2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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Buster Bluth

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In response to a reporter question, Kasich said tonight he will not make personal attacks on Trump.
It's funny that Kasich's gameplan has been to be the nice, calm candidate when I'm real life he's an asshole in the same league as any of these guys. He's playing his part well but it's sorta eerie seeing it while knowing some of his history.
 
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Buster Bluth

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Shot down by whom? And why would it make zero sense? Because they disagreed while campaigning? It is a pretty standard presidential election year tactic ... just ask Bush Sr. who dubbed Reagan's economic policies as "voodoo economics." Al Gore was picked by Bill Clinton after failing to beat him in the primaries. Joe Biden was chosen by Obama after losing in the primaries. I would argue that with Hillary and Bernie, it makes much more sense because he has far more support than did any of those three during their presidential runs. In all these cases, including Bernie as VP, this helps the candidate win ... and in this case, helps keep the antichrist out of the Oval Office.
It's tough because Bernie isn't going to compromise on his beliefs to play the #2 role very well. He's not going to do well sidestepping questions about Clinton that he disagrees with her on. That gives the GOP a target to exploit in debates.
 

EddytoNow

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It's funny that Kasich's gameplan has been to be the nice, calm candidate when I'm real life he's an asshole in the same league as any of these guys. He's playing his part well but it's sorta eerie seeing it while knowing some of his history.

I've been thinking the same thing for several months. However, his numbers are so low the media has given him a pass. When it comes to policies, he's in the same league as Walker, Perry, and others who have already dropped out. He's no friend to the working class or the middle class.
 

Polish Leppy 22

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Follow the racism, not education. There you will find your answers.

lol are you saying that Mass, one of the most liberal/ educated states in the nation is populated by a bunch of Trump supporting racists?

I used to live up there: most people appreciate people who shoot straight, tell it how it is, and don't mind throwing a few punches if need be (especially if they're from South Boston). Is racism out there? Yes. Are all Trump supporters racist? No, and I'm not a Trump supporter.
 

IrishJayhawk

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lol are you saying that Mass, one of the most liberal/ educated states in the nation is populated by a bunch of Trump supporting racists?

I used to live up there: most people appreciate people who shoot straight, tell it how it is, and don't mind throwing a few punches if need be (especially if they're from South Boston). Is racism out there? Yes. Are all Trump supporters racist? No, and I'm not a Trump supporter.

Let's keep some perspective. Republicans cast 631,000 votes in the primary in MA. Democrats cast 1.2 million, with Hillary getting nearly as many votes as there were Republicans who voted (603,000). Trump got 311,313 votes. He would have lost to the second place finisher in the democratic primary by 275,000 votes.

Massachusetts Primary Election Results 2016 - The New York Times

There are certainly many people voting for Trump who are racist. Doesn't mean they all are. But I do think he's the most attractive candidate for racists. Do you think that's a stretch?
 

Irish#1

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4jqHwyU.jpg
 

Irish#1

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Bruce Ackerman at the LA Times just published an op-ed called A presidential run by Michael Bloomberg could plunge the country into a constitutional crisis.



Interesting notes on the 12th amendment.

Given past history, an independent is simply wasting their time. There aren't enough voters who would step outside of their normal affiliation to vote for an independent. They might garner some votes, but not enough to impact the results to the point it would hurt either candidate enough and cause them to lose.
 

GoIrish41

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It's tough because Bernie isn't going to compromise on his beliefs to play the #2 role very well. He's not going to do well sidestepping questions about Clinton that he disagrees with her on. That gives the GOP a target to exploit in debates.

It won't be easy, but if Hillary wants to win, she has to bring Bernie's supporters into the fold. He made an interesting remark during his Super Tuesday speech. "If you ask for a half a loaf of bread, you are going to end up with crumbs. If you ask for a full loaf of bread, you might end up with something." The biggest attack on Bernie is that his ideas are too ambitious ... they aren't realistic. His comments lead me to believe that he knows that, but he wants to begin negotiations with everything on the table, instead of conceding ground from the beginning. The disagreements he has with Hillary are not insurmountable. They have the same goals in mind, it is a matter of where the negotiations with those on the right and center right begin.

His biggest attack on her is about campaign finances, and that she takes money from the big financial institutions ... presumably for something in return. Republicans other than, perhaps, Trump will be able to make similar attacks. But Trump has so many other flaws, and has said so many outrageous, offensive and racist things that can be exploited. And the more outrageous and bigoted he gets, the more republican voters seem to fall in line with him. Some of it is accepting the inevitable on their part, I suspect. But there are enough Republicans who will not support a Trump presidency that he will not be able to unite the party fully to his cause (whatever the hell that might be).

