SoCalDomer
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Public Service Announcement:
I have no idea why I am posting this. This is more a rant, a release, an airing of utter frustration, group therapy without the group.
The questions raised herein probably have no answer. That means you derp posters who will post a reactionary hug hug, keees keees, beeeg keees, leeetle keees (in the voice of Nacho Libre) defense of Brian Kelly, fight the urge. You two-handed joystick grabbers who will be tempted to join a down-with-Kelly-chorus will be signing alone; I am not advocating a coaching change. So, with the understanding that there is no rational discussion capable of being maintained from my rhetorical musings, I say, Discuss!
=========================================================
After the Gunner Kiel decision, I remembered kuehnja’s post from way back (like 2 weeks way back)
and I began thinking, “What the hell is the matter with Brian Kelly that he could not land a 5-star QB right in his backyard?” Something is off. Seriously, what the bleep happened? And then I wondered, why is it Brian Kelly hasn’t really landed any can’t miss, top-50, elite talent on the offensive side of the ball?
That made me think, is Brian Kelly actually Lloyd Christmas? (In this scene Charlie Molnar will play the part of Harry.)
Take a look at the list of 5-star QBs from Rivals going back to 2002:
6 out of 10** Dual Threat QBs are on NFL rosters
(**Russell Shepard is still in College and also moved to WR)
8 out of 12** ProStyle QBs are on NFL rosters
(** Matt Barkley, Dayne Crist and Garret Gilbert are still in College)
Since Matt Barkly is certain to go to the NFL that means 15 out of the 24 (62.5%) 5-star QBs from 2002-2009 will be in the NFL. And I don’t think there is a need to discuss what those players meant to their college teams.
I’d say landing one of those 5-star guys is well worth the time and effort. This issue is one of probability. There is no guarantee a 5-star QB pans out. But when you consider that 62.5% played so well in college they ended up in the NFL (I have not taken the time to actually calculate the success rate of 3-star QBs, nor will I, but I suggest to you that it is likely very low), the choice is obvious: when you have a chance you take the #1, 5-star, top 25 overall QB, you let nothing stand in your way from recruiting that kid!
So where did it go wrong?
In fairness to Brian Kelly, Charlie didn’t help the situation by not landing a QB in 2009. When Clausen left early, the roster had only two scholarship QB’s and one of them was a former walk-on with a famous last name.
So in 2010, Kelly makes a short term fix and lands 4-QBs (Hendrix, Massa, Rees and Roback), but potentially creates a depth and space problem down the road. Roback immediately moves to defense, easing the depth problem but he still takes up a scholarship and is not a highly touted recruit at whatever position he moves to.
The space problem (i.e. total number of scholarships available) then fixes itself to a degree when Roback transfers. (But Kelly still has other space problems such as the urge to quickly fill depth, i.e. Heggie, or position mismanagment like multiple long snappers and too many kickers.)
Massa’s move to WR also helped ease the QB depth. But recruiting Massa only to move him to WR created another problem: Massa takes up a spot that could have been used to fill with a top-tier WR recruit who unlike Massa, will not need 2-3 years to learn the position. If you’re going to recruit guys and move them to a whole new position, they should at least be a top-100 ranked athlete so you know they are capable of playing that new position at a high level.
In 2011, Brian Kelly adds another QB recruit, Everett Golson, a speedy dual-threat QB. Many laud the move, since Golson (unlike the other QBs) is “able to fully run Brian Kelly’s offense” they say. I say, dumb move.
With Golson, ND now has 4- scholarship QBs going into the summer of 2011 and it appears they aren’t going to go hard after the #1 QB who is sitting in their backyard. I understand not recruiting a QB based on already having 4- on the roster, but let’s look at quality for a moment.
ND’s Dept at QB:
All of those guys might be good guys and solid players, but none of them compare to Gunner Kiel:
You mouth-breathers who are trying to soothe yourself with excuses like, “we don’t really need another QB right now”, or “we’ve got a guy like Golson who better fits BK’s offense” need to go back up to that 5-star list and think longer. When you have a chance to get the top QB, you position yourself and plan well ahead and you don’t let a roster full of 3-stars dissuade you from pursuing that QB like he is your #1 recruit.
IMO, taking Golson was a short-sighted mistake. I understand that you can’t pass this year in anticipation of landing someone for next year’s class, but the choice is really one of several bad choices surrounding the QB position. Another major gaffe by Brian Kelly (and possibly Charlie Molnar) is the handling of Dayne Crist.
If you scroll back up to the 5-star QB list, a guy on that can’t miss, top QB list is none other than Dayne Crist. After reading numerous articles by level headed sports writers like Eric Hansen, I believe Brian Kelly messed up the development and management of Dayne Crist. How exactly, I can't know. But look at that 5-star list again; there aren’t many complete and total busts on that list. The likelihood that Dayne Crist was just overrated or that he himself was completely responsible for his failure seems very low.
