Wins Above Replacement in college football

[stlnd01]

So, with Smythe gone we've now lost four starters since August camp. Which begs the question of how many actual games these injuries will cost us. Has anyone ever seen a college football stat akin to baseball's Wins Above Replacement? Or a way to measure that cumulatively?

I'm of the opinion that most - not all, but most - individual college football players are relative commodities. Some are better than others, for sure, and of course you want the best on the field. But when it comes down to it I don't really think that we're going to lose a game because Alize Jones is our tight end instead of Durham Smythe, or Jerry Tillery starting at DT instead of Jarron Jones. Some positions are different, of course, QB chief among them. But even swapping out Zaire for Kizer I think we can win the same number of games if the rest of the team holds up its end.

But at some level college football is a war of attrition. And eventually - we saw this last season on the defense - the cumulative toll of injuries saps your depth and adds up to real problems. I'm wondering at what point injuries become a real problem, to be measured in wins and losses. And how you might measure such a thing.

Any thoughts?

 

[Riddickulous]

The silver lining here is that the younger players can get PT so that 2-3 years down the road we'll be deep and experienced and then they can get injured and ruin that season, too.

All joking aside, this is really tiring. I have no idea how Kelly deals with all this shit on a yearly basis.

 

[Irish YJ]

just wait till we lose a couple starting OLs from playing GT and Navy....

 

[phgreek]

I'm guessing we lose a DL player for some period from each of those games...and thats when shit is a problem.

 

[phillyirish]

No, there are too many players doing completely different things to accurately compute each players impact for a win. Baseball stats are comparable across the board for each player so it's much more linear, and it can be done in basketball to a lesser extent too.

But football there's just too many variables, think off all the stats that you have to consider and then there's also parts of the game that can't be quantified like in the trenches. Some player might be a 3rd down pass rush specialist but that might be all he does, and could get like 8 sacks throughout the season but never plays the run. On paper that'll look a lot better than a DE like Sheldon day who constantly blows up the line but will rarely show up on the stat sheet. Same thing with interceptions, which my opinion are kind of flukey. Yea, you might get 8 interceptions but it says something about you if quarterbacks are throwing at you that much.

But your right on the depth issue, considering 4 starters and a key reserve going down you have to think that there's at least a win lost there. Personally, and call me crazy, I think Jones is injury is the most impactful. I thought he was prime for a big year and just don't think we have a lot of depth on the Dline.

Also make no mistake, this is a huge concer with all these losses. You can say that barring any additional injuries we can sustain our level of play, or cling to that whole "next man in mentality"; but considering how early it is in the year that still leaves 10 more games for that next man in to get injured as well.