Clemson Postgame...

[shalom]

I have no hate for Kelly. I feel disappointment, but no hate. I'm not smarter that him. I have no coaching experience. But let me ask you one thing...

If we go for the PAT, are we in overtime? Who in their right mind wasn't yelling "go for the PAT!!!!!"

Well yeah after the failed 2 point conversion in hindsight it suddenly becomes a horrible call to the Monday morning Qbs.

but it's statistically not a bad call, it's basically a judgment call. going for that 2 point conversion gives you 2 shots at 1 conversion to come out at least even with 2 kicks. and if you make that first one, basically ND would have won the game by kicking a FG at the end.

A lot of shit happened. Dude fumbling at the 2 yard line with minutes to go etc. The one thing you can fault both Kelly and team for is the fact they had to take a timeout before that first attempt. Momentum killer and wasting a crucial TO. Going for it is basically a judgment call and Kelly is a risk taker, IMO not anything you can really criticize him for.

Question it? Yeah, you can have a discussion about it since it's roughly a coin flip, but it's not really like he made a wrong decision, it's just a question of style.

 

[returnofthemack]

Really?

Delayed handoff is very similar to a draw play. I don't know how long you have been watching football but draw plays (or other delayed runs) are often used to slow down a big rush by the defense. The idea is that, by the time you hand it off, the defense has already gotten upfield and your back can slip in behind them. Give Clemson credit for lane discipline just plain beating the blockers.

I'm going to overlook the condescension. Delayed runs are useful, and I would've understood using them few times in the beginning while feeling out the defense. After it gets stuffed and it's becoming clear that it's not going to work, I don't see why we kept using it. If you think the run playcalls were good in the first quarter, we've reached an impasse.

 

[GATTACA!]

Football Commentary: Two-Point Conversion Chart

We were down by 12, right? This chart suggests going for it was the right call if you think your chances of converting are > 20% (also significant, we've missed extra points this year). I'd say given the fact the ball hit Robinson's hands, our chances of making it were better than 20%. Wish we'd gone for it after the second TD, really.

I would say the play Kelly ran works >90% There is really no excuse for that drop.

 

[NDgradstudent]

But he did.

And we could be in overtime.

You're arguing what-ifs. I'm arguing facts. We could have gone to overtime. Stop living in the past... Kelly tried to be aggressive and lost on bad playcalling. Not saying fire the guy, just stating what actually happened.

Yeah, but when analyzing a tight game where any number of plays (if they had gone differently) would have changed the outcome, you need to look at the plays that are the "easiest" to fix; the plays that should not go wrong. Those are basically the turnovers and missed tackles. Even if the decision to go for two when down twelve was wrong, and even if the play call on the two-point attempt at the end of the game was wrong, those were not "obvious" plays at all. If we had the same number of turnovers as Clemson, we almost certainly win. Simple as that.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Not really. You said "what if " Robinson catches the ball. He didn't. We did lose because we went for it when it didn't make sense. That's what I'm saying.

You are arguing with the knowledge of the outcome. That is not arguing with facts. That is arguing with hindsight. The call, at the time, was not a bad one. That's why charts like the ones we've shared exist.

 

[theclassickiller]

If you tell me before the play that we will get Robinson alone in the back of the endzone and Kizer will hit him in the hands we would all go for it 100% of the time. In that situation Kelly's call was perfect Robinson should have caught that ball.

You're telling me you'll take an inconsistent RS freshman QB trowing to an equally inconsistent WR in the endzone and you'll forgo the PAT? Whatever man...

Like Kelly didn't have a sample size of Kizer's passing... you're out of it.

 

[KPENN]

But he did.

And we could be in overtime.

You're arguing what-ifs. I'm arguing facts. We could have gone to overtime. Stop living in the past... Kelly tried to be aggressive and lost on bad playcalling. Not saying fire the guy, just stating what actually happened.

Ok, here's facts for you. If Sanders doesn't fumble to start the half it doesn't gift wrap Clemson 7 points. If Brown doesn't fumble within the 5 ND is either down 2 or tied with a couple minutes left but nope, all on Kelly.

 

[phgreek]

Down 12 in the 4th quarter? The percentages say to go for it.

Two Point Conversion Chart

Conversion confusion: When going for two, wait 'til the fourth - NFL.com

That and the feel for the game at that time screamed go for 2...what you are hoping for is them to be held at 21, and then, given how anemic the ND offense had been, you are looking at a TD and a field goal...and thats really HOPING given how the game WAS going. I'm down with the call...would have done the same thing based on chart and feel for how the game was going.

 

[kmoose]

But he did.

And we could be in overtime.

You're arguing what-ifs. I'm arguing facts. We could have gone to overtime. Stop living in the past... Kelly tried to be aggressive and lost on bad playcalling. Not saying fire the guy, just stating what actually happened.

