ND will average 40 pnts per game...

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

1. Returning qbs average +2.8 pnts per game better the next yr.

2. Returning offensive starters add an average of +1 pnt per game per player above a base of 6 (ie. return 9 players = +3pnts).

3. Since ND averaged 36.7 pnts per game, the return of a seasoned qb with a supporting cast of at least 6+ should add at least +3.5 to the average per game.

4. Data based upon 88 Div 1A teams (sorry it is not all 117, but the data was free).

GO IRISH!

Tom

 

[Irish Envy]

Does that take in account strength of schedule differences?

 

[isotopes]

I'm not sure I care if strength of schedule is included.... that just sounds impressive

 

[Indydomer]

I don't care how many they score a game as long as they win. But 40 a game wouldn't bother me one bit.

Who the hell has the time to sit down and figure out these stats like this? Must be a boring ass job. But good topic starters.

 

[brucejcarr]

40 Points is great, but if they give up 41 we lose. This defense scares me!

 

[jiggafini19]

Yes. It wil be rather unsettling to me if they're scoring 40 and giving up 30. Ohio State's defense took them to task.

Not sure they face a D that talented this year, but USC will be ready come November as long as everyone is eligible and out of prison by then.

 

[LuckoftheIrish86]

Yes. It wil be rather unsettling to me if they're scoring 40 and giving up 30. Ohio State's defense took them to task.

Not sure they face a D that talented this year, but USC will be ready come November as long as everyone is eligible and out of prison by then.

No way they will face a D as talented as Ohio State's this year.

Toughest D they will probably play this year is Penn State's. With Posluszny at LB and King at CB they will be tough.

 

[jiggafini19]

Toughest D they will probably play this year is Penn State's. With Posluszny at LB and King at CB they will be tough.

And considering how many starters they've lost and the game is at home, I'm thinking this bodes well for the season.

 

[Gizmo]

Easton Pa ND Fan, was there any similar data for defense? I'd love to see how many points a returning defensive player takes away.

Defense is obviously still a concern for us, but from what I saw at the Blue & Gold Game I think that we have enough experienced players returning on defense to make an improvement (LBs withstanding). I look for an improved pass rush which I hope will really help out our secondary. How big that improvement will be is the real question. At the very least we better not pull a Purdue.

 

[guff]

Thanks for the effort Easton.

Having all three Academies on the schedule can't hurt the scoring average either.

 

[irish4life99]

No way they will face a D as talented as Ohio State's this year.

Toughest D they will probably play this year is Penn State's. With Posluszny at LB and King at CB they will be tough.

Remember we didn't meet Ohio in the regular season. Who know's who will be playing at the end of the season, or what kind of defense will be meeting in a BCS. Yes, I am confident enough to say BCS. A National Championship is another story. Even if we average 40 points a game if our defense does not improve we still will not have a perfect season.

 

[jiggafini19]

There was a nice stretch of BCS title games where defense was the showcase. The last two, bastardized by USC, have been shootouts. The one against OU being very one sided, of course.

I know they had a ton of talent, but whatever Ohio State did in that game schmatically will be looked at by the first couple of opponents on the 2006 schedule. Let's all remember that Stovall, Fasano, Stevenson and LeVoir are gone. And I am extremely cautious on placing the weight of replacing Stovall on Rhema McKnight's shoulders.

With GT's experienced offense and their depleted secondary, that game could end up being a competitive shootout. We're going to know right away how much better this defense has gotten.

 

[Indydomer]

Im predicting a blowout. These guys are going to want to come out and prove that they are better than last year, and you know the db's would love to shut down arguably the best wr's in the nation. Wouldn't that be a boost of confidence right off the bat!

 

[maison bleu]

If you believe sports cliches....

Defense Wins Championships.

 

[06nationalchamps]

I think we could score 40 a game, but it will definitely be harder with the strength of schedule. Ohio State made our offense look pretty bad but we will not play a d as tough as them, though the Nittany Lions come close. Our D is a little shakier but will be fine. They'll defnitely have to step it up to have a chance at the National Championship.

 

[guff]

I believe the offense will rank with the all time greats of college football. From the way Weis talks about McKnight I almost think he will be better than Stovall. Replacing Fasano with Carlson/Freeman is an equal trade.

Fasano and Stovall were very good but they were not with out their weaknesses. Stovall would still suffer ocassional mental laspes and Fasano fumbled more than I would like and it always seemed to happen at the worst possible moment.

As nutty as it may sound Shelton may be the man most missed on offense. Everyone else is replaced by someone of equal ability. I'm not sure how Hord/Grimes and the incoming freshman will perform. They have the ability but will they step. I think so, but the jury is still out.

The other problem is depth. To sum the offense up: Electic talent, paper thin. If the injury bug bites prepare yourself for a disappointment. All of the starters must remain healthy for this team to have a chance.

