We are slow, Longo must go?

[IrishLax]

I'd call this a bit of a reach.

Name 25 better. Go.

 

[aubeirish]

Is he starting if Golson is here? Even though Golson isn't as impressive throwing the ball statistically??


I'll wait for your excuse.

That's not really the point. He is still much better than the average backup. He is probably the best backup in the country. A great luxury to have after loosing Golson. Rees has been very solid.

 

[Luckylucci]

2013 NCAA Division I-A College Football Individual Statistics Leaders for Passing - ESPN QB rating Rees at 34.

2013 NCAA Division I-A College Football Individual Statistics Leaders for Passing - ESPN Passing yards Rees at 7.

Here are a couple of statistical measures for you to decide whether he is average or not and I believe there are 120 FBS schools.

 

[Luckylucci]

That's fair.

Totally agree at CB, but I disagree at safety. Farley/Collinsworth have not impressed IMO, and they're not flying to the ball like you want your safeties to.

I agree. We're finally getting the talent and have the coach at the same time. Hasn't happened since Lou Holtz. But I still believe that the S/C coach should be judged team-wide, and the team-athleticism is reflected most on special teams, because everyone plays it. IMO our special teams (kicking/punting aside) coverage and returns have been awful. If you watch most other teams that recruits top-25 talent, their special teams >>>> ours, and I don't think it's to blame scheme, I think they're working with more athletic players.

Collinsworth hasn't gotten slower in the last few years and he was a ST champion so if you use ST play as a barometer he's plenty athletic. Also, Farley is consistantly in the right place he's just not making the tackle and again these problems have nothing to do with Longo. I get your frustrated we all are but its not longo's fault Fox, Shumate, Farley, and Jackson ran into each other trying to tackle Gallon. Their speed put them in the spot to make a play and they didn't.

 

[gkIrish]

Name 25 better. Go.

It's kind of unfair to ask someone to do that. How is he supposed to have seen all 100+ QBs play? And how many of those QBs have weapons like DD and TJ? How many have an above-average to elite offensive line?

 

[irishpat183]

The conversation was about you saying he was playing average football which actually has nothing to do with Golson. If Golson was here obviously Rees wouldn't be playing but Rees is playing and your saying he's playing average football. The two have absolutely nothing to do with each other. The relevant points to look at would be statistics relative to other FBS QB's which Golson isn't one of.

He's an average QB. That's what I was saying. Does an average guy have above average games from time to time...sure.

But it's not the norm. Just look at his stats. 41 TD's to 26 Ints and a buncha fumbles. He's not a playmaker. He's an average QB. Nothing wrong with that, it is what it is, but to claim he's better than that is absurd.

What has happened here, like with those coveted 2star guys on IE, is that we're now making up ways to love Tommy when a year ago we couldn't wait to have EG taking snaps.

Save it for the naive. This guy ain't buyin.

 

[Luckylucci]

I never said that you should buy it, thats your prerogative. I was just pointing out that some of the points you were making in the argument for Tommy being average, weren't relevant.

 

[IrishLax]

He's an average QB. That's what I was saying. Does an average guy have above average games from time to time...sure.

Name 60 QBs better than Tommy. Go.

But it's not the norm. Just look at his stats. 41 TD's to 26 Ints and a buncha fumbles. He's not a playmaker. He's an average QB. Nothing wrong with that, it is what it is, but to claim he's better than that is absurd.

What has happened here, like with those coveted 2star guys on IE, is that we're now making up ways to love Tommy when a year ago we couldn't wait to have EG taking snaps.

Save it for the naive. This guy ain't buyin.

This is seriously one of the dumbest things I have ever read. Judging someone on what they did 2 years ago? Cool, story bro. How many interceptions and fumbles does he have this year?

You're 100% right that he's not a playmaker and that his lack of athleticism is a huge issue. And I have been one of the biggest critics of Tommy out there. But let's try judging him on what he's actually doing this year, shall we?

He's not the reason we've lost a game and have looked kind of crappy. He's not even one of the top 10 reasons. So criticizing him for being "bad" or playing "bad" is just stupid. Really, really stupid. Especially because his shortcomings aren't correctable so the discussion is pointless.

 

[irishpat183]

Name 25 better. Go.

