2016 Presidential Horse Race

[tussin]

Former Mexican President Vicente Fox to Trump: I'm Not Paying "For That F***ing Wall" | Video | RealClearPolitics

Yeah, I never understood why Mexico would ever pay for it. Has anyone ever pushed Trump on this to the point where he actually responded thoughtfully?

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Yeah, I never understood why Mexico would ever pay for it. Has anyone ever pushed Trump on this to the point where he actually responded thoughtfully?

You just answered your own question.

His response has always been to tout his negotiation skills.

 

[Rizzophil]

Former Mexican President Vicente Fox to Trump: I'm Not Paying "For That F***ing Wall" | Video | RealClearPolitics

We are going to start taxing imports at a higher rate so that America doesn't keep losing business

 

[wizards8507]

Yeah, I never understood why Mexico would ever pay for it. Has anyone ever pushed Trump on this to the point where he actually responded thoughtfully?

I haven't seen it explained by Trump, but it's been explained by some of his surrogates that we'd pay for it by withholding foreign aid. We send Mexico hundreds of millions of dollars per year. It wouldn't take long for us to basically withhold the few billion the wall will cost. No, Mexico wouldn't write us a check, we'd just write them a lot less checks than we otherwise would have.

 

[kmoose]

Yeah, I never understood why Mexico would ever pay for it. Has anyone ever pushed Trump on this to the point where he actually responded thoughtfully?

I'm betting that he is planning to deduct the cost of the wall from the amount of financial aid that the US gives Mexico.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I haven't seen it explained by Trump, but it's been explained by some of his surrogates that we'd pay for it by withholding foreign aid. We send Mexico hundreds of millions of dollars per year. It wouldn't take long for us to basically withhold the few billion the wall will cost. No, Mexico wouldn't write us a check, we'd just write them a lot less checks than we otherwise would have.

That thing would cost more than a few billion, likely north of 50 billion.

And wouldn't solve the issue.

 

[kmoose]

That thing would cost more than a few billion, likely north of 50 billion.

And wouldn't solve the issue.

which issue is that?

 

[Buster Bluth]

which issue is that?

One that doesn't even exist right now: illegals sneaking across the border.

 

[kmoose]

One that doesn't even exist right now: illegals sneaking across the border.

You don't think that there are illegals sneaking across the border?

 

[wizards8507]

That thing would cost more than a few billion, likely north of 50 billion.

And wouldn't solve the issue.

Those estimates are absurd and based on a wall that spans the entire border. That's unnecessary and nobody is suggesting it. Much of the border has natural barriers (mountains and shit).

 

[GoIrish41]

That thing would cost more than a few billion, likely north of 50 billion.

And wouldn't solve the issue.

Oh sure, it might be completely ineffective but it would be an enduring symbol of American benevolence.

 

[kmoose]

Oh sure, it might be completely ineffective but it would be a enduring symbol of American benevolence.

Better that, than this:

 

[woolybug25]

Better that, than this:

Well... they'll both be cement, buried in the ground and symbols of death.

 

[GoIrish41]

Better that, than this:

The last Mexican to attack the United States southern border was Pancho Villa in 1913.

 

[pkt77242]

Those estimates are absurd and based on a wall that spans the entire border. That's unnecessary and nobody is suggesting it. Much of the border has natural barriers (mountains and shit).

Wrong. When the US built a single layer border fence over 670 miles it cost almost 2.5 billion. Most of the talk now is of building a 2 layer fence which requires more land, more supplies, etc.

Lets do some math. First off of the 1933 miles of the US/Mexico border lets say about half would not need a fence (though I disagree because I don't think that mountains would stop people from crossing the border).

So lets say 1000 miles of fence. We have built 670 so we need to build 330 more and we also need to double layer the original fence.

So to double layer the original fence it is another 2.5 billion plus another 2.5 billion for the other 330 miles. So we are at 5 Billion. Land, supplies and labor costs have gone up since then, plus you are buying significantly more land (there is an area between the first and second fence that was not needed with a single layer fence). So lets increase it by 25%. So now we are at 6.25 Billion. That is the conservative estimate.

Lets say that we want to add a single layer fence to the other 933 miles, you are talking about another 3 Billion or so in cost. So now we are approaching 10 Billion, and closer to 15 Billion if we double layer the rest.

Finally lets be honest, we will be making so many repairs to that fence that upkeep will be through the roof.

To compare my numbers the GAO in 2009 estimated that building a fence to stop pedestrians would average 3.9 Million per mile. So that is about 7.5 Billion for 1933 miles and after you add in the rise in costs of labor, land and supplies, it makes sense that the project will come in at 10-15 Billion at best, and that isn't even getting into eminent domain questions, lawsuit over it, etc. Also that doesn't factor in repairs which will be frequent.