As for the defense - I expect them to be better than expected (I'm not sure if Yogi Berra said that but he could have).

 

[irish4life99]

There was a nice stretch of BCS title games where defense was the showcase. The last two, bastardized by USC, have been shootouts. The one against OU being very one sided, of course.

I know they had a ton of talent, but whatever Ohio State did in that game schmatically will be looked at by the first couple of opponents on the 2006 schedule. Let's all remember that Stovall, Fasano, Stevenson and LeVoir are gone. And I am extremely cautious on placing the weight of replacing Stovall on Rhema McKnight's shoulders.

With GT's experienced offense and their depleted secondary, that game could end up being a competitive shootout. We're going to know right away how much better this defense has gotten.

This game reminds me a bit of Stanford to tell you the truth. Although I think the Defense will play good on their opening game. But to do it with consistency week in and week out is where we have the problem. As far as Rhema, I think he will fill the shoes of Stovall, just not in the first few games. He's gonna thinking about that knee. Until he gets hit one good time on it and get's right back up it will be a question and a worry in his mind.

GT does make me nervous, but if it ends up in a shoot out I like our chances. I just hate watching those nail biting games! I just want a defense when your offense puts you way ahead the defense don't give them a chance to come back ala Tenn, BYU, Stanford... PUT THEM AWAY!!

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

SOS not included, but here it is

SOS not included, but here it is

Does that take in account strength of schedule differences?

Jason,

ND's 2005 SOS was 100.29 (av of 4 best power ratings). In 2006, the starting SOS should be 94.74.

The worksheet compared columns of av pts/game against (1) # of returning offensive starters and (2) returning qb (using a 0 or 1).

About half of the 88 1A teams had returning qbs. These teams averaged 2.8+pts better per game. To get the offensive starters contribution ( and to cancel out help from returning qbs.), the group without returning qbs was used to determine the 1 pt per starter contribution.

Strength of schedule, by itself, suggests an increase in pts/game. Combined with returning starters and qb, it means better than 9 and 3.

I did not use rankings, rankings would not have allowed point predictions...

Tom

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

Boring ass hobby...

Boring ass hobby...

I don't care how many they score a game as long as they win. But 40 a game wouldn't bother me one bit.

Who the hell has the time to sit down and figure out these stats like this? Must be a boring ass job. But good topic starters.

Indydomer,

After recruiting ends, I gather up the yr end averages and totals from Rivals, NCAA game stats and 7 power ratings. It all goes into a work sheet with 117 team lines and multiple columns of data.

This started out as a cold winter night prove a point project. It is now a hour a night addiction.

What could keep you going on such a boring ass hobby?

1. Being able to predict (hopefully with some precision) and not just offer opinion.

2. Finding relationsips that run contrary to the talking heads (this keeps people posting!).

3. Give ND fans a superior knowledge base.

Tom

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

Defense data coming...

Defense data coming...

Easton Pa ND Fan, was there any similar data for defense? I'd love to see how many points a returning defensive player takes away.

Defense is obviously still a concern for us, but from what I saw at the Blue & Gold Game I think that we have enough experienced players returning on defense to make an improvement (LBs withstanding). I look for an improved pass rush which I hope will really help out our secondary. How big that improvement will be is the real question. At the very least we better not pull a Purdue.

Gizmo,

Give me a couple of days to put it together.

Tom

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

The strength of schedule dropped...

The strength of schedule dropped...

Thanks for the effort Easton.

Having all three Academies on the schedule can't hurt the scoring average either.

guff,

thanks to the academies. The power ratings of last yr's opponents was 100.29. This year the preseason rating should be 94.74.

I averaged the final ratings of Keeper, Born, Dunkel and Pigskin to come up with these numbers. These rating services were superior to the Las Vegas Line both straight up and against the spread.

Three other services achieved this level: Thompson SPRS, Burdorf and Congrove. Sagarin, my bible for the last 3 yrs, failed in the first half of the season.

Tom

 

[NDOM]

Better Defense in 2006!

Better Defense in 2006!

It is my opinion that Notre dame will have a better defense in 2006. With the leadership of tom zibikowski Notre Dame will be much improved and I have heard that Charlie Weis is concentrating more on the defensive side of things this year. Will that mean a weaker offense? HECK no! Notre Dame will more than likely average 35-40+ points per game I think!

 

[BigMattWW04]

I would say this season rests on the shoulders of the DL, and if they can get pressure on opposing QB's. A great pass rush makes All-American DB's. IMO The only other spot that really concerns me is the two open LB positions. If we can get some solid roleplayers in there, or possibly if one of the freshman are ready to go then the defense could be pretty good. I see the Irish going to LA 10-0, and with a big chip on their shoulders.