2025 College Football Playoffs

Bane

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I have way more issue with Duke getting in than Tulane. I don't get how we can restrict the G6 with some ranking requirement but not the ACC this year, for instance, given how many competitive advantages there are in the P4 conferences.

Not to mention most teams are probably too scared to schedule the JMUs and Tulanes of the world, anyway, so it's really tough for them to truly be ranked top 15. Not that it can't happen (Cincy).

I'd prefer to see auto-bids stripped entirely but if we are going to be restricting G5 we need to hold the P4 to the same standard. I get that the instances will be rare (UVA vs. Duke - no Miami, FSU, Clemson, for example), but this year is a glaring example of why we should have some sort of checks and balances for auto-bids if they were to remain.
Well you can just make the requirement universal. Maybe just word it something like, "no conference champion is eligible for an autobid unless they are ranked within the top 16."

But really, that all gets sort of messy, just kill the autobids.
 

ChunkyParrot

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I have less of an issue with the autobids than I do with the 4th/5th best teams in a conference getting in. The horse is out of the barn with the BIG and SEC having all the power, but I struggle to find a reason to include those teams. If your conference is too big to identify a clear top three, that should be a you problem.
 

Jiggafini19Deux

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Not sure how anyone is complaining about indianas quality at this point
I'm not complaining about anything. Simply pointing out that they have a lot of seniors on their roster. 4th, 5th and 6th year variety.

UVA has the most in America. BYU just has mid 20s guys.
 

Dale

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I said earlier in this thread or another that Bama odds don’t mean they are a lock, seems that could he incorrect. Now heavily juiced to make it. That would imply Alabama moves ahead of Notre Dame tomorrow, likely will justify with A&Ms loss. Would make it come down to the BYU game.

Or the oddsmakers are wrong. I just don’t see them moving Alabama UP after a loss. So they will have to do it this week.
 

MPClinton22

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I said earlier in this thread or another that Bama odds don’t mean they are a lock, seems that could he incorrect. Now heavily juiced to make it. That would imply Alabama moves ahead of Notre Dame tomorrow, likely will justify with A&Ms loss. Would make it come down to the BYU game.

Or the oddsmakers are wrong. I just don’t see them moving Alabama UP after a loss. So they will have to do it this week.
The odds really just reflect that Bama has a guaranteed pathway via the CCG, PLUS are still relatively unlikely to get bumped out with a loss in that game - because their biggest threat (BYU) isn't likely to win their CCG. At least, that's how I'd interpret that
 

MPClinton22

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12, no auto bids would be perfect.

16 & current auto bids would be fine.

Any more automatic bids than that and they will fuck it up.
If we want auto-bids, these huge conferences need to split into divisions again where they play everyone in their division to make the conference championship game. This current model is ridiculous, with the unbalanced schedules. And maybe shuffle up the divisions every few years based teams' performance during those years to try to keep things balanced between divisions.
 

Bane

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I said earlier in this thread or another that Bama odds don’t mean they are a lock, seems that could he incorrect. Now heavily juiced to make it. That would imply Alabama moves ahead of Notre Dame tomorrow, likely will justify with A&Ms loss. Would make it come down to the BYU game.

Or the oddsmakers are wrong. I just don’t see them moving Alabama UP after a loss. So they will have to do it this week.
I just don't see anyway you move Alabama up over us after they barely squeaked out a win over a bad Auburn team. That game was tied late into the 4th and then Auburn was driving deep into Bama territory to potentially tie it up again. If the committee is so big on "game control" there's no way they make that move.
 

Bane

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The odds really just reflect that Bama has a guaranteed pathway via the CCG, PLUS are still relatively unlikely to get bumped out with a loss in that game - because their biggest threat (BYU) isn't likely to win their CCG. At least, that's how I'd interpret that
Plus, it could reflect the fact that Kirby Smart/UGA has struggled the past 10 years quite badly against Alabama.
 

Some Irish Bloke

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Bet MGM has ND at -375 to make the playoff. It was -5000 a few weeks ago. Crazy.

Also sort of hilarious that they have ND as the 4th best odds to win a title at +900 (OSU +160, IU +400, UGA +800, and aTm, Oregon and TTU all +1000).

Miami is at +800 to make it FWIW. Vegas always knows.
 

MPClinton22

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Bet MGM has ND at -375 to make the playoff. It was -5000 a few weeks ago. Crazy.

Also sort of hilarious that they have ND as the 4th best odds to win a title at +900 (OSU +160, IU +400, UGA +800, and aTm, Oregon and TTU all +1000).

Miami is at +800 to make it FWIW. Vegas either know something or is trolling ND fans and others into betting @ -375.
It's crazy because all that had to happen was either chalk - Bama beating OU and eliminating them - or after that, one singular upset of OU, Bama, TTU, Oregon or Ole Miss in the last 2 weeks. The fact that it's all gone perfectly to provide a pathway for us to be left out is really insane.
 

Some Irish Bloke

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It's crazy because all that had to happen was either chalk - Bama beating OU and eliminating them - or after that, one singular upset of OU, Bama, TTU, Oregon or Ole Miss in the last 2 weeks. The fact that it's all gone perfectly to provide a pathway for us to be left out is really insane.
Yep. BYU/Bama parlay is +1000 rn on FD, FWIW.
 

