Notre Dame Bubble Watch

[irishfan]

In the field of 65, there are 31 automatic bids and 34 at-large bids. According to ESPN's most recent bubble watch there are 7 conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, PAC-10, SEC, Mountain West) that are guaranteed to have multiple bids. Between these 7 conferences, there are a total of 28 "locks" or teams that are guaranteed to be in. Factoring in the 24 other conferences automatic bids, that leaves 52 spots for the tournament already taken. That leaves a total of 29 "bubble" teams fighting for the last 13 at-large spots.

Bubble Teams

Boston College-Playing Virginia in 1st round of ACC Tournament. A win would guarantee a tournament berth.
Miami-Playing Virginia Tech in 1st round of ACC Tournament. Would have to beat UNC in the 2nd round to guarantee a tournament berth.
Virginia Tech-Playing Miami in 1st round of NCAA Tournament. Would have to beat UNC in the 2nd round to guarantee a tournament berth.
Maryland-Playing NC State in 1st round of NCAA Tournament. Would have to beat Wake Forest in 2nd round to put themselves in a position to get a berth.
Providence-Would take 2 wins, including one over Louisville, for Providence to get a NCAA Tournament berth.
Cincinnati-Need 3 wins, including one over Louisville, for Cincy to get back on the bubble.
Notre Dame-Will take 3 wins (including wins over WVU and PITT) for ND to position themselves back on the bubble.
Georgetown-Similar to Notre Dame, will need 3 wins (including wins over Marquette and Villanova) for Gtown to have any chance.
Wisconsin-Plays Ohio State in the 1st round of Big 10 Tournament. Winner is guaranteed in. Loser still has a good chance of getting an at-large bid.
Ohio State-Plays Wisconsin in the 1st round of Big 10 Tournament. Winner is guaranteed in. Loser still has a good chance of getting an at-large bid.
Minnesota-Plays Northwestern in the 1st Round. A win, and they have a great chance of getting a bid. A win in the 2nd round (Mich. State) and they are guaranteed in.
Michigan-Plays Iowa in the 1st round. A win puts them close to getting a bid, and a win in the 2nd round over Illinois would guarantee a spot. A loss to Iowa would be awful for their chances.
Penn State-Plays Indiana in the 1st round. A loss would elimante Penn State while a win puts them directly on the bubble. A win in the next round over Purdue would guarantee a bid.
Northwestern-Plays Minnesota in the 1st round. Would most likely need to win in the 2nd round (against Mich. State) to get back on the bubble.
Oklahoma State-Play Iowa State in the 1st round of the Big 12 Tournament. A win there pretty much guarantees a spot in the tourney. A loss, and they are back on the bubble.
Kansas State-Must advance to the Semis of the Big 12 tourney to even have a chance. Would take a win over Texas to get that far. A win in the Semis would guarantee a spot, while a loss to Texas in the quarterfinals would pretty much guarantee NIT.
Arizona-Would be in if the season started today, but probably has to beat Arizona State in the Pac-10 Tournament to guarantee a spot. A loss, and they are directly on the bubble and could go either way.
USC-Needs 2 wins (over CAL and UCLA) in order to get in.
South Carolina-Needs 1 win in the SEC Tournament (over Miss. State/Georgia) to get in. A loss, and they are squarely on the bubble.
Florida-A win over Auburn in the SEC Quarterfinals would pretty much guarantee a spot.
Auburn-Needs to beat Florida in the SEC Tournament to be in a position to get a bid. Any win after that, and they're in.
Kentucky-Needs to advance to the SEC Finals to have any chance. A trip to the SEC finals, and they're in.
San Diego State-Plays UNLV in the quarterfinals of MWC Tournament. A win in they are most likely in.
UNLV-Plays SDSU in quarterfinals of MWC Tournament. Would have to win that game, and then most likely beat BYU in the Semis to have a chance.
New Mexico-Will most likely need two wins in MWC tourney to have a chance.
Dayton-As long as they beat the winner of St. Bonaventure/Richmond in the A-10 Tournament, they should be in. A loss there, and they are directly on the bubble.
Creighton-Got blown out in the MVC Tournament. Depending on how the other bubble teams do, they could go either way.
Temple-Need to get to the A-10 final to have any chance.
St. Marys-Need a good showing in the WCC Final tonight against Gonzaga to have a chance. Even with the loss, they would have a strong case for being in.
Rhode Island-Need to make the A-10 final (would include beating Dayton) to have any chance.

