2016 Presidential Horse Race

[wizards8507]

No argument. Just an interesting juxtaposition.

It's not going to amount to jack anyways. I'm not sure there's anything Trump supporters care about less than what Willard thinks.

 

[wizards8507]

I'm absolutely slamming my head against the wall listening to and reading conservative media bash Romney for his attacks on Trump. I fully acknowledge that the Republican establishment is not conservative and resents the conservative movement, but it's not like Romney is out attacking Cruz. The establishment is hostile to conservatism but so is Trump.

 

[wizards8507]

Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination | FiveThirtyEight

This is important. If Rubio wins Florida or Kasich wins Ohio, it becomes more-likely-than-not that Trump goes to the convention with less than a majority of delegates.

 

[tussin]

Thank you Uncle Mitt.

The goal isn't to convert Trump supporters, we just need to make sure no one else joins the train. That speech, combined with a Rubio / Cruz ticket, could turn the race.

 

[GoIrish41]

I thought I've heard "pundits" say that Bernie's team has already said he won't work with her, considering how abrasive her campaign tactics have been. In fact I remember someone (can't remember who, some pundit on CNN) saying there's a better chance of Bernie running independent than with Hillary.

But of course, with the media, these could all be lies.

Also, when I say "doesn't make sense", I meant from Bernie's perspective. Of course Hillary would love to swoop up his supporters, that makes perfect sense.

But, I believe, above all things, Bernie wants to start a movement. Even if that means he won't be president. He really does want a democratic socialist country.

If he ran with Hillary, this would all but end his hopes of a political revolution. He would be siding with the "same old same old" democratic "Obama" agendas.

I don't think Bernie is desperate for a role as a vice president, he wants change and seems to have no interest in submitting to Hillary's agenda.

I wouldn't put too much into what Bernie's campaign says or what pundits repeat on the topic right now. Someone who is running for President isn't going to admit that they'd settle for VP while there is still a chance to sit in the big chair.

Thanks for the response.

What I'm suggesting isn't going to happen tomorrow. There is no reason for Bernie to concede anything at this point. We are talking about a time when Bernie and the rest of the electorate comes to the conclusion that the revolution isn't going to happen. And as much as I dread that moment coming, it seems clear that we will get there. At that point, it will also be clear that Trump is the candidate (I think that eventuality is close no matter how much we want to hold onto the hope that it isn't). It is when these two things happen that Hillary and Bernie will have some decisions to make.

Bernie clearly isn't desperate to be VP, but he'll also understand that a Trump win would push the country a lot further from the ideal society he envisions. And Hillary will realize that the Obama legacy to which she has been clinging so tightly during the primaries will lose ground.

Hillary and Bernie's agendas are not all that dissimilar, in my opinion. They have the same end goals, its just a matter of their approach to getting there. As I argued in a previous post, it is a matter of a starting point for negotiations with the right. They clearly disagree on what the initial offer should be. I suspect that the prospect of Trump presidency, coupled with a revolution that fell short of his expectations, would make him a bit less an idealist and a little more a pragmatist.

At some point, Bernie and Hillary will meet. Maybe it is before the primaries conclude and maybe it is in a conference room at the convention itself. In this meeting they will discuss the path forward to uniting the party. My contention is that they will both conclude, as I have, that the best and fastest way to do that is to join together to ensure Trump does not win the general election.

I suspect, as you do, that the ball will be in Bernie's court and he will have to do some soul searching about his willingness to set some of his idealism aside for the good of the country. While he might not get his revolution, he will at least consider the benefits of playing defense to keep the country from sliding toward something much further removed from his vision than it is today.

 

[Legacy]

In case it has not been posted....

Ted Cruz's Dad: My Son Ran for President After God Sent His Wife a Sign

Their problems are electability. Would they really obstruct those who do not believe?

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

I wouldn't put too much into what Bernie's campaign says or what pundits repeat on the topic right now. Someone who is running for President isn't going to admit that they'd settle for VP while there is still a chance to sit in the big chair.

Thanks for the response.

What I'm suggesting isn't going to happen tomorrow. There is no reason for Bernie to concede anything at this point. We are talking about a time when Bernie and the rest of the electorate comes to the conclusion that the revolution isn't going to happen. And as much as I dread that moment coming, it seems clear that we will get there. At that point, it will also be clear that Trump is the candidate (I think that eventuality is close no matter how much we want to hold onto the hope that it isn't). It is when these two things happen that Hillary and Bernie will have some decisions to make.

