Daily Fantasy Sports

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

I'm open to any strategy suggestions for picking players.

Have you ever read the Daily Grind Down on rotogrinders.com? I highly recommend it. If you want to dig deeper, go to:

Statmuse.com: you can basically type anything into it (i.e. "Jimmy Butler game logs against Washington) and get detailed breakdowns

The easiest way to clean up your lineup and avoid deep reaches is consulting the team vs position chart. It is easy, and since I started using that (now going to more advanced stats) my profits have gone way up.

As you can see, the obvious rule of thumb is don't pick many guys when they play Utah, San Antonio, or Miami.

You can see stuff like Draymond Green has the best matchup of all big guys tonight, and Chris Bosh has a very difficult one, or James Harden is in for a tough night.

Many people would eyeball tonight, and immediately think "High scoring game, Harden goes off." Although that COULD happen, it is less probable than the eye test would make you think. It is far from a perfect system, but will definitely help sway you when on the fence about two guys.


Chart Key:

Blue= optimal matchup, pick with confidence
Green= decent matchup, pick with confidence
Yellow= mediocre matchup, pick if other advanced stats show probability of a decent game
Red= bad matchup, stay away, unless you know something

 

[Irish Insanity]

Thanks Steelhead. I'll be looking into all of that in the next few days and start using it after the all star break. I'm not looking to strike it rich (obviously it would be nice but isn't my goal), I'd just like to play and not lose my ass so I can enjoy it

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Thanks Steelhead. I'll be looking into all of that in the next few days and start using it after the all star break. I'm not looking to strike it rich (obviously it would be nice but isn't my goal), I'd just like to play and not lose my ass so I can enjoy it

Start small:

1. use the team vs position rankings for a week to help you clean up your LUs. It's easy and helps. Then.......

2. Start factoring in usage statistics to avoid reaching for guys who suck just because they have a juicy matchup. Not MPG, USAGE. BIG DIFFERENCE.

3. Religiously check winning lineups to see what is working.

4. ALWAYS pick the guy you feel will give you the most value. Don't pick a similar player you don't feel as good about because he will have a lower ownership percentage. Only be contrarian when you feel that guy will have a better night. Sure guys get lightning in a bottle nightly and win big pots, but picking a guy just because you think nobody else will is stupid. There's a reason nobody else did.

5. Speaking of value, you want at least 4.5x value from your stars, 5x value from mid-level guys, and 6x value from scrubs. To do this, multiply.

Examples:

Star: Let's say Curry is $11,000. Take the 11, and multiply by 4.5. The total is 49.5, meaning Curry will have to net you 49.5 points or more to earn his salary on your roster.

Mid-Level: Let's say Rose is $6,300. Take the 6.3, and multiply by 5. The total is 31.5, meaning Rose would have to score 31.5 points or more to earn his salary on your roster.

Scrubs: Let's say Bojan Bodanovich is $3,500. Take the 3.5, and multiply by 6. The total is 21, meaning Bodanovich would have to score 21 points or more to earn his salary on your roster.

IF YOU AREN'T CONFIDENT A PLAYER WILL REACH VALUE, DON'T PICK HIM. CASE CLOSED.

4. Build LU's that are "all moving in the same direction" is controversial, but can be effective. Some people like it, others hate it because it breaks the "don't pick guys just because of X or Y" argument. But it is basically picking a LU from a limited amount of games, to increase your chances. If you have 6 players in one game and it is a shoot out or goes to triple OT, you're set for the night

 

[gkIrish]

Steelhead's post is phenomenal. What I would add is that you should religiously check rotoworld an hour before tipoff for late scratches.

This can really help for filling in your scrubs, aka the guys you don't feel strongly about anyway. While ownership of such a player is higher than you would normally see, many people don't bother checking for late scratches and you can find real gems.

I always check rotoworld again about 10 minutes before tipoff in case a player in one of my lineups is not going to play unexpectedly. I don't make other changes based on this second check unless someone is out.

I think my biggest issue is picking the right "stars." I tend to do very well with scrubs and mid-levels, but miss the guy that goes off for 75 in one game.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

I think my biggest issue is picking the right "stars." I tend to do very well with scrubs and mid-levels, but miss the guy that goes off for 75 in one game.

That's a good problem to have though. Filling the roster around stars is the hard part for most people.

Another side note for all to consider:

When I started, I had the nasty habit of always "starting at the top," and filling my lineup from PGs to the bottom. Naturally, the salary dwindled by the time I got to my bigs, and after some tinkering, was still top heavy. My reasoning at the time was "assists are worth more than boards, so who cares."

