NFL draft and star ratings

anarin

They call me Chuck.
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So after reading through most of the comments made after signing day (good and bad), I got to thinking "What were the top prospects star ratings coming into college?" (My data comes from CBS Sports and Rivals)

A vast majority of the people on this board feel that a recruiting class is a success or failure based on how many 5 star and 4 star athletes you get. I saw plenty of comments saying this class was a failure because we failed to land Darby, Decker, Tee's Cousin, Marshall and countless other high rated athletes. The question is; If you are one of the people that put their stock in star ratings, do you believe in the coaching staff we have in place at Notre Dame? If you don't have faith BK and company can get the very best out of these players they recruit, then maybe the below stats will make you feel at ease with the players we just recruited.

In 2008 there were thirty 5 :s: athletes listed.
In 2009 there were thirty three 5 :s: athletes listed.

In the top 50 NFL prospects listed below there are:

Five - 5 :s: athletes
Twenty four - 4 :s: athletes
Sixteen - 3 :s: athletes
Five - 2 :s: athletes

Yeah thats right, there are the same number of two star athletes in the top 50 for the NFL Draft as five star athletes. Still believe stars are everything?

1 Andrew Luck :s::s::s::s: 68 national
2 Matt Kalil :s::s::s::s::s: 11 national
3 Robert Griffin III :s::s::s::s:
4 Morris Claiborne :s::s::s:
5 Trent Richardson :s::s::s::s::s: 6 national
6 Justin Blackmon :s::s::s:
7 Devon Still :s::s::s::s:
8 Riley Reiff :s::s::s:
9 Jonathan Martin :s::s::s:
10 Dre Kirkpatrick :s::s::s::s::s: 11 national
11 David DeCastro :s::s::s:
12 Quinton Coples :s::s::s::s: 105 national
13 Michael Brockers :s::s::s::s: 201 national
14 Nick Perry :s::s::s::s: 56 national
15 Kendall Wright :s::s::s:
16 Luke Kuechly :s::s::s:
17 Janoris Jenkins :s::s::s::s: 51 national
18 Mark Barron :s::s::s::s: 55 national
19 Melvin Ingram :s::s::s::s:
20 Courtney Upshaw :s::s::s::s: 131 national
21 Peter Konz :s::s::s::s:
22 Michael Floyd :s::s::s::s::s: 27 national
23 Jerel Worthy :s::s::s:
24 Whitney Mercilus :s::s::s:
25 Fletcher Cox :s::s::s::s: 94 national
26 Cordy Glenn :s::s::s::s: 137 national
27 Alfonzo Dennard :s::s::s:
28 Dontari Poe :s::s:
29 Ryan Tannehill :s::s::s:
30 Dont'a Hightower :s::s::s::s:
31 Mike Adams :s::s::s::s::s: 3 national
32 Dwayne Allen :s::s::s::s:
32 Brandon Thompson :s::s::s::s: 114 national
33 Zach Brown :s::s::s::s:
34 Andre Branch :s::s:
35 Mohamed Sanu :s::s::s:
36 Coby Fleener :s::s::s:
37 Lamar Miller :s::s::s::s: 80 national
38 Lavonte David :s::s::s::s:
39 Brandon Washington :s::s::s::s: 147 national
40 Stephon Gilmore :s::s::s::s: 84 national
41 David Wilson :s::s::s::s: 40 national
42 Kelechi Osemele :s::s::s:
44 Zebrie Sanders :s::s::s::s: 128 national
45 Alshon Jeffery :s::s::s::s: 99 national
46 Bobby Wagner :s::s:
47 Leonard Johnson :s::s::s:
48 Doug Martin :s::s:
49 Jared Crick :s::s::s:
50 Kendall Reyes :s::s:

Now you've seen the figures above.

Notre Dame landed:

5 :s:
Gunner Kiel - 20 national

4 :s:
Sheldon Day - 240 national
Jarron Jones - 199 national
William Mahone - 197 national
KeiVarae Russell - 124 national
Tee Shepard - 76 national
Elijah Shumate - 113 national
Ronnie Stanley - 176 national

Understandably, when you see the high star value attached to a player you get excited. But according to stats above, you have to think realistically. There is a great chance that the "other" recruits we picked up will add more value then some of the ones above.

Stanford had four players on the top 50, three of them were 3 :s: players.

These recruits are the ones we could be cheering loudest for on gameday:

Chris Brown (this guy is supposedly the steal of the recruiting process, the last person I read that had that title was the 4th guy on the top 50 draft board. Morris Claiborne)
Romeo Okwara
CJ Prosise
Nicky Baratti
Justin Ferguson
John Turner (I believe this guy will suprise many, the chip has been put on his shoulder by his own fanbase)
Mark Harrell

And hell, even Scott Daly. How many times have you seen the long snapper get down field and make a play?

Now you may look at this entire post with your pessimism and dismiss it entirely, saying " well these stats don't mean anything because...." or you may look at it with optimism. I am the optimistic guy that sees 23 of the top 50 NFL recruits with 3 or lower stars, and I say to myself "these guys had the drive to succeed", and I believe that the stars on a player matter to a certain extent. It's the coach that selects these players and I know that BK would only get players that have the drive to succeed, so whether they are 2 or 5 star players, BK will get the most of the athlete you see on the field.

Take this thread how you will, I hope I could bring a little knowledge to you, or at the very least something to read. I had a game plan going into this thread, then I ended up being all over the place. Go Irish!
 
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IrishJayhawk

Rock Chalk
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I appreciate the info.

I don't think, however, that anyone thinks that stars are everything. The more telling statistic would be the percentage of 5-star players rather than the number. There are somewhere around 30 five star guys and hundreds of four and three star guys.

Stars are not the be all, end all. But, they are relatively good predictors.
 

eNDzone

Irish to the bone!
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Good work anarin. Many fail to see that the system that a new recruit is coming into may or may not be better for a 2* than a 5*. Also, teammates make a big difference in the performance of a new recruit . Do they come into an environment where the veterans are willing to help or view them as a threat to their position? Will the teammate next to them fulfill his responsibility or go for the glory and leave them hanging and make them look bad?

It just comes down whether you prefer a Unit full of Big Star players a Team full of hard working, Responsible Men regardless of their star ratings.
 

NDFANnSouthWest

We are ND!
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Great work on this thread. My thought on stars is that a player can come out of HS as a 5 star, and some players end there college careers as 5 star players. Bottom line every athlete peeks at different times.
 
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