Bernie clearly isn't desperate to be VP, but he'll also understand that a Trump win would push the country a lot further from the ideal society he envisions. And Hillary will realize that the Obama legacy to which she has been clinging so tightly during the primaries will lose ground.

Hillary and Bernie's agendas are not all that dissimilar, in my opinion. They have the same end goals, its just a matter of their approach to getting there. As I argued in a previous post, it is a matter of a starting point for negotiations with the right. They clearly disagree on what the initial offer should be. I suspect that the prospect of Trump presidency, coupled with a revolution that fell short of his expectations, would make him a bit less an idealist and a little more a pragmatist.

At some point, Bernie and Hillary will meet. Maybe it is before the primaries conclude and maybe it is in a conference room at the convention itself. In this meeting they will discuss the path forward to uniting the party. My contention is that they will both conclude, as I have, that the best and fastest way to do that is to join together to ensure Trump does not win the general election.

I suspect, as you do, that the ball will be in Bernie's court and he will have to do some soul searching about his willingness to set some of his idealism aside for the good of the country. While he might not get his revolution, he will at least consider the benefits of playing defense to keep the country from sliding toward something much further removed from his vision than it is today.

The only problem with your "Bernie setting aside his differences for the good of the Democratic party" idea is, if Drumpf wins the nomination, Hillary probably won't need Bernie's help.

The polls I've seen have a Hillary beating Drumpf head to head, and with the Republicans attacking Trump from all angles, I wouldn't be surprised if his supporters to start to see through him. (although, I would have thought the drop off would have been bigger by now).

If Hillary is able to beat Drumpf head to head, I doubt she'll even want Bernie. And I can pretty much guarantee Bernie wouldn't approach her about the idea.

If the race is close, maybe Bernie tries to save the party. But I see this scenario as a slim possibility.

 

[wizards8507]

I need to disaffiliate. Listening to Trump supporters on talk radio makes me want to blow my brains out. I can't be associated with these people.

 

[yankeehater]

I haven't seen him take a position in that regard. Cruz loves the Constitution as much as he loves the Bible.

Thank you for posting this. I was thinking the same thing. All I have ever heard him speak about was his legislative beliefs to be based on the Constitution.

Here is something to ponder. I was speaking to a Cruz supporter I believe it was the day after he won Iowa. He commented on how Cruz is done. When I asked why, he stated it was due to the fact Cruz thanked God in his victory speech. If true, is this really where we are headed?

 

[wizards8507]

Thank you for posting this. I was thinking the same thing. All I have ever heard him speak about was his legislative beliefs to be based on the Constitution.

Here is something to ponder. I was speaking to a Cruz supporter I believe it was the day after he won Iowa. He commented on how Cruz is done. When I asked why, he stated it was due to the fact Cruz thanked God in his victory speech. If true, is this really where we are headed?

Nah, even HRC ends her speeches with "God bless [state], and God bless the United States of America."

 

[pkt77242]

Thank you for posting this. I was thinking the same thing. All I have ever heard him speak about was his legislative beliefs to be based on the Constitution.

Here is something to ponder. I was speaking to a Cruz supporter I believe it was the day after he won Iowa. He commented on how Cruz is done. When I asked why, he stated it was due to the fact Cruz thanked God in his victory speech. If true, is this really where we are headed?

What? Not true at all. The only way to get elected in this country is to talk about your relationship with God.

In U.S., Socialist Presidential Candidates Least Appealing

Now if he was an atheist it is likely that he would be done.

 

[RDU Irish]

Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination | FiveThirtyEight

This is important. If Rubio wins Florida or Kasich wins Ohio, it becomes more-likely-than-not that Trump goes to the convention with less than a majority of delegates.

Kasich wins Ohio he will cave in a millisecond to Trump's offer of VP. Plus, we seem to be ignoring the little fact that Trump is well ahead of Rubio in Florida polls. Recent polls have Trump up 16% to 20% over Rubio, accept the inevitable folks.

Kasich as the adult in the room with Trump is about as solid of a ticket as Republicans could as for right now. Kasich is no stranger to politics. Christie already punched his meal ticket. Rubio and Cruz will be on the outside looking in.

 

[yankeehater]

Thank you Uncle Mitt.

The goal isn't to convert Trump supporters, we just need to make sure no one else joins the train. That speech, combined with a Rubio / Cruz ticket, could turn the race.

Then what was the point of his speech. It will only fire up the Trump supporters even more as Mitt Romney is the epitome of the Republican establishment.

 

[wizards8507]

Kasich wins Ohio he will cave in a millisecond to Trump's offer of VP.