If I had the time, I would.

Mariota
Boyd
McCarron
Manizel
Bridgewater
Mettenburger
Sudfield
Schalessee (how ever you spell it, outta IL)
Shaw
Kid outta AZST
Tanner Price
ORST's QB
Stanfords QB


There are a few just off the top of my head

 

[IrishLax]

It's kind of unfair to ask someone to do that. How is he supposed to have seen all 100+ QBs play? And how many of those QBs have weapons like DD and TJ? How many have an above-average to elite offensive line?

How is that unfair? If I say he's one of the top 25 QBs and you say "no he isn't" then you should be able to justify that by naming at least 25 QBs who are better than him. If you can't, then don't make statements you can't support.

 

[Luckylucci]

Name 60 QBs better than Tommy. Go.



This is seriously one of the dumbest things I have ever read. Judging someone on what they did 2 years ago? Cool, story bro. How many interceptions and fumbles does he have this year?

You're 100% right that he's not a playmaker and that his lack of athleticism is a huge issue. And I have been one of the biggest critics of Tommy out there. But let's try judging him on what he's actually doing this year, shall we?

He's not the reason we've lost a game and have looked kind of crappy. He's not even one of the top 10 reasons. So criticizing him for being "bad" or playing "bad" is just stupid. Really, really stupid. Especially because his shortcomings aren't correctable so the discussion is pointless.

This is exactly where I'm at. And if you at the facts YTD numbers and the most encompassing one being QBR he's 34 in the country which would put him above average.

 

[koonja]

How is that unfair? If I say he's one of the top 25 QBs and you say "no he isn't" then you should be able to justify that by naming at least 25 QBs who are better than him. If you can't, then don't make statements you can't support.

I would say Tommy is a top 25 QB this year.

But Lax, I disagree with your last sentence.

When OMM said we would have the best 2nd string DL in the country this year, I did not need to see 118 other team's back up DL play to say with a lot of confidence that that was not going to be true. If you know your team really well, you can make an solid estimation of where they'll stack up; it's impossible (unless it's your job) to know all 119 teams well enough to rank them. QB is a different animal because it's a polarized position in relation to backup DL, but the point remains.

 

[IrishLax]

If I had the time, I would.

Mariota
Boyd
McCarron
Manizel
Bridgewater
Mettenburger
Sudfield
Schalessee (how ever you spell it, outta IL)
Shaw
Kid outta AZST
Tanner Price
ORST's QB
Stanfords QB


There are a few just off the top of my head

Seriously? SERIOUSLY? You're going to list Taylor Kelly (who I agree with you on) and you don't even know his name?!?! That's proof positive that you have absolutely no grasp of what you're talking about.

And you're still not even half way to 25. Here's a hint: you can't name 25 better QBs, because there aren't 25 better QBs. This is something I've looked into and I could come up with *maybe* 20 that are definitively better than Tommy.

 

[IrishLax]

I would say Tommy is a top 25 QB this year.

But Lax, I disagree with your last sentence.

When OMM said we would have the best 2nd string DL in the country this year, I did not need to see 118 other team's back up DL play to say with a lot of confidence that that was not going to be true.

No, of course not. 118? You just needed to have knowledge of at least another team with good depth. And you can find those in the ACC/SEC without even trying.

 

[irishpat183]

Name 60 QBs better than Tommy. Go.



This is seriously one of the dumbest things I have ever read. Judging someone on what they did 2 years ago? Cool, story bro. How many interceptions and fumbles does he have this year?

You're 100% right that he's not a playmaker and that his lack of athleticism is a huge issue. And I have been one of the biggest critics of Tommy out there. But let's try judging him on what he's actually doing this year, shall we?

He's not the reason we've lost a game and have looked kind of crappy. He's not even one of the top 10 reasons. So criticizing him for being "bad" or playing "bad" is just stupid. Really, really stupid. Especially because his shortcomings aren't correctable so the discussion is pointless.

So by looking at what someone has done in the past, when trying to predict future behavior, it's the "dumbest things" you've ever read?

The dumbest thing I've ever read is taking a guy with said stats, and assuming he's going to just be better because he plays for the Irish and we're desperate to find something to grab on too....Very cool story, bro.