Brian Kelly had a #2, 5-star, top 25 overall ranked QB on his roster and now he failed to land a #1, 5-star, top 20 overall ranked QB. I think the problem may not be with the players/recruits. So what is the problem? Maybe he and Molnar never gelled as well as was necessary and it affected QBs and identifying talent. Could I be completely wrong? Sure. I’m just pointing out that something is seriously amiss with the handling of the QB position, which unfortunately happens to be the most important offensive position for Brian Kelly’s offense, and which is supposedly Brian Kelly’s strength.
If Brian Kelly handled it well and had Dayne Crist playing up to his potential, it seems ND would have had a better shot at landing Gunner Kiel (for a lot of reasons, including perception that BK is good at developing QBs, a good Dayne Crist = more wins = perception that the program is going somewhere good, he likely would not have recruited Golson because the depth would have been more secure with Crist, Rees and Hendrix alone and Brian Kelly never would have turned 5 shades of purple on national television or something.)
Other Offensive Recruiting Shortcomings
In addition to completely failing to do something with the 5-star, top 25 QB already on the roster and failing to land the top 5-star QB in his backyard, Brian Kelly’s other offensive recruiting success utterly baffles me.
The highest ranked (4-star, 5.9 Rivals Rating or higher) offensive players BK has landed so far are:
‘10 Matt James #86 overall (still makes me sad his life ended the way it did)
‘11 Matthew Hegarty #70 overall
‘11 Ben Koyack #82 overall
‘12 Deontay Greenberry #69 overall
That’s it: two offensive linemen, one receiver and one tight end as the top offensive recruits in 3 years. No 5-stars. No top 50 offensive players. And that seems unlikely to change this year.
In three recruiting classes, why can’t he land even one 5-star, can’t miss, immediate offensive difference making player like Michael Floyd, Robert Woods, DeAnthony Thomas or George Farmer? I don't think it’s a lack of effort.
It’s not the school, location, weather, etc., since in one class (2008) Weis landed the #20 (Rudolph), #25 (Crist) and #27 (Floyd) overall ranked recruits to play offense, and landed two 5-star QBs in back to back years (07-08). And Brian Kelly has been able to sign multiple top-50 defensive recruits.
So why has Brian Kelly, an offensive minded coach, failed to land any elite (top-50) talent for the offensive side of the ball? I know the defense needed some attention, but that doesn’t mean you have to ignore the offense.
Brian Kelly had a chance to land the #1 QB, with all the right conditions and none of the factors that usually cost ND the commitment, and he couldn't close the deal. It seems like Gunner’s choice is a direct rejection of Brian Kelly and his program. Or something. I do believe the failure to land Gunner Kiel will set the program’s National Championship aspirations back another couple years. I do not see any QB on the roster that has that kind of potential, and any QB for 2013 will not be able to make an impact before 2014 or 2015.
If Brian Kelly ran an offense that was not QB-centric, then this wouldn't be such an issue. But look at the difference between USC v. ND in 2010 without Matt Barkley versus USC v. ND in 2011 with Matt Barkley. When you have a chance to land a Matt Barkley, Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow, Matt tafford, Vince Young or Gunner Kiel, you do it!
Furthermore, I believe Hendrix takes the starting role from Rees in 2012. Then comes the question of whether Rees transfers to play out his eligibility, which puts ND back in the position it was in 2010, with only 2 QBs on the roster. And round we go.
All of this makes me want to snap on Brian Kelly like Ralphie did on Scott Farkis.
You no good razza frazzin muckin suckin rabble friggin mugga juggin rabbo gribbin dang gum plabbin gerbin
There, I feel better. Discuss. Or don’t. I’m going back inside to rub that leg-lamp. It’s a major award.
I have no idea why I am posting this. This is more a rant, a release, an airing of utter frustration, group therapy without the group.
The questions raised herein probably have no answer. That means you derp posters who will post a reactionary hug hug, keees keees, beeeg keees, leeetle keees (in the voice of Nacho Libre) defense of Brian Kelly, fight the urge. You two-handed joystick grabbers who will be tempted to join a down-with-Kelly-chorus will be signing alone; I am not advocating a coaching change. So, with the understanding that there is no rational discussion capable of being maintained from my rhetorical musings, I say, Discuss!
=========================================================
After the Gunner Kiel decision, I remembered kuehnja’s post from way back (like 2 weeks way back)
and I began thinking, “What the hell is the matter with Brian Kelly that he could not land a 5-star QB right in his backyard?” Something is off. Seriously, what the bleep happened? And then I wondered, why is it Brian Kelly hasn’t really landed any can’t miss, top-50, elite talent on the offensive side of the ball?
