ESPN way too early 2015 poll: ND #12

[IrishinSyria]

TCU leads the 2015 Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings - ESPN

12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2014 record: 8-5

Returning starters: 9 offense, 10 defense, 0 special teams

Key personnel losses: OT Christian Lombard, TE Ben Koyack, CB Cody Riggs, P/PK Kyle Brindza

Why they might finish higher: Notre Dame was one of the youngest teams in the country in 2014, and it might bring back nine starters on offense and 10 on defense. The offensive line will return intact if left tackle Ronnie Stanley doesn't leave for the NFL draft, and the top five rushers and top three receivers are expected back. The Fighting Irish had seven new starters on defense in 2014, which explains some of their struggles. They might get back two defensive starters who were suspended this past season: cornerback KeiVarae Russell and lineman Ishaq Williams.

Why they might finish lower: Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly has to settle his team's quarterback quandary. Junior Everett Golson came back from a one-year suspension and turned the ball over too frequently. Kelly played both Golson and sophomore Malik Zaire in the Music City Bowl. Will he stick with a two-quarterback system moving forward? Will Golson stick around or transfer? The schedule isn't overly difficult to Notre Dame standards, but the Irish will still play road games at Clemson and Stanford.

For more on how the Fighting Irish will look in 2015, check out Notre Dame's recruiting profile Insider and ESPN RecruitingNation's class rankings.

 

[returnofthemack]

My initial thought was "that's ridiculous". But it's not a terrible prediction. If Golson follows the normal trajectory for 3rd-year starters as far as passing efficiency, our defense stays healthy and gets more push from the D-line, and we run the ball more wisely, it's definitely possible. Just improbable.

 

[IrishLax]

I think we're a playoff team next year if we didn't have Clemson and USC sandwiching Navy.

 

[NDPhilly]

Anything less than 10-2 with this team under Kelly in year 6 would be a pretty big disappointment.

 

[DonnieNarco]

I think he ranked Baylor too high, but I do not know who would jump them. TCU and Ohio State are clearly going to be the favorites, and I think Ohio State should be number one.

Glad to see the lack of SEC bias in his poll, but God knows Alabama and Georgia will be ranked top 6 when the actual poll comes out.

 

[Crazy Balki]

If Kelly can't win 10 games with next year's squad, then I'm convinced that ND will never get to that level consistently.

And honestly, if Kelly can't get us to that level, who can?

45-20 doesn't seem terrible, but we can be SOOO much better and we should.

On a side note, USC is ranked way too high. Mark may be putting way too much stock into that game with us. Had that been October ND, we'd probably roll them. We saw that Nebraska, without a head coach, was able to keep pace with them. They should be 9-14 level, but 5 is pushing it.

 

[IrishinSyria]

If Kelly can't win 10 games with next year's squad, then I'm convinced that ND will never get to that level consistently.

And honestly, if Kelly can't get us to that level, who can?

45-20 doesn't seem terrible, but we can be SOOO much better and we should.

On a side note, USC is ranked way too high. Mark may be putting way too much stock into that game with us. Had that been October ND, we'd probably roll them. We saw that Nebraska, without a head coach, was able to keep pace with them. They should be 9-14 level, but 5 is pushing it.

I don't know, Kessler might be the most underrated QB in CFB. That offense should be scary good.

 

[IrishLax]

I don't know, Kessler might be the most underrated QB in CFB. That offense should be scary good.

Disagree. Crap QB like every USC QB of the past forever (sans Carson Palmer). Product of crap PAC12 defenses and elite skill position talent around him.

With that being said, I think USC is going to be extremely good next year and probably the best team in the PAC12. I don't know how good their front 7 will be but their back end will be elite and their offense will be elite.

 

[NDWorld247]

I think we're a playoff team next year if we didn't have Clemson and USC sandwiching Navy.

USC, the week after Navy, scares the crap out of me. Clemson isn't as concerning as the Georgia Tech game IMO. Aside from those three, the rest of the schedule is very manageable. Barring any catastrophic off-season changes, I think we go 11-1 and miss the playoff.

