2025 College Football Playoffs

[arndtjc]

ND started the day -2000 Yes to make the playoffs and +920 to not make the playoffs

They’re currently -420 to make and +310 to miss. Disastrous weekend of outside results

EDIT: line moved to -400/+300 within the minute of posting this. Not good

EDIT 2: I misspoke. I saw Brad Powers’ bet slips from weeks past. We were like -700ish entering today

 

[IrishTusker]

Am I missing something? Today has been all chalk and continues to be - but all we’ve needed is TTU to win the big 12, right? Miami isn’t jumping us. Nothing has changed really. Yeah, an upset to not have to sweat the big 12 championship would have been nice. But that was always going to be the deciding game for us.

That's the issue, we don't know that.

 

[T-Boone]

Am I missing something? Today has been all chalk and continues to be - but all we’ve needed is TTU to win the big 12, right? Miami isn’t jumping us. Nothing has changed really. Yeah, an upset to not have to sweat the big 12 championship would have been nice. But that was always going to be the deciding game for us.

Miami could well jump ND.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Am I missing something? Today has been all chalk and continues to be - but all we’ve needed is TTU to win the big 12, right? Miami isn’t jumping us. Nothing has changed really. Yeah, an upset to not have to sweat the big 12 championship would have been nice. But that was always going to be the deciding game for us.

I think the usual suspects are nattering nabobs of negativity, and just can't believe we still have a good shot of making the playoffs.

 

[MPClinton22]

Miami could well jump ND.

They obviously could, but a roughly equivalent performance against Pitt being the reason why would be completely asinine. The committee has shown they respect this team more than that.

Obviously if we look like trash against Stanford it’s a different discussion.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Miami could well jump ND.

ND could jump Oklahoma, Texas could jump Vandy, Vandy could jump BYU, will the madness ever end??????????

 

[DillonHall]

Last year the losers dropped, they just didn't drop out. We don't know what will happen this year.

Yeah we'll have to see. But I think people are oversimplifying it by just stating 3-loss Bama is automatically out. I don't think that third loss will count because it'd come in a bonus game

 

[NDRock]

Am I missing something? Today has been all chalk and continues to be - but all we’ve needed is TTU to win the big 12, right? Miami isn’t jumping us. Nothing has changed really. Yeah, an upset to not have to sweat the big 12 championship would have been nice. But that was always going to be the deciding game for us.

Says who? It’s a freaking committee and they can change their minds if they want. ND could look terrible tonight, Miami has looked really good of late, and our best win could lose to UCLA. Not worth worrying one way or the other.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Yeah we'll have to see. But I think people are oversimplifying it by just stating 3-loss Bama is automatically out. I don't think that third loss will count because it'd come in a bonus game

Is that you, Greg Sankey?

 

[pumpdog20]

They obviously could, but a roughly equivalent performance against Pitt being the reason why would be completely asinine. The committee has shown they respect this team more than that.

Obviously if we look like trash against Stanford it’s a different discussion.

But an equivalent performance may be looked at as playing as well as ND, and then you go with H2H.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Yeah we'll have to see. But I think people are oversimplifying it by just stating 3-loss Bama is automatically out. I don't think that third loss will count because it'd come in a bonus game

3 loss Bama may not be out, but they aren't in ahead of ND.

 

[DillonHall]

But this is exactly what I said at the start of the day - if Oregon, Bama, Oklahoma, and Miami all win, we're going to be in an uneasy position just waiting to see what the committee does. It's completely out of our hands

Obviously at the start of the season, Miami was ahead of us. But they struggled right when the rankings started coming out so ND was ranked ahead of Miami. However, Miami has looked more like the start of the season down the stretch and our resumes have become much more similar. So they may use the head-to-head data point to make the final decision

 

[OhioIrish]

The only way out of this mess that is hurtling toward the committee is to drop Oklahoma. They are CLEARLY not a playoff caliber team and their performance today gave the committee the ammo it needs to drop them behind ND (assuming we win). Most reasonable 8-11 ranking, imo - ND, Miami, Oklahoma, Bama.

 

[MPClinton22]

Says who? It’s a freaking committee and they can change their minds if they want. ND could look terrible tonight, Miami has looked really good of late, and our best win could lose to UCLA. Not worth worrying one way or the other.