That made me think, is Brian Kelly actually Lloyd Christmas? (In this scene Charlie Molnar will play the part of Harry.)
Harry: I can’t believe this Lloyd, we come to Notre Dame and Charlie Weis, the offensive genius, leaves us with only two scholarship quarterbacks. Thankfully, one of them’s last name is Montana, so I guess he’s good cuz he’s from that big-sky state or something.
Lloyd: Harry, don’t worry. I’ve read about these elite quarterback recruits called blue-chips…
Harry: I like tortilla chips…
Lloyd: Stay with me Harry. These elite quarterbacks can set a program up for years. Just landing one of these guys can bring in other top recruits like the salmon flock to Capistrano. These 5-star quarterbacks lead their teams to BCS games, win Heisman Trophys, win National Championships and the majority of them end up in the NFL. I like that a-lot.
Harry: Too bad we don’t have one of those 5-star, top 50 overall ranked guys already on the roster. Where we gunner find one of those guys? I mean, our school is in the middle of nowhere Indiana, in a small town, cold weather --- by the way, don’t stick your tongue to a metal pole out here --- and this school hasn’t done much in the last few years.
Lloyd: I guess you’re right Harry. To land one of those guys, he’d have to be familiar with the school, maybe had a family member who already played here, he’d live close by, and we’d have to be careful not to fill the depth chart with a bunch of guys ahead of him.
Harry: Ya, good luck finding a guy like that. Maybe if we told him God wants him to come play for us…
Lloyd: No way, this school is not very religious Harry. But I guess you’re right. Man! When are we gonna catch our big break?
Lloyd: I've got it!. Let’s recruit not one, not two, not three quarterbacks, but let’s get four 3-star quarterbacks, I mean together they make like a 10-star recruit, which is 3-times as good as one 5-star guy.
Harry: Floyd, just when I think you can’t get any dumber, you totally redeem yourself! Hey take a look at this film of Tommy Rees. He’s not a 5-star but he has a lot of mucksy.
Lloyd: Mucksy?
Harry: Mucksy, you know, the ability to really muck stuff up.
Lloyd: Sounds like our kind of guy Harry.
Take a look at the list of 5-star QBs from Rivals going back to 2002:
6 out of 10** Dual Threat QBs are on NFL rosters
(**Russell Shepard is still in College and also moved to WR)
8 out of 12** ProStyle QBs are on NFL rosters
(** Matt Barkley, Dayne Crist and Garret Gilbert are still in College)
Since Matt Barkly is certain to go to the NFL that means 15 out of the 24 (62.5%) 5-star QBs from 2002-2009 will be in the NFL. And I don’t think there is a need to discuss what those players meant to their college teams.
I’d say landing one of those 5-star guys is well worth the time and effort. This issue is one of probability. There is no guarantee a 5-star QB pans out. But when you consider that 62.5% played so well in college they ended up in the NFL (I have not taken the time to actually calculate the success rate of 3-star QBs, nor will I, but I suggest to you that it is likely very low), the choice is obvious: when you have a chance you take the #1, 5-star, top 25 overall QB, you let nothing stand in your way from recruiting that kid!
So where did it go wrong?
In fairness to Brian Kelly, Charlie didn’t help the situation by not landing a QB in 2009. When Clausen left early, the roster had only two scholarship QB’s and one of them was a former walk-on with a famous last name.
So in 2010, Kelly makes a short term fix and lands 4-QBs (Hendrix, Massa, Rees and Roback), but potentially creates a depth and space problem down the road. Roback immediately moves to defense, easing the depth problem but he still takes up a scholarship and is not a highly touted recruit at whatever position he moves to.
The space problem (i.e. total number of scholarships available) then fixes itself to a degree when Roback transfers. (But Kelly still has other space problems such as the urge to quickly fill depth, i.e. Heggie, or position mismanagment like multiple long snappers and too many kickers.)
Massa’s move to WR also helped ease the QB depth. But recruiting Massa only to move him to WR created another problem: Massa takes up a spot that could have been used to fill with a top-tier WR recruit who unlike Massa, will not need 2-3 years to learn the position. If you’re going to recruit guys and move them to a whole new position, they should at least be a top-100 ranked athlete so you know they are capable of playing that new position at a high level.
In 2011, Brian Kelly adds another QB recruit, Everett Golson, a speedy dual-threat QB. Many laud the move, since Golson (unlike the other QBs) is “able to fully run Brian Kelly’s offense” they say. I say, dumb move.
With Golson, ND now has 4- scholarship QBs going into the summer of 2011 and it appears they aren’t going to go hard after the #1 QB who is sitting in their backyard. I understand not recruiting a QB based on already having 4- on the roster, but let’s look at quality for a moment.
