2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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BGIF

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Whether a kids parents are illegal or not, a new child born within our borders is legal. They are legally born here.

Yes, the child is and the parents are NOT whether they entered illegal or not.

And IF that child's parents, siblings, grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins enter illegally they are criminals and subject to deportation. That's the law, too.

And if those parents leave, they take their DUAL citizen child with them. When the citizen child becomes an adult that citizen can chose which country he wishes to live in. The others are still illegal until they fill out the paperwork and wait their turns like ten, (hundreds) of millions other legal immigrants have done.

I have been a citizenship sponser for two Iranian and one Iraqi families. The three males were hired by other but worked for me in two different companies and two different states long before E-verify. I knew them for several years. Each family had immigrated through legal channels going through Germany, Canada, and one or two other counties, I no longer recall all the details but did see the documentation from the various countries. It was a long journey both in miles and YEARS.
 

Wild Bill

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Furthermore, what do you do? Go home by home and rip them out of their homes? How well do you think that would work out? Wouldn't it be better to stop inflow and find an effective way to tax their wages and discourage employers from hiring new ones?

Yes. That's the only way, imo.

Secure the border.

Create a path to citizenship. Make them pay all unpaid taxes (no credits given), make them pay a heavy fine, make tax evaders pay a heavier fine before they're given papers.

Deport violent felons without exception.

Immediately deport anyone that stays without paying (harsh but a must, in my opinion, if you want people to play by the rules) and lay the hammer on any employer knowingly employing illegals.

It all starts with securing the border. Nobody trusts the border will be secured after the fact.
 
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BGIF

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Back to the Presidential Race

Back to the Presidential Race

Arizona Going Big for Trump and Clinton

GOP 43% IN

HTML:
candidate votes	%	pledged delegates
trump	140,620	46.4%   0
cruz	62,750	20.7%  0
kasich	31,615	10.4%  0


DEMOCRAT 51% IN
candidate votes % pledged delegates
clinton 137,842 60.3% 0
sanders 84,712 37.1% 0
 

pkt77242

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Yes. That's the only way, imo.

Secure the border.

Create a path to citizenship. Make them pay all unpaid taxes (no credits given), make them pay a heavy fine, make tax evaders pay a heavier fine before they're given papers.

Deport violent felons without exception.

Immediately deport anyone that stays without paying (harsh but a must, in my opinion, if you want people to play by the rules) and lay the hammer on any employer knowing employing illegals.

It all starts with securing the border. Nobody trusts the border will be secured after the fact.

Can they set up a payment plan? If you are talking about making them pay a heavy fine and unpaid taxes do they get time to pay it? I highly doubt most of them have enough money to pay back taxes (medicare/medicaid, SS, etc.) and a heavy fine right away.

ETA: Also what do you mean by securing our border?
 

BGIF

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AP Projects AZ To TRUMP

AP Projects AZ To TRUMP

46% IN

25.5% Lead


CNN CALL TRUMP FOR AZ WINNER TAKE ALL 58 Delegates


CNN CALLS CLINTON FOR AZ ... BUT it's not winner take all for Dems in AX
 
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Buster Bluth

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Hey squaw they are Americans "legally" because their parents committed an illegal act, which IMO shouldn't increase tax burden on kids parents born here legally. If their parents immigrated the correct/legal way, I'd have no problem. Pretty obvious what side of the coin you play on.

Legal immigrants don't burden the system? Last I checked we went decades taking anyone who could get here successfully from Cuba, because we empathized with the oppression they were escaping in their homeland. But today, when children from Guatemala, Honduras, etc come here because of the ongoing drug wars (in part caused by us!), the GOP forgets how Christian they claim to be and say "nah bro, Jesus said fuck you, muh tax burden is a bigger priority."

They are Americans legally, not "legally." Legally.

If not, tell me you are for stiffer immigration laws, deportation of illegals, or building a wall?

I am for stricter immigration laws, but I'll bet my house they're more thought out than what the GOP offers.

