2025 College Football Playoffs

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spoonidentity

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DCDomer said:
Okay fellas, now that the dust has settled... what's the positive angle? What's the ND guaranteed super-lock scenario this weekend?

(plz give me something I watched every talking head in the country scare me to death today)
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I was thinking that there are some possible rainbow and sunshine scenarios:

1. Bama wins and BYU loses - I think ND can stay there. Committee already evaluated ND and Miami with total resume and that's favored ND. Nothing about the UM-Pitt or ND-Stanford games changes that.

2. Boise State wins MWC Championship. That boosts ND's SOS a bit more while Miami is stagnant.

3. Best scenario I can think of: If Ohio State loses to Indiana and Alabama loses to Georgia, IU would be boosted up to 1 seed. tOSU likely 3 seed (UGA 2, tOSU 3, TT 4). This would be ideal if they value tOSU's resume above one-loss but conference champion TT who has a much worse loss (ASU) than OSU.

As a result: Alabama drops out and ND moves up. Since Alabama loses, then Oklahoma's SOS drops and some shine off of their "marquee win" so ND can end up hosting Oklahoma as an 8 seed in South Bend. Next round would face Indiana at a neutral site. Rose Bowl maybe? If all goes to chalk, ND would play the winner of Oregon-Texas Tech in semi-finals. Both teams are talented but have flaws. This would work out nicely!

4. Say Alabama loses and tOSU beats Indiana. Alabama should drop out - hopefully. 3 loss at-large would be rough. If ND gets in, then Alabama would be the target of ACC's ire for 2nd time in 3 years (FSU fiasco). If Alabama drops out, the committee might not penalize Oklahoma and keep them at 8 because of regular season resume. Miami would be into the fold (given a BYU loss, of courses) and maybe to satiate the non-stop drivel the committee puts Miami at the 9 seed. On the road against Oklahoma where it's cold and the defense will pressure Carson Beck all night. Even if they win that, Miami matches up with tOSU - ranked above ND but monkey's paw situation there.

In the meantime, ND stays at the 10 seed, gets Texas A&M rematch with a team that is not playing it's strongest (loss to Texas, 31-0 deficit at half to SCar). There would be a quarterfinal matchup with #2 seed Georgia (assuming IU drops after losing to tOSU) and semi-final with IU at 3 seed or TT/UO 4/5 seeds.

I think those last two scenarios are potentially realistic and more fun to think about than the doomsday left out implications.
 
NDRock

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spoonidentity said:
I was thinking that there are some possible rainbow and sunshine scenarios:

1. Bama wins and BYU loses - I think ND can stay there. Committee already evaluated ND and Miami with total resume and that's favored ND. Nothing about the UM-Pitt or ND-Stanford games changes that.

2. Boise State wins MWC Championship. That boosts ND's SOS a bit more while Miami is stagnant.

3. Best scenario I can think of: If Ohio State loses to Indiana and Alabama loses to Georgia, IU would be boosted up to 1 seed. tOSU likely 3 seed (UGA 2, tOSU 3, TT 4). This would be ideal if they value tOSU's resume above one-loss but conference champion TT who has a much worse loss (ASU) than OSU.

As a result: Alabama drops out and ND moves up. Since Alabama loses, then Oklahoma's SOS drops and some shine off of their "marquee win" so ND can end up hosting Oklahoma as an 8 seed in South Bend. Next round would face Indiana at a neutral site. Rose Bowl maybe? If all goes to chalk, ND would play the winner of Oregon-Texas Tech in semi-finals. Both teams are talented but have flaws. This would work out nicely!

4. Say Alabama loses and tOSU beats Indiana. Alabama should drop out - hopefully. 3 loss at-large would be rough. If ND gets in, then Alabama would be the target of ACC's ire for 2nd time in 3 years (FSU fiasco). If Alabama drops out, the committee might not penalize Oklahoma and keep them at 8 because of regular season resume. Miami would be into the fold (given a BYU loss, of courses) and maybe to satiate the non-stop drivel the committee puts Miami at the 9 seed. On the road against Oklahoma where it's cold and the defense will pressure Carson Beck all night. Even if they win that, Miami matches up with tOSU - ranked above ND but monkey's paw situation there.