ND’s Dept at QB:
All of those guys might be good guys and solid players, but none of them compare to Gunner Kiel:
You mouth-breathers who are trying to soothe yourself with excuses like, “we don’t really need another QB right now”, or “we’ve got a guy like Golson who better fits BK’s offense” need to go back up to that 5-star list and think longer. When you have a chance to get the top QB, you position yourself and plan well ahead and you don’t let a roster full of 3-stars dissuade you from pursuing that QB like he is your #1 recruit.
IMO, taking Golson was a short-sighted mistake. I understand that you can’t pass this year in anticipation of landing someone for next year’s class, but the choice is really one of several bad choices surrounding the QB position. Another major gaffe by Brian Kelly (and possibly Charlie Molnar) is the handling of Dayne Crist.
If you scroll back up to the 5-star QB list, a guy on that can’t miss, top QB list is none other than Dayne Crist. After reading numerous articles by level headed sports writers like Eric Hansen, I believe Brian Kelly messed up the development and management of Dayne Crist. How exactly, I can't know. But look at that 5-star list again; there aren’t many complete and total busts on that list. The likelihood that Dayne Crist was just overrated or that he himself was completely responsible for his failure seems very low.
Brian Kelly had a #2, 5-star, top 25 overall ranked QB on his roster and now he failed to land a #1, 5-star, top 20 overall ranked QB. I think the problem may not be with the players/recruits. So what is the problem? Maybe he and Molnar never gelled as well as was necessary and it affected QBs and identifying talent. Could I be completely wrong? Sure. I’m just pointing out that something is seriously amiss with the handling of the QB position, which unfortunately happens to be the most important offensive position for Brian Kelly’s offense, and which is supposedly Brian Kelly’s strength.
If Brian Kelly handled it well and had Dayne Crist playing up to his potential, it seems ND would have had a better shot at landing Gunner Kiel (for a lot of reasons, including perception that BK is good at developing QBs, a good Dayne Crist = more wins = perception that the program is going somewhere good, he likely would not have recruited Golson because the depth would have been more secure with Crist, Rees and Hendrix alone and Brian Kelly never would have turned 5 shades of purple on national television or something.)
Other Offensive Recruiting Shortcomings
In addition to completely failing to do something with the 5-star, top 25 QB already on the roster and failing to land the top 5-star QB in his backyard, Brian Kelly’s other offensive recruiting success utterly baffles me.
The highest ranked (4-star, 5.9 Rivals Rating or higher) offensive players BK has landed so far are:
‘10 Matt James #86 overall (still makes me sad his life ended the way it did)
‘11 Matthew Hegarty #70 overall
‘11 Ben Koyack #82 overall
‘12 Deontay Greenberry #69 overall
That’s it: two offensive linemen, one receiver and one tight end as the top offensive recruits in 3 years. No 5-stars. No top 50 offensive players. And that seems unlikely to change this year.
In three recruiting classes, why can’t he land even one 5-star, can’t miss, immediate offensive difference making player like Michael Floyd, Robert Woods, DeAnthony Thomas or George Farmer? I don't think it’s a lack of effort.
It’s not the school, location, weather, etc., since in one class (2008) Weis landed the #20 (Rudolph), #25 (Crist) and #27 (Floyd) overall ranked recruits to play offense, and landed two 5-star QBs in back to back years (07-08). And Brian Kelly has been able to sign multiple top-50 defensive recruits.
So why has Brian Kelly, an offensive minded coach, failed to land any elite (top-50) talent for the offensive side of the ball? I know the defense needed some attention, but that doesn’t mean you have to ignore the offense.
Brian Kelly had a chance to land the #1 QB, with all the right conditions and none of the factors that usually cost ND the commitment, and he couldn't close the deal. It seems like Gunner’s choice is a direct rejection of Brian Kelly and his program. Or something. I do believe the failure to land Gunner Kiel will set the program’s National Championship aspirations back another couple years. I do not see any QB on the roster that has that kind of potential, and any QB for 2013 will not be able to make an impact before 2014 or 2015.
If Brian Kelly ran an offense that was not QB-centric, then this wouldn't be such an issue. But look at the difference between USC v. ND in 2010 without Matt Barkley versus USC v. ND in 2011 with Matt Barkley. When you have a chance to land a Matt Barkley, Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow, Matt tafford, Vince Young or Gunner Kiel, you do it!
Furthermore, I believe Hendrix takes the starting role from Rees in 2012. Then comes the question of whether Rees transfers to play out his eligibility, which puts ND back in the position it was in 2010, with only 2 QBs on the roster. And round we go.
All of this makes me want to snap on Brian Kelly like Ralphie did on Scott Farkis.
You no good razza frazzin muckin suckin rabble friggin mugga juggin rabbo gribbin dang gum plabbin gerbin
There, I feel better. Discuss. Or don’t. I’m going back inside to rub that leg-lamp. It’s a major award.
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