2016 Presidential Horse Race

[GATTACA!]

Trumps bs can't even take a majority of the party. Being painted as a bigot for months who hosts a traveling Jerry Springer show won't win an election. Kasich is the last hope.

By what measure? As of the end of tonight Trump will be around 725 delegates. The rest of the republicans will be at a combined 697, and that's if you include Rubio and Carson. Without those two Trump is ahead 725-526. So I don't know how you can say he can't take the majority of the party when he already is. In a race with this many candidates the numbers are always going to look much lower across the board because they are getting split so many different ways.

 

[BGIF]

IL to Trump per FOX

IL to Trump per FOX

27% IN

Trump 40.2
Cruz 25.9
Kasich 22.3
Rubio 9.2

 

[BGIF]

MO Trump and Cruz Battling

MO Trump and Cruz Battling

22% IN

Trump 42.7%
Cruz 40.3
Kasich 7.9
Rubio 6.0

 

[loomis41973]

Thank you Illinois

 

[woolybug25]

By what measure? As of the end of tonight Trump will be around 725 delegates. The rest of the republicans will be at a combined 697, and that's if you include Rubio and Carson. Without those two Trump is ahead 725-526. So I don't know how you can say he can't take the majority of the party when he already is. In a race with this many candidates the numbers are always going to look much lower across the board because they are getting split so many different ways.

You're misunderstanding him. Trump is getting the delegates, but he isn't getting the majority of the votes. He's just getting the biggest percentage of the votes out of the large pool of candidates. He's not winning more than 50% of the votes in really any state. If he would have only been running against one candidate over the last month, then he probably wouldn't even be the the leader right now.

 

[BGIF]

UNC Trump Leads Cruz by 3.8%

UNC Trump Leads Cruz by 3.8%

53% IN

Trump 40.2%
Cruz 36.4
Kasich 12.5
Rubio 8.3

 

[loomis41973]

Trumps bs can't even take a majority of the party. Being painted as a bigot for months who hosts a traveling Jerry Springer show won't win an election. Kasich is the last hope.

Are there even enough delegates left for Kasich to have a shot?

Nope....

He's doing Trump a favor by staying in and hoping for a VP nominee is my guess

 

[loomis41973]

You're misunderstanding him. Trump is getting the delegates, but he isn't getting the majority of the votes. He's just getting the biggest percentage of the votes out of the large pool of candidates. He's not winning more than 50% of the votes in really any state. If he would have only been running against one candidate over the last month, then he probably wouldn't even be the the leader right now.

Keep telling yourself that.:talktohan

 

[woolybug25]

Keep telling yourself that.:talktohan

That's a fact, not an opinion. Did you actually read what I wrote? Ha

 

[woolybug25]

Are there even enough delegates left for Kasich to have a shot?

Nope....

He's doing Trump a favor by staying in and hoping for a VP nominee is my guess

Also.... Kasich said today that there is zero chance he would run with Trump. So who is really not paying attention here?

 

[loomis41973]

and a big thank you to my home state of NORTH CAROLINA.

 

[loomis41973]

That's a fact, not an opinion. Did you actually read what I wrote? Ha

I read just fine. Much harder to get 50% of the vote with 72 people running

 

[loomis41973]

Also.... Kasich said today that there is zero chance he would run with Trump. So who is really not paying attention here?

Also what Kasich said today doesn't mean shinola tomorrow or a week from now. Guess you are the one not paying attention.

 

[BGIF]

NC To Trump per CNN

NC To Trump per CNN

72% IN

Trump 40.3%
Cruz 36.3
Kasich 12.6
Rubio 8.1

 

[woolybug25]

I read just fine. Much harder to get 50% of the vote with 72 people running

Then what in the hell are you talking about? You told me to "keep on telling myself that" like what I said was an opinion. When it is a hard fact, one you acknowledge.

You're terrible at this.

 

[loomis41973]

Then what in the hell are you talking about? You told me to "keep on telling myself that" like what I said was an opinion. When it is a hard fact, one you acknowledge.

You're terrible at this.

Guess logic isn't your strong suit.

I'm terrible at many things...thanks for pointing it out son.

 

[BGIF]

MO Trump Increases Small Lead

MO Trump Increases Small Lead

34% IN

Trump 43.1%
Cruz 40.3
Kasich 8.1


Last upate Trump had a 2.4 edge. Now 2.8.

Close race. Little over 7K difference.

 

[GATTACA!]

You're misunderstanding him. Trump is getting the delegates, but he isn't getting the majority of the votes. He's just getting the biggest percentage of the votes out of the large pool of candidates. He's not winning more than 50% of the votes in really any state. If he would have only been running against one candidate over the last month, then he probably wouldn't even be the the leader right now.

I get it, but the problem is Trump's numbers keep going up. It's not as if he was only winning at the beginning and is now hanging on as the field keeps shrinking. By your logic you have to assume that if everyone dropped out except Trump and on other candidate (say Cruz) that everyone who supported the others would all get behind Cruz. That just hasn't been the case so far. Every time someone has dropped out Trump has been picking up just as much of their support as the other candidates left in the race.

Tonight Trump is at 45% in Florida, 43% in Missouri, 40% in North Carolina, and 40% in Illinois. You're telling me that if everyone else dropped except Trump and one other opponent Trump wouldn't pick up 5-10% from the other 55-60% who all had their candidate drop out? I just don't buy it.

