irish4ever
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Anyone know what the line is for the game Saturday against Purdue? Not knowing, I'm going to guess the Irish are a 12-13 pt. dog.
PU vs ND line ...
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The Polish Irishman
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I would have to say in my professional opinion...14.5
The "Experts" have Irish as a dog @ 21.5
The Mirage in Vegas have the Irish a dog @ 22
FOX Sports on MSN - COLLEGE FOOTBALL - Odds
The Mirage in Vegas have the Irish a dog @ 22
FOX Sports on MSN - COLLEGE FOOTBALL - Odds
johnnd05
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Sheesh. That's what I'd seen, but sheesh.
Guys,
This is probably the correct line. PU has an excellent passing game with two great WR and a very good QB. I believe we will score some points, but not enough to keep up with the score fest PU is capable of putting on the board. Pray for rain and slop which would give us a great chance. If it is sunny and warm, it will be a loong day. GO IRISH!!!
This is probably the correct line. PU has an excellent passing game with two great WR and a very good QB. I believe we will score some points, but not enough to keep up with the score fest PU is capable of putting on the board. Pray for rain and slop which would give us a great chance. If it is sunny and warm, it will be a loong day. GO IRISH!!!
JeremyND07
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I agree...Purdue's passing game looks pretty good and with #20 & #22 defending the pass Purdue will score a lot of points. I look for us to show improvement on offense....38-24 Purdue.
johnnd05
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I wasn't complaining about the line, just bemoaning how far we've fallen. 3 TD underdogs against Purdue ... as I said, sheesh.
JeremyND07
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Wow!!! I was just thinking if we are 3 TD dogs against Purdue what will the spread for USC look like...sheesh is right!!!
Yes we have fallen, BUT Purdue probably has their best Offense in several years. They will score bucket loads of points on everyone. This includes the OSU's of the world. They could possibly pull off a Big Ten Championship this year.
LOVEMYIRISH
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We a shot at this...in a big way.
Purdue has been completely untested. Toledo (1-3), Eastern Illinois (2-2), Central Mich (1-3), and Minnesota (1-3)? Yuck. These guys are playing PATSIES and getting clobbered. PU might well be over-estimated.
ND is not much of an offensive challenge, but defensively we are better than who they have played so far. Check out these defensive results for Purdue's opponents...
Toledo gave up:
52 to Purdue
52 to Central Mich
45 to Kansas
35 to Iowa State
Eastern Illinois:
24 to Tennessee Tech
52 to Purdue
24 to Illinois State
20 to Indiana State
Central Michigan:
52 to Kansas
31 to Toledo
45 to Purdue
44 to North Dakota State
Minnesota:
31 to Bowling Green
35 to Miami OH
39 to FAU
45 to Purdue
Purdue has been completely untested. Toledo (1-3), Eastern Illinois (2-2), Central Mich (1-3), and Minnesota (1-3)? Yuck. These guys are playing PATSIES and getting clobbered. PU might well be over-estimated.
ND is not much of an offensive challenge, but defensively we are better than who they have played so far. Check out these defensive results for Purdue's opponents...
Toledo gave up:
52 to Purdue
52 to Central Mich
45 to Kansas
35 to Iowa State
Eastern Illinois:
24 to Tennessee Tech
52 to Purdue
24 to Illinois State
20 to Indiana State
Central Michigan:
52 to Kansas
31 to Toledo
45 to Purdue
44 to North Dakota State
Minnesota:
31 to Bowling Green
35 to Miami OH
39 to FAU
45 to Purdue
johnnd05
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True, but from what Weis said in his press conference it doesn't look like they'll be in much on run downs.
Akron Irish
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Never in my life.....
Never in my life.....
Would I think we would be 22 point dogs to Purdue??!!! Somewhere there is a pig flying around.
Never in my life.....
Would I think we would be 22 point dogs to Purdue??!!! Somewhere there is a pig flying around.
S
SouthieND04
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22 is a little ridiculous. Yeah, we should definitely be underdogs, but will we lose by 22 points? Based on the progress we made last week, I doubt it.
johnnd05
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Via the Roundup:
By the numbers: Is there hope for the Irish against Purdue?
When the o-4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish arrive in West Lafayette to face the 4-0 Purdue Boilermakers, they'll have their work cut out for them. Purdue is ranked #25 in the nation in the coaches' poll, and is just one spot out of the top 25 according to the AP. They also rank seventh in the nation in scoring offense with 48.5 points per game, and eighth in total offense with 527 yards per game.
Nor is Purdue the kind of pass-first, pass-second, pass-third, run rarely team that some might take them to be: the Boilermakers are averaging almost 203 yards per game on the ground, good for 29th in the nation, to go with their twelfth-ranked passing offense (324 yards/game). While ND head coach Charlie Weis said in his press conference yesterday that Purdue is still "a passing team first," one that runs the ball "to keep you honest," it's clear that this has worked well so far for them in both categories: they average almost six yards per rush, and have given up only three sacks in their first four games.