It doesn't matter, that's not how the convention works. Those delegates would be pledged to Kasich and would be obligated to vote for him on the first ballot. They can't just show up and vote for Trump even if Kasich drops out. Once the first ballot shows Trump with less than a majority, the delegates are freed but it's officially a contested convention at that point.

Plus, we seem to be ignoring the little fact that Trump is well ahead of Rubio in Florida polls. Recent polls have Trump up 16% to 20% over Rubio, accept the inevitable folks.

Word around the campfire is that internal polling is showing those numbers to be wildly inaccurate, just like the polls that showed Trump winning or competing in Texas. Trump under performs in closed primaries.

Then what was the point of his speech. It will only fire up the Trump supporters even more as Mitt Romney is the epitome of the Republican establishment.

The establishment's strategy seems to be Rubio via a contested convention. Romney's speech is an attempt to coordinate the #NeverTrump people in pursuit of that goal. Rather than trying to beat Trump with a single alternative candidate, they hope to deny him the nomination via a Kasich win in Ohio and/or a Rubio win in Florida.

 

[yankeehater]

What? Not true at all. The only way to get elected in this country is to talk about your relationship with God.

In U.S., Socialist Presidential Candidates Least Appealing

Now if he was an atheist it is likely that he would be done.

Maybe the gentleman I mentioned had seen this poll. I am thinking most consider Cruz to be Evangelical and they are one of the lowest in the poll. He did mention most American would vote for a Jew (Sanders) or a Muslim first. Being a socialist hurts Sanders more.

 

[pkt77242]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-republican/

This is 538's look at the Florida Republican Presidential Primary.

 

[pkt77242]

Maybe the gentleman I mentioned had seen this poll. I am thinking most consider Cruz to be Evangelical and they are one of the lowest in the poll. He did mention most American would vote for a Jew (Sanders) or a Muslim first. Being a socialist hurts Sanders more.

Um but most people wouldn't vote a Muslim first.

That poll shows only 60% of people would vote for a Muslim and 38% would not while 73% of people would vote for an Evangelical and 25% would not. That is a pretty significant difference.

Also this poll was taken 9 months or so ago, I bet the percent of people willing to vote for a Muslim has since dropped.

 

[RDU Irish]

Um but most people wouldn't vote a Muslim first.

That poll shows only 60% of people would vote for a Muslim and 38% would not while 73% of people would vote for an Evangelical and 25% would not. That is a pretty significant difference.

Also this poll was taken 9 months or so ago, I bet the percent of people willing to vote for a Muslim has since dropped.

Duh, Obama won didn't he?

 

[EddytoNow]

Kasich wins Ohio he will cave in a millisecond to Trump's offer of VP. Plus, we seem to be ignoring the little fact that Trump is well ahead of Rubio in Florida polls. Recent polls have Trump up 16% to 20% over Rubio, accept the inevitable folks.

Kasich as the adult in the room with Trump is about as solid of a ticket as Republicans could as for right now. Kasich is no stranger to politics. Christie already punched his meal ticket. Rubio and Cruz will be on the outside looking in.

I think Kasich is smart enough to look at his future long-term. Does he really want to be associated with Trump? If Trump gets thumped in the Fall, Kasich may emerge as the leading Republican candidate in 2020. He has been very careful not to offend his fellow Republican primary candidates. He is the anti-Trump so to speak. If Trump somehow gets elected in 2016, his presidency is likely to be a disaster opening the way for Kasich in 2020.

Hillary would most likely not turn to Sanders as her VP candidate, and I do not think he would compromise his ideals to be Robin to her Batman. She will look for someone younger that can help lock down the same younger vote that is intrigued by Bernie. She will look to Booker or someone similar. Her choice will have to be a loyal member of the DNC or at minimum a loyal foot-soldier who is willing to stay in the background for four years.

If the Republicans play with the rules to prevent Trump from getting the nomination, they will lose a good chunk of Trump's supporters. And they need Trump's supporters in key battleground states, such as Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

 

[RDU Irish]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-republican/

This is 538's look at the Florida Republican Presidential Primary.

Hey Wiz - smell some coffee.

 

[pkt77242]

I really wish that the Democrats had someone between Hillary and Sanders. Someone a little more liberal, likable and trustworthy than HRC and someone a little more pragmatic than Sanders.

Also if HRC wins she is picking one of the two Castro brothers from Texas as her VP.

