Path to the CFP?

[Dizzyphil]

Early rumors out of AZ that Ok St. and ND have been invited to Fiesta Bowl.........

 

[ThePiombino]

Think ol' Dave is upset?

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1467557719662080003[/TWEET]

He's not saying anything we wouldn't be saying if we were in their shoes.

 

[Rockin’Irish]

Early rumors out of AZ that Ok St. and ND have been invited to Fiesta Bowl.........

I am hoping that’s the case……I’d rather see ND play OK State rather than a team that’s periodically on ND’s schedule, like Pitt.

 

[Dizzyphil]

I am hoping that’s the case……I’d rather see ND play OK State rather than a team that’s periodically on ND’s schedule, like Pitt.

As soon as they post the pod-cast - I will post ... Clay Travis and Outkick is who I am listening.

 

[Dizzyphil]

LOL - he just said inviting Mich St over ND would be a $20-25M mistake in merchandising alone for the Bowl if not more.

 

[phork]

He's not saying anything we wouldn't be saying if we were in their shoes.

Does he forget that UM beat Rutgers by 7. Nebraska by 3. Only beat PSU because Franklin out coached himself and got run the fuck over by MSU.

 

[ThePiombino]

Does he forget that UM beat Rutgers by 7. Nebraska by 3. Only beat PSU because Franklin out coached himself and got run the fuck over by MSU.

Look at our performance in the 1st 1/2 of the season. Not too many on here don't currently think we aren't deserving of a CFP spot. We would be saying the shit if we were in Michigan's shoes about being jumped. Please don't make me defend that fucking clown show Portnoy.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Just released by The Athletic - still waiting on confirmation from Fiesta but more than likely OSU vs ND...

Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State in the Peach Bowl

 

[ND87]

Lol. Jesse Palmer just said Cincy and Michigan could play in the championship game. Cincy is gonna get hammered

Personally, I'll be rooting for them to win it all. That way our only loss was to eventual champ.

assuming we get by OSU, obvs

 

[ACamp1900]

Just released by The Athletic - still waiting on confirmation from Fiesta but more than likely OSU vs ND...

Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State in the Peach Bowl

It’s about money guys,… not competitiveness or legitimacy. When viewed from that angle wtf is he supposed to say, ‘The first round will be pretty boring,… about a ~5 percent chance it’s anything but UGA/bama again,…’ ??? They’re selling the product instead of having a legit competitive dialogue

 

[Rogue219]

On one hand, the schedule turned out to be a steaming pile of hot garbage because teams like FSU, VT and Stanford were all pretty bad.

On the other hand, if the UVA QB is healthy, there is a slight chance we're talking about a 10-2. Glad we'll never know. Those are the breaks of the game, and frankly, I thought ND should have put more on UVA than 28-3. They probably could have. I'm sure Kelly walked that back.

I get the impression that Freeman and Rees will go Sensei Kreese Cobra Kai in games like that and show no mercy.

 

[phork]

On one hand, the schedule turned out to be a steaming pile of hot garbage because teams like FSU, VT and Stanford were all pretty bad.

On the other hand, if the UVA QB is healthy, there is a slight chance we're talking about a 10-2. Glad we'll never know. Those are the breaks of the game, and frankly, I thought ND should have put more on UVA than 28-3. They probably could have. I'm sure Kelly walked that back.

I get the impression that Freeman and Rees will go Sensei Kreese Cobra Kai in games like that and show no mercy.

With no 13th data point ND has to pile it on for extra style points. And not lose to teams like Cincy.

 

[Dale]

With no 13th data point ND has to pile it on for extra style points. And not lose to teams like Cincy.

No on #1, Yes on #2. It really was just the loss. Nothing more. A better schedule or style points or any of that would have just made it more frustrating to be 5th, not have any tangible impact.

 

[irishtrooper]

With no 13th data point ND has to pile it on for extra style points. And not lose to teams like Cincy.