What I didn't consider was the VOLUME of boards to assists on a given night for a team is about 40-25, so although assists will get you more points, they aren't as easy to come by. Steals and blocks usually cancel themselves out. Regardless, picking in a straight line with no real plan beforehand is begging to lose money.

My best advice, besides "please don't do that," to anyone who insists on "shooting from the hip," and creating a lineup from scratch by pointing and clicking:

AT LEAST fill your lineup FIRST with all mid-level guys at each position, and start upgrading from there. You absolutely have to get production from every roster spot, and spreading yourself out too thin in even one spot is a recipe for disaster. This strategy also will cut down on regretful "I played him because he was the only one I could afford at that spot" line that will doom you. NEVER settle for a guy to make room for another.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Thanks for the advice guys. I think a complete evaluation of how I play is needed. With the all star break approaching, it's the perfect time. FD is something where I was typically logging on about 6 every night, setting a line up, and that's it. I never visited any other site for info, never checked the injury report, and used mostly the 'notes' they had on each player if I had a question. A few weeks in and a hand full of losses later I realized that the 'notes' for each player were typically a few games old. As far as setting my roster, I don't go in any specific order. I open the app, start at the top, and click on a position. If I don't see someone who jumps out at me for their price and match up right away, I go to the next position. After rolling thru once I end up with 2-4 spots filled, mostly with stars. Then I scroll thru and pick up a hand full of guys that are the 'value' guys for the day (well that I think are). This consists of the guys that are fill ins for an injured starter. That usually leaves me with only a few slots left. With those I scroll thru and see who I think may have a decent match up. It's just now gotten to the point where it's not enjoyable to throw a line up together just to lose a buck and finish in 50 out of 100. Lol. Thanks guys for all the suggestions.

 

[gkIrish]

My lineup tonight (on DK):

PG: Isaiah Thomas (Carter-Williams is not starting so the typical D against the PG position is not a concern for me tonight)
SG: Evan Turner: hot hand and good matchup
SF: Harrison Barnes: good matchup and low salary
PF: Draymond Green: again, matchup.
C: Miles Plumlee: scrub that is starting.
G: Aaron Afflalo: price is right and matchup is too
F: Derrick Favors: he is the only mid-level big I like tonight. Should be good for 40.
Util: Giannis: Don't love this pick but his salary is in my range and he has potential to go off

 

[Irish Insanity]

My last throw it together line up at the last minute before the all star break strategy change for the better is:

PG: Curry GSW
PG: Thomas BOS
SG: Beal WASH
SG: Grean SA
SF: Leonard SA
SF: Turner BOS
PF: Porzingis NY
PF: Aldridge SA
C: Plumlee MIL

See this is where I look at it and realize how in the fuck did I end up picking 3 Spurs

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

My lineup tonight (on DK):



PG: Isaiah Thomas (Carter-Williams is not starting so the typical D against the PG position is not a concern for me tonight)

SG: Evan Turner: hot hand and good matchup

SF: Harrison Barnes: good matchup and low salary

PF: Draymond Green: again, matchup.

C: Miles Plumlee: scrub that is starting.

G: Aaron Afflalo: price is right and matchup is too

F: Derrick Favors: he is the only mid-level big I like tonight. Should be good for 40.

Util: Giannis: Don't love this pick but his salary is in my range and he has potential to go off

I latched onto Plumlee for one lineup, but Monroe will still eat a lot of minutes tonight. Hopefully they get a KAT/Gorgeous Dong thing going where they both produce.

Speaking of Dong: that dude was a license to print money for a 3 game stretch before his salary went way up, but is still a steal ($6,100 on FD, was $5,500)

 

[Irish Insanity]

Plumlee and Thomas for Boston both scored shit last night. However, I was still mildly successful and doubled my money.

What type of contests do you guys enter? How many people of in them? Like do you guys go for H2H or double up contests where half get paid. Or large tourneys with 30k entries. Or smaller ones with only 100 entries.

 

[gkIrish]

Plumlee and Thomas for Boston both scored shit last night. However, I was still mildly successful and doubled my money.

What type of contests do you guys enter? How many people of in them? Like do you guys go for H2H or double up contests where half get paid. Or large tourneys with 30k entries. Or smaller ones with only 100 entries.

I bombed last night. I think Turner was the only guy that played well. Honestly probably my worst lineup of the season LOL.