ETA: Disclaimer, I did the math in my head so sorry if I fucked something up.

 

[Cackalacky]

The last Mexican to attack the United States southern border was Pancho Villa in 1913.

 

[GoIrish41]

I feel like we're living on borrowed time ...

 

[NDVirginia19]

Wrong. When the US built a single layer border fence over 670 miles it cost almost 2.5 billion. Most of the talk now is of building a 2 layer fence which requires more land, more supplies, etc.

Lets do some math. First off of the 1933 miles of the US/Mexico border lets say about half would not need a fence (though I disagree because I don't think that mountains would stop people from crossing the border).

So lets say 1000 miles of fence. We have built 670 so we need to build 330 more and we also need to double layer the original fence.

So to double layer the original fence it is another 2.5 billion plus another 2.5 billion for the other 330 miles. So we are at 5 Billion. Land, supplies and labor costs have gone up since then, plus you are buying significantly more land (there is an area between the first and second fence that was not needed with a single layer fence). So lets increase it by 25%. So now we are at 6.25 Billion. That is the conservative estimate.

Lets say that we want to add a single layer fence to the other 933 miles, you are talking about another 3 Billion or so in cost. So now we are approaching 10 Billion, and closer to 15 Billion if we double layer the rest.

Finally lets be honest, we will be making so many repairs to that fence that upkeep will be through the roof.

To compare my numbers the GAO in 2009 estimated that building a fence to stop pedestrians would average 3.9 Million per mile. So that is about 7.5 Billion for 1933 miles and after you add in the rise in costs of labor, land and supplies, it makes sense that the project will come in at 10-15 Billion at best, and that isn't even getting into eminent domain questions, lawsuit over it, etc. Also that doesn't factor in repairs which will be frequent.


ETA: Disclaimer, I did the math in my head so sorry if I fucked something up.

Somebody tried to tell me that it would be 90 ft high and 60 ft deep, and only cost 6 billion. What a fucking joke his supporters are

 

[wizards8507]

Wrong. When the US built a single layer border fence over 670 miles it cost almost 2.5 billion. Most of the talk now is of building a 2 layer fence which requires more land, more supplies, etc.

Lets do some math. First off of the 1933 miles of the US/Mexico border lets say about half would not need a fence (though I disagree because I don't think that mountains would stop people from crossing the border).

So lets say 1000 miles of fence. We have built 670 so we need to build 330 more and we also need to double layer the original fence.

So to double layer the original fence it is another 2.5 billion plus another 2.5 billion for the other 330 miles. So we are at 5 Billion. Land, supplies and labor costs have gone up since then, plus you are buying significantly more land (there is an area between the first and second fence that was not needed with a single layer fence). So lets increase it by 25%. So now we are at 6.25 Billion. That is the conservative estimate.

Lets say that we want to add a single layer fence to the other 933 miles, you are talking about another 3 Billion or so in cost. So now we are approaching 10 Billion, and closer to 15 Billion if we double layer the rest.

Finally lets be honest, we will be making so many repairs to that fence that upkeep will be through the roof.

To compare my numbers the GAO in 2009 estimated that building a fence to stop pedestrians would average 3.9 Million per mile. So that is about 7.5 Billion for 1933 miles and after you add in the rise in costs of labor, land and supplies, it makes sense that the project will come in at 10-15 Billion at best, and that isn't even getting into eminent domain questions, lawsuit over it, etc. Also that doesn't factor in repairs which will be frequent.


ETA: Disclaimer, I did the math in my head so sorry if I fucked something up.

You're calling me wrong and then you agree with me. Buster, to whom I was responding, said "above $50 billion."

 

[GoIrish41]

Somebody tried to tell me that it would be 90 ft high and 60 ft deep, and only cost 6 billion. What a fucking joke his supporters are

In fairness, they are planning to hire illegals to build it ... and you don't have to pay them as much.

 

[kmoose]

The last Mexican to attack the United States southern border was Pancho Villa in 1913.

What does that have to do with anything?

 

[kmoose]

Wrong. When the US built a single layer border fence over 670 miles it cost almost 2.5 billion. Most of the talk now is of building a 2 layer fence which requires more land, more supplies, etc.

Lets do some math. First off of the 1933 miles of the US/Mexico border lets say about half would not need a fence (though I disagree because I don't think that mountains would stop people from crossing the border).

So lets say 1000 miles of fence. We have built 670 so we need to build 330 more and we also need to double layer the original fence.

So to double layer the original fence it is another 2.5 billion plus another 2.5 billion for the other 330 miles. So we are at 5 Billion. Land, supplies and labor costs have gone up since then, plus you are buying significantly more land (there is an area between the first and second fence that was not needed with a single layer fence). So lets increase it by 25%. So now we are at 6.25 Billion. That is the conservative estimate.