I hate that this is even a thing. The 13th data point is an ESPN-created fallacy. I’m sure it comes in to play occasionally, but this almighty 13th data point is almost always Mercer, Savannah St, East Tenn St, and total crap like that…. It’s hardly ever good FCS teams like North Dakota St and the like…. It was really that our only chance to get a win over a ranked team was lost. ND crapped their pants when it mattered. Beating Villanova would have done nothing to help. The weak schedule wasn’t ND’s fault, but they did lose their chance against Cincy

 

[ACamp1900]

I hate that this is even a thing. The 13th data point is an ESPN-created fallacy. I’m sure it comes in to play occasionally, but this almighty 13th data point is almost always Mercer, Savannah St, East Tenn St, and total crap like that…. It’s hardly ever good FCS teams like North Dakota St and the like…. It was really that our only chance to get a win over a ranked team was lost. ND crapped their pants when it mattered. Beating Villanova would have done nothing to help. The weak schedule wasn’t ND’s fault, but they did lose their chance against Cincy

Not almost,…. Always

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Pete Sampson had a good tweet regarding this. IF ND was in the ACC again this year and played Pitt or Wake in the CC and beat them the way UM beat Iowa, it still wouldn't have mattered. They lost to Cincy so they were never getting ahead of them in these polls. They weren't jumping UM, who just beat OSU. They wouldn't have jumped Ok State had they handled their business against Baylor.

The bottom line is that ND needed to handle their business and they didn't.

Is it possible that some years being in a conference would pay off for them? Yea, maybe. Playing FSU, Miami, VT, Clemson all in the same year and then beating Clemson again in a CC game looks pretty damn good. But you still have to win the games. 12-0 ND will never be left out of the playoffs because their SOS as it stands will always be good enough w/o that 13th game.

 

[phork]

Pete Sampson had a good tweet regarding this. IF ND was in the ACC again this year and played Pitt or Wake in the CC and beat them the way UM beat Iowa, it still wouldn't have mattered. They lost to Cincy so they were never getting ahead of them in these polls. They weren't jumping UM, who just beat OSU. They wouldn't have jumped Ok State had they handled their business against Baylor.

The bottom line is that ND needed to handle their business and they didn't.

Is it possible that some years being in a conference would pay off for them? Yea, maybe. Playing FSU, Miami, VT, Clemson all in the same year and then beating Clemson again in a CC game looks pretty damn good. But you still have to win the games. 12-0 ND will never be left out of the playoffs because their SOS as it stands will always be good enough w/o that 13th game.

Thats not true. UM lost to MSU, Barta literally said "Don't watch the game, UM is better on paper" and UM was ahead of MSU just like that. I fully believe ND caving in the ACC other division winner would have pushed ND in, because they were about to do it to OklahomaSt.

 

[Irish#1]

Pete Sampson had a good tweet regarding this. IF ND was in the ACC again this year and played Pitt or Wake in the CC and beat them the way UM beat Iowa, it still wouldn't have mattered. They lost to Cincy so they were never getting ahead of them in these polls. They weren't jumping UM, who just beat OSU. They wouldn't have jumped Ok State had they handled their business against Baylor.

The bottom line is that ND needed to handle their business and they didn't.

Is it possible that some years being in a conference would pay off for them? Yea, maybe. Playing FSU, Miami, VT, Clemson all in the same year and then beating Clemson again in a CC game looks pretty damn good. But you still have to win the games. 12-0 ND will never be left out of the playoffs because their SOS as it stands will always be good enough w/o that 13th game.

Not sure I agree with Sampson. Except for Cincy who handled their business? Everyone had at least one loss. If the loss had been earlier in the year, there's a good chance we would have moved up sooner. The other thing that hurt us is the committee not buying Cincy as a legitimate contender.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Thats not true. UM lost to MSU, Barta literally said "Don't watch the game, UM is better on paper" and UM was ahead of MSU just like that. I fully believe ND caving in the ACC other division winner would have pushed ND in, because they were about to do it to OklahomaSt.