It is not "a fact" that Yoon would have made the XP. He's missed a couple already this season.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Yeah, but when analyzing a tight game where any number of plays (if they had gone differently) would have changed the outcome, you need to look at the plays that are the "easiest" to fix; the plays that should not go wrong. Those are basically the turnovers and missed tackles. Even if the decision to go for two when down twelve was wrong, and even if the play call on the two-point attempt at the end of the game was wrong, those were not "obvious" plays at all. If we had the same number of turnovers as Clemson, we almost certainly win. Simple as that.

I hate agreeing with you.

 

[pkt77242]

Not really. You said "what if " Robinson catches the ball. He didn't. We did lose because we went for it when it didn't make sense. That's what I'm saying.



I never said it's all on him. But the one consistent should be him. If Saban made two playcalls as bad as Kelly's tonight... trust me, we'd know about it. Its' a higher standard. If Kelly wants to be held to it then he needs to up his game.

First off your comment wasn't to me it was to Kmoose. 2nd, you are arguing what-if. What part of what-if do you not understand? What-if we kicked the XP instead of going for the 2 pt conversion, is a what-if.

 

[NDPhilly]

Every fucking loss or close game we shit on Kelly and his play calling. Not every play call is gonna be a Touchdown jesus. If we didn't have drops you'd be praising Kelly right now for his win.

Take a step back and look what Kelly has built. On our #3 QB, #3 RB, #3 TE, and missing Jarron Jones, Dru Tranquill, Shaun Crawford, Avery Sebastian we played BETTER than Clemson at their house. We should be favored in every game for the rest of the season. If you think Kelly should be on the hot set you are a idiot

 

[theclassickiller]

You are arguing with the knowledge of the outcome. That is not arguing with facts. That is arguing with hindsight. The call, at the time, was not a bad one. That's why charts like the ones we've shared exist.

That chart is hilarious. If you think that chart follows any football logic any more then you're crazy, man. One factor? Have you ever taken a stats course?

Yeah, I am arguing the knowledge of the outcome. We are on the road in a hostile environment with an inconsistent RS freshman QB in the rain and we go for two over kicking it? If that chart says to do that, show me.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Interesting. So that chart means if we believe that we have better than a 40% chance of getting the 2 point conversion, we should go for it?

On rereading, yes.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

That chart is hilarious. If you think that chart follows any football logic any more then you're crazy, man. One factor? Have you ever taken a stats course?

Yeah, I am arguing the knowledge of the outcome. We are on the road in a hostile environment with an inconsistent RS freshman QB in the rain and we go for two over kicking it? If that chart says to do that, show me.

I have taken several stats courses. Look, if you're drunk, just say so. I'll back off.

 

[GATTACA!]

You're telling me you'll take an inconsistent RS freshman QB trowing to an equally inconsistent WR in the endzone and you'll forgo the PAT? Whatever man...

Like Kelly didn't have a sample size of Kizer's passing... you're out of it.

Yes, absolutely.

How about everyone else? If i tell you Kizer hits a wide open Robinson in the hands do you take the risk or kick the PAT?

 

[Circa]

I feel horrible for Chris Brown though. Played a good game, but another crucial fumble. Still love the kid.


Sent via tapatalk

+1

 

[theclassickiller]

It is not "a fact" that Yoon would have made the XP. He's missed a couple already this season.

True. You're right about that. But I'll take him making a PAT all day over Kizer completing to one of our WRs in the rain.

Every fucking loss or close game we shit on Kelly and his play calling. Not every play call is gonna be a Touchdown jesus. If we didn't have drops you'd be praising Kelly right now for his win.

Take a step back and look what Kelly has built. On our #3 QB, #3 RB, #3 TE, and missing Jarron Jones, Dru Tranquill, Shaun Crawford, Avery Sebastian we played BETTER than Clemson at their house. We should be favored in every game for the rest of the season. If you think Kelly should be on the hot set you are a idiot

He SHOULDN'T be on the hot seat. No one said that. But at some point you have to be logical. This isn't D2 where the top 160 teams make the playoffs. You have to plat the politics. Going to overtime and winning a squeaker is better than losing in regulation to a crappy ACC team. OSU will make the playoffs this year playing it safe... barely squeaking by bad teams... because Meyer knows how to play the cards. That's all I'm asking for.

 

[GoldenDomer]

It was super savage.

 

[kmoose]

I'm going to overlook the condescension. Delayed runs are useful, and I would've understood using them few times in the beginning while feeling out the defense. After it gets stuffed and it's becoming clear that it's not going to work, I don't see why we kept using it. If you think the run playcalls were good in the first quarter, we've reached an impasse.

It's not that I think that they were good, it's that I don't think that they were bad. Kelly gave what was universally considered to be one of, if not THE BEST offensive line in CFB a chance to figure out the blitz, and establish the run.

 

[pkt77242]

That chart is hilarious. If you think that chart follows any football logic any more then you're crazy, man. One factor? Have you ever taken a stats course?

