lattedatte seems to be buying into the Lou Holtz scenerio scheming of somehow hoping that all the undefeated teams lose one game so Nd can have a shot at the title game. I wonder what he was saying about PSU before they played Nd. Seriously, dream on, it's never happened before. I'm not saying we'll be in the championship game, but I am 99% sure Nd won't be there, and if they are, it's a crying shame.
Our camp is divided on this game, much the same way you guys are. Some think we'll just roll because PSU is an inexperienced team, but I tend to agree with those who worry.
First, the game is at Happy Valley. They are very angry about what happened last year, so the atmosphere will be wild. PSU's has a good run defense and a horrific (and I mean awful) secondary. But I fear that if they stop the run, Henne will be forced to make tough throws that kept Troy Smith out of balance (the PSU-OSU game this year was close for 3.5 quarters). The key will be Hart. Can the OL give him room to establish the running game. If so, easy victory. If not, I can see an upset.
Another important key is stopping PSU's running game. Now, though I can see us winning the game if our run game is not established, there is no way PSU can win without establishing Hunt. If Morelli can't playaction, he will be sacked or he will throw picks. He's just not in sync with his excellent recievers now, and that rarely changes in a week (It didn't change for Henne for the entire 2005 season). It didn't even happen against Minnesota, a game that was given to them by the refs on a phantom "pass interference" call that would have ended the game for Minnesota. In every game Morelli has played, he seems to be slow in his decisionmaking, oftentimes not reading defenses correctly or consistenly. He throws a great deep ball one moment, and then throw a horrible ball right into the defenders hands. That's why he's so vulnerable to picks. These symptions make it even more unlikely that he will simply emerge. But they will have to gamble anyways. Otherwise they lose the game.
As much as I like Manningham's big play ability, he's not the HART of this offense. It's no surprise that our success often hinges on his health. When we was out last year, we lost. When he was healthy, he won. We are also benefiting from a Henne that has really come alive this year, performing very well in pressure situations. Manningham is not a mature reciever yet. You see the big plays on tv, but you don't see the drops or the fact that he sometimes runs bad routes (this was not the case against Nd, but in almost every game afterwards you saw some of these weakness). Obviously he will be missed, but it's not the end of the world.
It will be interesting to see which one of our recievers matches up with Justin King. If they put him on Arrington, then Breaston will have to step up (as a senior native of PA who's underachieved at the WR postion, he'll need to be effective). I also expect the TE to be open all the time. Hart can roam the backfield and get passes, too (He is very good in that area)
Henne has the additional incentive of coming back to his home state and the team he vanquished. Apparently, Paterno pushed extremely hard for Henne, and Henne apparently promised Paterno that he would commit to PSU, only to change his mind last minute. That resulted in PSU recruiting Anthony Morelli. His performance will also matter.
I'm pretty confident Hart can run against the PSU defense. PSU's rush defense is good up the middle but is weak on the sides. This was exploited by OSU, who repeatedly sent Pittman to the sidelines, resulting in good yardage. But Hart can't do this alone. Smith was uncharacteristically off during the PSU game, and Henne will have to make some throws in order for us to win the game. He has done this before, and I believe he is motivated. The key is getting the crowd out of the game immediately.