None of this bodes well for an Irish defense that, while it ranks 52nd in the nation in yardage against at 352 yards per game, is 91st in scoring defense (as BGS noted earlier this week, the chief reason for this disparity rests in field position: Irish opponents have had to go 45 yards or less on eleven of their 23 scoring drives). ND's defense looks good statistically against the pass, giving up only 120 yards per game (good for 55th in the nation), but this is largely a factor of the "blowout" quality of their losses: teams have run for an average of 232.8 yards per game against the Irish, leaving ND's rushing defense with a national ranking of 111th.
All of this adds up to a point spread that favors the Boilermakers by more than three touchdowns, and a general sense that Notre Dame's first-ever 0-5 start is all but inevitable.
But is it? Sticking just with the numbers once again, I think Irish fans can find a few reasons for hope:
(Team statistics courtesy of NCAA.org.)
By the numbers: Is there hope for the Irish against Purdue?
When the o-4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish arrive in West Lafayette to face the 4-0 Purdue Boilermakers, they'll have their work cut out for them. Purdue is ranked #25 in the nation in the coaches' poll, and is just one spot out of the top 25 according to the AP. They also rank seventh in the nation in scoring offense with 48.5 points per game, and eighth in total offense with 527 yards per game.
Nor is Purdue the kind of pass-first, pass-second, pass-third, run rarely team that some might take them to be: the Boilermakers are averaging almost 203 yards per game on the ground, good for 29th in the nation, to go with their twelfth-ranked passing offense (324 yards/game). While ND head coach Charlie Weis said in his press conference yesterday that Purdue is still "a passing team first," one that runs the ball "to keep you honest," it's clear that this has worked well so far for them in both categories: they average almost six yards per rush, and have given up only three sacks in their first four games.
None of this bodes well for an Irish defense that, while it ranks 52nd in the nation in yardage against at 352 yards per game, is 91st in scoring defense (as BGS noted earlier this week, the chief reason for this disparity rests in field position: Irish opponents have had to go 45 yards or less on eleven of their 23 scoring drives). ND's defense looks good statistically against the pass, giving up only 120 yards per game (good for 55th in the nation), but this is largely a factor of the "blowout" quality of their losses: teams have run for an average of 232.8 yards per game against the Irish, leaving ND's rushing defense with a national ranking of 111th.
All of this adds up to a point spread that favors the Boilermakers by more than three touchdowns, and a general sense that Notre Dame's first-ever 0-5 start is all but inevitable.
But is it? Sticking just with the numbers once again, I think Irish fans can find a few reasons for hope:
- The first lies in the extremely low quality of opponents that Purdue has played thus far. The Boilermakers blew out 1-3 Toledo, 2-2 Eastern Illinois, 1-3 Central Michigan, and 1-3 Minnesota in the first four weeks of the season: hardly a gauntlet of the sort that the Irish have faced. (For what it's worth, Toledo, Central Michigan, and Minnesota are ranked 86th, 107th, and 100th in the nation by SI, and Eastern Illinois is a I-AA team. Compare this to ND's opponents: both Penn State and MSU are either ranked or just outside the top 25 in both polls, while Michigan ranks 30th and Georgia Tech 44th.)
- The second lies in the generally low quality of the defenses that Purdue has had to face. Toledo ranks 106th in the nation in total defense, giving up 476 yards per game, while Eastern Illinois (386 yds/game) ranks 99th, Central Michigan (509.8 yds/game) 115th, and Minnesota (543.3 yds/game) 119th. It sounds strange to say it, but the Fighting Irish will be the BEST defensive team that Purdue has faced so far this year.
- The third point relates to the overall quality of Purdue's defense: while the Boilermakers rank 15th in pass efficiency defense at 97.3 yards per game, they've given up 147 yards per game on the ground, good for 61st in the nation, and last week's game saw Minnesota rush for 232 yards against them. This bodes well for an Irish running game that started to get rolling last week, with their three underclassmen tailbacks totaling 150 yards between them against a Michigan State team that ranks 26th in the nation in rushing defense. If the Irish can run the ball effectively once again and keep Purdue off the field, they'll have a shot.
(Team statistics courtesy of NCAA.org.)
S
SouthieND04
Guest
Darn straight. GOOO IRISH! BEAT BOILERS!!!
B
buckeyebacker
Guest
Where's the game?