Yeah, I am arguing the knowledge of the outcome. We are on the road in a hostile environment with an inconsistent RS freshman QB in the rain and we go for two over kicking it? If that chart says to do that, show me.

Have you taken a stats course? The chart is created by statisticians, what is your qualification to be questioning it? Also kicking in the rain with a freshman kicker is pretty damn risky as well (especially since he has missed a few XPs this year already). Again, you are arguing results not probability or what should be done.

 

[KPENN]

He SHOULDN'T be on the hot seat. No one said that. But at some point you have to be logical. This isn't D2 where the top 160 teams make the playoffs. You have to plat the politics. Going to overtime and winning a squeaker is better than losing in regulation to a crappy ACC team. OSU will make the playoffs this year playing it safe... barely squeaking by bad teams... because Meyer knows how to play the cards. That's all I'm asking for.

You are waaaaaaaaaaay too hung up on the 2 point call. Playing it safe? They were gonna have to go for 2 eventually. It's not like they were down 1 and went for the win.

 

[kmoose]

True. You're right about that. But I'll take him making a PAT all day over Kizer completing to one of our WRs in the rain.

So you would just ignore the chart, which says go for 2?

 

[IrishJayhawk]

True. You're right about that. But I'll take him making a PAT all day over Kizer completing to one of our WRs in the rain.



He SHOULDN'T be on the hot seat. No one said that. But at some point you have to be logical. This isn't D2 where the top 160 teams make the playoffs. You have to plat the politics. Going to overtime and winning a squeaker is better than losing in regulation to a crappy ACC team. OSU will make the playoffs this year playing it safe... barely squeaking by bad teams... because Meyer knows how to play the cards. That's all I'm asking for.

You're not being logical. You're being very emotional. The 2-point conversion chart is the definition of logical. You make the call based on the math, not the emotion of the moment.

 

[theclassickiller]

I have taken several stats courses. Look, if you're drunk, just say so. I'll back off.

As have I. And yes, I am drunk. And pissed. Because everyone in the room was yelling don't go for 2. It didn't make sense. Regardless of what some chart (that I could post online and you guys would quote as the end-all-be-all anyway) would say.

 

[mgriff]

Why is no one talking about the similarities to the Ole Miss @ Bama game? Alabama had five turnovers and basically handed Ole Miss 17 points to start the game. They still had a shot to win at the end but the amount of mistakes they made were too much to overcome.

It seems very similar to what just happened to us. We gave them two touchdowns to start the game and our turnovers kept making it a bigger task to overcome. We gave them at least 14 points. We shot ourselves in the foot at every opportunity, and we still had a shot at winning.

I'm not throwing in the towel on the team yet. Kelly might have made some questionable calls in hindsight, but nothing is absolute. They weren't reckless gambles, they just didn't come off. I'm still happy we have Brian Kelly. He took us out of some dark years, and while we haven't arrived, the team looks good. We have talent and depth all over the field.

 

[KPENN]

As have I. And yes, I am drunk. And pissed. Because everyone in the room was yelling don't go for 2. It didn't make sense. Regardless of what some chart (that I could post online and you guys would quote as the end-all-be-all anyway) would say.

So a bunch of fans in a room trumps a statistical study and a D1 coach?

 

[Fbolt]

Haven't read anything on the board yet, however, I anticipated the BK revisited most likely due to the 2 point conversion play. I say, F it.The coaches saw something they wanted to take advantage of and it didn't work. That's the way it goes.

CRob-what happened to this guys hands?

Kizer-Very impressed!!! The Toledo Kid came through but the Irish just gave too much away. A shame!

KR-Clearly jumping high onto a box does not equate to being a top corner. The year off hurt him more than than anyone thought.

Obviously disappointed with holding onto the ball. 3 TO's?

BK kept his sh!t together and made some solid calls IMO. So close-but not close enough. Hats off to the team for continuing to play hard and get it as close as it was.
Overall, I'm looking at this game as the Irish won for 55 minutes. Take away the 14 point spread they got from sloppy play in the first 5 minutes and the Irish get the W. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. What I really didn't like was losing to that smack talking team and a coach who does not have sideburns (which actually chaps my ass-clearly a personal issue).

 

[IrishJayhawk]

As have I. And yes, I am drunk. And pissed. Because everyone in the room was yelling don't go for 2. It didn't make sense. Regardless of what some chart (that I could post online and you guys would quote as the end-all-be-all anyway) would say.

Your room was emotional. The chart, as pointed out above, is developed by statisticians. It is a way for coaches to take emotion out of the decision when they are in the heat of the moment.

 

[theclassickiller]

You are waaaaaaaaaaay too hung up on the 2 point call. Playing it safe? They were gonna have to go for 2 eventually. It's not like they were down 1 and went for the win.

Not true. If the go for the PAT they go for another PAT to go to OT. I'm not sure what you're even trying to say.

So you would just ignore the chart, which says go for 2?

Is this chart God? When did this chart decide the college football champion forever and ever? Really?