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I have way more issue with Duke getting in than Tulane. I don't get how we can restrict the G6 with some ranking requirement but not the ACC this year, for instance, given how many competitive advantages there are in the P4 conferences.

Not to mention most teams are probably too scared to schedule the JMUs and Tulanes of the world, anyway, so it's really tough for them to truly be ranked top 15. Not that it can't happen (Cincy).

I'd prefer to see auto-bids stripped entirely but if we are going to be restricting G5 we need to hold the P4 to the same standard. I get that the instances will be rare (UVA vs. Duke - no Miami, FSU, Clemson, for example), but this year is a glaring example of why we should have some sort of checks and balances for auto-bids if they were to remain.
Duke isn't guaranteed a spot if they win. In fact I'd be shocked if they were included.

You can't have a 5 loss team in the playoffs. There will be 2 G5s in that case.
 

Some Irish Bloke

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Duke isn't guaranteed a spot if they win. In fact I'd be shocked if they were included.

You can't have a 5 loss team in the playoffs. There will be 2 G5s in that case.
Which is also a joke; it should just go to the next at-large, not a G5 champion IMO. No bias either. If ND was 11-1 and squarely in the top 5, I'd still say Bama or UT are more deserving than lower ranked of JMU and the winner of NT/Tulane.
 

NotKoon

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I actually think Miami would have a better chance of getting in if they were an independent. I think the messaging from the committee to the ACC was we believe Miami should be in the playoff, find a way to get them into the championship game, but you are not gaming the system into two spots
 

NDMatt91

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I actually think Miami would have a better chance of getting in if they were an independent. I think the messaging from the committee to the ACC was we believe Miami should be in the playoff, find a way to get them into the championship game, but you are not gaming the system into two spots
If the ACC really cared, wouldn't their officials have already swapped Miami in for Duke?
 

NumbersGuy0520

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I said earlier in this thread or another that Bama odds don’t mean they are a lock, seems that could he incorrect. Now heavily juiced to make it. That would imply Alabama moves ahead of Notre Dame tomorrow, likely will justify with A&Ms loss. Would make it come down to the BYU game.

Or the oddsmakers are wrong. I just don’t see them moving Alabama UP after a loss. So they will have to do it this week.
If Alabama stays at 10 and doesn’t get faulted for a loss, they only miss if they lose to Georgia and if Texas Tech loses to BYU. Calling these roughly 50-50 and 80-20, that gives them .2*.5 = 10% chance of being left out, assuming they stay at 10.

Vegas has yes at -3000 and no at +1120. Implies 97% yes and 8% no. Call it 95%, 5% removing vig.

Yeah Vegas is slightly accounting for the fact that they somehow move up and that it doesn’t even matter.

I don’t think the expectation is they move ahead of ND, but them odds reflect the small likelihood.

Similarly, yes playoffs for ND at -420 is low compared to what we should be (~90% based on the conf championship games) because there is a chance we move back.

At the end of the day, I’d bet and hope that FD is just making their best guess on how the committee will rank and assigning associated probabilities. Personally, I think and hope there’s a chance we move to 8 that is currently being undervalued.
 

peadeam

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I remember that being a very specific thing that was stated last year, but I don't know if it will also apply this year. I agree with you Philly, but I could also see them putting Miami ahead of BYU this week because BYU is a win and in so their position doesn't really matter this week. But that still doesn't put them right next to us unless Bama jumps us, which just seems very unlikely.
So there’s the problem in my eyes. If Bama beats Georgia I promise you they jump us. But the committee has stated they won’t punish team that lose the conference championship games. But they’ll reward them? Can’t have it both ways
 

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Which is also a joke; it should just go to the next at-large, not a G5 champion IMO. No bias either. If ND was 11-1 and squarely in the top 5, I'd still say Bama or UT are more deserving than lower ranked of JMU and the winner of NT/Tulane.
The NCAA doesn't see a distinction between the P4 and the G5. As far as they're concerned all the conferences are equal. No one could have imagined the ACC would would fuck everything up by A) being complete ass and B) rigging their championship game rules to try and game the system to get more teams in. Which has backfired spectacularly. No one would be complaining about Miami being given a spot if they were playing this weekend.

For the record I was against AQ from the start. Conference champions should always be in with 12 teams regardless as long as they aren't terrible.
 

Bane

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So there’s the problem in my eyes. If Bama beats Georgia I promise you they jump us. But the committee has stated they won’t punish team that lose the conference championship games. But they’ll reward them? Can’t have it both ways
I had the same issue last year when the committee refused to move PSU behind us after their loss in the B1GCG. PSU should have never been ahead of us to begin with and I thought it was bullshit that they wouldn't "punish" PSU for losing, but would have in fact rewarded them with a bye had they won.
 

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So there’s the problem in my eyes. If Bama beats Georgia I promise you they jump us. But the committee has stated they won’t punish team that lose the conference championship games. But they’ll reward them? Can’t have it both ways
They get in automatically if they win. Jumping is irrelevant. They are already behind us so if they don't win, even not being punished, they won't move past us.
 

peadeam

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They get in automatically if they win. Jumping is irrelevant. They are already behind us so if they don't win, even not being punished, they won't move past us.
I don’t agree that jumping us is irrelevant. That would clearly be rewarding their win
 

jpachuta33

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Any chance we jump Oklahoma? If so, that ensures that we are in and there is no “doomsday” scenario.
 
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