In the meantime, ND stays at the 10 seed, gets Texas A&M rematch with a team that is not playing it's strongest (loss to Texas, 31-0 deficit at half to SCar). There would be a quarterfinal matchup with #2 seed Georgia (assuming IU drops after losing to tOSU) and semi-final with IU at 3 seed or TT/UO 4/5 seeds.

I think those last two scenarios are potentially realistic and more fun to think about than the doomsday left out implications.
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I don’t know why people think we’re going to jump Oklahoma. Never going to happen.
 
DCDomer

DCDomer

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spoonidentity said:
I was thinking that there are some possible rainbow and sunshine scenarios:

1. Bama wins and BYU loses - I think ND can stay there. Committee already evaluated ND and Miami with total resume and that's favored ND. Nothing about the UM-Pitt or ND-Stanford games changes that.

2. Boise State wins MWC Championship. That boosts ND's SOS a bit more while Miami is stagnant.

3. Best scenario I can think of: If Ohio State loses to Indiana and Alabama loses to Georgia, IU would be boosted up to 1 seed. tOSU likely 3 seed (UGA 2, tOSU 3, TT 4). This would be ideal if they value tOSU's resume above one-loss but conference champion TT who has a much worse loss (ASU) than OSU.

As a result: Alabama drops out and ND moves up. Since Alabama loses, then Oklahoma's SOS drops and some shine off of their "marquee win" so ND can end up hosting Oklahoma as an 8 seed in South Bend. Next round would face Indiana at a neutral site. Rose Bowl maybe? If all goes to chalk, ND would play the winner of Oregon-Texas Tech in semi-finals. Both teams are talented but have flaws. This would work out nicely!

4. Say Alabama loses and tOSU beats Indiana. Alabama should drop out - hopefully. 3 loss at-large would be rough. If ND gets in, then Alabama would be the target of ACC's ire for 2nd time in 3 years (FSU fiasco). If Alabama drops out, the committee might not penalize Oklahoma and keep them at 8 because of regular season resume. Miami would be into the fold (given a BYU loss, of courses) and maybe to satiate the non-stop drivel the committee puts Miami at the 9 seed. On the road against Oklahoma where it's cold and the defense will pressure Carson Beck all night. Even if they win that, Miami matches up with tOSU - ranked above ND but monkey's paw situation there.

In the meantime, ND stays at the 10 seed, gets Texas A&M rematch with a team that is not playing it's strongest (loss to Texas, 31-0 deficit at half to SCar). There would be a quarterfinal matchup with #2 seed Georgia (assuming IU drops after losing to tOSU) and semi-final with IU at 3 seed or TT/UO 4/5 seeds.

I think those last two scenarios are potentially realistic and more fun to think about than the doomsday left out implications.
Click to expand...

I just don't think there's a world where Bama gets left out. The bump last night was solely to ensure that.

Think it has to be TTU whipping BYU and Boise State winning the MWC.

I also think we need to root hard for UVA. If Duke wins, there will be more pressure to throw Miami in to get an ACC team.
 
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burmafrd1944

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Well we can hope that there is blowback on the committee for obviously bowing to pressure and basically saying

Ignore what we said before the conferences told us to obey them
 
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spoonidentity said:
I was thinking that there are some possible rainbow and sunshine scenarios:

1. Bama wins and BYU loses - I think ND can stay there. Committee already evaluated ND and Miami with total resume and that's favored ND. Nothing about the UM-Pitt or ND-Stanford games changes that.

2. Boise State wins MWC Championship. That boosts ND's SOS a bit more while Miami is stagnant.

3. Best scenario I can think of: If Ohio State loses to Indiana and Alabama loses to Georgia, IU would be boosted up to 1 seed. tOSU likely 3 seed (UGA 2, tOSU 3, TT 4). This would be ideal if they value tOSU's resume above one-loss but conference champion TT who has a much worse loss (ASU) than OSU.