 

[RDU Irish]

I think Kasich is smart enough to look at his future long-term. Does he really want to be associated with Trump? If Trump gets thumped in the Fall, Kasich may emerge as the leading Republican candidate in 2020. He has been very careful not to offend his fellow Republican primary candidates. He is the anti-Trump so to speak. If Trump somehow gets elected in 2016, his presidency is likely to be a disaster opening the way for Kasich in 2020.

Hillary would most likely not turn to Sanders as her VP candidate, and I do not think he would compromise his ideals to be Robin to her Batman. She will look for someone younger that can help lock down the same younger vote that is intrigued by Bernie. She will look to Booker or someone similar.

If the Republicans play with the rules to prevent Trump from getting the nomination, they will lose a good chunk of Trump's supporters. And they need Trump's supporters in key battleground states, such as Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

For one, he would be waiting until 2024 - do you really think the incumbent would not run? Plus, I don't think Kasich has the charisma to successfully run as anything but a VP virtually uncontested. Then consider the probability of Trump being impeached and Kasich has a better shot as Trump's VP than he does in a crowded field. Take the shot when you have it b/c it is too easy to lose relevance and/or get passed by a rising star if you lie in the weeds too long.

 

[yankeehater]

Um but most people wouldn't vote a Muslim first.

That poll shows only 60% of people would vote for a Muslim and 38% would not while 73% of people would vote for an Evangelical and 25% would not. That is a pretty significant difference.

Also this poll was taken 9 months or so ago, I bet the percent of people willing to vote for a Muslim has since dropped.

I think the numbers are a lot closer than I would have thought. I do have a few friends that are agnostic now (raised Catholic as was I) who literally see most Evangelicals in the same light as extreme Muslim terrorist. They have bought into the stereotype of the Bible thumping right wing wacko and blame every problem or shooting in the US on them.

 

[yankeehater]

I really wish that the Democrats had someone between Hillary and Sanders. Someone a little more liberal, likable and trustworthy than HRC and someone a little more pragmatic than Sanders.

Also if HRC wins she is picking one of the two Castro brothers from Cuba as her VP.

FIFY

 

[RDU Irish]

I think the numbers are a lot closer than I would have thought. I do have a few friends that are agnostic now (raised Catholic as was I) who literally see most Evangelicals in the same light as extreme Muslim terrorist. They have bought into the stereotype of the Bible thumping right wing wacko and blame every problem or shooting in the US on them.

Make those claims about Muslims and you would be called racist. Make them about Evangelicals and... well I'm guessing you get a lot of reps from the regulars for that post. Not that you are wrong at all with your assessment.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I really wish that the Democrats had someone between Hillary and Sanders. Someone a little more liberal, likable and trustworthy than HRC and someone a little more pragmatic than Sanders.

Also if HRC wins she is picking one of the two Castro brothers from Texas as her VP.

Or Booker.

 

[GoIrish41]

I really wish that the Democrats had someone between Hillary and Sanders. Someone a little more liberal, likable and trustworthy than HRC and someone a little more pragmatic than Sanders.

Also if HRC wins she is picking one of the two Castro brothers from Texas as her VP.

I thought the same thing about the Castro brothers pre-Trump, but What would that get her at this point? Trump has pretty much guaranteed the Latino vote is overwhelmingly going to team blue no matter who the candidate is, and it's not like the Castros will bring a victory to her in Texas. I think there is nothing to gain there.

 

[GoIrish41]

The only problem with your "Bernie setting aside his differences for the good of the Democratic party" idea is, if Drumpf wins the nomination, Hillary probably won't need Bernie's help.

The polls I've seen have a Hillary beating Drumpf head to head, and with the Republicans attacking Trump from all angles, I wouldn't be surprised if his supporters to start to see through him. (although, I would have thought the drop off would have been bigger by now).

If Hillary is able to beat Drumpf head to head, I doubt she'll even want Bernie. And I can pretty much guarantee Bernie wouldn't approach her about the idea.

If the race is close, maybe Bernie tries to save the party. But I see this scenario as a slim possibility.

Look at voter turnout in the GOP primaries. It's setting records in every state. Not so much for the Dems.

 

[wizards8507]

Hey Wiz - smell some coffee.

1. It's a "polls plus" forecast, which includes the outlier poll that shows Trump WAY ahead.

2. Trump losing Ohio OR Florida is a problem for him. He doesn't have to lose both.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Meanwhile, Obama's approval rating is creeping toward even and is higher than it has been in about 2 1/2 years. If he's above 48%, the Democratic nominee will be very difficult to beat.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

ETA: It's actually more like 50%. And I think Trump is helping him, actually.

Clinton’s Real Opponent: Barack Obama - POLITICO Magazine