If Kelly can't win 10 games with next year's squad, then I'm convinced that ND will never get to that level consistently.

And honestly, if Kelly can't get us to that level, who can?

45-20 doesn't seem terrible, but we can be SOOO much better and we should.

On a side note, USC is ranked way too high. Mark may be putting way too much stock into that game with us. Had that been October ND, we'd probably roll them. We saw that Nebraska, without a head coach, was able to keep pace with them. They should be 9-14 level, but 5 is pushing it.

I agree with your first sentence. The stars are aligned for 2015 and 9-3 or worse is not acceptable.

Re: USC, I disagree. I think USC will reclaim the Pac 12 title and contend for the playoff.

 

[palinurus]

I think he ranked Baylor too high, but I do not know who would jump them. TCU and Ohio State are clearly going to be the favorites, and I think Ohio State should be number one.

Glad to see the lack of SEC bias in his poll, but God knows Alabama and Georgia will be ranked top 6 when the actual poll comes out.

Ohio State's schedule is even easier next year:
at Virginia Tech Hokies
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Northern Illinois Huskies
Western Michigan Broncos
at Indiana Hoosiers
Maryland Terrapins
Penn State Nittany Lions
at Rutgers
Minnesota
at Illinois
Michigan State
at Michigan Wolverines

 

[Crazy Balki]

Ohio State's schedule is even easier next year:
at Virginia Tech Hokies
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Northern Illinois Huskies
Western Michigan Broncos
at Indiana Hoosiers
Maryland Terrapins
Penn State Nittany Lions
at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
at Illinois Fighting Illini
at Michigan Wolverines

Essentially GTA with cheat codes enabled. That is pathetically easy.

 

[Crazy Balki]

USC, the week after Navy, scares the crap out of me. Clemson isn't as concerning as the Georgia Tech game IMO. Aside from those three, the rest of the schedule is very manageable. Barring any catastrophic off-season changes, I think we go 11-1 and miss the playoff.



I agree with your first sentence. The stars are aligned for 2015 and 9-3 or worse is not acceptable.

Re: USC, I disagree. I think USC will reclaim the Pac 12 title and contend for the playoff.

I don't. They still have a ways to go, and nothing they did this year convinced me they were top-5 material. Like I said, their game with us was a complete fluke. We were hurt, battered, defeated and just not in the game. Outside of that, USC hasn't done anything all that impressive. A lot of youth, but they also lose quite a bit this year too. ND returns a lot more talent and finally leadership than them.

 

[BobbyMac]

If you look at both total and key returning starters and schedule, I'd put ND as being tied for the fourth best team at the end of the year. Good news is I think they are tied with Baylor for the 4th spot and Baylor and TCU have to give each other a loss but ND does not play a championship game and it is a strike against them as TCU/BU found out this year.

This is coming from the guy who thought 3 games was the most they could possibly lose in '14 so who knows.

.

.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Disagree. Crap QB like every USC QB of the past forever (sans Carson Palmer). Product of crap PAC12 defenses and elite skill position talent around him.

With that being said, I think USC is going to be extremely good next year and probably the best team in the PAC12. I don't know how good their front 7 will be but their back end will be elite and their offense will be elite.

I'm with Lax. He had arguably his worst games against the two best defenses he played. Let's also remember that this team gave up over 400 yards rushing to Boston College and loses by far their best defensive player in Leonard Williams. A lot of questions up front for them. Losing Buck Allen and Agholor hurts too.

I just think they'll be massively overrated going into this year. Still really nervous about this one, since it comes after Navy (seriously need to put them away early and get the starters out immediately), but something tells me this is a revenge game to end all revenge games and Kelly pulls out an absolutely baffling ass whooping on Sark.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Ohio State's schedule is even easier next year:
at Virginia Tech Hokies
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Northern Illinois Huskies
Western Michigan Broncos
at Indiana Hoosiers
Maryland Terrapins
Penn State Nittany Lions
Minny
at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Sparty
at Illinois Fighting Illini
at Michigan Wolverines

retracted

 

[palinurus]

I mean, I hate Ohio St as much as the next guy, but did you deliberately leave Minny and Sparty off this to make it look easier than it is?

