Guys,
Below I have pasted in my analysis from a post several weeks ago when I said that we should not accept less than 9 wins in 2008. I admitted, that I could survive with 8, but no way should 6 or 7 wins be acceptable. Several of you jumped on my saying that 6 or 7 would be enough. Well, it looks like others are thinking along the lines I have with the same logic. I have pasted my post and the Blue and Gold Article.
Guys,
I was not meaning to come off as the ogre with no patience, but we are going into the Fourth year with CW and at ND we should have expectations of returning to excellence. This list are things he should be doing to demonstrate that. As for the most defining one of all, 8-9 win season I did not just pick a number. I looked at our schedule, what the opponents rosters will most likely look like, when and where we play the games and who ND's roster will be. Here is my thinking.
San Diego St. - There is no way on earth we better lose that game at home to this team. They are 4-7 this season and getting thumped by average teams. WIN
U of Mich. - I gave this one a loss, however I would not be suprised we pull of the win. They lose Hart, Henne, and Jake Long. Plus do not be suprised if Manningham leaves early for the NFL. LOSS
MSU - This game never makes sense, so I will give MSU the nod. However, they lose Caulqik who has killed us the last two seasons. LOSS
Purdue - They lose every offensive weapon. QB, both WRs, RB and TE. This game is at ND. No way we lose. We actually could have pulled it off this season. WIN
Stanford - We just watched that one. At home. We should have blown them out last week. WIN
UNC - They are improving, but there is no way that Davis should have that program ahead of ND in just two seasons vs. CW 4th season. WIN
Washington - Do we need to say much here. UW was 4-8, there recruiting has been Losingham and Ty better not outcoach us. WIN
Pitt - We have Wanny at home. Pitt is not anywhere close to ND in talent or coaching. WIN
BC - They lose there starting QB, RB and WR. Plus several OL. They were a hugely senior laden team this season and we still almost pulled it out. I will give folks a toss-up on this one even though I think we win solid. TOSS-UP
Syracuse - This should not be close. WIN
Navy - They got there one victory for the next 50 years. We will have way too much O and our D will be better. Plus I believe we can kick a FG or two. WIN
USC - Ouch. This one will hurt. USC will be loaded and playing for BCS. LOSS
December 13, 2007
Peeking Ahead
by LOU SOMOGYI
Senior Editor
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Print Version | Discuss this article |Digg This Story
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Reversals of fortune in one season are an annual ritual in college football.
Illinois was 2-10 in 2006, but this year the Illini are 9-3 and heading to the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, Kansas’ Mark Mangino took the Jayhawks from 6-6 to 11-1.
A year earlier, Wake Forest’s Jim Grobe went from 4-7 to 11-2 in the regular season.
The year prior, 2005, Penn State’s Joe Paterno went from a washed-up curmudgeon with consecutive 3-9 and 4-7 finishes to 11-1, with the lone defeat coming on the game’s last play.
Pick a year in college football, any year, and you will find dramatic turnarounds.
Why not Notre Dame in 2008?
Over the last decade the Irish have been familiar with roller-coaster swings. Just look at the six-year regular-season undulations at Notre Dame from 1998-2003: 9-2, 5-7, 9-2, 5-6, 10-2, 5-7.
Those days were thought to be over under Charlie Weis when back-to-back ledgers of 9-3 and 10-3 in 2005-06 marked the first time since 1992-93 the Irish produced a minimum of nine victories in consecutive seasons.
Can Notre Dame return to that level in 2008, or is that too much too soon after this year’s 3-9 fiasco?
Over the next nine months, there will be a plethora of inquiries about whether Weis and Co. will be able to return the program not only to Bowl Championship Series contention, but become a consistent contender for the whole enchilada. Among the questions that inevitably will be explored is “What would be considered a ‘good’ season in 2008?”
The schedule is screaming for at least an 8-win campaign because it is far more favorable. This includes four of the first five games at home, as opposed to four of the six on the road in 2007.
