Politics

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Boehner. Ryan. Kevie Kev Kev.

Gotta hand it to Pelosi. Relative to that trio, she made it look kinda easy.

 

[RDU Irish]

Being a dem in the house is the easiest job in the world as long as you don't vote first.

McCarthy sucks - I'll take gridlock over this shit.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Hopefully the R's offer up a moderate willing to deal in good faith with the dems and he gets the speakership without relying on the freedom caucus.

Here is to hoping…. It’s in their court. I’m not too hopeful though. The first thing the Speaker Pro Tem did was kick Nancy Pelosi of her hideaway while she is in California at Finesteins funeral. Priorities

 

[drayer54]

Hopefully the R's offer up a moderate willing to deal in good faith with the dems and he gets the speakership without relying on the freedom caucus.

No chance. I doubt a moderate prevails in this environment. The tension across the aisle after that stunt will only increase and someone who can please the idiot caucus will rise. We can’t have nice things.

The hard line of the party that demands everything be fixed now or totally shutdown to fix the problems and change things in a bold (crazy?) way are going to take the mic. We also have wanna be influencers in Congress. People who want to sell the brand. They got a few out last cycle, but have more work to do. McCarthy being unable to fix Washington on a narrow majority with a Democrat WH is a problem for some.

I’m sure we’ll throw Trump forward and double down on the stupidity to keep the Biden failures moving.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

More political retributions from the party of pathetic bedshitters. As I understand it the former speakers who remain in Congresss are sometimes allowed hideaways until they leave Congress. There isn’t any rea reason to punish Nancy or Steny by kicking them out and rekeying the hideaways.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

No chance. I doubt a moderate prevails in this environment. The tension across the aisle after that stunt will only increase and someone who can please the idiot caucus will rise. We can’t have nice things.

The hard line of the party that demands everything be fixed now or totally shutdown to fix the problems and change things in a bold (crazy?) way are going to take the mic. We also have wanna be influencers in Congress. People who want to sell the brand. They got a few out last cycle, but have more work to do. McCarthy being unable to fix Washington on a narrow majority with a Democrat WH is a problem for some.

I’m sure we’ll throw Trump forward and double down on the stupidity to keep the Biden failures moving.

Hannity and Gaetz are already on putting Trump forward for the Speaker. I’m pretty sure there is a rule in the 118th Congress rules against someone who is indicted having to step aside from the Speakership but I can just as easily count on them to argue the language of the rule and make it happen all the same.

 

[jprue24]

It’s not a stretch to say that nothing like this has happened before in our democracy. There is more going on than normal and it seems to be internal to the GOP but hey both sides something something.

It has never happened before. McCarthy is the first to be removed like this.

Haven't paid a ton of attention, but wasn't that what McCarthy did? Didn't he buck the freedom caucus and made a deal to avoid a shutdown, risking his own future as speaker? Wouldn't the fact that the Dem's helped oust McCarthy decrease the chances of the next Republican speaker making a deal? It seems like the Dem's chose political chaos over maintaining a speaker that was at least pragmatic enough to recognize a deal needed to be made? Do the Dem's think that the Republicans will really nominate a moderate to lead the House?

He did not do that with the freedom caucus. He agreed to future spending cuts and didn't follow through.

I've seen this idea that Dems should have saved McCarthy in other places from moderate conservates. McCarthy has given Democratics zero reasons to trust or save him. Just like with Gaetz, McCarthy made deals with the Democrats about spending that he didn't follow through on (Ukraine). After doing the right thing and not sacrificing a shutdown over Ukraine spending, McCarthy got on a Sunday show and blamed Dems for the disfunction in the Republican caucus. Dems did help, then he shit on the for it. He said there would be a vote on an impeachment hearings, only go back on that as well. So far those hearings are a joke.

Dems never thought McCarthy would be a good speaker and didn't vote for him in the 15 rounds of voting it took for him to get the job.

Since 2010, GOP speakers have been in increasingly precarious positions due to the make-up of their House caucus. Boehner said fuck it, Ryan quit politics, McCarthy tried to have it both ways and is probably going to quit politics.

McCarthy set the stage for this when he agreeded to allow only one member of the majority caucus to call for a vote to oust him. He gave the Freedom Caucus the power to do this and it's the Democratics fault/job to save him?