Seems that as the season played out it became obvious that UM is in fact better than MSU. What's your point? The committee was never going to put ND ahead of Cincy as long as Cincy kept winning. People who keep bringing up the MSU/UM game keep failing to acknowledge that MSU lost a week later to an un-ranked team.

Not sure I agree with Sampson. Except for Cincy who handled their business? Everyone had at least one loss. If the loss had been earlier in the year, there's a good chance we would have moved up sooner. The other thing that hurt us is the committee not buying Cincy as a legitimate contender.

ND lost to Cincy in week 5. They also almost lost to FSU, Toledo, and VT before turning it around. Meanwhile, Cincy (after beating top-ten ranked ND on the road) just kept winning. ND didn't move up sooner or more dramatically in large part because of who they were beating. USC, UNC, VA all having down years didn't help.

When it came to championship week, ND needed help. Alabama did what they needed to do to get into the CFP. Cincy handled their business. Michigan handled theirs. Only OK State did not. ND, sitting at 6 needed two teams to lose.

Pete's point is that even if ND beat Pitt/Wake, it may not have been enough to push them ahead of 1 Bama, 2 Michigan, 3 Georgia.....would the committee really put ND in over Cincy, the team that beat them head to head? The answer is no. It doesn't apply to OK State because the circumstances aren't the same, imo. They didn't play Cincy head to head and they had more quality wins than ND and Cincy. Could I envision a scenario where the committee left out Cincy in favor of OK State? Yea. But that doesn't apply to ND imo and I think that's Pete's point. Winning the ACCCG wouldn't have moved the needle enough given the way things played out w/ the other teams.

 

[phork]

Seems that as the season played out it became obvious that UM is in fact better than MSU. What's your point? The committee was never going to put ND ahead of Cincy as long as Cincy kept winning. People who keep bringing up the MSU/UM game keep failing to acknowledge that MSU lost a week later to an un-ranked team.



ND lost to Cincy in week 5. They also almost lost to FSU, Toledo, and VT before turning it around. Meanwhile, Cincy (after beating top-ten ranked ND on the road) just kept winning. ND didn't move up sooner or more dramatically in large part because of who they were beating. USC, UNC, VA all having down years didn't help.

When it came to championship week, ND needed help. Alabama did what they needed to do to get into the CFP. Cincy handled their business. Michigan handled theirs. Only OK State did not. ND, sitting at 6 needed two teams to lose.

Pete's point is that even if ND beat Pitt/Wake, it may not have been enough to push them ahead of 1 Bama, 2 Michigan, 3 Georgia.....would the committee really put ND in over Cincy, the team that beat them head to head? The answer is no. It doesn't apply to OK State because the circumstances aren't the same, imo. They didn't play Cincy head to head and they had more quality wins than ND and Cincy. Could I envision a scenario where the committee left out Cincy in favor of OK State? Yea. But that doesn't apply to ND imo and I think that's Pete's point. Winning the ACCCG wouldn't have moved the needle enough given the way things played out w/ the other teams.

My point is that at the time ND lost to Cincy it wasn't a good team. At this point in time I believe ND would destroy Cincy. The committee has always stated they will put the best teams in. See OhioSt/PennSt. With a conference championship I believe ND would have jumped Cincy.

Note. I am not in favor of joining a conference, especially when the playoff field is going to expand.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

My point is that at the time ND lost to Cincy it wasn't a good team. At this point in time I believe ND would destroy Cincy. The committee has always stated they will put the best teams in. See OhioSt/PennSt. With a conference championship I believe ND would have jumped Cincy.

Note. I am not in favor of joining a conference, especially when the playoff field is going to expand.

How would you handle it if the shoe was on the other foot? If ND got jumped by another team they beat earlier in the year? Just curious. I'm not trying to label you a homer, we're all ND fanatics here, but I think consistency is key. Winning the games has to matter.

