Running out of Room?

[irishunclebill]

As of today there are 43 uncommitted recruits on the Official Irish Envy Offer list. It appears that the maximum amount of scholarships that CW will be able to offer this year is 22*, of which 10 are already accounted for. That leaves 12 scholarships to be filled by this pool of 43 recruits which is likely to increase even more in the next couple of weeks. For the first time in the Charlie Weis era it appears likely that there will not be schollies available for recruits who have been offered and may have wanted to enroll at Notre Dame. For the most part this is a good thing, more similar to the Texas recruiting model, but it is also likely to be extremely difficult for the staff to keep open a slot or two just in case a long shot such as Arthur Brown decides at the last minute to turn Irish.

(*- 22 assumes that Justin Brown, Leo Ferrine, and Anthony Vernaglia will not return as fifth year seniors, and Maurice Crum and Terrail Lambert will. The actual number, depending on possible transfers, could be as low as 19, or as high as 24, if for some reason the staff did not want Crum & Lambert to return.)

Here is the reason why. Even without an increase in offers, of the 43 currently uncommitted recruits, 28 have expressed serious interest in attending Notre Dame. Serious interest as defined here is for the most part based on statements attributed to the recruits saying that ND is at least one of their Top 5 favorites, although in a few cases, such as Will Hill, the serious interest is based more on rumors. Even more telling is the fact that a significant number of these 28 recruits currently list the Irish as one of their top 2 or 3 favorites.

Now, as in the past, there will always be some in this group of 28 who will use Habernesque posturing of feigning serious attention to an Irish offer in order to attract national attention, but for the most part this group seems to have genuine solid interest in Notre Dame.



28 recruits for 12 slots, let’s see how they break down by position.

Tight Ends (2 current possibilities)

This is the easy one. It is hard to believe that Blake Ayles & Brandon Moore would still have interest in ND, and vice versa after the recent commit of Joseph Fauria. The tell tale sign for Ayles will be to see if he has now scratched ND from his list of Official Visits in the fall, but in any case there no longer seems to be slots for Ayles & Moore despite their continued interest.

Offensive Line (4 current possibilities)

CW has always stated how important the O-Line is and will not settle for 2 recruits here. 2 or 3 of the remaining slots will go to Offensive Lineman. Top current possibilities are Kenneth Page, Art Forst, and Lane Clelland, all of whom have ND as their leader or in their Top 2. The only other OL in the mix is Matt Patchan, who is the highest rated of the current offers. However ND offered Patchan late, and have a ton of competition to try to nab him. Nonetheless, Patchan continues to have nice things to say about the Irish. Definitely look for more O-Line offers to go out in the coming weeks and months.

Running Back (4 current possibilities)

ND is in the hunt for 4 Running Backs, including the top RB prospect in the country in Darrell Scott. However, it appears there is only room for one recruit. This is where the real dilemma of limited schollies comes in as all three of the other RB’s (Cyrus Gray, Carlton Thomas, and Ryan Williams) seriously considering the Irish are also tremendous prospects. If one of these three commit early, it will be awfully difficult to not leave a slot open if Scott continues to express interest in Notre Dame. The problem is what position do you shortchange to leave the open slot.

Wide Receiver (3 current possibilities)

With only John Goodman in the fold, ND would probably like to get two more WR’s from this class, but may have to settle for one. The 3 current offers that have expressed the most interest are Michael Floyd, Brice Butler, and Martavious Odoms. Floyd has long been considered to favor the Irish, but that seems to be wavering. Butler was rumored to be overwhelmed by his visit to South Bend for the B&G game last weekend, but talk of any imminent commitment for him has also died down. The Irish might have to limit themselves to Floyd at this position, if he commits, but there is no way that they would turn down a Floyd/Butler tandem. With no completely definitive prospects at this position, look for more WR offers to be handed out.

Defensive Line (6 current possibilities)

With the LB position being filled spectacularly from this class, and Sean Cwynar the only DL currently committed, this is the most critical need in the 2008 class. There are 4 currently offered prospects who have expressed the most interest to play in the interior of the DL, Brandon Newman, Hafis Williams, Marcus Forston, and Omar Hunter. Newman is receiving the full-court press from the Irish coaching staff, and despite not committing over the weekend, still seems to favor ND. Hafis Williams is also a strong possibility, although he would like to wait to make a decision. Marcus Forston is the highest rated of this group, but may not be as critical as Newman to the new ND Defensive scheme. Forston is definitely interested in ND despite all of the talk in South Florida that he is a Miami “silent verbal”, (remember all of the talk two weeks ago was that Crist was a USC “silent verbal”) and Marcus will take an Official Visit to South Bend in the fall before he commits. Omar Hunter probably falls into the “posturing” category, but you can never tell until he commits elsewhere.

ND also has 2 solid prospects for DE in Ethan Johnson, and Kapron Lewis-Moore, but both are going to be difficult to convince to leave their region for South Bend.

Look for more offers to be sent out for the DL in the next few weeks, especially if Newman does not commit shortly. I would not be surprised to see an offer for B&G game visitor, Masengo Kabongo, and yesterday’s CW recruiting trip prospect, Garrett Goebel, go out this week if CW & CB do not convince Brandon Newman to commit tomorrow.

