OU vs ND vs Alabama nerdy playoff odds bets.
I see your point, I've just been a lifelong gambler and sniping a +1800 bet doesn't happen. But if you think somehow OU is left out, and you have some extra cash and you're a lucky dude...you'd be crazy not to bet it at those odds.
I use "Vegas" as a broad term for big bookie or the house.
This would completely change things. It halves our chances of making the playoffs. We'd go from making it in with either BYU or Alabama losing to only making it in with a BYU loss.
Which hasn't really changed nor will it even if we go to 10.
This ignores that last Tuesday they already stated they directly compared us and determined they felt we were the better team and Dinich stated there is no magic number for Miami to get to to suddenly activate the Head to Head Override Protocol. They're in our tier now and have already been evaluated and the head to head was taken into account and noted. And they were still 2 slots behind us.
True, but Kirby is like 1-8 vs Alabama, it was always a dicey proposition to rely on UGA to come through. Really, the B12 title game is where our fate lies and that hasn't changed.
I feel games will always reign supreme, but who knows anymore. Google "Polymarkets" those prop bets are taking over big time.
Plus there is a war between the Momos/Crumbl Cookie and Penn St. over BYU's HC going on right now. Hopefully that has them good and distracted.
I'm not saying a flip absolutely won't happen, CFB is just a soap opera/beauty pageant for men so any number of nonsensical things can happen, but I agree that I just don't see the logic in swapping us. Especially since the committee has consistently loved us, spoken very highly of us, and has (correctly) ranked us ahead of Miami despite the Miami Crybaby Industrial Complex raging for weeks about it.
Yeah, those guys definitely know about decisions being made by “a handful of guys in a room”.
This is what we hope for at the end of the day. Hosting a game is nice but the matchups and path is more important. Give me a coachless team, an unproven team, and then a potential SEC team.
Yep.
All fair, but if Bama jumps us and BYU loses, there will no longer be a buffer between us and Miami. And I do hear you on the "they've already put us in the same tier" stuff. I just think it's a lot different when the rankings are back to back. It just would not make sense to then not use H2H.
