Vegas

[DCirishfan]

Currently at most books we are laying 8. Opening line in most places was 8.5. Based on the movements and the line placements Vegas strongly believes that not only will we win Saturday, but we will do so in convincing fashion.

Is Vegas always right? No Is Vegas usually right?



GO IRISH!

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I can think of two games this year where Vegas wasn't right, one of them a double digit spread. Uggghhh......

 

[WaveDomer]

It doesn't have much to do with Vegas thinking ND will win. It has everything to do with them getting equal bets on both sides. With a team like ND, they know there is a huge fanbase that will bet ND. So when the line is ND by 8, it is probably more like ND by 3 but they know a ton of people will bet ND, especially at home so they bump the line up to 8 to get bets for USC.

 

[Aerosmith777]

Yeah, I like to follow the line b/c I find it interesting, but it's not a predictor of who will win. And especially for this team in my experience....

 

[JughedJones]

What certainly is an indicator is how the line moves.

Wave is totally right that the spread is just to get action moving, but the people that put the massive amounts of money down are incredibly smart and rarely wrong.

If you start to see the line move closer to game time, it will show what's really going on.

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

With a team like ND, they know there is a huge fanbase that will bet ND. So when the line is ND by 8, it is probably more like ND by 3 but they know a ton of people will bet ND, especially at home so they bump the line up to 8 to get bets for USC.

No, there is no way the "ND factor" brings a five-point swing. It may account for an extra 0.5, but that's really it. There are as many people that love betting AGAINST Notre Dame as there are fans that love betting for them.

The reason the line is 8.0/8.5 is, like you mentioned, Notre Dame is at home in a night game. Home advantage usually accounts for roughly a 3-point addition to the line. If the game was on a neutral field, the line would be between 4.5 and 5.5 (doesn't that sound just about right?) If this were being played at the Coliseum, it would be close to a pick 'em.

Also, Vegas (and the betting public) sees that the only difficult game USC has played away from home (@ ASU) resulted in a 21-point loss for the Trojans.

 

[koonja]

No, there is no way the "ND factor" brings a five-point swing. It may account for an extra 0.5, but that's really it. There are as many people that love betting AGAINST Notre Dame as there are fans that love betting for them.

The reason the line is 8.0/8.5 is, like you mentioned, Notre Dame is at home in a night game. Home advantage usually accounts for roughly a 3-point addition to the line. If the game was on a neutral field, the line would be between 4.5 and 5.5 (doesn't that sound just about right?) If this were being played at the Coliseum, it would be close to a pick 'em.

Also, Vegas (and the betting public) sees that the only difficult game USC has played away from home (@ ASU) resulted in a 21-point loss for the Trojans.

Word.

 

[Carlyle Javar Holiday]

No, there is no way the "ND factor" brings a five-point swing. It may account for an extra 0.5, but that's really it. There are as many people that love betting AGAINST Notre Dame as there are fans that love betting for them.

The reason the line is 8.0/8.5 is, like you mentioned, Notre Dame is at home in a night game. Home advantage usually accounts for roughly a 3-point addition to the line. If the game was on a neutral field, the line would be between 4.5 and 5.5 (doesn't that sound just about right?) If this were being played at the Coliseum, it would be close to a pick 'em.

Also, Vegas (and the betting public) sees that the only difficult game USC has played away from home (@ ASU) resulted in a 21-point loss for the Trojans.

The line is intentionally made high so that when Fri/Sat comes, it will be bet down from all the USC money coming in from LA. Right now they are trying to get ND sucker bets to bet high, then they will move the line for the USC money when they come in over the weekend. Sounds like a trap to me. They always do this with big televised games for USC. I say take the points early in the week at 8.5 and bet ND at 6.5 when the line drops.

 

[Irish Fam]

North Buffalo Irish has this dead on.