 

[loomis41973]

I get it, but the problem is Trump's numbers keep going up. It's not as if he was only winning at the beginning and is now hanging on as the field keeps shrinking. By your logic you have to assume that if everyone dropped out except Trump and on other candidate (say Cruz) that everyone who supported the others would all get behind Cruz. That just hasn't been the case so far. Every time someone has dropped out Trump has been picking up just as much of their support as the other candidates left in the race.

Tonight Trump is at 45% in Florida, 43% in Missouri, 40% in North Carolina, and 40% in Illinois. You're telling me that if everyone else dropped except Trump and one other opponent Trump wouldn't pick up 5-10% from the other 55-60% who all had their candidate drop out? I just don't buy it.

The Trump haters/or those just bad at simple math just can't admit it.

 

[BGIF]

MO Dem Sanders UP 52% to 47

MO Dem Sanders UP 52% to 47

19% IN

Sanders 65,086
Clinton 59,297

 

[woolybug25]

The Trump haters/or those just bad at simple math just can't admit it.

Wtf... show me where my "math" was wrong, big guy.

I'll respond to Gattaca, because his post made rational sense. But you are adding nothing to this conversation. You literally are talking out of your ass and either saying things that are patently false or just adding worthless "thank you ___" comments. Quit wasting the keystrokes.

 

[IrishLax]

Wtf... show me where my "math" was wrong, big guy.

I'll respond to Gattaca, because his post made rational sense. But you are adding nothing to this conversation. You literally are talking out of your ass and either saying things that are patently false or just adding worthless "thank you ___" comments. Quit wasting the keystrokes.

Your first mistake was engaging a Trump supporter.

 

[BGIF]

MO Trump Shrinks to 2.1%

MO Trump Shrinks to 2.1%

52% IN

Trump 42.8
Cruz 40.7
Kasich 8.1
Rubio 5.6

Trump has about 6.3K lead.

 

[woolybug25]

I get it, but the problem is Trump's numbers keep going up. It's not as if he was only winning at the beginning and is now hanging on as the field keeps shrinking. By your logic you have to assume that if everyone dropped out except Trump and on other candidate (say Cruz) that everyone who supported the others would all get behind Cruz. That just hasn't been the case so far. Every time someone has dropped out Trump has been picking up just as much of their support as the other candidates left in the race.

Tonight Trump is at 45% in Florida, 43% in Missouri, 40% in North Carolina, and 40% in Illinois. You're telling me that if everyone else dropped except Trump and one other opponent Trump wouldn't pick up 5-10% from the other 55-60% who all had their candidate drop out? I just don't buy it.

He's gaining traction simply because people are realizing that he'll be the candidate. That's all. There are TONS of polls out there that show that he would be losing to Cruz overall, and in many states Rubio, if there weren't so many damn candidates. The opposition to Trump is getting split, there are very little supporters of Cruz, Rubio and Kasich that would go for Trump if there were still a candidate other than him to vote for.

 

[BGIF]

MO Trump Lead Down to 1.5%

MO Trump Lead Down to 1.5%

52% IN

Trump 42.1%
Cruz 40.6
Kasich 8.9
Rubio 5.8

 

[BGIF]

MO Dems Sanders Lead 2.8%

MO Dems Sanders Lead 2.8%

31% IN

Sanders 50.2
Clinton 48.4

 

[GoIrish41]

I get it, but the problem is Trump's numbers keep going up. It's not as if he was only winning at the beginning and is now hanging on as the field keeps shrinking. By your logic you have to assume that if everyone dropped out except Trump and on other candidate (say Cruz) that everyone who supported the others would all get behind Cruz. That just hasn't been the case so far. Every time someone has dropped out Trump has been picking up just as much of their support as the other candidates left in the race.

Tonight Trump is at 45% in Florida, 43% in Missouri, 40% in North Carolina, and 40% in Illinois. You're telling me that if everyone else dropped except Trump and one other opponent Trump wouldn't pick up 5-10% from the other 55-60% who all had their candidate drop out? I just don't buy it.

His wins have been at about the 35% support level on average. And he didn't win in every state. He'd need to win by much more than 50% the rest of the way in every state to have enough delegates. He could get there, but odds are 50/50 at best. Everyone not named Trump is shooting for a contested convention. And that will be both fascinating and crazy.

 

[IrishLax]

Who here watched the TV show West Wing? In the last season, they had a contest convention for the Democrats because no one got 50%+ ... end result was not the guy who came in with the plurality.

 

[loomis41973]

Wtf... show me where my "math" was wrong, big guy.

I'll respond to Gattaca, because his post made rational sense. But you are adding nothing to this conversation. You literally are talking out of your ass and either saying things that are patently false or just adding worthless "thank you ___" comments. Quit wasting the keystrokes.

Respond to him then....your keystrokes wont change the facts or my mind. He showed you the error in your thinking.


He hasn't won 50%.....well no shit. Wonder why that is? Guy hits in the 40's with 4 candidates..thats pretty damn clear.

 

[loomis41973]

Who here watched the TV show West Wing? In the last season, they had a contest convention for the Democrats because no one got 50%+ ... end result was not the guy who came in with the plurality.

Riveting comment. 50% is not what they are aiming for.....it's number of delegates.