Let's see if they can get their shit together by next Wednesday

 

[drayer54]

Hannity and Gaetz are already on putting Trump forward for the Speaker. I’m pretty sure there is a rule in the 118th Congress rules against someone who is indicted having to step aside from the Speakership but I can just as easily count on them to argue the language of the rule and make it happen all the same.

Jim Jordan is odds on favorite. Trump doesn’t have 215 and it’s a stunt.

GOP has a chunk who are no-compromise ideological types who give zero craps about winning, power, strategy, or the long game. Plus a chunk ( I’d argue blue team has a few as well) who are in it for publicity and fame. You can’t manage those people, especially on a narrow majority. GOP needs to be more active in primaries, especially with idiots like Kari Lake jumping in.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

More political retributions from the party of pathetic bedshitters. As I understand it the former speakers who remain in Congresss are sometimes allowed hideaways until they leave Congress. There isn’t any rea reason to punish Nancy or Steny by kicking them out and rekeying the hideaways.

The Party of Nihilism. There is no serious intent on governing and solving problems. Spare me the litany of false equivalencies too.

 

[drayer54]

McCarthy set the stage for this when he agreeded to allow only one member of the majority caucus to call for a vote to oust him. He gave the Freedom Caucus the power to do this and it's the Democratics fault/job to save him?

Dems were in an interesting spot-

Drown out Gaetz and send a message that we’re not going to let idiots rule the house or let the GOP flail out in the open.

The risk is that they don’t like the replacement and they lose any ground for influence and bipartisanship. The problem solvers caucus is likely dead and moderate D’s cutoff after this.
The benefit is that they can pull fire alarms and wreck the economy under cover of R on R headlines and look like the party that can govern.

Fascinating times.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

It has never happened before. McCarthy is the first to be removed like this.

He did not do that with the freedom caucus. He agreed to future spending cuts and didn't follow through.

I've seen this idea that Dems should have saved McCarthy in other places from moderate conservates. McCarthy has given Democratics zero reasons to trust or save him. Just like with Gaetz, McCarthy made deals with the Democrats about spending that he didn't follow through on (Ukraine). After doing the right thing and not sacrificing a shutdown over Ukraine spending, McCarthy got on a Sunday show and blamed Dems for the disfunction in the Republican caucus. Dems did help, then he shit on the for it. He said there would be a vote on an impeachment hearings, only go back on that as well. So far those hearings are a joke.

Dems never thought McCarthy would be a good speaker and didn't vote for him in the 15 rounds of voting it took for him to get the job.

Since 2010, GOP speakers have been in increasingly precarious positions due to the make-up of their House caucus. Boehner said fuck it, Ryan quit politics, McCarthy tried to have it both ways and is probably going to quit politics.

McCarthy set the stage for this when he agreeded to allow only one member of the majority caucus to call for a vote to oust him. He gave the Freedom Caucus the power to do this and it's the Democratics fault/job to save him?

Let's see if they can get their shit together by next Wednesday

McCarthy's tenure in a nut shell:

McCarthy finally received a majority and became speaker on the 15th ballot on January 7, after making key concessions to some members of the right-wing Freedom Caucus, including a rule to allow a single House member to introduce a vote to remove the speaker, as well as granting Freedom Caucus members three seats on the influential Rules Committee. Additionally, it was the longest multi-ballot speaker election since 1859.

Oops. Those pesky Dems.

If the Republican majority can't figure this out, some may start to wonder could a speaker with bipartisan support arise from this mess? That's an unlikely situation but given how 2023 has unfolded the speculation will continue.

McCarthy, asked what advice he'd give the next speaker, was blunt: "Change the rules."

lol

 

[drayer54]

The Party of Nihilism. There is no serious intent on governing and solving problems. Spare me the litany of false equivalencies too.

No serious intent to open border, dump cash to Dem donors, ignore administration failures, and other “serious governing” we saw last session. Give me a break.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

My heart pumps piss for McCarthy, but I still can't believe George Fucking Santos is still a sitting member of the House. Wouldn't put it past his district re-electing him to another term next year.

As George Carlin once said, the public sucks.

 

[jprue24]

Dems were in an interesting spot-

Drown out Gaetz and send a message that we’re not going to let idiots rule the house or let the GOP flail out in the open.

The risk is that they don’t like the replacement and they lose any ground for influence and bipartisanship. The problem solvers caucus is likely dead and moderate D’s cutoff after this.
The benefit is that they can pull fire alarms and wreck the economy under cover of R on R headlines and look like the party that can govern.

Fascinating times.