I usually do a couple $1-3 tournaments with thousands of entries. Then I'll do a double up with many entries for $10-20. If I love my lineup I consider a ~$25 tournament (but this is not really smart).

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

Right now on FD, the average score to money this month has been:

H2H: 293
50/50: 298
Double Up: 296


I would recommend committing the same amount of your bankroll each night, and not wavering from it.

Start small, like $5 committed to one lineup, or $10 committed to two ($5 each)

Put $1 into a GPP, to satisfy your itch for the excitement of a big win, and then pick two $2 Double Ups. Do this for each lineup. Don't vary your lineups too much if you do two, so you maximize your chances of moneying across the board.

Do this for at least a month, slowly (and hopefully) building your bankroll, and up the stakes each week once you have rat holed a nice stash, like adding two more double ups to each lineup.

BAD HABIT ALERT:

Pick a time slot and stay put. Don't get excited if you are winning, or desperate if you are losing, and start crapping out lineups in later timeslots as a knee jerk reaction. Winning $4 is better than winning $0, or even worse....

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

I bombed last night. I think Turner was the only guy that played well. Honestly probably my worst lineup of the season LOL.



I usually do a couple $1-3 tournaments with thousands of entries. Then I'll do a double up with many entries for $10-20. If I love my lineup I consider a ~$25 tournament (but this is not really smart).

The higher the stakes, obviously the more skilled the players. I would personally rather put the same lineup into a $2 double up 12 times than enter one $25 double up or tourney.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

I bombed last night. I think Turner was the only guy that played well. Honestly probably my worst lineup of the season LOL.).

Jason Kidd is a jerkoff. I overreacted last night, and yanked Greg Monroe from one of my lineups not long before lock, and put in Gortat instead. Batum saved my bacon, but it still wasn't a good night overall.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Did well last night with the small slate. Team was at 325, and dumped it into a bunch of GPPS and H2Hs, cleaning the board, nickel and diming a decent profit:

 

[WhoDeyIrish]

I had a decent hit not too long ago. Last night I wish I would have played on FD I would have had some really good lineups. Oh well not bad steel.


edit:

I can't figure out how to get pictures on here ha.

 

[wizards8507]

Gronk’s “booze-cruise” becomes issue in Romo lawsuit | ProFootballTalk

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Big night tonight. Got a lot invested after having a really good week, turning a triple digit profit 3 nights, and $25-50 the others

 

[Irish Insanity]

I played Anthony Davis. That's all that needs to be said.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

I played Anthony Davis. That's all that needs to be said.

I was lucky enough to plug in Anderson about 10 minutes before lock. Looks like a good choice.


Now to the bad choices: rolled out Kanter, and he completely crapped all over the court. Anderson couldn't even save me in DU's, since he was 70% owned. Slid into home safely in a few GPPs, or it would have been a colossal stinker of a night, but a real stinker nonetheless. A good hot streak was derailed to say the least.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Had the lineup of a lifetime tonight, and Barea got injured. Still made out good overall, but damn. This was it.

 

[bkess8]

FD or DK?

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

FD or DK?

FD. I mostly do cash games now, but a few GPPS here and there.

 

[bkess8]

I quit using FD and was thinking about starting back up on DK just because they have more options available to pick from.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

I quit using FD and was thinking about starting back up on DK just because they have more options available to pick from.

I like how DK has a utility slot for NBA. I'll probably make the switch for next season.

 

[gkIrish]

Had a nice lineup today (Arenado, Belt, Semien, CarGo). Finished 7th out of 400. I've been on a roll to start the baseball season. Cashed in about 80% of my contests.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily Fantasy Sports

Had a nice lineup today (Arenado, Belt, Semien, CarGo). Finished 7th out of 400. I've been on a roll to start the baseball season. Cashed in about 80% of my contests.

I'm not touching baseball until basketball ends. Building an algo for it, and it should be done around then.

*build=I set the parameters, and my computer geek buddy does the actual "building" since I'm computer illiterate.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Daily fantasy sites DraftKings, FanDuel in talks on merger

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Daily fantasy sites DraftKings, FanDuel in talks on merger

I think they will be slitting their own throats with a merger. They already have a huge target on their backs, and with a probable (read:definite) anti-trust lawsuit stemming from one absorbing the other, DFS will go away much more quickly than if they stand pat. Both are doing MORE than enough financially, so to justify a merge with "we won't have to spend millions running ads against each other" is just getting greedy, and will kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Does anyone use a daily fantasy analyzer? If so which one?