2020 Elections

Irish YJ

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Last 538 poll on FL I saw, I believe from Quin, had Biden +5.
Trump is up 3.5 now, and will probably increase as more panhandle come in.

So unless things change, which they could, polls were off 8.5%....
 

irishff1014

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Pennsylvania and Georgia won’t be known tonight. They will stop counting votes tonight
 

Irish YJ

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I say this for both sides. Imagine if they raised 1/10th of the money for homeless vets, childhood illness and or ther items.

I'm a huge proponent of killing most of the campaign spends..... Give everyone equal time on networks, and stop the nuclear arms races between the parties.

So much wasted money that could go for good.
 

Irish YJ

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Pennsylvania and Georgia won’t be known tonight. They will stop counting votes tonight

depends how big the delta is. I think there were 300k total mail in ballots in PA, and only 70k counted. So if someone wins by more than 230k, won't matter.

could be wrong about those numbers though.
 

Irish YJ

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Florida just called for Trump.
Pretty embarrassing for the Polls...
 

Sherm Sticky

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Anyone else find it funny that Tommy Tuberville won senate in Alabama? Most of y’all are probably to young to know who Tommy Tuberville is...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Irish YJ

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Anyone else find it funny that Tommy Tuberville won senate in Alabama? Most of y’all are probably to young to know who Tommy Tuberville is...

Hilarious...

He brings the flips to a net zero. James looks like another flip for the GOP, so getting harder and harder for a Dem path to take the senate.


Virginia jumped the gun it looks like.

Still way early there. IIRC, most of the unreported are blue counties. But it is really weird how early they called it for the Dems with Trump up earlier, and still. Lead is only 3ish pts now.
 

Irish YJ

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So even with losing AZ, looks like Trump would win even without PA or MN, if he wins both Wiscy and Michigan (assuming he wins GA, NC, IA, and OH which he's currently up). He's up 10ish in MI and 5 in WI
 

irishff1014

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So even with losing AZ, looks like Trump would win even without PA or MN, if he wins both Wiscy and Michigan (assuming he wins GA, NC, IA, and OH which he's currently up). He's up 10ish in MI and 5 in WI

Losing Arizona still hurt. And probably cost him a win tonight.
 

Irish YJ

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Losing Arizona still hurt. And probably cost him a win tonight.

IDK. Biden still needs 50 votes, and every state that's reporting except MN (10 votes) has Trump in the lead.

Nevada has not reported at all, is assumed Dem, considered a possible flip candidate by GOP, is only 6. Hawaii will go Biden but that's only 4.

Going to be close, but things are still tracking well for Trump. If MI and WI go Trump, I like Trump's chances.
 

Irish YJ

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Here's the current situation. Still very early, but Trump (-64) currently leaning/winning 89 votes in uncalled states. Biden (-50) only winning 14 in uncalled states. There's a path to win even without PA for Trump.

Biden -50 votes (for 270)
Trump -64 votes

Uncalled Trump Lean (89)
16 GA +7.6 (75% in)
15 NC +1.4 (94%)
16 MI +10.7 (50%)
10 WI +5 (72%)
6 IA +4.9 (85%)
3 MT +2.8 (51%)
20 PA +14.8 (54%)
3 AK - nothing reported

Uncalled Biden Lean (14)
10 MN +11.2 (68%)
4 HI - nothing reported


Uncalled Unknown
6 NV - nothing reported
 
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Irish YJ

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Analysis on unreported counties in MI is very promising for Trump given he already leads by 10pts.
 

Irish YJ

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I haven’t been this nervous in a long time.

I'm not nervous. I totally thought Biden would win, and I thought he'd win early. Same feeling I had in 2016.

That's not happening though, again lol. Poll were shit again. Pretty funny.

I was kinda hoping it would be called early so I could go to bed early... Looks like I'll be staying up late.
 

Irish YJ

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Not shocking, but MN called for Biden.

A lot of stuff going on about the AZ early call.

700k to 1M day-of votes still outstanding, and only a 200k lead for Biden. Might be an interesting follow in the next couple hours.
 
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irishff1014

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I'm not nervous. I totally thought Biden would win, and I thought he'd win early. Same feeling I had in 2016.

That's not happening though, again lol. Poll were shit again. Pretty funny.

I was kinda hoping it would be called early so I could go to bed early... Looks like I'll be staying up late.

I thought Biden would pick it to the line just like it is. But I was hoping for a landslide.
 

Irish YJ

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Latest analysis

GA - close to being called for GOP

MI - will end up being very close. Trump has a good lead, but a lot of early/mail in yet to be counted

WI - another one that will be very close with a lead now for GOP.

PA - big Trump lead now, but lots of mail in still uncounted.

NC - narrow lead for Trump, but analysis looks good for Trump.


Gonna be fun. If MI and WI go for Trump, PA might not matter. If Biden get MI or WI, PA could decide and take days....
 

Irish YJ

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Not shocking, but Montana called for Trump.

Senate looks to keep another seat too. Looking less and less likely for a Senate flip.
 
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