Turnovers will determine it all
Turnovers will determine it all
What we've seen from ND this year in the TO department will only be more glaring next year in that when/if we get TO happy we will get hammered. Without a true game changer like a R. Bush or V. Young that can just take over a game or a stifling defense, we are going to have to be very very efficient to acheive anything more than 8-4.
And while we will definitely be throwing out a lot of new starters and they will certainly experience significant growing pains, please remember that a.) those kids are very good and b.) our opponents are also having to fill key spots on their rosters.
GT - breaking in a new QB (arguably good news for GT fans) and losing all-world man-beast Calvin Johnson along with a few key guys on D.
PSU - front seven is going to take a significant hit to graduation and the draft. and levi brown on OL is done as well. going to be very fun to watch this game.
UM - very scary game, but if we avoid the complete self-immolation routine that this year's team performed it'll be respectable if not within the boundaries of a serendipitous event. they are going to replace many of their playmakers on D (woodley, perhaps branch, biggs, hall)
MSU - their offense is GONE. a number of linemen return but the playmakers are GONE. this def wont be the high scoring affair it's been the past couple years.
PU - should be interesting point in the season. the team has had 4 real games under their belts. will the experience have outpaced exhaustion at this point?
UCLA - defense defense defense. they'll be stout and ready to play 60 minutes. still, and i'm digressing a bit here, despite all claims that they "handled" us this year, ND had sig more first downs, pass yds, rush yds, and 3 more points. all UCLA did was come up with big plays (sacks) that stalled drives just enough to prevent the score from being 34-17. UCLA merely outplayed expectations, not ND. ND "handled" UCLA, but couldnt find the follow through on drives. the bastards were held to less than a yard per carry!!! WTF!
anywho, tough game....again, turnovers....how will they fall?
BC - Dear God, I have no idea. they look to be very experienced, but who the hell knows here. dont even want to speculate on this one.
USC - a scary team, but are they losing coordination? and how will thier grad/draft attrition really pan out? key non-seniors (l. jackson, s. baker, f. davis) along with certain departures (smith, jarrett, sartz, lua, k. williams) will leave this team wanting at several positions.
the rest should not be an issue. say what you will about the experience of navy, determination of air force they should not lose these games under any circumstances.
To revisit the TO situation, we should win roughly eight of these games unless the TO fairy visits the team in unimaginable ways against the teams we should beat.
UM and USC look like likely losses.
BC, UCLA, PSU, look like toss-ups
PU, GT we should definitely beat unless disaster strikes
the rest are likely Ws.
Assuming we only take one of the toss-ups we have our 8 wins and a semblance of respectability, a full season of development for the youngsters, and a team ready to begin kicking ass and taking names in 2008.