Six 2008 foes sported losing records this past season (see chart below), and four of them visit Notre Dame. There is no reason why the Irish should be the underdog in any of those contests. Losses in two of them – particularly at Washington on Oct. 25, for obvious reasons – would hurt the credibility of Weis’ program.
Then there is a seventh team, Navy. Should the Irish lose two straight to the Midshipmen? No, especially with Paul Johnson no longer at the helm.
Then there’s Michigan State, Purdue and Boston College, the “bubble games” Notre Dame should win three years out of four.
Purdue and Boston College both incur heavy graduation losses of premier players, the type the Irish had after the 2006 campaign, so there should be no reason to categorize Weis’ crew as the underdog in these matchups. Curtis Painter, Dorien Bryant, Dustin Keller, Selwyn Lymon, Jordan Grimes, etc., won’t be back, similar to Quinn, Samardzija, McKnight, Walker, Harris, etc. for Notre Dame in 2007. The Boilermakers have won once at Notre Dame in its last 15 tries, and Joe Tiller’s program seems to have hit a downward slope the past three years – although Purdue would be kidding itself if it thinks it could find a better coach than Tiller. Boston College loses 17 fifth-year seniors, including Matt Ryan.
Boston College and Michigan State always save their best for the Irish, but talent gap should not be an issue if you look at recruiting history. If you are to be “The Man” that turns around Notre Dame’s fortunes, these are the games that are won most of the time. The Irish can’t have it both ways. One cannot keep talking about “killer” recruiting classes and repeatedly lose to programs such as MSU, Purdue and BC that are seldom found in the top 30 or top 40 recruiting rankings, for whatever their worth.
That leaves Michigan and USC. The Wolverines also will have massive graduation losses on offense, will be under new leadership and appear to be a house divided in the process of finding a new coach. Otherwise, from a personnel standpoint, UM and USC are the two that would be considered superior to Notre Dame. Again, though, one can’t have it both ways. You can’t talk about “parity” in college football because of the way Purdue, MSU and BC have caught up with Notre Dame – and then lose by 38-0 scores to USC and Michigan, or 47-21 and 44-24 a year earlier.
One never knows how schedules shake out. In 2005, Irish opponents Michigan and Tennessee were in the preseason top 5 but finished 7-5 and 5-6, respectively. Pitt and Purdue were also mentioned in the top 20, but both finished 5-6. Suddenly, a once onerous-looking schedule turned into “Notre Dame doesn’t play anyone. The Irish have plenty of work to do in their own house, but it should not come as a surprise to post, at worst, eight victories in 2008 – not including that ever elusive bowl game.
2008 Schedule:
Date Opponent/Record Comment
Sept. 6 San Diego State (4-8) Head coach Chuck Long’s defense was 115th overall (498.17) while yielding 34.4 points per game.
Sept. 13 Michigan (8-4) Since the series renewal in 1978, UM has never beaten Notre Dame three straight.
Sept. 20 at Michigan State (7-5) Amazingly, the road team has won seven straight in this series since 2001.
Sept. 27 Purdue (7-5) Boilermakers lose practically everyone on offense in ’08 the way Irish did in ’07.
Oct. 4 Stanford (4-8) Cardinal has had six straight losing seasons while going 20-48 (.294).
Oct. 11 at North Carolina (4-8) Tar Heels needed OT to beat Duke in finale; offense 97th in scoring and 105th overall.
Oct. 25 at Washington (4-9) Tyrone Willingham put on notice by UW after three-year mark of 11-25.
Nov. 1 Pitt (5-7) Upset of WV salvaged the ’07 season, but Dave Wannstedt only 16-19 in three years.
Nov. 8 at Boston College (10-3) Rebuilding year in Chestnut Hill with departure of 16 fifth-year seniors, including QB Matt Ryan.
Nov. 15 at Navy (8-4) Georgia Tech’s hiring of Paul Johnson could be an immense setback for Mids.
Nov. 22 Syracuse (2-10) Three-year record of 7-28 (.200) puts Greg Robinson on one of the hottest seats.
Nov. 29 USC (10-2) Ensconced under Pete Carroll as one of nation’s top 5 programs.