No I miscopied it. I corrected above and here....

at Virginia Tech Hokies
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Northern Illinois Huskies
Western Michigan Broncos
at Indiana Hoosiers
Maryland Terrapins
Penn State Nittany Lions
at Rutgers
Minnesota
at Illinois
Michigan State
at Michigan Wolverines

ps --- It's still pretty darn easy.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Wait, I just looked at our own schedule for 2015: are we really saying 10 wins + or bust?

Texas is always loaded with talent, it's just a matter of time before things click there. Clemson could be good. Georgia Tech is good. USC should be good. Stanford shouldn't suck.

It's a little easier, but there's definitely some tough games in there.

 

[Jackalope1977]

Ohio State's schedule is even easier next year:
at Virginia Tech Hokies
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Northern Illinois Huskies
Western Michigan Broncos
at Indiana Hoosiers
Maryland Terrapins
Penn State Nittany Lions
at Rutgers
Minnesota
at Illinois
Michigan State
at Michigan Wolverines

Wow. Just Unreal. That must be the easiest Power 5 schedule ever. And they're defending national champs to boot. How can they not make the playoff next year?

 

[NDPhilly]

Wait, I just looked at our own schedule for 2015: are we really saying 10 wins + or bust?

Texas is always loaded with talent, it's just a matter of time before things click there. Clemson could be good. Georgia Tech is good. USC should be good. Stanford shouldn't suck.

It's a little easier, but there's definitely some tough games in there.

So you're ok with winning 8 games every year?

 

[Nick Setta]

Im expecting another 8 win season honestly.

 

[IrishinSyria]

So you're ok with winning 8 games every year?

I mean, I'd like to see us run the table. But still, say we have a 75% chance of winning four games and a 90% chance of winning the other 8 (I think very optimistic numbers).

Odds of going undefeated through those 4 games = .75*.75*.75*.75= .316
Odds of going undefeated through the other 8=.9^8= .34
Odd of an undefeated season= .34*.316= .10

Really, the margin for error in CFB is so small that all it takes is one or two bad breaks to ruin a season. I think next year's team has the potential to win 10 games. Hell, I think they have the potential to win 12 games. But it takes more than just talent and good coaching to do that, it takes luck. I don't think we're going to be the type of team that would beat anyone else in football 99% of the time. We're good, but not that good. Once that sort of dominance is off the table, things become much more of a crapshoot.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Wait, I just looked at our own schedule for 2015: are we really saying 10 wins + or bust?

Texas is always loaded with talent, it's just a matter of time before things click there. Clemson could be good. Georgia Tech is good. USC should be good. Stanford shouldn't suck.

It's a little easier, but there's definitely some tough games in there.

No. Just no. I'm tired of hearing all of this crap about, "oh this team is always loaded" or "this team should be tough". F*ck that. I'm tired of this ticky tak mediocre bullshit. Kelly, get this team hyped up, go in and beat the living cow sh*t out of sirloins. Sure, Texas is loaded with talent, but goddamn it, so are we. Kelly is entering year F*CKING SIX. Get it done!

I have legitimate reasons as to why ND should beat every team mentioned, but I'm sick of dealing with this. 10+ should not be an unrealistic goal at this point in Kelly's tenure. Hell, at this point, it should be the norm.

 

[Nick Setta]

We aren't that good and never will be. Its a depressing future

 

[Crazy Balki]

I mean, I'd like to see us run the table. But still, say we have a 75% chance of winning four games and a 90% chance of winning the other 8 (I think very optimistic numbers).