Lets say that we want to add a single layer fence to the other 933 miles, you are talking about another 3 Billion or so in cost. So now we are approaching 10 Billion, and closer to 15 Billion if we double layer the rest.

Finally lets be honest, we will be making so many repairs to that fence that upkeep will be through the roof.

To compare my numbers the GAO in 2009 estimated that building a fence to stop pedestrians would average 3.9 Million per mile. So that is about 7.5 Billion for 1933 miles and after you add in the rise in costs of labor, land and supplies, it makes sense that the project will come in at 10-15 Billion at best, and that isn't even getting into eminent domain questions, lawsuit over it, etc. Also that doesn't factor in repairs which will be frequent.


ETA: Disclaimer, I did the math in my head so sorry if I fucked something up.

How do you know that the government didn't get easements for future expansion with the original land purchase(s)?

 

[pkt77242]

You're calling me wrong and then you agree with me. Buster, to whom I was responding, said "above $50 billion."

I think that it is somewhere between your 5 Billion and Buster's high number. Also that projection is a relatively simple fence and Trump has promised to build an even "better" fence (whatever that is) then what the government was already doing. So I am not sure how to build that into the projections (ok I actually do but I am not going to build a model to estimate how much it would cost because I don't care that much).

Basically, you are too low and Buster is too high, well unless Trump decides to build the Great Wall of the US in which case 50 Billion might be conservative.

ETA: Also repair/upkeep costs needed to be added to it if you want to do a total cost of ownership analysis.

 

[wizards8507]

The last Mexican to attack the United States southern border was Pancho Villa in 1913.

Mexicans invade via the southern border on a daily basis.

I think that it is somewhere between your 5 Billion and Buster's high number. Also that projection is a relatively simple fence and Trump has promised to build an even "better" fence (whatever that is) then what the government was already doing. So I am not sure how to build that into the projections (ok I actually do but I am not going to build a model to estimate how much it would cost because I don't care that much).

Basically, you are too low and Buster is too high, well unless Trump decides to build the Great Wall of the US in which case 50 Billion might be conservative.

I still suspect it can be done more cheaply. The amount it costs the government to do something isn't necessarily what it should cost for them to do something.

ETA: Also repair/upkeep costs needed to be added to it if you want to do a total cost of ownership analysis.

Yes, but eliminating the burden to educate and incarcerate illegal immigrants would pay for that.

 

[GoIrish41]

What does that have to do with anything?

What does a random tombstone have to do with anything? You are suggesting it is better to build a wall at great expense to Americans to stop the inevitable attack to our southern border -- even though nothing like that has happened in more than a century. It's just nonsensical fear mongering.

 

[woolybug25]

Also that projection is a relatively simple fence and Trump has promised to build an even "better" fence (whatever that is)

Don't you mean "THE BEST WALL ANYONE HAS EVER SEEN"?

 

[pkt77242]

How do you know that the government didn't get easements for future expansion with the original land purchase(s)?

I don't know for sure but I would call it doubtful because Congress only gave them the ability to build the single layer fence, otherwise Congress would have had to pony up even more money (which doing the math of 670 miles at 3.9 Million per mile for a single layer fence would be about the 2.5 Billion that they spent). Not a guarantee by any means but it doesn't seem likely that they would have done it as the cost should be much higher (all based on assumptions provided by GAO).

 

[GoIrish41]

I think that it is somewhere between your 5 Billion and Buster's high number. Also that projection is a relatively simple fence and Trump has promised to build an even "better" fence (whatever that is) then what the government was already doing. So I am not sure how to build that into the projections (ok I actually do but I am not going to build a model to estimate how much it would cost because I don't care that much).

Basically, you are too low and Buster is too high, well unless Trump decides to build the Great Wall of the US in which case 50 Billion might be conservative.

ETA: Also repair/upkeep costs needed to be added to it if you want to do a total cost of ownership analysis.

Lets not forget the expense of feeding, housing and clothing the Nights Watch to man that monstrosity.

 

[tussin]

This isn't necessarily directed at anyone here, but it's pretty funny when I hear my liberal pals talk about how expensive it will be to build the wall, and then also mention how they support universal healthcare, expansion of social security, and free college tuition.

 

[kmoose]

I don't know for sure but I would call it doubtful because Congress only gave them the ability to build the single layer fence, otherwise Congress would have had to pony up even more money (which doing the math of 670 miles at 3.9 Million per mile for a single layer fence would be about the 2.5 Billion that they spent). Not a guarantee by any means but it doesn't seem likely that they would have done it as the cost should be much higher (all based on assumptions provided by GAO).

But you don't know that the GAO's estimate of 3.9 million per mile doesn't already include easements. Most power transmission lines, railroads, etc, have easements.... it would not surprise me if the GAO didn't include them in their initial estimates. But none of the cost really matters, since Vincente Fox is personally paying for it.