I would never expect the GOP to help the Democratic Party fix an internal mess that has gotten out of control. Especially in the House where everyone is up for performance reviews every two year. Not much is permanent in there.

Real question, what has/had the "problem solves" caucus accomplished?

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Jim Jordan is odds on favorite. Trump doesn’t have 215 and it’s a stunt.

GOP has a chunk who are no-compromise ideological types who give zero craps about winning, power, strategy, or the long game. Plus a chunk ( I’d argue blue team has a few as well) who are in it for publicity and fame. You can’t manage those people, especially on a narrow majority. GOP needs to be more active in primaries, especially with idiots like Kari Lake jumping in.

Its all moot really..... the House is gonna flip to Dems this upcoming cycle almost assuredly, not only because people are fed up with the MAGA and unserious extremist GOP policies but also because several southern states have grossly unconstitutional district maps and are being forced to redraw them with new minority-based districts that will certainly go for Dems. Pretty sure Texas, SC, LA, GA (currently in litigation) and Alabama (already litigated and currently being redrawn now), and NC's map is completely fucked up but less likely to be redrawn for several reasons, WI (reformed SCOTUS in WI) will most certainly revisit their extremely gerrymandered maps and redraw them, NYs map will be redraw before 2024 as well and George Santos wont have as eat to come back to even if he survives his felony charges. All in all in could net +12 seats to Dems simply by having fair maps drawn. The GOP is in a terrible place right now and if they ride the Trump train.... well bye bish.

 

[jprue24]

Its all moot really..... the House is gonna flip to Dems this upcoming cycle almost assuredly, not only because people are fed up with the MAGA and unserious extremist GOP policies but also because several southern states have grossly unconstitutional district maps and are being forced to redraw them with new minority-based districts that will certainly go for Dems. Pretty sure Texas, SC, LA, GA (currently in litigation) and Alabama (already litigated and currently being redrawn now), and NC's map is completely fucked up but less likely to be redrawn for several reasons, WI (reformed SCOTUS in WI) will most certainly revisit their extremely gerrymandered maps and redraw them, NYs map will be redraw before 2024 as well and George Santos wont have as eat to come back to even if he survives his felony charges. All in all in could net +12 seats to Dems simply by having fair maps drawn. The GOP is in a terrible place right now and if they ride the Trump train.... well bye bish.

Don't forget to include the moderate NY GOP seats that are in +Biden counties

Edit- those maybe canceled out by moderate dems that beat idiot candidates (like in AK).

 

[jprue24]

I'm glad Pelosi and Jefferies are able to keep Dem outliers in line.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

My heart pumps piss for McCarthy, but I still can't believe George Fucking Santos is still a sitting member of the House. Wouldn't put it past his district re-electing him to another term next year.

As George Carlin once said, the public sucks.

New York Is Ordered by Appeals Court to Redraw House Map (possible +6 Shift in NY alone)

There are numerous states with map issues due to the GOP clearly gerrymandering and weakening democrat strongholds and minority voters. A new SCOTUS ruling that affected Alabama will almost certainly affect several states in the south adding a new minority district to each and taking away one from the GOP. Could be as many as 5 new seats from Tx, GA, SC, LA and Mississippi.

Florida is being litigated currently for breaking up its former minority district. Again this is almost certainly going to come back plus another one due to the SCOTUS ruling.

WI is likely to be fixed due to their new SCOTUS. Its essentially a 50/50 state but due to the extreme gerrymandering, nearly 70% of seats are GOP controlled. Easy to see 2-3 seats back in Dem control or at least vastly more competitive.

Some of this may not shake out before 2024 but most of it should.

 

[drayer54]

I would never expect the GOP to help the Democratic Party fix an internal mess that has gotten out of control. Especially in the House where everyone is up for performance reviews every two year. Not much is permanent in there.

Real question, what has/had the "problem solves" caucus accomplished?

Hard telling from here. In my brief stint of legislative work, we had the moderates who offered up votes to give the bill a ‘bi-partisan’ tag and then in turn got to influence the language. Leadership takes less risk because the bill is bipartisan and the minority gets to influence language and be in the room. Bi-partisan bills typically get moved to the agenda too. Lots of bills never break committee. You don’t get any of this when you have straight party voting. My guess is some stuff had this going on.
That’s likely going to stall.

It is what it is. Probably why they took her office back. I don’t blame Dems for not bailing out the gop mess. They could have let the drama play out in the motion to vacate and then saved it in the end to avoid getting a Jim Jordan. I also don’t blame the GOP for whatever petty shit they do to Gaetz and Dem leadership.