I am not for the deportation of illegals or building a wall, because both are very stupid and encouraged by stupid people who vote for stupid candidates who tell the stupid people the stupid ideas they want to hear.
 

Irish YJ

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Legal immigrants don't burden the system? Last I checked we went decades taking anyone who could get here successfully from Cuba, because we empathized with the oppression they were escaping in their homeland. But today, when children from Guatemala, Honduras, etc come here because of the ongoing drug wars (in part caused by us!), the GOP forgets how Christian they claim to be and say "nah bro, Jesus said fuck you, muh tax burden is a bigger priority."

They are Americans legally, not "legally." Legally.

I don't think I said legal immigrants burden the system. Thought I said I'd have no problem with legal immigrants period.

I am for stricter immigration laws, but I'll bet my house they're more thought out than what the GOP offers.

I am not for the deportation of illegals or building a wall, because both are very stupid and encouraged by stupid people who vote for stupid candidates who tell the stupid people the stupid ideas they want to hear.

So let all the law breakers stay, and continue to not pay taxes. Now that's stupid.

PS.. I'd prefer Kasich to Trump, but Trump will win the primary. I'll take a buffoon like Trump over Clinton/Sanders any day.
 

calvegas04

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Yes. That's the only way, imo.

Secure the border.

Create a path to citizenship. Make them pay all unpaid taxes (no credits given), make them pay a heavy fine, make tax evaders pay a heavier fine before they're given papers.

Deport violent felons without exception.

Immediately deport anyone that stays without paying (harsh but a must, in my opinion, if you want people to play by the rules) and lay the hammer on any employer knowingly employing illegals.

It all starts with securing the border. Nobody trusts the border will be secured after the fact.
I will vote for this.
 
B

Buster Bluth

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Yes. That's the only way, imo.

Secure the border.

Create a path to citizenship. Make them pay all unpaid taxes (no credits given), make them pay a heavy fine, make tax evaders pay a heavier fine before they're given papers.

Deport violent felons without exception.

Immediately deport anyone that stays without paying (harsh but a must, in my opinion, if you want people to play by the rules) and lay the hammer on any employer knowingly employing illegals.

It all starts with securing the border. Nobody trusts the border will be secured after the fact.

Secure the border? Can you name me one time in history in which a border thousands of miles long has been secured? The majority of illegal immigrants fly here, by the way. A border wall is a hand out to corporations who don't care if the policy even works.

Make them pay all unpaid taxes? Heavy fines? Bro some have been here for decades, and knowing what we know about the wealth status of first-generation immigrants...you're really suggesting that we make them write a check for money they don't have to pay bills that have already been dealt with? Talk about a way to help guarantee their families don't progress into the middle class and being productive citizens! Jesus lord.

Deport violent felons without exception? Well, knowing what we know about how permeable borders are...couldn't the felons just come back? Don't we want to keep VIOLENT FELONS behind bars up here, where we know where they are? Using your logic, why don't we just deport all of the arrested terrorists or the folks at Guantanamo? I think it's because they'll...start being criminals again.

Laying the hammer on employers of illegal immigrants? Hey! We got one! Tell me though, why do you need to do anything else (read: spend $10-16 billion on a wall) if you can choose this option? Boy if I didn't know any better this option doesn't get done because the corporations own the politicians and they like their cheap labor pool and on top of that they don't mind getting paid to build a stupid wall.

Immediately deport anyone that stays without paying? What about their American children? Are you advocating that we send Americans do live and die in Mexico and central America? What about the ones they (wisely) leave behind after being deported from not being able to pay the fine you're imposing on them? Are you going to fund those orphanages? Are you prepared to fund another generation of almost certain poverty caused by being raised in an orphanage due to their parents being deported because they couldn't pay an arbitrary fine you imposed on them?

Deporting 11 million people is also a larger logistical undertaking than the Holocaust, to put it in perspective. That'll look juuuuust great in the history books. And good job alienating our third-largest trading partner by tossing a humanitarian disaster on them at a time when their internal struggles are tantamount to civil war (which we helped cause!).

I'd rate your policy positions as: amoeba.
 
