I completely agree with all of this.
Also, nevermind the fact that, while the South won May battles early on, they were not knocking the Union out of the war anytime soon, especially from a military strength standpoint. It was all a matter of time until the Union’s superior forces, production, navy, and competent Generals (Grant and Sherman for example) overwhelmed the South.
I dont agree with this. The North still had to bring the fight to the enemy. That takes political will. I am more of a western theater nerd, but the South successfully dragged the war on for years despite not winning many battles.
1861: war starts, Union recruits an army
1862: Shiloh is nearly a disaster for the Union. Union takes its time moving to Corinth. CSA invades Kentucky and stalls progress.
1863: Union sits on its thumb, then excels in Tennessee and *narrowly* avoids complete defeat at Chickamauga.
1864: CSA has decent success limiting Sherman's gains until Hood is placed in command and spends his men like the fool that he was.
The first instances that I think genuinely could have ended the war was Chickamauga/Chattanooga. If Gen Thomas isnt a badass motherfucker, the Confederates could have annihilated the union armies in retreat and taken Chattanooga. If the Union lose 50,000 men as POWs... im not sure there isn't a widespread revolt calling for peace. Is there enough political will to rebuild a fighting force and retake Chattanooga (and then Atlanta)? Im not sure there is.
The second is in 1864, everyone and their brother knows the Union has to have a breakthrough to secure the election (and the war). In August, Lincoln has meetings with Frederick Douglas asking him to immediately form an organization using his abolitionist contacts to go into the South and remove as many freed slaves as they possibly can, because after November's loss there wont be much he can do. That's how convinced Lincoln was that he would lose. The final retreat out of Atlanta changed history. If the Confederates stuck with Johnston, they may have held out 8 more weeks. Hood was an aggressive idiot and was not the man for the job.