 

[jprue24]

GOP really leaning into "look what you made me do" in the fallout

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

New York Is Ordered by Appeals Court to Redraw House Map (possible +6 Shift in NY alone)

There are numerous states with map issues due to the GOP clearly gerrymandering and weakening democrat strongholds and minority voters. A new SCOTUS ruling that affected Alabama will almost certainly affect several states in the south adding a new minority district to each and taking away one from the GOP. Could be as many as 5 new seats from Tx, GA, SC, LA and Mississippi.

Florida is being litigated currently for breaking up its former minority district. Again this is almost certainly going to come back plus another one due to the SCOTUS ruling.

WI is likely to be fixed due to their new SCOTUS. Its essentially a 50/50 state but due to the extreme gerrymandering, nearly 70% of seats are GOP controlled. Easy to see 2-3 seats back in Dem control or at least vastly more competitive.

Some of this may not shake out before 2024 but most of it should.

The State Legislatures are going to fuck with all this any way they can. See Wisconsin. Wisconsin Republicans are already trying to impeach the new Supreme Court Justice and want to remove the state's head election official.

This is what happens when elections are lost. Just keep moving the goalposts and change the rules if you have a supermajority.

 

[ab2cmiller]

If the thing about Pelosi is true, it was beyond stupid for McCarthy to trust her reassurances. He took the bait from Gaetz, he didn't need to change the rules. Wonder if there was part of him that didn't care one way or another and was tired of dealing with all the crap.

 

[jprue24]

Hard telling from here. In my brief stint of legislative work, we had the moderates who offered up votes to give the bill a ‘bi-partisan’ tag and then in turn got to influence the language. Leadership takes less risk because the bill is bipartisan and the minority gets to influence language and be in the room. Bi-partisan bills typically get moved to the agenda too. Lots of bills never break committee. You don’t get any of this when you have straight party voting. My guess is some stuff had this going on.
That’s likely going to stall.

Ok, yes. I understand the maneuvering of bills in committees to make them into bills that will pass, but still allow some members cover to vote with or against party leadership.

This is my perception of what is going on in the house. Any GOP speaker that is interested in governing is going to run into the problem of whipping votes when you have member that just don't give a shit about governing.

I have no issues with the Freedom Caucus going to the mat over spending cuts on a budget bill. That's when, IMO, they are supposed to do it. If the government shuts down because of budget disagreements, that is a shitty outcome, but I respect that people get voted in to cut the budget, etc. and they are doing what they believe they were sent to do. I respect that.

My issues are when any politician starts fucking with the regular running of the government because they see an opportunity. I despise the budget shit that happens with debt ceiling limits. It's ridiculous that deals had to be cut for money that was already appropriated and it's a direct cause of the current mess.

 

[jprue24]

If the thing about Pelosi is true, it was beyond stupid for McCarthy to trust her reassurances. He took the bait from Gaetz, he didn't need to change the rules. Wonder if there was part of him that didn't care one way or another and was tired of dealing with all the crap.

Especially because she isn't in charge anymore. This is Jefferies caucus now. If it was in doubt, this vote proves it.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

The State Legislatures are going to fuck with all this any way they can. See Wisconsin. Wisconsin Republicans are already trying to impeach the new Supreme Court Justice and want to remove the state's head election official.

This is what happens when elections are lost. Just keep moving the goalposts and change the rules if you have a supermajority.

As far as state that gerrymandered out minority districts intentionally, they will be forced to redraw them per the SCOTUS ruling on the matter. Any state with this condition will have to add a minority district. TX, GA, SC, FL etc all have to do this at some point.

 

[jprue24]

A Dem POV about the run up.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

GOP really leaning into "look what you made me do" in the fallout

Exactly what abusers in abusive relationships say

 

[PerthDomer]

Does anyone really think the moderate/politically vulnerable R's are going to vote for speaker Jim Jordan? It just takes 8 R's to sink a speaker without D help. Those guys are going to lose their seats if Jim gets put in charge.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Does anyone really think the moderate/politically vulnerable R's are going to vote for speaker Jim Jordan? It just takes 8 R's to sink a speaker without D help. Those guys are going to lose their seats if Jim gets put in charge.

Jim Jordan won't have the votes. Trump won't either.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Any chance 8-10 Rs join Dems and make Hakeen Speaker?