Below I have pasted in my analysis from a post several weeks ago when I said that we should not accept less than 9 wins in 2008. I admitted, that I could survive with 8, but no way should 6 or 7 wins be acceptable. Several of you jumped on my saying that 6 or 7 would be enough. Well, it looks like others are thinking along the lines I have with the same logic. I have pasted my post and the Blue and Gold Article.
Guys,
I was not meaning to come off as the ogre with no patience, but we are going into the Fourth year with CW and at ND we should have expectations of returning to excellence. This list are things he should be doing to demonstrate that. As for the most defining one of all, 8-9 win season I did not just pick a number. I looked at our schedule, what the opponents rosters will most likely look like, when and where we play the games and who ND's roster will be. Here is my thinking.
San Diego St. - There is no way on earth we better lose that game at home to this team. They are 4-7 this season and getting thumped by average teams. WIN
U of Mich. - I gave this one a loss, however I would not be suprised we pull of the win. They lose Hart, Henne, and Jake Long. Plus do not be suprised if Manningham leaves early for the NFL. LOSS
MSU - This game never makes sense, so I will give MSU the nod. However, they lose Caulqik who has killed us the last two seasons. LOSS
Purdue - They lose every offensive weapon. QB, both WRs, RB and TE. This game is at ND. No way we lose. We actually could have pulled it off this season. WIN
Stanford - We just watched that one. At home. We should have blown them out last week. WIN
UNC - They are improving, but there is no way that Davis should have that program ahead of ND in just two seasons vs. CW 4th season. WIN
Washington - Do we need to say much here. UW was 4-8, there recruiting has been Losingham and Ty better not outcoach us. WIN
Pitt - We have Wanny at home. Pitt is not anywhere close to ND in talent or coaching. WIN
BC - They lose there starting QB, RB and WR. Plus several OL. They were a hugely senior laden team this season and we still almost pulled it out. I will give folks a toss-up on this one even though I think we win solid. TOSS-UP
Syracuse - This should not be close. WIN
Navy - They got there one victory for the next 50 years. We will have way too much O and our D will be better. Plus I believe we can kick a FG or two. WIN
USC - Ouch. This one will hurt. USC will be loaded and playing for BCS. LOSS
December 13, 2007
Peeking Ahead
by LOU SOMOGYI
Senior Editor
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Print Version | Discuss this article |Digg This Story
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reversals of fortune in one season are an annual ritual in college football.
Illinois was 2-10 in 2006, but this year the Illini are 9-3 and heading to the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, Kansas’ Mark Mangino took the Jayhawks from 6-6 to 11-1.
A year earlier, Wake Forest’s Jim Grobe went from 4-7 to 11-2 in the regular season.
The year prior, 2005, Penn State’s Joe Paterno went from a washed-up curmudgeon with consecutive 3-9 and 4-7 finishes to 11-1, with the lone defeat coming on the game’s last play.
Pick a year in college football, any year, and you will find dramatic turnarounds.
Why not Notre Dame in 2008?
Over the last decade the Irish have been familiar with roller-coaster swings. Just look at the six-year regular-season undulations at Notre Dame from 1998-2003: 9-2, 5-7, 9-2, 5-6, 10-2, 5-7.
Those days were thought to be over under Charlie Weis when back-to-back ledgers of 9-3 and 10-3 in 2005-06 marked the first time since 1992-93 the Irish produced a minimum of nine victories in consecutive seasons.
Can Notre Dame return to that level in 2008, or is that too much too soon after this year’s 3-9 fiasco?
Over the next nine months, there will be a plethora of inquiries about whether Weis and Co. will be able to return the program not only to Bowl Championship Series contention, but become a consistent contender for the whole enchilada. Among the questions that inevitably will be explored is “What would be considered a ‘good’ season in 2008?”
The schedule is screaming for at least an 8-win campaign because it is far more favorable. This includes four of the first five games at home, as opposed to four of the six on the road in 2007.