 

[irishfan]

Bubble Games for Monday, March 9th

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga-Gonzaga is a lock, and St. Mary's will be as well as long as they don't get blown out. A big win by Gonzaga could open up another bubble spot.

Siena vs. Niagra-Siena has a srong resume and even with a loss, could still sneak in with an at-large bid. A win by Siena would keep another team off the bubble.

 

[SoCalDomer]

i hate to burst the bubble, but this seems highly unlikely.

 

[irishfan]

i hate to burst the bubble, but this seems highly unlikely.

Yes, but it's really not too unlikely to think that they can beat Rutgers and WVU to reach the quarterfinals against Pitt where they could be playing for a tournament bid. I just feel like if ND managed to beat Pitt, then they would have beaten two of the top 5 teams in the country, and would have to be taken seriously for an at-large bid.

 

[PADOMERNUT]

unlikely yes......impossible no

that is the great thing about basketball, its settled on the court, everyone has a chance, however unlikely it may be

 

[TDHeysus]

even if they make the NCAA's, it will be a quick exit.


1 win.....maybe

 

[PADOMERNUT]

even if they make the NCAA's, it will be a quick exit.


1 win.....maybe

so yea its just better to quit then. that is the worst logic i have ever heard.

 

[SoCalDomer]

Yes, but it's really not too unlikely to think that they can beat Rutgers and WVU to reach the quarterfinals against Pitt where they could be playing for a tournament bid. I just feel like if ND managed to beat Pitt, then they would have beaten two of the top 5 teams in the country, and would have to be taken seriously for an at-large bid.

my hopes having been dashed in the final moments (or in some cases, early) of too many ND hard court games this year prevent me from sharing any sort of optimism. i do long for that optimism though.

 

[Folsteam_Ahead]

20 wins with a victory against Pitt will get us in but we have to play inspired, like the maui invitational.

 

[irishfan]

Bubble Games for Monday, March 9th

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga-Gonzaga is a lock, and St. Mary's will be as well as long as they don't get blown out. A big win by Gonzaga could open up another bubble spot.

Siena vs. Niagra-Siena has a srong resume and even with a loss, could still sneak in with an at-large bid. A win by Siena would keep another team off the bubble.

Good news from last nights games, as Gonzaga beat St. Marys by 25, placing St. Marys in a tough position. Most experts are already saying that St. Marys will be the most debated team by the selection committee. Siena took care of business against Niagara as well.

 

[phork]

The projections make me scratch my head. I am unsure how MSU isn't a #1 seed...
Stranger things have happened, but I think its NIT this year.

 

[irishfan]

