2025 College Football Playoffs

NumbersGuy0520

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BUT HEAD TO HEAD!! OH MUH GAW!
It’s the dumbest shit and honestly the committee needs to take a strong stand at this point given what the Miami echo chamber has everyone now thinking.

If a MAC school goes 11-1 with a win over OSU, and OSU goes 11-1, you’re gonna tell me the MAC school should be ranked above OSU at the end of the season? Nonsense.
 

MPClinton22

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I think because the main hill the committee is still willing to die on is not punishing losers in conference championships. I hate Bama as much as the next guy, but at this point we are WAAAY more on the bubble than them.
So if they lose their game, WE are more likely to get left out? I understand they have a route to an auto-bid, but when talking about the bubble that assumes they lose. There's no way we're more on the bubble than them, unless the committee uses their slog of a win against a bad Auburn team as justification for having them jump us.
 

Bane

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Eville Irish's Rankings:
1. OSU
2. IN
3. GA
4. TT
5. OR
6. MS
7. TAM
8. OK
9. AL
10. MIA
11. BYU
12. Tulane
13. North Texas
14. Virginia
15. Vandy
16. ND
C'mon now, he would have Duke up there in the top 15, they're in a conference championship game after all!
 

BleedBlueGold

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It’s the dumbest shit and honestly the committee needs to take a strong stand at this point given what the Miami echo chamber has everyone now thinking.

If a MAC school goes 11-1 with their win over OSU, and OSU goes 11-1, you’re gonna tell me the MAC school should be ranked above OSU at the end of the season? Nonsense.

100%

The committee needs to have a backbone and not fall prisoner to the mouth breather paradox of H2H as the be-all-end-all. You could say the same about CCGs. You can't create a hill to die on, if said hill is a complete and total farce that is completely counterintuitive, illogical, and hypocritical to all other factors/metrics. I hope they move away from these two talking points. They cause the committee more harm than good.
 

Kingbish01

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So if they lose their game, WE are more likely to get left out? I understand they have a route to an auto-bid, but when talking about the bubble that assumes they lose. There's no way we're more on the bubble than them, unless the committee uses their slog of a win against a bad Auburn team as justification for having them jump us.
I think if BYU wins and Alabama loses.....yes Notre Dame is out. Hate to say it, but I think that's what will happen. It all comes down to BYU and thank God they are a big dog. Because if we had to watch a game with a coin toss outcome...that would make Saturday not real fun for me.
 

MPClinton22

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I think if BYU wins and Alabama loses.....yes Notre Dame is out. Hate to say it, but I think that's what will happen. It all comes down to BYU and thank God they are a big dog. Because if we had to watch a game with a coin toss outcome...that would make Saturday not real fun for me.
That doesn't make any sense though, that would have Alabama move UP the rankings with a loss. The committee would NEVER do that. As long as we're slotted above Alabama still this week, the only concern with them is if they win the SEC.
 

Kingbish01

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I think Bama jumps us tonight, loses to UGA and stays put. Especially if UGA plays like they did against Tech and it's a close game. Again, seeding is tough and kinda whatever....I'm more focused on what 12 teams are in...and it would really really suck to have to put TT and BYU in.
 

MPClinton22

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This whole thing is just so stupid - we need to get to a place where these huge conferences are two divisions, and the first round of the playoffs is the conference championship game. Win and you're in, lose and you're out - you couldn't beat a playoff caliber team at a neutral site, why should you get ANOTHER crack at it?
 

irish4ever

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Just so I have this straight: ND drops out because Miami ran up the score against Pitt, Alabama limped past a bad Auburn team, Oklahoma limped past a bad LSU team, BYU beat Central Florida and ND beat down Stanford? What a world. Last weekend should have moved the needle zero.
I disagree. Last weekend (along with the prior week) proved Oklahoma should NOT be in front of ND!
 

MPClinton22

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I think Bama jumps us tonight, loses to UGA and stays put. Especially if UGA plays like they did against Tech and it's a close game.
But what is the justification for that, other than doomerism? Their performance against Auburn proved they're playoff worthy? They're already on the bubble if they don't win the SEC, why should that game move them up?
 

Kingbish01

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But what is the justification for that, other than doomerism? Their performance against Auburn proved they're playoff worthy? They're already on the bubble if they don't win the SEC, why should that game move them up?
I have no idea what their thought process would be, I just am saying what I think will happen. My first domino was looking at Bama playoff odds and I understand some don't factor that in. But at -2000 to make it, that's a virtual lock. So how did that happen?? Only thing I can come up with is they aren't going to be factored into the BYU outcome....why? Because they will be ranked higher than ND.
 

MPClinton22

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I have no idea what their thought process would be, I just am saying what I think will happen.
LOL ok so you're just preparing for the worst - I can respect it. I just don't see how anything that happened this past weekend would compel the committee to do that
 

MPClinton22

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FanDuel odds. No, that's not a joke.
FanDuel knows as much as we do and is based upon where they think the public will lay their money - and with how Bama historically has played against UGA, I can understand people betting big on Bama getting the SEC auto bid.
 