That's what we have to go on. When the guy was a full time starter, he was average and turnover prone. What makes you think he'll be better this time around? Tommy hasn't shown me anything in the first 3 games that I didn't already know about him before. He hasn't blown it up (he beat Temple and had good game, so what?) But take away the Temple game and he's 4 TD's and 2 INT's and less than 60% passing. Now I know we're not going to take away games, but for the sake of using legit teams...

 

[irishpat183]

Seriously? SERIOUSLY? You're going to list Taylor Kelly (who I agree with you on) and you don't even know his name?!?! That's proof positive that you have absolutely no grasp of what you're talking about.

And you're still not even half way to 25. Here's a hint: you can't name 25 better QBs, because there aren't 25 better QBs. This is something I've looked into and I could come up with *maybe* 20 that are definitively better than Tommy.

Dude...I had his name on the tip of my tongue...I just couldn't place it. Hence, "off the top of my head"

Sue me.

Besides...I guess we can have this convo at the end of the year when all is said and done. I can't wait.

 

[Luckylucci]

Winston's game against Nevada counts and Bridgewater against Eastern Kentucky and Ohio counts why would you exclude Temple. As of YTD numbers he's an above average QB. Facts support that statement. If you are saying he doesn't end there fine but there is really nothing that you can say to support him being average or less.

 

[koonja]

Guys, Tommy is not the problem. It's Longo!

 

[koonja]

No, of course not. 118? You just needed to have knowledge of at least another team with good depth. And you can find those in the ACC/SEC without even trying.

That's a good point for judging DL.

But QB is a bit more difficult IMO, to name 'top 25' because for all of the big schools we know, there's a half dozen Delaware's that will produce a Joe Flacco (not saying a dozen unknown QBs go to the league, but I wouldn't be surprised if a dozen unknowns had a BETTER chance than Tommy to make the league/are more talented).

I am seriously impressed with Tommy so far and am on the bandwagon, but I think it's fair to say that there's at least ~ 5 smaller-school QBs that we don't even know about yet that are probably really, really good.

 

[Luckylucci]

Had to give you reps for that one, well played.

 

[IrishLax]

QBs definitively better than Rees:
1. Bridgewater
2. Winston
3. Boyd
4. Mariota
5. Mannion
6. Hogan
7. Price
8. Kelly
9. Hundley
10. Miller
11. Gardner
12. McCarron
13. Murray
14. Manziel
15. Fales

There are about 10 more that you can start making quite arguable cases for. Ergo, he's a top 25 QB.

 

[irishpat183]

QBs definitively better than Rees:
1. Bridgewater
2. Winston
3. Boyd
4. Mariota
5. Mannion
6. Hogan
7. Price
8. Kelly
9. Hundley
10. Miller
11. Gardner
12. McCarron
13. Murray
14. Manziel
15. Fales

There are about 10 more that you can start making quite arguable cases for. Ergo, he's a top 25 QB.

Goff outta Cal...forgot him. I think he's the #1 QB in the country right now.

 

[gkIrish]

How is that unfair? If I say he's one of the top 25 QBs and you say "no he isn't" then you should be able to justify that by naming at least 25 QBs who are better than him. If you can't, then don't make statements you can't support.

Here are 25+ QBs I have seen play with my own eyes I think are either obviously better or at least arguably better. Since you said definitely all I need to do is make an argument that 25 are arguably better

Alright here you go.

Clearly better

Boyd
Mariotta
Bridgewater
Manziel
McCarron
Goff
Sudfield
Shaw
B. Miller
Scheelhaase
Gardner
T. Kelly
Derek Carr
Petty
Winston
Murray
Hogan

Arguably Better
K. Guitton
Belldozer
Mettenberger
Mannion
Hackenberg
Mayfield
Keith Price UW
Connor Wood
Taylor Martinez
JW Walsh
Mayfield

Haven't seen play but could be better based on stats
Chuckie Keeton
Blake Bortles
Wyomings QB
Joe Southwick


I'm forgetting a couple more I'm sure.

Hundley
Fales

 

[irishpat183]

Winston's game against Nevada counts and Bridgewater against Eastern Kentucky and Ohio counts why would you exclude Temple. As of YTD numbers he's an above average QB. Facts support that statement. If you are saying he doesn't end there fine but there is really nothing that you can say to support him being average or less.