In order to take on the Trump phenomenon, Hillary needs to solidify the support of all left-leaning voters. A pretty big chunk of those voters are in the Bernie camp, and if she is going to win, she needs them. For his part, I suspect Bernie understands this dynamic, and he is as put off by the prospect of a Trump presidency as anyone in the country. If he is the key to a Hillary victory, or more importantly a Trump defeat, I believe he will fall on his sword when the time comes. But even if he doesn't, Hillary needs to make overtures toward him to bring him into the fold. His support is heavily with young people -- many of them who have little experience with the political system. If their guy isn't on the ticket, many of them will bail on the election. If that happens, Trumps chances of winning rise. Bernie does not want that to happen any more than anybody.

Conventional wisdom prior to the Trump ascension was that she would choose one of the Castro brothers, to solidify the vital hispanic vote. Trump's racist rhetoric has made that a moot point. Given her widespread unpopularity (whether rational and realistic or not) he needs energy and enthusiasm in her campaign, because Trump's army of mouth breathers will come out in droves to the polls. If Hillary inserts another establishment stooge as her running mate, she will lose the election and we will be faced with a Trump presidency. I mean, the Republican voter turnout for the primaries has been off the charts. We can convince ourselves that that is because so many anti-Trump voters are showing up to keep him from office, but we would be lying to ourselves. In my view, Bernie is the only choice that will ensure the party has a unified party to face Trump in the general.

It will be tough, certainly, to overcome the jabs Hillary and Bernie have thrown at each other in the primaries. And it will be tough for Bernie to moderate his strong beliefs to support a centrist candidate, but I believe he can manage that pretty easy. I mean, they will be running against a guy who has Republicans in open rebellion at the prospect of his candidacy. Each new day brings a handful of new Republican leaders who say they will not support him in the general. His primary opponents have called him a con man, a racist, a danger to the country with a tiny penis. Any disagreements that Hillary and Bernie have had will be small potatoes compared to the bombs that are and will continue to be lobbed at Trump from his own side.

The Clintons are all about winning ... and Bernie as VP gives them the best chance to win. The at least need to put the ball in Bernie's court. I'm not saying he'll pick it up and run with it, but the overture will help some, I suspect. And if he accepts the VP nod, I feel a whole lot better about keeping Trump from the Oval Office. I think there is little doubt that this will be a topic of discussion as the fate of Bernie becomes clearer and we head toward the Democratic Convention. Anyway, that's how I see it.
 

GATTACA!

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It won't be easy, but if Hillary wants to win, she has to bring Bernie's supporters into the fold. He made an interesting remark during his Super Tuesday speech. "If you ask for a half a loaf of bread, you are going to end up with crumbs. If you ask for a full loaf of bread, you might end up with something." The biggest attack on Bernie is that his ideas are too ambitious ... they aren't realistic. His comments lead me to believe that he knows that, but he wants to begin negotiations with everything on the table, instead of conceding ground from the beginning. The disagreements he has with Hillary are not insurmountable. They have the same goals in mind, it is a matter of where the negotiations with those on the right and center right begin.

Hmmmmm sounds like he might own a copy of "The Art of The Deal"
 

GoIrish41

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Ted Cruz & Marco Rubio — That’s the Ticket!

Cruz-Rubio or Rubio-Cruz is gaining momentum in the #NeverTrump conservative press. It's taking different forms with some suggesting a pledge from either candidate to name the other as the VP depending on who wins and others suggesting one of them drop out immediately.

If the best hope is a contested convention, it is probably better if nobody drops out and they keep splitting votes to keep Trump from gaining enough delegates.
 

wizards8507

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If the best hope is a contested convention, it is probably better if nobody drops out and they keep splitting votes to keep Trump from gaining enough delegates.
That's not the best hope. I think either candidate would beat Trump if the other dropped out, especially if the one who drops out endorses the one who remains and there's a public VP promise.

Sent from my Galaxy Note4 using Tapatalk.
 
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Cackalacky

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Ted Cruz & Marco Rubio — That’s the Ticket!

Cruz-Rubio or Rubio-Cruz is gaining momentum in the #NeverTrump conservative press. It's taking different forms with some suggesting a pledge from either candidate to name the other as the VP depending on who wins and others suggesting one of them drop out immediately.

I personally find Cruz anywhere near the White House much more gross than Trump. His war on science and NASA is particularly egregious. His dad believes he was picked by God to be our President. Dangerous stuff on several fronts.

Rubio also appears to be more and more an establishment do-boy as this primary season goes on. I really don't see difference between him and Bush.....
 

wizards8507

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I personally find Cruz anywhere near the White House much more gross than Trump. His war on science and NASA is particularly egregious. His dad believes he was picked by God to be our President. Dangerous stuff on several fronts.
I disagree, but even if I didn't... wouldn't you at least prefer the guy who takes a position and sticks with it rather than one whose positions could be anywhere from anarchy to fascism to isolationism to interventionism?