Kingbish01

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LOL ok so you're just preparing for the worst - I can respect it. I just don't see how anything that happened this past weekend would compel the committee to do that
FanDuel odds. No, that's not a joke.
I don't wanna make myself look bad here....But I bet about 2500 a weekend on sports, and when football is over...it goes to about 500/night in the NBA. When I get down X or up X, I walk away for a few weeks. So yes, my main point of focus is on the odds. Because if anyone on this board thinks Bama at +950 to miss the playoffs was a solid play....I'd say they never really gambled in their life.

Anything can happen tonight, and I hope ND is ranked ahead of Bama and OU. I just wouldn't bet on it.
 

MPClinton22

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I don't wanna make myself look bad here....But I bet about 2500 a weekend on sports, and when football is over...it goes to about 500/night in the NBA. When I get down X or up X, I walk away for a few weeks. So yes, my main point of focus is on the odds. Because if anyone on this board thinks Bama at +950 to miss the playoffs was a solid play....I'd say they never really gambled in their life.

Anything can happen tonight, and I hope ND is ranked ahead of Bama and OU. I just wouldn't bet on it.
Admittedly I don't do sports betting so I'm not particularly knowledgeable on this, but I guess just after seeing the way our odds moved from one or two outcomes not going our way, I don't put much stock in that. What will those odds be if Bama loses to UGA?
 

NumbersGuy0520

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But what is the justification for that, other than doomerism? Their performance against Auburn proved they're playoff worthy? They're already on the bubble if they don't win the SEC, why should that game move them up?

If Bama stays at 9, they are in with a win over Georgia or a Texas Tech win. This is 90% likely, call it -900.

People are seeing -3000 and freaking the f out because it looks big and scary and so much more likely, even though it’s just an implied probability of 96.8% (and less when you remove juice). So like 95% odds instead of 90% if they stay put.

There is a chance that Bama jumps us and it is being baked in. It is not as definite as people are making it out to be.
 

Kingbish01

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Admittedly I don't do sports betting so I'm not particularly knowledgeable on this, but I guess just after seeing the way our odds moved from one or two outcomes not going our way, I don't put much stock in that. What will those odds be if Bama loses to UGA?
Bama losing to UGA or beating UGA doesn't appear to have any impact on ND. It really does look like it's all about BYU, again...just calling it how I see it. But what do I know...
 

dang227

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So Alabama looked like shit this past weekend and only won because coachless Auburn could not hold on to the football, and Oklahoma looked like shit for the past two weeks, and that's ok because they're in the SEC? This whole system is fucked. ESPN owns the SEC and bowls, but that isn't a conflict of interest? Why doesn't the eye test and strength of schedule apply to all teams? It's amazing how they have ruined college football and basketball. I really didn't think that could ever happen.
 

MPClinton22

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If Bama stays at 9, they are in with a win over Georgia or a Texas Tech win. This is 90% likely, call it -900.

People are seeing -3000 and freaking the f out because it looks big and scary and so much more likely, even though it’s just an implied probability of 96.8% (and less when you remove juice). So like 95% odds instead of 90% if they stay put.

There is a chance that Bama jumps us and it is being baked in. It is not as definite as people are making it out to be.
Right - Bama's high odds stem from them having arguably a 50/50 shot of 100% making it in with a win over UGA, somewhat of a chance of jumping us this week and being safe from a BYU jump, and THEN the small chance neither of those happen AND BYU wins (also very unlikely) which would keep them out.

Their odds are higher because they conceivably have one extra route to not getting left out than we do, NOT because it's a shoe-in they jump us tonight
 

WildMan1

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I think people are downplaying Ole Miss dropping
To what extent do you punish these kids though?

The FSU debacle should have shut the door on this.

You can’t kick these kids out of the playoffs bc Kiffin left.
 

KPENN

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To what extent do you punish these kids though?

The FSU debacle should have shut the door on this.

You can’t kick these kids out of the playoffs bc Kiffin left.
I’m not saying they get dropped out, but realistically I could see them being the last one in heading into Saturday. It’s not some uber talented team, and they’re missing quite a bit of their offensive staff.
 

ab2cmiller

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To what extent do you punish these kids though?

The FSU debacle should have shut the door on this.

You can’t kick these kids out of the playoffs bc Kiffin left.
I don't think he was suggesting that they miss out on the playoffs, just that their ranking should drop. Which it should.
 

TNUtoNotreDame

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To what extent do you punish these kids though?

The FSU debacle should have shut the door on this.

You can’t kick these kids out of the playoffs bc Kiffin left.
It sucks, but they are not the same team. They lost massive pieces to their success. Ole Miss belongs, but they should be the last team in.
 
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