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Buster Bluth

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So let all the law breakers stay, and continue to not pay taxes. Now that's stupid.

Didn't we already go over this? They do pay many of the taxes you and I pay. ...and who here is advocating that we continue with the status quo in which they don't pay enough taxes?
 

pkt77242

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How do we have a more secure border?

Here is a graph from the Washington Post (not the prettiest) about border agents through 2011
imrs.php


Here is a prettier one but from a group that I don't know enough about to comment on them
130626bp.png


At what point is there diminishing returns?
 

BGIF

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The last REALCLEARPOLITICS AZ GOP POLL had

Polling Data
HTML:
Poll	                         Date	Sample	MoE	Trump Cruz Kasich Spread
FOX 10/Opinion Savvy	3/20 - 3/20	607 LV	4.0	46	33	17	    Trump+13

Tonight Trump is at 46.5% on the mark

Cruz is at 21.1%, 12 points below the Poll.

Kasich is at 10%, 7 points below the 3/20 Poll.

32% of the voters selected someone other that those 3 or voted undecided based on the 46.5%+21.1 + 7. The network/cable tallies only show Trump, Cruz, and Kasich.


Earlier tongiht Rachel Maddow MSNCC showed a graphic that some 309,000 Republican voter had cast their ballot early. She claimed the cutoff date for early voting would negate events preceeding Rubio's withdrawal that may explain the "missing" 32%, voters who earlier checked of Rubio, Carson and others who withdrew after the early ballot date.
 
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Wild Bill

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Can they set up a payment plan? If you are talking about making them pay a heavy fine and unpaid taxes do they get time to pay it? I highly doubt most of them have enough money to pay back taxes (medicare/medicaid, SS, etc.) and a heavy fine right away.

ETA: Also what do you mean by securing our border?

It has to be reasonable, and I don't think immediate payment is reasonable. Once it's paid and all other requirements are met, complete the process and legalize them. What I find most impressive about immigrants, those who come here to earn a better life, is that they overcome most obstacles because they're incredibly adept at handling adversity and they possess a will to succeed like no other. I'm sure they'd find a way if they were given a path. No sane nation would let these types of people waste away living as non paying, non citizens. They're just too valuable.

I'm not a border security expert but I'd consider anything that effectively protects the border, walls, men, technology, etc. Whatever it takes, just get it done.
 

kmoose

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very stupid and encouraged by stupid people who vote for stupid candidates who tell the stupid people the stupid ideas they want to hear.

Congratulations.............


The entire history of liberalism summed up very truthfully and succinctly.

:wink:
 

Irish YJ

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Didn't we already go over this? They do pay many of the taxes you and I pay. ...and who here is advocating that we continue with the status quo in which they don't pay enough taxes?

Outside of sales tax, what taxes are they paying?
So Buster, what is the answer? What would Buster do to kill the 100 Billion dollar cost caused by illegals?
 

pkt77242

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It has to be reasonable, and I don't think immediate payment is reasonable. Once it's paid and all other requirements are met, complete the process and legalize them. What I find most impressive about immigrants, those who come here to earn a better life, is that they overcome most obstacles because they're incredibly adept at handling adversity and they possess a will to succeed like no other. I'm sure they'd find a way if they were given a path. No sane nation would let these types of people waste away living as non paying, non citizens. They're just too valuable.

I'm not a border security expert but I'd consider anything that effectively protects the border, walls, men, technology, etc. Whatever it takes, just get it done.

How do we have a more secure border?

Here is a graph from the Washington Post (not the prettiest) about border agents through 2011
imrs.php


Here is a prettier one but from a group that I don't know enough about to comment on them
130626bp.png


At what point is there diminishing returns?

Here are some graphs I posted, we have ramped up spending on border control agents over the past 10 years.

This article from Fox News (which takes from a Inspector General report) on the problems with the drone programs
Federal report says Border Patrol's drone program doesn't fly | Fox News

Also here is a look at our Border Patrol Budget by year (yes the graph is ugly but it is effective).
18economix-immigration-budget-blog480.png


How much more can we spend? I think that we have hit the point that we are spending money on things that make us feel "safer" and more "secure" when the truth is that it really isn't cost effective to do more than we already are.