Bubble Teams

Boston College-Playing Virginia in 1st round of ACC Tournament. A win would guarantee a tournament berth.
Miami-Playing Virginia Tech in 1st round of ACC Tournament. Would have to beat UNC in the 2nd round to guarantee a tournament berth.
Virginia Tech-Playing Miami in 1st round of NCAA Tournament. Would have to beat UNC in the 2nd round to guarantee a tournament berth.
Maryland-Playing NC State in 1st round of NCAA Tournament. Would have to beat Wake Forest in 2nd round to put themselves in a position to get a berth.
Providence-Would take 2 wins, including one over Louisville, for Providence to get a NCAA Tournament berth.
Notre Dame-Will take 3 wins (including wins over WVU and PITT) for ND to position themselves back on the bubble.
Wisconsin-Plays Ohio State in the 1st round of Big 10 Tournament. Winner is guaranteed in. Loser still has a good chance of getting an at-large bid.
Ohio State-Plays Wisconsin in the 1st round of Big 10 Tournament. Winner is guaranteed in. Loser still has a good chance of getting an at-large bid.
Minnesota-Plays Northwestern in the 1st Round. A win, and they have a great chance of getting a bid. A win in the 2nd round (Mich. State) and they are guaranteed in.
Michigan-Plays Iowa in the 1st round. A win puts them close to getting a bid, and a win in the 2nd round over Illinois would guarantee a spot. A loss to Iowa would be awful for their chances.
Penn State-Plays Indiana in the 1st round. A loss would elimante Penn State while a win puts them directly on the bubble. A win in the next round over Purdue would guarantee a bid.
Northwestern-Plays Minnesota in the 1st round. Would most likely need to win in the 2nd round (against Mich. State) to get back on the bubble.
Oklahoma State-Play Iowa State in the 1st round of the Big 12 Tournament. A win there pretty much guarantees a spot in the tourney. A loss, and they are back on the bubble.
Kansas State-Must advance to the Semis of the Big 12 tourney to even have a chance. Would take a win over Texas to get that far. A win in the Semis would guarantee a spot, while a loss to Texas in the quarterfinals would pretty much guarantee NIT.
Arizona-Would be in if the season started today, but probably has to beat Arizona State in the Pac-10 Tournament to guarantee a spot. A loss, and they are directly on the bubble and could go either way.
USC-Needs 2 wins (over CAL and UCLA) in order to get in.
South Carolina-Needs 1 win in the SEC Tournament (over Miss. State/Georgia) to get in. A loss, and they are squarely on the bubble.
Florida-A win over Auburn in the SEC Quarterfinals would pretty much guarantee a spot.
Auburn-Needs to beat Florida in the SEC Tournament to be in a position to get a bid. Any win after that, and they're in.
Kentucky-Needs to advance to the SEC Finals to have any chance. A trip to the SEC finals, and they're in.
San Diego State-Plays UNLV in the quarterfinals of MWC Tournament. A win in they are most likely in.
UNLV-Plays SDSU in quarterfinals of MWC Tournament. Would have to win that game, and then most likely beat BYU in the Semis to have a chance.
New Mexico-Will most likely need two wins in MWC tourney to have a chance.
Dayton-As long as they beat the winner of St. Bonaventure/Richmond in the A-10 Tournament, they should be in. A loss there, and they are directly on the bubble.
Creighton-Got blown out in the MVC Tournament. Depending on how the other bubble teams do, they could go either way.
Temple-Need to get to the A-10 final to have any chance.
St. Marys-Need a good showing in the WCC Final tonight against Gonzaga to have a chance. Even with the loss, they would have a strong case for being in.
Rhode Island-Need to make the A-10 final (would include beating Dayton) to have any chance.

Now, only 27 teams going for 13 spots, as both Georgetown and Cincy were eliminated today with losses in the Big East Tournament.

 

[irishfan]

Bubble Games for Tuesday, March 10th

Notre Dame 61, Rugers 50
Depaul 67, Cincy 57
St. Johns 64, Georgetown 59

Butler vs. Cleveland State-Championship game of Horizon League. Butler is a lock for the tourney, so a win by Cleveland State would take away a spot for a bubble team.

 

[irishfan]

Cleveland State is leading Butler 52-48 with 7 minutes left.

 

[irishfan]

Cleveland State held on for a 57-54 win. Now only 12 bubble spots.

 

[irishfan]

Bubble Games for Wednesday, March 11

Depaul vs. Providence-Even with a win, Providence would have to beat Louisville in the quarterfinals to have a chance of getting a bid.
West Virginia vs. Notre Dame-Notre Dame would have to win this game, and then beat Pitt the following night to have a good chance at the NCAAs.
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State-Win, and Oklahoma State is in. Lose, and they're right on the bubble.

 

[mooneytostle]

we are going to have to play a lot better if we want to beat West Virginia. We looked like garbage tonight.

 

[PADOMERNUT]

it doesnt matter if you look like garbage. style points are non existant in march. it is survive and advance, nothing more.

 

[Folsteam_Ahead]

last i saw harangody was 3 for 17 against rutgers. that's unacceptable. we need to stomp wvu to get any attention from the committee bc we're not beating pitt.

 

[mooneytostle]

it doesnt matter if you look like garbage. style points are non existant in march. it is survive and advance, nothing more.

let me simplify what I said: If we play tonight against West Virginia in a similar manner to how we played last night against Rutgers...we won't survive b/c we will get smoked.

 

[irishfan]

Providence beat Depaul 83-74. They play Louisville tomorrow in what will be a "win and they're in" game.

 

[fitz_bu47]

THe Irish bubble got burst tonight sadly.

 

[KAPLAN]

POP see you in the NIT as a 3 seed

 

[IrishAddiction]

ND didnt win the games they needed to. And there is no BCS loophole for us in college basketball.... gonna see em in the NIT.

 

[NeuteredDoomer]

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