Odds of going undefeated through those 4 games = .75*.75*.75*.75= .316
Odds of going undefeated through the other 8=.9^8= .34
Odd of an undefeated season= .34*.316= .10

Really, the margin for error in CFB is so small that all it takes is one or two bad breaks to ruin a season. I think next year's team has the potential to win 10 games. Hell, I think they have the potential to win 12 games. But it takes more than just talent and good coaching to do that, it takes luck. I don't think we're going to be the type of team that would beat anyone else in football 99% of the time. We're good, but not that good. Once that sort of dominance is off the table, things become much more of a crapshoot.

It all depends on whether you have a coach that can get the most out of his players. Kelly needs to do that. Urban has talent, but not more than us, and even if, it's a very small margin. There's a fine margin between the #1 recruiting class and #10 recruiting class. ND simply needs to get the guys that they claim our "under the radar" and bring them out from under the radar. Prove to us that the Kolin Hills, the John Bonners, the Jhonny Williams, the Greer Martinis of the world are truly what you think they are. Underrated and under-appreciated.

The ball's in ND's court. They have a choice. Either keep churning forward and to hell with Urban and Harb*tch, or curl up in the fetal position and let the midwest be dominated by the two most unlikeable faces in the sport.

 

[Crazy Balki]

We aren't that good and never will be. Its a depressing future

We can't beat SEC teams and never will. We've heard it all before, and it gets pretty damn old. I really hope Kelly and the bunch finally put this tired adage to bed.

 

[Nick Setta]

We can't beat SEC teams and never will. We've heard it all before, and it gets pretty damn old. I really hope Kelly and the bunch finally put this tired adage to bed.

I don't see it.

 

[IrishinSyria]

It all depends on whether you have a coach that can get the most out of his players. Kelly needs to do that. Urban has talent, but not more than us, and even if, it's a very small margin. There's a fine margin between the #1 recruiting class and #10 recruiting class. ND simply needs to get the guys that they claim our "under the radar" and bring them out from under the radar. Prove to us that the Kolin Hills, the John Bonners, the Jhonny Williams, the Greer Martinis of the world are truly what you think they are. Underrated and under-appreciated.

The ball's in ND's court. They have a choice. Either keep churning forward and to hell with Urban and Harb*tch, or curl up in the fetal position and let the midwest be dominated by the two most unlikeable faces in the sport.

Say we go crazy and assign ND a 95% chance of winning every game next season. That seems like a super optimistic figure, especially after what USC did to us, but let's use it anyway. Let's say all of our "under the radar" guys turn out to be studs and everybody else's turn out to suck. Golson or Zaire start seeing the field like Neo in the Matrix. Nobody on D gets hurt and our safeties pick up everything they couldn't get this year. That STILL only gives us a 54% chance of going undefeated. A 1 or 2 loss season is almost as likely.

All of which is to say, 10 wins is a really really good season. I would be thrilled with it. But I recognize that we play tough competition, and that means that even if you're better coached and have better players, sometime you will lose. Like you can be much better than every team you play and not get 10 wins in a year. I will grant that the very top coaches (Meyer, Saban) don't seem to fall victim to statistics very often. But I think they are very much the exceptions. I also think that their luck won't last forever.

 

[ThePiombino]

12 is a fair ranking in the land of intangible pre-season evidence. If you loom at the sum rather than the whole, it makes sense - ~20 returning starters (either from 2013 or 2014), coming off high of bowl win against SEC "power", 6th year under respected head coach who has raised the bar at every stop, etc. However, when you look at the schedule at a granular level, it scares the shit outta me. Texas, GT, Clemson, Stanford, SC, etc. Even the best team in the country is gonna trip once or twice against that. Can we really trust the playoff committee to look past a late season loss and no conference championship game and actually out ND in the top-10? I somehow doubt it, especially after what happened this year after the post-FSU precipitous drop.

 

[irishff1014]

Way to high IMO.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Anything less than 10-2 with this team under Kelly in year 6 would be a pretty big disappointment.

This

And we are returning 19 of 22 starters. No excuses.