I can understand that but he did play well down the stretch last year and has all the tools. Maybe the best arm talent in college football. My list is where I believe they will end up at the end of next year. No reason Mettenberger can't be top 20 with the talent around him. I think Cam Cameron will help also.
Mettenberger looks like an unathletic JaMarcus Russell. Huge arm, completely immobile, very slow in his progressions. He basically had two good games last year: Alabama and Mississippi State. After that, Ole Miss ate his lunch and he nearly lost the Arkansas game. I'd lay the Clemson game at his feet, too, if Les Miles hadn't been so busy reminding the world that he's bat-**** crazy.
He was basically Everett Golson minus every shred of pocket awareness and athleticism last season. Go look at their passing numbers: they're almost identical. Then factor in about 4 sacks per game that Mett took which Golson would've avoided. Towson(!) got to him 5 times.
I don't think Golson should be in anyone's top 20 at this point, either, for what it's worth. Comparable freshmen/sophmores haven't turned into top-20 QBs the next season with much regularity. When you look for guys to compare his start to, you wind up finding many who never put in the effort and lost their starting jobs and then an awful lot who developed slowly or never at all like Jeremiah Masoli, Patrick Pinkney, Jacory Harris, Tate Forcier, Adam Weber, and J.P. Wilson. Matt Stafford and Terrelle Pryor both looked a lot like Golson as sophmores before breaking through the next season, but they're the exception, not the rule. The best-case comparable player is probably Andy Dalton. All three of those guys, though, took until their third season starting to really reach the top 20.
We tend to look at guys who started as freshmen and project a nice, smooth upward curve over the next three seasons. Reality is far more messy. We're still talking about a man who learned only last offseason that starting college QBs have to put in serious work to learn the position. To become an elite signal caller, he's going to have to take the next step in his dedication to the game. We all hope he will, but I'm not comfortable putting him in that category until we see it happen and see that he has the skill to evolve from a reliable game manager into a true threat on the field.