ETA: I agree with you that they should have to pay a fine (though I might disagree on what is meant by heavy) and that many would be willing and happy to do it.
 

Irish YJ

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at 3.5 billion to try and combat a loss of 100 billion per year,, well that's only 3.5%... how much did trump say it would cost to build a wall?

Edit.... would cost 10 bill...
 
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pkt77242

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at 3.5 billion to try and combat a loss of 100 billion per year,, well that's only 3.5%... how much did trump say it would cost to build a wall?

No one knows exactly how much it would cost but well over 20 billion and maybe has much as 40-50 billion and that doesn't include the upkeep. Also walls don't work as well as people like to think.

Also the 3.5 billion is just part of the cost. It doesn't include the cost of prisons, the judicial system, etc., etc.

Also I would love to see how they came up with 100 billion, because I don't buy it. I think that is the "costs" but it might not take into account the "savings" we see with illegal immigrants (cheaper houses, cheaper fruits and veggies, cheaper landscaping, etc.).
 

pkt77242

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at 3.5 billion to try and combat a loss of 100 billion per year,, well that's only 3.5%... how much did trump say it would cost to build a wall?

Edit.... would cost 10 bill...

Bullshit. (not aimed at you, I get that you didn't come up with that number). It will cost significantly more than that. I did a look at it a few pages back and I think the bare minimum is 15 million and that is doing a small fence, something like 10 feet, Trump is talking about something significantly taller which not only raises the costs of labor and materials, and adds new difficulties. I think a conservative estimate is 20 billion and some estimates put it closer to 40-50 billion.
 

Irish YJ

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No one knows exactly how much it would cost but well over 20 billion and maybe has much as 40-50 billion and that doesn't include the upkeep. Also walls don't work as well as people like to think.

Also the 3.5 billion is just part of the cost. It doesn't include the cost of prisons, the judicial system, etc., etc.

Also I would love to see how they came up with 100 billion, because I don't buy it. I think that is the "costs" but it might not take into account the "savings" we see with illegal immigrants (cheaper houses, cheaper fruits and veggies, cheaper landscaping, etc.).

I've read several places that quote 8-15 Billion to build.
I think prison cost would decrease... undocumented means back over the wall with a quickness. also a decrease in the crime/drug element to an extent.

Also, all the cheap stuff.... is it really good. means less sales tax, lower wages (all the while people scream to increase the min wage), US citizen unemployment. Not sure the "savings" are really truly savings. I'm happy to pay a little more for some US citizens to pick my berries. i live in a humble home that's paid off. I cut my own grass and plant my own trees. I'm OK with the lack of savings.
 

Irish YJ

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Bullshit. (not aimed at you, I get that you didn't come up with that number). It will cost significantly more than that. I did a look at it a few pages back and I think the bare minimum is 15 million and that is doing a small fence, something like 10 feet, Trump is talking about something significantly taller which not only raises the costs of labor and materials, and adds new difficulties. I think a conservative estimate is 20 billion and some estimates put it closer to 40-50 billion.

Trump says 8 which I don't believe either.

From CNN

Basing the cost on highway panels (20ft), the price-tag for the wall alone would cost around $10 billion, which is not accounting for the cost of construction that would take at least four years over the border's diverse terrain.

So Let's say 20. I'm OK with the 1x 20 + maint vs the the 100bill yearly and growing, or a little less than 100bill + savings.

Trump has repeated many times that Mexico, not the U.S., would foot the bill. I'm interested in how he intends to pull this off. Increased tariff? Let illegals earn their legal status by building and fines?
 

pkt77242

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I've read several places that quote 8-15 Billion to build.
I think prison cost would decrease... undocumented means back over the wall with a quickness. also a decrease in the crime/drug element to an extent.

