Betting on the Derby?

[JughedJones]

Anybody going to the track or OTB tomorrow?

I'm pretty new at this, I've only bet on horses once or twice and have no idea what I'm really doing. Any hot tips out there?

I've looked around the tronz and I have a good handle on the different types of bets now, just interested if anyone has any strategies, stories, etc.

I don't want my seersucker suit and bow tie to go to waste!

 

[chicago51]

My dad follows horse racing for a hobby. He bets small bucks on it nothing big but he does it often enough he has got pretty good at reading the races.

Typically for the Kentucky Derby he told me:

Don't bet a pure closer there is just too and too much traffic to get through from the back of the pack. Hard for a closer to win.

You don't want to bet a lead lone speed horse either. Too many of those in the field they tend to tire each other out.

Got to bet a stalker horse that can hang mid pack and push through at the end.

I'll talk to him tomorrow. If I get a scouting report for the race from him I'll post it.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

My dad follows horse racing for a hobby. He bets small bucks on it nothing big but he does it often enough he has got pretty good at reading the races.

Typically for the Kentucky Derby he told me:

Don't bet a pure closer there is just too and too much traffic to get through from the back of the pack. Hard for a closer to win.

You don't want to bet a lead lone speed horse either. Too many of those in the field they tend to tire each other out.

Got to bet a stalker horse that can hang mid pack and push through at the end.

I'll talk to him tomorrow. If I get a scouting report for the race from him I'll post it.

Let us know what he thinks. I'm hoping to put a few bucks down.

 

[chicago51]

Let us know what he thinks. I'm hoping to put a few bucks down.

I'll try post something around 4:00-4:30 ET, 3:00-3:30 in Chicago. I got work till 2:00 I'm going to see him after that. Race won't start till after 5 ET.

He may not break down the derby.

He likes San Anita where they have the Breeders Cup and Arlington Park here near Chicago more so than Churchill Downs. Although I think since it is the Derby he'll probably bet a few bucks on it.

Although if you are looking for the favorite his advice may not be helpful as he typically looks for the best risk / reward value bets.

 

[JughedJones]

I'll try post something around 4:00-4:30 ET, 3:00-3:30 in Chicago. I got work till 2:00 I'm going to see him after that. Race won't start till after 5 ET.

He may not break down the derby.

He likes San Anita where they have the Breeders Cup and Arlington Park here near Chicago more so than Churchill Downs. Although I think since it is the Derby he'll probably bet a few bucks on it.

Although if you are looking for the favorite his advice may not be helpful as he typically looks for the best risk / reward value bets.

I look forward to the possibility. Exactly the response I was looking for!

 

[nsideirish]

Liking what I see from Ride on Curln and Candy Boy. Will probably throw some money on them ATB.

Not sure what my exotics will be, if any.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Blog | straitpinkie.com

For what it's worth. LOL

 

[JughedJones]

Blog | straitpinkie.com

For what it's worth. LOL

Good stuff, thanks Tommy.

 

[chicago51]

My dad said #5 horse California chrome is favored for good reason based on his figures and history. Although he said their are 5 Brady/Montana/Jordan like horses that refuse to lose and have never lost yet.

He said #13 horse Chittu I believe was a good value bet. He has the best trainer.

 

[chicago51]

Kentucky Derby is of course for 3 year olds.

Just an FYI the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic race has the some of the best horses in the world. They are all 4 and up though.

Wise Dan would whip any horse in the derby if he is on his game.

 

[A Pac]

Anyone want to make some vbets on the race? I'll bet up to 5 billion vbucks in total. I like California Chrome to win.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Is the vbook closed now? I haven't bet since the Super Bowl.

 

[A Pac]

Is the vbook closed now? I haven't bet since the Super Bowl.

It's still open. There just isn't a thread.

 

[chicago51]

Anyone want to make some vbets on the race? I'll bet up to 5 billion vbucks in total. I like California Chrome to win.

My public service announcement on playing the ponies in terms of betting the favorites.

The real players who actually do it for a living don't bet the favorites. In the long run you just don't make any money doing that.

Yes California Chrome is the most likely winner but in horse racing over time the favorite wins 33 percent of the time. The pay out for the favorite at a 33 percent win pct just isn't enough and over time if you bet the favorites you end up losing.

 

[A Pac]

My public service announcement on playing the ponies in terms of betting the favorites.

The real players who actually do it for a living don't bet the favorites. In the long run you just don't make any money doing that.

Yes California Chrome is the most likely winner but in horse racing over time the favorite wins 33 percent of the time. The pay out for the favorite at a 33 percent win pct just isn't enough and over time if you bet the favorites you end up losing.

We'll here's hoping that today is a 33% kind if day!

 

[nsideirish]

Hit a $2 exacta that paid $340!!!

I had an exacta wheel of California Chrome and then the seven biggest long shots. I based it on last year's result of a favorite winning and a 50-1 placing.

 

[alohagoirish]

This California chrome horse has a great shot at the triple crown, he made a very strong move, I was impressed.

He certainly does not get his speed from either his 8000 dollar mom or his 2500 dollar stud fee sire---

He has some of the worst breeding for his direct parents of any derby winner ever. But he is no fluke if you look deeper into his pedigree. His granddad was AP INDY---AP INDY had SEATTLE SLEW as his dad on one side and His mom was the daughter of the great SECRETARIAT----Chrome is no fluke and I have a hunch will make a run at the triple crown.

 

[dshans]

I went to the Derby in 1974. I broke even betting (ignorantly and whimsically) on the horses in the course of the day. I went broke, though, on the money spent on furlongs of Mint Juleps and beer.

There was a woman involved ...

 

[JughedJones]

Thanks Chicago, you totally added to my fun tonight.

I woke up this morning in the middle of a dream that repeated "Danza to Show...Danza to Show...Danza to Show..."

So I bet that, and I boxed C.Chrome, Danza, and Chitu.

I almost won huge untill Chitu dropped out in the last stretch.

That was a lot of fun. My girl had a big floppy hat, I had a seersucker and bow tie. Chicks thought I was pretty slick. Dressing up with dreadlocks is almost too easy. I'm an old dude, but broads still dig a hippie in a bow tie.

 

[JughedJones]

This California chrome horse has a great shot at the triple crown, he made a very strong move, I was impressed.

He certainly does not get his speed from either his 8000 dollar mom or his 2500 dollar stud fee sire---

He has some of the worst breeding for his direct parents of any derby winner ever. But he is no fluke if you look deeper into his pedigree. His granddad was AP INDY---AP INDY had SEATTLE SLEW as his dad on one side and His mom was the daughter of the great SECRETARIAT----Chrome is no fluke and I have a hunch will make a run at the triple crown.

I'll bet you 100 million vbucks she doesn't.

If she pulls it off, you get paid. If she doesn't.. you pay me 100,000 vbucks every month for 2 years.

Edit: I thought C. Chrome was a girl.