I have 4th pick in my leauge and im debating taking Arian Foster if he is still there... Not sure if i should though. I know his back up Ben Tate just got a minor injury this weeked. Both shoudl be back. But i honestly think i might take Doug Martin or Marshawn before Arian... Any thoughts?
Is this standard or PPR?
I think Foster and Martin will both be gone by pick #4. If they're somehow available, take Martin.
Avoid drafting Foster if he's available. I don't think Foster will have a great year. Look at his production over the past few years. I know he's only 26, but his production in terms of ypc and ypg have been steadily declining. Add to that, the fact that he had 400+ carries (regular season + playoffs), including a league-leading 351 carries during the regular season, and you have a recipe for disappointment. Not many players have had good seasons following 400+ carry seasons. Also keep in mind that Foster is currently not 100%. He's nursing a few injuries including his calf and his back, the latter of which has kept him out of practice. Plus, if Tate is injured or limited in any way, then they're going to rely on Foster even more.
The red flags are there. Don't draft Foster.
Your best bets at #4 are Spiller and Lynch. I was going to make the case for Jamaal Charles, but as I'm writing this, Charles was just injured at Chiefs practice and had to be carted off the field. So until I know more, I would just avoid him altogether:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Charles is now leaving field on a motorized cart</p>— Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) <a href="https://twitter.com/adamteicher/statuses/366931382527725569">August 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
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Spiller has a very high ceiling. He rushed for ~1250 yards last year on 207 carries (that's 6.0 ypc!!). The Bills said they want to give him the ball "until he throws up." So they're expecting a lot of production from him this year. He's also a threat to catch it out of the backfield. If he gets the ball in space, he's probably the most dangerous/elusive runner in the NFL. The only concern I have is that the Bills are going to try to find a way to get Fred Jackson some carries, and Jackson could become the goal-line back, as he's more of a power runner.
Lynch is a safe pick, he's the Seahawks' every-down workhorse and will likely find paydirt 10+ times again this season. You can't go wrong w/ him at 4.
tl;dr--Assuming everyone other than AP is available at 4, I'd go: Martin>Spiller>Lynch (avoid Foster and avoid Charles until we know more about his injury).