Also, all the cheap stuff.... is it really good. means less sales tax, lower wages (all the while people scream to increase the min wage), US citizen unemployment. Not sure the "savings" are really truly savings. I'm happy to pay a little more for some US citizens to pick my berries. i live in a humble home that's paid off. I cut my own grass and plant my own trees. I'm OK with the lack of savings.

I get that you might not view it as "savings" but for many Americans they are savings.

Here is an interesting article on the wall and the costs. It involves an construction professional's estimates and looks at why it would be so expensive (land needs to be bought, materials, removing the dirt to put the wall in, building roads to access areas that are currently difficult to impossible to access, etc.).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/02/11/trumps-dubious-claim-that-his-border-wall-would-cost-8-billion/

All of that doesn't even look at the upkeep costs which as we have seen with the already completed portion has been very expensive.

We spoke to a retired estimator and economist for one of the nation’s largest construction firms. He worked through some of the math, though he did not want to be identified publicly. Roughly, he said a wall of this type would cost at least $25 billion — and that is not counting a video system to keep watch on the border. Building the wall would also require at least 40,000 workers a year for at least four years, but he doubted it could be built so quickly.

The concrete panels would need to be at least 8 inches thick and be 40 feet tall (35 feet above ground and five feet under ground). He estimated that it would cost about $10 billion for the concrete panels and $5-6 billion for steel columns to hold the panels, including labor. Concrete footing for the columns and a concrete foundation would add another $1 billion. A road would need to be built so 20-ton trucks could deliver the materials; that’s another $2 billion. Then you need to add another 30 percent for engineering, design, management and so forth. That adds up to nearly $25 billion–three times Trump’s estimate.

Some of the calculations are staggering. The foundations would require nearly 2.5 to 3 million cubic yards of concrete, which requires poured-in-place concrete delivered in concrete trucks. “That’s 250,000 to 300,000 truckloads, 20-ton each of concrete,” he said. Then the excavated earth would need to be hauled somewhere and disposed–nearly 3 million cubic yards, or enough soil to cover 17 acres 100 feet deep. That’s 90,000 truckloads of 40 tons each.
 
B

Buster Bluth

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Outside of sales tax, what taxes are they paying?

5 immigration myths debunked - Nov. 20, 2014

Collectively, they paid an estimated $10.6 billion to state and local taxes in 2010, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), a research organization that works on tax policy issues. Contributions varied by state. In Montana they contributed $2 million. In California, more than $2.2 billion. On average they pay about 6.4% of their income in state and local taxes, ITEP said.

A 2007 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on the impact of undocumented immigrants on the budgets of local and state governments cited IRS figures showing that 50% to 75% of the about 11 million unauthorized U.S. immigrants file and pay income taxes each year.

According to the Social Security Administration (SSA), unauthorized immigrants -- who are not eligible to receive Social Security benefits -- have paid an eye-popping $100 billion into the fund over the past decade.

Some other interesting facts on their drain on society:

Undocumented immigrants do not qualify for welfare, food stamps, Medicaid, and most other public benefits. Most of these programs require proof of legal immigration status and under the 1996 welfare law, even legal immigrants cannot receive these benefits until they have been in the United States for more than five years.

Non-citizen immigrant adults and children are about 25% less likely to be signed up for Medicaid than their poor native-born equivalents and are also 37% less likely to receive food stamps, according to a 2013 study by the Cato Institute.

It doesn't get much more Conservative than Cato.

It's the children who qualify for benefits, to the tune of ~$14,000/yr per household. So even if you removed their parents you wouldn't put a dent in the benefits paid to the actual recipients of welfare, etc. Just another reason why the positions opposing immigration reform don't make any sense.

So Buster, what is the answer? What would Buster do to kill the 100 Billion dollar cost caused by illegals?

I'm highly suspicious of that figure because it's source, Federation for American Immigration Reform, is a joke. I don't mean that in the "they disagree with me so fuck em" sense, they are just not respected. I also don't think that weighs the economic benefit of their cheap labor. All things consider, economists consider illegal immigration to be even in terms of cost and benefit, especially when considering all of the baby boomers who decided to not have as many kids but still want a workforce to pay their social security. As a matter of SS longevity, immigration is a good thing.