Also, lots of Americans find nothing dangerous, gross, or egregious about religion and public expressions thereof.

Rubio also appears to be more and more an establishment do-boy as this primary season goes on. I really don't see difference between him and Bush.....
I'm very much on the fence about him as well. I think he has sound principles but he's a bit more flexible with them than I'd like. I don't really agree with the attack that he's "establishment" just because he's the preferred candidate of the establishment. I think he's only establishment in the context of a race that also includes Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

Besides, Rubio's establishment-ness should actually make him appealing to liberals and Democrats because it manifests itself on the immigration issue. Liberals want amnesty and so do donor-class Republicans. Rubio's Gang of Eight membership (an establishment stance if there ever was one) has turned many movement conservatives off to him, but wouldn't it make him more appealing to you?

From a strictly political perspective, Rubio-Cruz would be stupid amounts of successful. Maybe not Reagan landslide levels, but I think an easy GOP victory.
 

IrishJayhawk

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I personally find Cruz anywhere near the White House much more gross than Trump. His war on science and NASA is particularly egregious. His dad believes he was picked by God to be our President. Dangerous stuff on several fronts.

Rubio also appears to be more and more an establishment do-boy as this primary season goes on. I really don't see difference between him and Bush.....

I agree. Cruz is scary. Trump is crazy, but he doesn't believe what he's saying. I think Cruz actually does. That's horrifying to me.
 

FightingIrishLover7

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Follow the racism, not education. There you will find your answers.
Sorry, for the misleading post (it was admittedly open-ended).

What I meant by "follow the racism" was that the correlation between Trump supporters and racism is stronger than that of education.

You could find highly educated and lowely educated both supporting and not supporting Trump.

However, I'll venture to say (with much confidence) those with underlying (or active) racism, will have a much stronger correlation with respect to Trump support.

Also, I want to take a minute to explain what I mean by racism too. I'm hoping there are very, very few "active" racists left in this country. I'm not talking about people belittling minorities. What I'm referring to is underlying racism, that people don't even notice.

I know too many people (most of my old white family members) that feel threatened (although they rarely admit it, but they certainly are feeling that) by minorities (especially with regards to "Asian job stealers").

What they are experiencing is the result of equality. No one is "attacking" white people. What is happening is, these people have lived their whole life with "white privilege" (without most of them ever knowing it). Now, white privilege is losing its power. It's becoming a more even playing feel, and they are mistaking this evening out as a "threat".

Those that believe other races are "attacking" white people, are in fact racist. This type of racism is probably very, very prevalent in our country. And this is the type of racism that is dangerous with respect to fueling a populist like Trump.
 

GoIrish41

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I disagree, but even if I didn't... wouldn't you at least prefer the guy who takes a position and sticks with it rather than one whose positions could be anywhere from anarchy to fascism to isolationism to interventionism?

Also, lots of Americans find nothing dangerous, gross, or egregious about religion and public expressions thereof.


I'm very much on the fence about him as well. I think he has sound principles but he's a bit more flexible with them than I'd like. I don't really agree with the attack that he's "establishment" just because he's the preferred candidate of the establishment. I think he's only establishment in the context of a race that also includes Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

Besides, Rubio's establishment-ness should actually make him appealing to liberals and Democrats because it manifests itself on the immigration issue. Liberals want amnesty and so do donor-class Republicans. Rubio's Gang of Eight membership (an establishment stance if there ever was one) has turned many movement conservatives off to him, but wouldn't it make him more appealing to you?

From a strictly political perspective, Rubio-Cruz would be stupid amounts of successful. Maybe not Reagan landslide levels, but I think an easy GOP victory.

I think you are underestimating how much people dislike Cruz!
 

wizards8507

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I think you are underestimating how much people dislike Cruz!
Which is why I think Rubio-Cruz would be more politically effective than Cruz-Rubio. Rubio-Cruz puts the likable guy in front with the principled conservative on the ticket to keep the base's enthusiasm up.

I also think you're underestimating how much people dislike Clinton.
 

IrishJayhawk

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I disagree, but even if I didn't... wouldn't you at least prefer the guy who takes a position and sticks with it rather than one whose positions could be anywhere from anarchy to fascism to isolationism to interventionism?

Also, lots of Americans find nothing dangerous, gross, or egregious about religion and public expressions thereof.

It's not that he's religious. I'm a regular church-going, religious person. It's that he wants to legislate based on his particular brand of religion. That's scary to me.
 

IrishJayhawk

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Which is why I think Rubio-Cruz would be more politically effective than Cruz-Rubio. Rubio-Cruz puts the likable guy in front with the principled conservative on the ticket to keep the base's enthusiasm up.