Like I said, I know we don't exclude games ( I knew I'd catch crap for that) but Let's see deeper into the schedule.

The next 4 should be a great measuring stick:

MichSt
OU
AZST
USC

Then Stanford and BYU wll be good ones as well.


Put it this way..If I was a betting man, I'd take Tommy's past over his future. Especially after the scUM game.

 

[Ironman8]

Goff outta Cal...forgot him. I think he's the #1 QB in the country right now.

Your #1 QB in the country threw 3 picks and lost to Northwestern at home this year.

SMH.

 

[irishpat183]

Here are 25+ QBs I have seen play with my own eyes I think are either obviously better or at least arguably better. Since you said definitely all I need to do is make an argument that 25 are arguably better

Alright here you go.

Clearly better

Boyd
Mariotta
Bridgewater
Manziel
McCarron
Goff
Sudfield
Shaw
B. Miller
Mayfield
Scheelhaase
Gardner
T. Kelly
Derek Carr
Petty
Winston
Murray
Hogan

Arguably Better
K. Guitton
Belldozer
Mettenberger
Mannion
Hackenberg
Mayfield
Keith Price UW
Connor Wood
Taylor Martinez
JW Walsh

Haven't seen play but could be better based on stats
Chuckie Keeton
Blake Bortles
Wyomings QB
Joe Southwick


I'm forgetting a couple more I'm sure.

Clearly better.

 

[irishpat183]

Your #1 QB in the country threw 3 picks and lost to Northwestern at home this year.

SMH.

So I guess he's not.


Ahhh...He's #1 in yardage.

 

[Cackalacky]

Your #1 QB in the country threw 3 picks and lost to Northwestern at home this year.

SMH.

He threw some bad ones against OSU too. He looked like a beanpole with pads on.

 

[IrishLax]

So by looking at what someone has done in the past, when trying to predict future behavior, it's the "dumbest things" you've ever read?

The dumbest thing I've ever read is taking a guy with said stats, and assuming he's going to just be better because he plays for the Irish and we're desperate to find something to grab on too....Very cool story, bro.

Yeah, pretty much. If you think that is how you're supposed to approach things in life, please tell me you have a professional manage your money. You should project based on current conditions and rational deductive reasoning. If you evaluated Clausen coming into his junior year based on his stats from the first two seasons you'd be saying the same crap you're saying about Rees.

That's what we have to go on. When the guy was a full time starter, he was average and turnover prone. What makes you think he'll be better this time around?

Because players get better, this is two years later, and he's performed pretty well the first 3 games....??? Would you project Clausen off his '07 stats? Quinn off of his '04? This is just so nonsensical.

Tommy hasn't shown me anything in the first 3 games that I didn't already know about him before. He hasn't blown it up (he beat Temple and had good game, so what?) But take away the Temple game and he's 4 TD's and 2 INT's and less than 60% passing. Now I know we're not going to take away games, but for the sake of using legit teams...

So we're going to use 2-3 year old stats from his first time as a starter, but we're going to pick and choose what we look at this year. Got it.

 

[irishpat183]

Yeah, pretty much. If you think that is how you're supposed to approach things in life, please tell me you have a professional manage your money. You should project based on current conditions and rational deductive reasoning. If you evaluated Clausen coming into his junior year based on his stats from the first two seasons you'd be saying the same crap you're saying about Rees.

Are you insane?? What do you think Monte Carlo sims are??? LOL....I actually work in Retirement planning and every freaking broker and insurance provider uses backtesting to predict future results...

Because players get better, this is two years later, and he's performed pretty well the first 3 games....??? Would you project Clausen off his '07 stats? Quinn off of his '04? This is just so nonsensical.

No, it's not. Again, Tommy beat Temple, sucked under the lights, and beat Purdue. Why am I impressed compared to any other year?

For the record, Qunn and Jimmy also couldn't win jack. How many bowl wins?



So we're going to use 2-3 year old stats from his first time as a starter, but we're going to pick and choose what we look at this year. Got it.

I'm using ALL of his numbers. I merely took out the Temple game to make a point about his best game coming against a terrible team. I know it counts.