*I agree that the ND team that played in the second half of the season may have beat Cincy easily. I guess we can put that theory to the test when ND plays OK State soon, as they have a great defense too.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

My point is that at the time ND lost to Cincy it wasn't a good team. At this point in time I believe ND would destroy Cincy. The committee has always stated they will put the best teams in. See OhioSt/PennSt. With a conference championship I believe ND would have jumped Cincy.

Note. I am not in favor of joining a conference, especially when the playoff field is going to expand.

I gamed out this scenario in detail here. An 11-1 ND in the ACC this year would be in the Coastal, and would basically have traded Purdue, Wisconsin/ Cinci, and Stanford for Pitt, Miami and Duke. That's clearly a step down in SoS. We would have played Wake Forest for the conference championship last Saturday, but even if we smashed them, it wouldn't have changed anything. The committee wasn't going to jump us over Cincinnati, who owns the head-to-head, when they beat Houston convincingly and we played the Demon Deacons.

The ACC sucked this year. Playing more of their teams would have hurt us.

 

[MNIrishman]

How would you handle it if the shoe was on the other foot? If ND got jumped by another team they beat earlier in the year? Just curious. I'm not trying to label you a homer, we're all ND fanatics here, but I think consistency is key. Winning the games has to matter.

*I agree that the ND team that played in the second half of the season may have beat Cincy easily. I guess we can put that theory to the test when ND plays OK State soon, as they have a great defense too.

We dropped 41 points on the nation's top defense. Only one playoff team played that team and we both scored more points and allowed fewer points than they did.
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ND played GT one week before Georgia did. Our starters scored nearly twice as many points in the first half as Georgia's starters did. That was when I realized Georgia was a paper tiger buoyed through weak competition.

If you look at our performance against common opponents with the teams that did get anointed, you'll see we consistently came out ahead.

The question isn't "Should we be ahead of Cincy?" Of course we don't. They won. The question is, "Which of the other three are we better than?" And the answer is probably all three, minus maybe Nick Saban's Megazord Alabama transformation.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

We dropped 41 points on the nation's top defense. Only one playoff team played that team and we both scored more points and allowed fewer points than they did.
​​​​​​
ND played GT one week before Georgia did. Our starters scored nearly twice as many points in the first half as Georgia's starters did. That was when I realized Georgia was a paper tiger buoyed through weak competition.

If you look at our performance against common opponents with the teams that did get anointed, you'll see we consistently came out ahead.

The question isn't "Should we be ahead of Cincy?" Of course we don't. They won. The question is, "Which of the other three are we better than?" And the answer is probably all three, minus maybe Nick Saban's Megazord Alabama transformation.

No we didn't. There was a ST TD and two pick 6s. The offense was pretty pedestrian against Wiscy.

No way to actually find out if ND is better than Alabama, Georgia or Michigan. We'll know soon enough if they're better than OK State. And Cincy owns the head to head (eventhough I agree ND probably wins a rematch). So that last bolded statement is a subjective reach, imo.

I wanted ND in the playoffs like everyone else, but I don't see the point in debating 11-1 ND getting in ahead of the other teams in the CFP, when one of those teams actually beat them earlier in the year. I think the committee got it right. It is what it is.

 

[MNIrishman]

No we didn't. There was a ST TD and two pick 6s. The offense was pretty pedestrian against Wiscy.

No way to actually find out if ND is better than Alabama, Georgia or Michigan. We'll know soon enough if they're better than OK State. And Cincy owns the head to head (eventhough I agree ND probably wins a rematch). So that last bolded statement is a subjective reach, imo.

I wanted ND in the playoffs like everyone else, but I don't see the point in debating 11-1 ND getting in ahead of the other teams in the CFP, when one of those teams actually beat them earlier in the year. I think the committee got it right. It is what it is.

Except for performance against common opponents, where we did better.

 

[Irish#1]

Seems that as the season played out it became obvious that UM is in fact better than MSU. What's your point? The committee was never going to put ND ahead of Cincy as long as Cincy kept winning. People who keep bringing up the MSU/UM game keep failing to acknowledge that MSU lost a week later to an un-ranked team.