We can beat Purdue.....just keep #20 and #22 off the field. Use freshmen as necessary or get a couple of walkons from the stands. I regret coming down hard on the two but there has been absolutely no improvement in the performance of either one this year.
irish4ever
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Everyone questioned Michigan (Appl. St. and Oregon, both at home) and MSU early opponents prior to their games w/ ND, yet they both decisively spanked the Irish. Not to totally remove this (a team's opponent) from your reason for hope, don't put a whole lot of emphasis on it. Purude's offense is extremely good year ... regardless of who they've played!
johnnd05
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Oh, I know their offense is good. It's their defense that I have some hope about: and if we can pound the ball and keep Painter off the field ... you never know. I'm not predicting a win, just a non-blowout.
johnnd05
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From the Roundup:
Pound it
I know it's been discussed before, but it's worth emphasizing: if Notre Dame is going to beat Purdue this weekend, they're going to do it by running the ball successfully. Here's a breakdown of ND's last four games against Purdue: two losses under Tyrone Willingham in 2003 and 2004, and two wins under Charlie Weis in 2005 and 2006.
What these numbers make clear is exactly what most of us already thought: if you run the ball successfully against the Boilermakers, you can win the game, and if you don't, you can't. (Let me re-emphasize this point for all those bemoaning how historically bad our offense has been this year: in 2003 and 2004 Willingham managed an average of 57.5 rushing yards a game against PURDUE.)
When asked about his game plan for Saturday, Coach Weis said on Tuesday that a key aspect of it is "that you have to try your best to try to keep their offense off the field." Interestingly, though, a closer look at Purdue's numbers from last year doesn't necessarily bear out the specific importance of possessing the ball for long periods of time. Here's a game-by-game rundown of Purdue's wins and losses from the 2006 season, with their opponents' rushing statistics and time of possession:
So these numbers don't indicate a strong relationship between POSSESSING the ball, and so keeping the Purdue offense off the field, and beating the Boilermakers. They do, though, reemphasize the importance of gaining serious yardage on the ground, and also give further support to a point I made yesterday: namely, that Purdue is REALLY BAD at defending the run. (316 rushing yards given up to ILLINOIS?!)
Come Saturday, then, the best hope for Irish fans is to see a good deal of this:
<object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/VezoOV4L66M"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/VezoOV4L66M" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>
Pound it
I know it's been discussed before, but it's worth emphasizing: if Notre Dame is going to beat Purdue this weekend, they're going to do it by running the ball successfully. Here's a breakdown of ND's last four games against Purdue: two losses under Tyrone Willingham in 2003 and 2004, and two wins under Charlie Weis in 2005 and 2006.
What these numbers make clear is exactly what most of us already thought: if you run the ball successfully against the Boilermakers, you can win the game, and if you don't, you can't. (Let me re-emphasize this point for all those bemoaning how historically bad our offense has been this year: in 2003 and 2004 Willingham managed an average of 57.5 rushing yards a game against PURDUE.)
When asked about his game plan for Saturday, Coach Weis said on Tuesday that a key aspect of it is "that you have to try your best to try to keep their offense off the field." Interestingly, though, a closer look at Purdue's numbers from last year doesn't necessarily bear out the specific importance of possessing the ball for long periods of time. Here's a game-by-game rundown of Purdue's wins and losses from the 2006 season, with their opponents' rushing statistics and time of possession:
So these numbers don't indicate a strong relationship between POSSESSING the ball, and so keeping the Purdue offense off the field, and beating the Boilermakers. They do, though, reemphasize the importance of gaining serious yardage on the ground, and also give further support to a point I made yesterday: namely, that Purdue is REALLY BAD at defending the run. (316 rushing yards given up to ILLINOIS?!)
Come Saturday, then, the best hope for Irish fans is to see a good deal of this:
<object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/VezoOV4L66M"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/VezoOV4L66M" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>
Johnnd05 - great post, and solid points. One thing you said was "if you run the ball successfully against the Boilermakers, you can win the game, and if you don't, you can't". This goes for any team we play (i.e. USC '05).
We will have to show consistency when PU puts 8-9 in the box...whether that means picking up blocks or Claussen executing a short yardage pass play. We will need ot hold the ball from 40 minutes to win this game, and keep Purdue under 20. Tough job ahead, but that's the only way (oh and a punt return by Golden Tate)
We will have to show consistency when PU puts 8-9 in the box...whether that means picking up blocks or Claussen executing a short yardage pass play. We will need ot hold the ball from 40 minutes to win this game, and keep Purdue under 20. Tough job ahead, but that's the only way (oh and a punt return by Golden Tate)
johnnd05
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Thanks Wally. Like I said, I don't actually think time of possession itself is THAT important. I'd put turnover margin and field position ahead of it, FWIW.
Agreed, but I also think there is a direct correlation between field position and time of possession. Turnovers will be huge if our "D" can make something happen. We've really only had one big "D" play this year (Walls vs PSU). A good punt return, an interception returned on their side of the 50, a big pass play over 40 yards. Anything to take the wind out of and momentum from PU.
Overall, I think our O line can match up well with PU D line. They historically are small on the D front (not sure about this year). I say we at least try to push them around like we did for a few drives last week. It's all about sustaining after halftime.
Overall, I think our O line can match up well with PU D line. They historically are small on the D front (not sure about this year). I say we at least try to push them around like we did for a few drives last week. It's all about sustaining after halftime.