I also think you're underestimating how much people dislike Clinton.

Ted Cruz Favorable Rating - Polls - HuffPost Pollster

Hillary Clinton Favorable Rating - Polls - HuffPost Pollster

Looked it up. Thought I'd share. Hillary's disapproval is higher, but Cruz' disapproval is going up quickly. His approval rating is lower (and dropping).
 

FightingIrishLover7

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Shot down by whom? And why would it make zero sense? Because they disagreed while campaigning? It is a pretty standard presidential election year tactic ... just ask Bush Sr. who dubbed Reagan's economic policies as "voodoo economics." Al Gore was picked by Bill Clinton after failing to beat him in the primaries. Joe Biden was chosen by Obama after losing in the primaries. I would argue that with Hillary and Bernie, it makes much more sense because he has far more support than did any of those three during their presidential runs. In all these cases, including Bernie as VP, this helps the candidate win ... and in this case, helps keep the antichrist out of the Oval Office.
I thought I've heard "pundits" say that Bernie's team has already said he won't work with her, considering how abrasive her campaign tactics have been. In fact I remember someone (can't remember who, some pundit on CNN) saying there's a better chance of Bernie running independent than with Hillary.

But of course, with the media, these could all be lies.

Also, when I say "doesn't make sense", I meant from Bernie's perspective. Of course Hillary would love to swoop up his supporters, that makes perfect sense.

But, I believe, above all things, Bernie wants to start a movement. Even if that means he won't be president. He really does want a democratic socialist country.

If he ran with Hillary, this would all but end his hopes of a political revolution. He would be siding with the "same old same old" democratic "Obama" agendas.

I don't think Bernie is desperate for a role as a vice president, he wants change and seems to have no interest in submitting to Hillary's agenda.
 

IrishJayhawk

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2012:
"It's my honor, real honor, to endorse Mitt Romney," Trump said, with Romney and his wife standing nearby. Calling Romney "tough" and "smart," Trump said, "he's not going to continue to allow bad things to happen to this country."

Romney responded by praising Trump for "an extraordinary ability to understand how our economy works and to create jobs" and for being "one of the few who has stood up to say China is cheating" in international trade.

2016:
Romney branded Trump as "a phony, a fraud" whose "promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University" in his speech.

Earlier Thursday, Trump dismissed Romney as "a stiff" who "didn't know what he was doing" as the party's candidate in 2012 and blew a chance to beat President Barack Obama. "People are energized by what I'm saying" in the campaign and turning out in remarkable numbers to vote, Trump told NBC's "Today."
 

drayer54

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I "love" all of the people who are so outraged that people will vote for Trump and pretend that the obvious rational solution is the Hillary. Just awful.
 

drayer54

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2012:
"It's my honor, real honor, to endorse Mitt Romney," Trump said, with Romney and his wife standing nearby. Calling Romney "tough" and "smart," Trump said, "he's not going to continue to allow bad things to happen to this country."

Romney responded by praising Trump for "an extraordinary ability to understand how our economy works and to create jobs" and for being "one of the few who has stood up to say China is cheating" in international trade.

2016:
Romney branded Trump as "a phony, a fraud" whose "promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University" in his speech.

Earlier Thursday, Trump dismissed Romney as "a stiff" who "didn't know what he was doing" as the party's candidate in 2012 and blew a chance to beat President Barack Obama. "People are energized by what I'm saying" in the campaign and turning out in remarkable numbers to vote, Trump told NBC's "Today."

He was a reasonable campaign supporter then. Now he is the guy threatening to destroy the party. This isn't some crazy flip flop. You speak nice of that weird relative when they aren't harming anyone.... but not so much after their murder trial.
 

FightingIrishLover7

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He was a reasonable campaign supporter then. Now he is the guy threatening to destroy the party. This isn't some crazy flip flop. You speak nice of that weird relative when they aren't harming anyone.... but not so much after their murder trial.
This.

In 2012 I don't think Trump was leading polls, while talking about "building walls", "Muslim databases", "killing the families of jihadists", etc.

This was just another celebrity endorsement for Romney, don't look into it anymore than you would that of Jamie Foxx endorsing Hillary Clinton.
 

wizards8507

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He was a reasonable campaign supporter then. Now he is the guy threatening to destroy the party. This isn't some crazy flip flop. You speak nice of that weird relative when they aren't harming anyone.... but not so much after their murder trial.

This.

In 2012 I don't think Trump was leading polls, while talking about "building walls", "Muslim databases", "killing the families of jihadists", etc.

This was just another celebrity endorsement for Romney, don't look into it anymore than you would that of Jamie Foxx endorsing Hillary Clinton.
Exactly. Then-Senator Obama and Mrs. Clinton had some nasty words for each other in 2007/2008, too.
 
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