ND lost to Cincy in week 5. They also almost lost to FSU, Toledo, and VT before turning it around. Meanwhile, Cincy (after beating top-ten ranked ND on the road) just kept winning. ND didn't move up sooner or more dramatically in large part because of who they were beating. USC, UNC, VA all having down years didn't help.

When it came to championship week, ND needed help. Alabama did what they needed to do to get into the CFP. Cincy handled their business. Michigan handled theirs. Only OK State did not. ND, sitting at 6 needed two teams to lose.

Pete's point is that even if ND beat Pitt/Wake, it may not have been enough to push them ahead of 1 Bama, 2 Michigan, 3 Georgia.....would the committee really put ND in over Cincy, the team that beat them head to head? The answer is no. It doesn't apply to OK State because the circumstances aren't the same, imo. They didn't play Cincy head to head and they had more quality wins than ND and Cincy. Could I envision a scenario where the committee left out Cincy in favor of OK State? Yea. But that doesn't apply to ND imo and I think that's Pete's point. Winning the ACCCG wouldn't have moved the needle enough given the way things played out w/ the other teams.

I get what your saying, but I'm not sure why Sampson even brought it up. We didn't play in the ACC this year and if we did, our schedule may have been different.

 

[phork]

How would you handle it if the shoe was on the other foot? If ND got jumped by another team they beat earlier in the year? Just curious. I'm not trying to label you a homer, we're all ND fanatics here, but I think consistency is key. Winning the games has to matter.

*I agree that the ND team that played in the second half of the season may have beat Cincy easily. I guess we can put that theory to the test when ND plays OK State soon, as they have a great defense too.

Given the same criteria with it being ND and say, Michigan hypothetically. I'd be fine with it. Again, the committees job is to pick the 4 best teams at the end of the season. Winning games matters for sure but the committee has already set that precedence in the past and even this year when they said to ignore the game, (UM/MSU) UM is better on paper.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I get what your saying, but I'm not sure why Sampson even brought it up. We didn't play in the ACC this year and if we did, our schedule may have been different.

I think he brought it up just to beat the "join a conference" crowd to the punch. His point was that the chips fell how they did and the 13th data point/Join a conference argument would not have mattered.

Given the same criteria with it being ND and say, Michigan hypothetically. I'd be fine with it. Again, the committees job is to pick the 4 best teams at the end of the season. Winning games matters for sure but the committee has already set that precedence in the past and even this year when they said to ignore the game, (UM/MSU) UM is better on paper.

When did UM get ranked ahead of MSU? Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't it like two weeks after UM lost that game? If so, MSU literally lost that very next weekend to Purdue. This isn't a valid argument. Both teams had one loss. MSU had the head to head victory (because UM blew that game). MSU also had a worse loss.

I genuinely don't know why people keep bringing this up. Hypothetically, lets say in a couple years #5 USC beats #6 ND on a wild 4th quarter comeback. But a week later ND beats Navy and USC loses to unranked Washington State by three touchdowns. Do you think the committee will drop USC behind ND after a loss like that? I do. That's a terrible loss. ND will have lost to a top 10 ranked team and USC will have lost badly to an unranked team.

 

[Dale]

Except for performance against common opponents, where we did better.

So we should get in the Playoff based off garbage time?

 

[Green Mountains]

I genuinely don't know why people keep bringing this up. Hypothetically, lets say in a couple years #5 USC beats #6 ND on a wild 4th quarter comeback. But a week later ND beats Navy and USC loses to unranked Washington State by three touchdowns. Do you think the committee will drop USC behind ND after a loss like that? I do. That's a terrible loss. ND will have lost to a top 10 ranked team and USC will have lost badly to an unranked team.

Or Hypothetically - 1993 Won the head to head vs #1 FSU. Lost a let down game to BC. Finished #2 to FSU. In committee talk - FSU had the better loss.....ND had the better win.

I still shake my head at this one. Any other team ....any one.....wins the NC based on head to head.