I would provide a fairly easy path to citizenship and penalize companies who employ undocumented immigrants. These people have been here for years or even decades, and have American children. They are part of communities and are customers. And being a customer is important considering a whopping 68.5% of GDP growth is from personal spending (I think government spending is 17% for comparison).

I would consider reducing the work permits for educated immigrants. Companies are importing cheap engineers from India, etc and screwing over Americans who followed every step their government/society said they should "stay out of trouble, get a degree, etc) only to be undercut by a wave of cheaper labor for what should be high-paying jobs.

I would also end the Drug War immediately and assess and prioritize any American policies that are both bad for us and bad for Central America. If Guatemala wasn't such a drug-fueled war zone, they wouldn't be coming here. If Mexico wasn't such a shitty place to live, they wouldn't be coming here. But the reality is our foreign policy in this area has been one of abuse and destabilization for more than a century. Just reading about Reagan's involvement with murder squads down there should make anyone's blood boil. I mean we topple governments so banana corporations can get a better deal and wonder why things never improve down there? Come on.

But let's face facts: corporations want their cheap labor pool and Republicans don't want to create 11 million new Democratic voters. That's why nothing gets done. Follow the money and power and you get the answer every god damn time.
 
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Legacy

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Manufacturing Jobs

Manufacturing Jobs

Why Donald Trump Is Wrong About Manufacturing Jobs and China

It’s a simple and effective pitch, with a ready set of scapegoats. But despite what the rhetoric would have us believe, global manufacturing is trending in a positive direction for the U.S. Factory jobs are on the rise here, and many of these new jobs are coming back to North America from China, which is struggling to maintain its manufacturing capacity. Since March, 2010, when manufacturing employment in the U.S. hit a trough of 11.45 million jobs, nearly a million new factory positions have been created, most of them in the Southern states, particularly North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Better still, the jobs are typically good ones: across that same five-year period, average hourly manufacturing wages have increased over ten per cent, to more than twenty dollars. On the whole, U.S. manufacturing, as measured by the Purchasing Managers’ Index, has steadily expanded.

Record number of manufacturing jobs returning to America

Made in the U.S.A. is hot again, and the number of manufacturing jobs that are returning to the U.S. — or coming to the U.S. for the first time — from overseas has hit a record level.

Sixty thousand manufacturing jobs were added in the U.S. in 2014, versus 12,000 in 2003, either through so-called reshoring, in which American companies bring jobs back to the U.S., or foreign direct investment, in which foreign companies move production to the U.S., according to a study from the Reshoring Initiative. In contrast, as many as 50,000 jobs were “offshored” last year, a decline from about 150,000 in 2003.

Donald Trump: "I love the poorly educated."
 
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Irish YJ

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Buster, not going to take the time right now to comment on the bulk of your post (bed time, so maybe in the AM). But please, never, ever use and article from Maria Santana (a pro illegal character), and anchor for CNN En Espanol to debunk immigration.
 
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Buster Bluth

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Buster, not going to take the time right now to comment on the bulk of your post (bed time, so maybe in the AM). But please, never, ever use and article from Maria Santana (a pro illegal character), and anchor for CNN En Espanol to debunk immigration.

Please never, ever discredit my posts that use balanced sources from the following to make an argument:

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP)
Social Security Administration (SSA)
Cato Institute
 

BGIF

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Utah Dems MSNBC Calls the state for Bernie

Utah Dems MSNBC Calls the state for Bernie

37 Delegates, 14% IN

Sanders 75%
Clinton 23
 

BGIF

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Utah GOP Cruz Dominating Early Return

Utah GOP Cruz Dominating Early Return

40 Delegates, 2% IN

Cruz 59% 2,541
Kasich 22% 848
Trump 19% 830
 

BGIF

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Cruz Won 1 County in AZ

Cruz Won 1 County in AZ

Graham County which just happens to have the largest Mormon population in AZ.

"Pope" Mitt getting some traction.


Cruz won 1431 to Trump's 1427, a margin of 4 votes. Kasich has 183.
 
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