As a result: Alabama drops out and ND moves up. Since Alabama loses, then Oklahoma's SOS drops and some shine off of their "marquee win" so ND can end up hosting Oklahoma as an 8 seed in South Bend. Next round would face Indiana at a neutral site. Rose Bowl maybe? If all goes to chalk, ND would play the winner of Oregon-Texas Tech in semi-finals. Both teams are talented but have flaws. This would work out nicely!

4. Say Alabama loses and tOSU beats Indiana. Alabama should drop out - hopefully. 3 loss at-large would be rough. If ND gets in, then Alabama would be the target of ACC's ire for 2nd time in 3 years (FSU fiasco). If Alabama drops out, the committee might not penalize Oklahoma and keep them at 8 because of regular season resume. Miami would be into the fold (given a BYU loss, of courses) and maybe to satiate the non-stop drivel the committee puts Miami at the 9 seed. On the road against Oklahoma where it's cold and the defense will pressure Carson Beck all night. Even if they win that, Miami matches up with tOSU - ranked above ND but monkey's paw situation there.

In the meantime, ND stays at the 10 seed, gets Texas A&M rematch with a team that is not playing it's strongest (loss to Texas, 31-0 deficit at half to SCar). There would be a quarterfinal matchup with #2 seed Georgia (assuming IU drops after losing to tOSU) and semi-final with IU at 3 seed or TT/UO 4/5 seeds.

I think those last two scenarios are potentially realistic and more fun to think about than the doomsday left out implications.
Click to expand...
pepe-silvia-v0-dvnwtwovkkke1.jpg
 
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peadeam

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This is all futile. Trying to figure out what politicians are going to do is impossible. There are no standards to point to. But what’s going to be funny as shit is when BYU loses and drops and Alabama loses and doesn’t. I mean it’s to the point John Bruce is giving thresholds of margins of victory. If it’s that fucking subjective then just go off the fucking AP poll. There’s a whole lot less chance of fraud
 
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NotKoon

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GATTACA! said:
FanDuel odds down to -355
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The odds mean Jack shit at this point. Miami is getting absolutely hammered by everyone and their mother because nobody knows what the committee is going to do and it’s very rare for a betting public to feel like they have such a good shot at such long odds as have been out there
 
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DCDomer said:
I just don't think there's a world where Bama gets left out. The bump last night was solely to ensure that.

Think it has to be TTU whipping BYU and Boise State winning the MWC.

I also think we need to root hard for UVA. If Duke wins, there will be more pressure to throw Miami in to get an ACC team.
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We want BYU to lose by like 10. Not a blowout. A blowout will give the committee ammo to drop them behind Miami. Then all of a sudden H2H will matter again.
 
dankgesang

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NotKoon said:
The odds mean Jack shit at this point. Miami is getting absolutely hammered by everyone and their mother because nobody knows what the committee is going to do and it’s very rare for a betting public to feel like they have such a good shot at such long odds as have been out there
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Yes. I'm sure the line has moved substantially due to Hold-Me-I'm-Irish emotional hedge, if nothing else.
 
Crazy Balki

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At this point, just move the season to 13 games, get rid of conference championships and go from there.

Makes 9 conference game schedules manageable while also retaining marquee OOC matchups, and then you can simply order them based on how they performed in-season. It won't be perfect, but this crap where the ACC has a fucking FIVE WAY TIE for 2nd place is far less likely to happen.
 
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NDRock said:
I see we've gone from, "10-2 and we're a lock" to "BYU loses and we're in". I still think there's scenarios where that doesn't happen, including a Duke win. No way they leave the ACC out.
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Why wouldn't they? The ACC brought this upon themselves.

You can't drop a team for losing in the CCG in favor of a team that's IDLE, in addition you can't raise a team up that loses.

It's set up where Alabama is protected regardless, and it maximizes the chances that ND gets in, as BYU is expected to lose the Tech game.
 
NDRock

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Crazy Balki said:
It kinda is though.

BYU loses a CCG, they still have a better record than Miami, can't drop due to committees statement on CCG losses. Alabama loses, they stay at 9.
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BYU loses and Duke wins. In order to keep from shutting out an entire P4 conference, they flip Miami and Notre Dame citing the fact that they were now in the same tier and they took into account H2H and whatever shit they come up with.
 
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