Miami looked mid against a coachless VT last week while we put up 70 on a P4 team. I understand the concern - but the committee has pretty much made their thoughts on ND v Miami clear. We just need to match those expectations against Stanford.

And sure, the committee could do a total about-face, they’re human and unpredictable. I’m just not anticipating that/worrying about it/doomposting about it.

I do wish I took a parlay of not a single upset happening that would have helped us though

 

[vicknd1982]

Cal beating smu not gonna help miami

 

[MPClinton22]

But an equivalent performance may be looked at as playing as well as ND, and then you go with H2H.

They already had similar data points with NC State. Miami has worse losses and those aren’t just dropping off their resume.

 

[DillonHall]

3 loss Bama may not be out, but they aren't in ahead of ND.

I don't envy the committee. Either Bama, ND, or Miami is gonna be pissed but someone's gotta be left out. I honestly can't make a strong argument for any of those teams to get left out

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I don't envy the committee. Either Bama, ND, or Miami is gonna be pissed but someone's gotta be left out. I honestly can't make a strong argument for any of those teams to get left out

Its Miami

 

[MPClinton22]

I don't envy the committee. Either Bama, ND, or Miami is gonna be pissed but someone's gotta be left out. I honestly can't make a strong argument for any of those teams to get left out

Miami has genuinely bad losses, and Bama has a truly awful loss and will have 2 more if they aren’t the auto-bid. Both are better arguments to keep them out than anything against us. Hence why we are already above both.

 

[Canes4theWin]

Some may not want to hear this, but Miami and A&M aren't anything special and all ND had to do was split with them. If they did that, they'd already be locked into the Playoff.

Miami is good enough to win the CFP

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

I just don't see how Alabama gets left out if they make it to the SEC championship game. It's anybody's guess, but I don't think the committee is going to punish a team that much for losing the conference championship game

The last spot is gonna come down to ND and Miami (assuming BYU loses), and I have an uneasy feeling about how that's gonna turn out

FWIW, FanDuel is taking their best guess as to how the committee will deal with Miami, and they have them as -2000 to miss the playoffs

 

[FOTY977]

Miami is good enough to win the CFP

Welcome back! This should last long.

 

[DillonHall]

Miami has genuinely bad losses, and Bama has a truly awful loss and will have 2 more if they aren’t the auto-bid. Both are better arguments than against us. Hence why we are already above both.

Miami literally beat ND. And ND lacks quality wins compared to Bama. It sucks, but if you asked everyone on IE in the preseason, 95% would have said the head to head winner should get into the playoff when the resumes are reasonably comparable

 

[IrishSteelhead]

FWIW, FanDuel is taking their best guess as to how the committee will deal with Miami, and they have them as -2000 to miss the playoffs

That is roughly a 95% chance of missing out, per the odds


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GATTACA!]

I just don't think it's that simple. I think the committee views championship games as "extra credit" opportunities. Only upside, no downside. Otherwise, teams would be lobbying to not play in the game. Ole Miss and Oklahoma get to just sit home next weekend because of how the tiebreakers worked out. Bama shouldn't get punished for finishing 2nd instead of 3rd or 4th

They are behind us. Unless they pass us this week, you're saying that they will pass us after losing an additional game. That's not happening.

 

[Bane]

 

[DillonHall]

If I had to guess, I think ND and Bama will get in and Miami will be left out. But none of you would bet your lives that's what happens (unless you're nuts)

 

[IrishTusker]

Miami literally beat ND. And ND lacks quality wins compared to Bama. It sucks, but if you asked everyone on IE in the preseason, 95% would have said the head to head winner should get into the playoff when the resumes are reasonably comparable

Yeah, I mean, 1993 called. That's never been the rule that is actually applied.

 

[MPClinton22]

Miami literally beat ND. And ND lacks quality wins compared to Bama. It sucks, but if you asked everyone on IE in the preseason, 95% would have said the head to head winner should get into the playoff when the resumes are reasonably comparable

But they’re not comparable. SMU and Louisville are bad losses.

 

[DillonHall]

They are behind us. Unless they pass us this week, you're saying that they will pass us after losing an additional game. That's not happening.

It's definitely a weird situation with Miami in the middle of it. But they might just flip us with Bama in preparation of that move in the final rankings, especially if we look bad against Stanford.