Yeah there is a ton of speculation in this discussion...but I'm guessing this is the place to do it???
JC goes nowhere if he doesn't face a test. They've faced some nice teams, but losing to Sparty and Tarheel ...knowing he had some level of contribution to both loses...he's got work to do.
Talent gets you on the board, winning all the games you should, most of the games that are questionable, and multiple games you shouldn't...that gets you drafted.
So looking over the schedule through '09, not seeing a ton of opportunities...true tests...for him to secure a top pick, assuming he performs.
no accounting for Bowl appearances/performances...so if they win a bowl game in '08 and run the table in '09 (and the passing numbers stay up)...maybe. I'm guessing JC is a 4 year starter for the Irish, and I'm glad to have 'em.
I hope that he stays too. Here's where I disagree with you. Talent gets you on the board, and unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it), combines get you drafted. Even for QB's, they'll look at your combine scores many times over the game film you exhibit. Sometimes the scouts can be downright foolish. Why do you think there are so many hits and misses when it comes to QB's?
I'll give you a couple classic examples:
1. Alex Smith of SF. Played the spread offense in college, was a projected mid-round draft pick (and a controversial one at that), but on his pro-day (i.e. personal combine), he wowed the scouts throwing in shorts to receivers who weren't being covered. He did so well, he was drafted #1 overall! Just because of a pro day in which he made great throws and ran a fast 40! Now, he has been screwed by having multiple offensive coordinators over his short career, but he simply hasn't shown he's a 1st round pick.
2. JaMarcus Russell - Couldn't believe he was drafted 1st overall. But that's the Raiders for you. He had two 1st round draft picks to throw to (Brady didn't have one), who were WIDE OPEN all game long. However, everyone 'in the know' knew he couldn't read a defense (or a book? j/k) to save his life. But he also had an amazing Pro-day in shorts and a T-shirt. The scouts said: "He can throw a football 70 yards from his knees!!!" That was my all-time favorite. The next time a QB throws a pass even 20 yards from his knees during a game, I will kiss the Queen of England on every inch of her body. Now look at Russell. He may turn out to be good one day, but every game he plays is beyond painful to watch. He misses guys who are wide open, and doesn't see defenders standing seemingly right in front of his targets. But he does have a rocket arm!!!
Scouting is an inexact science, but I think too many scouts and GM's rely more on combines than on actual game film (That's why Brady dropped so far). There are a lot of QB's who didn't win a ton in college who are very good pro QB's (Denver's Jay Cutler comes to mind). It'll all be moot however if Jimmy and co start winning games on a consistent basis!