Six 2008 foes sported losing records this past season (see chart below), and four of them visit Notre Dame. There is no reason why the Irish should be the underdog in any of those contests. Losses in two of them – particularly at Washington on Oct. 25, for obvious reasons – would hurt the credibility of Weis’ program.
Then there is a seventh team, Navy. Should the Irish lose two straight to the Midshipmen? No, especially with Paul Johnson no longer at the helm.
Then there’s Michigan State, Purdue and Boston College, the “bubble games” Notre Dame should win three years out of four.
Purdue and Boston College both incur heavy graduation losses of premier players, the type the Irish had after the 2006 campaign, so there should be no reason to categorize Weis’ crew as the underdog in these matchups. Curtis Painter, Dorien Bryant, Dustin Keller, Selwyn Lymon, Jordan Grimes, etc., won’t be back, similar to Quinn, Samardzija, McKnight, Walker, Harris, etc. for Notre Dame in 2007. The Boilermakers have won once at Notre Dame in its last 15 tries, and Joe Tiller’s program seems to have hit a downward slope the past three years – although Purdue would be kidding itself if it thinks it could find a better coach than Tiller. Boston College loses 17 fifth-year seniors, including Matt Ryan.
Boston College and Michigan State always save their best for the Irish, but talent gap should not be an issue if you look at recruiting history. If you are to be “The Man” that turns around Notre Dame’s fortunes, these are the games that are won most of the time. The Irish can’t have it both ways. One cannot keep talking about “killer” recruiting classes and repeatedly lose to programs such as MSU, Purdue and BC that are seldom found in the top 30 or top 40 recruiting rankings, for whatever their worth.
That leaves Michigan and USC. The Wolverines also will have massive graduation losses on offense, will be under new leadership and appear to be a house divided in the process of finding a new coach. Otherwise, from a personnel standpoint, UM and USC are the two that would be considered superior to Notre Dame. Again, though, one can’t have it both ways. You can’t talk about “parity” in college football because of the way Purdue, MSU and BC have caught up with Notre Dame – and then lose by 38-0 scores to USC and Michigan, or 47-21 and 44-24 a year earlier.
One never knows how schedules shake out. In 2005, Irish opponents Michigan and Tennessee were in the preseason top 5 but finished 7-5 and 5-6, respectively. Pitt and Purdue were also mentioned in the top 20, but both finished 5-6. Suddenly, a once onerous-looking schedule turned into “Notre Dame doesn’t play anyone. The Irish have plenty of work to do in their own house, but it should not come as a surprise to post, at worst, eight victories in 2008 – not including that ever elusive bowl game.
2008 Schedule:
Date Opponent/Record Comment
Sept. 6 San Diego State (4-8) Head coach Chuck Long’s defense was 115th overall (498.17) while yielding 34.4 points per game.
Sept. 13 Michigan (8-4) Since the series renewal in 1978, UM has never beaten Notre Dame three straight.
Sept. 20 at Michigan State (7-5) Amazingly, the road team has won seven straight in this series since 2001.
Sept. 27 Purdue (7-5) Boilermakers lose practically everyone on offense in ’08 the way Irish did in ’07.
Oct. 4 Stanford (4-8) Cardinal has had six straight losing seasons while going 20-48 (.294).
Oct. 11 at North Carolina (4-8) Tar Heels needed OT to beat Duke in finale; offense 97th in scoring and 105th overall.
Oct. 25 at Washington (4-9) Tyrone Willingham put on notice by UW after three-year mark of 11-25.
Nov. 1 Pitt (5-7) Upset of WV salvaged the ’07 season, but Dave Wannstedt only 16-19 in three years.
Nov. 8 at Boston College (10-3) Rebuilding year in Chestnut Hill with departure of 16 fifth-year seniors, including QB Matt Ryan.
Nov. 15 at Navy (8-4) Georgia Tech’s hiring of Paul Johnson could be an immense setback for Mids.
Nov. 22 Syracuse (2-10) Three-year record of 7-28 (.200) puts Greg Robinson on one of the hottest seats.
Nov. 29 USC (10-2) Ensconced under Pete Carroll as one of nation’s top 5 programs.