Linebacker (4 current possibilities)

Even with the abundance of talent already committed at this position, there are still 4 other recruits with a solid interest in ND, and it would be unlikely that the staff would dissuade any of these guys from committing if they chose ND. After completing all of the dog and pony shows both Brendan Beal and Andrew Sweat still seem to be very interested in ND, and I believe that at least one of them will end up in an Irish uniform. Steve Filer is also still considered to be a very strong prospect for ND, and many people still feel that he will commit to the Irish before the end of the current school year. Etienne Sabino may be the best of the 4 LB’s left still showing strong interest in Notre Dame, and is tentatively scheduled to visit ND next month with his fellow South Florida LB, and best buddy, Jordan Futch. There seems to be a growing sentiment that Sabino & Futch will be a package deal wherever they go, and until, and if, ND offers Futch, Sabino will be a long shot. If an offer goes out to Futch in the next few weeks, their joint visit to campus in May could be quite interesting.

Defensive Backfield (5 current possibilities)

5 tremendous athletes are represented in this group, Jamoris Slaughter, Robert Blanton, Jeremy Brown, Will Hill, and Dan McCarthy. Slaughter & Blanton have been especially keen as of late on the Irish, and recruiting that tandem would add exceptional athleticism to an already very athletic group from the 2007 recruiting class. However, both of these guys are from SEC/ACC country, and that is always both a problem and a worry. Jeremy Brown is also from SEC country (Florida), but seems to have little interest right now in the shenanigans of the Cockwad crowd, and could be the first Florida recruit that CW nabs this year. Dan McCarthy seems to be torn in his decision making, both in school and position choice, and may be the odd man out if guys like Brown/Slaughter/Blanton decide to commit early to ND.

Then there is “the Thrill”. Is he or is he not interested in ND, no one seems to know for sure, but if there is any possible way that he is, you will not see the 22nd scholarship slot filled until NSD, unless Darrell Scott, or Arthur Brown, decide to attend Notre Dame.


My Best Guess on how the last 12 slots fill by position

Offensive Line- (2)
Wide Receiver- (2)
Running Back- (1)
Defensive Line- (3)
Linebacker- (2)
Defensive Back- (2)

What’s yours?

 

[pani_nasz]

IUB,

Great breakdown and analysis. I agree with your numbers but would perhaps add 1 to OL, and subtract 1 from LB. It will be interesting to see how firmly the recruits we have in the bag adhere to CW's definition of commitment, i.e, do we have any Littles or a Trattou in the mix?

 

[kjones]

IUB, you continue to astound me with your good posts. Reps to you!

 

[johnnd05]

Great post IUB - I had been hoping for analysis of this from you, and you certainly didn't disappoint.

A few remarks:

1. The thought of having to tell Brown, Ferrine, and Vernaglia that there isn't room for them to return is a pretty crappy one. They've worked hard and taken their knocks, and I imagine that one or more of them might want to return. But I suppose you gotta do what you gotta do, and with the way this class is filling up we are definitely going to need more than nineteen scholarships for it.

2. Another thing your analysis assumes is that there won't be any players who leave the team, either to transfer or for other reasons. I know that this isn't a really common occurrence at ND like it is at Florida, etc., but it does take place with some frequency. If this does indeed happen this year -- and there have been some rumors of at least one possible transfer, right? -- it would free up one more spot without having to send Crum or Lambert packing (which would be pretty much inexplicable; the only way they're not coming back is if they don't want to).

3. At LB, I could imagine us putting some real pressure on Beal, Sweat, and Filer to make up their minds soon. The difficulty is that I don't think we want to take more than five LBs total, but we definitely want to leave a spot open for Brown until he starts sending us some straightforwardly negative signals. But after what we went through last year, I don't see the staff having tons of patience for massive indecision (and apparent mind-games) on the part of Beal and Sweat. We have needs at other positions as well, and we already have three LBs on board, so I think those guys might get told "get on board or get dropped". Such an instruction would not, of course, be given to Arthur Brown unless two of Filer/Beal/Sweat had already committed and a third was right on the verge of doing so.

I'm not going to offer a position-by-position breakdown because I know full well I can't compete with you there. But let me just say that your post makes it clear that there is a flip-side to our early recruiting successes: I'm more than happy to have, e.g., Golic Jr. on the team, but it'll be hard if things fill up and we don't have a spot left for Brown or Hill (positional needs be damned). That said, I'll take this year's "problems" over last year's any day!

 

[kjones]

Oh, I guess I'd also guess we'd take one 3 more lineman if we can possibly get them. We'd have to maybe cut out a receiver I suppose.

 

[Jason Pham]

Excellent post as always IUB.

 

[knute]

My Best Guess on how the last 12 slots fill by position

Offensive Line- (2)
Wide Receiver- (2)
Running Back- (1)
Defensive Line- (3)
Linebacker- (2)
Defensive Back- (2)

What’s yours?

I basically agree with your analysis, but I would express our needs a bit differently:

OT-1
OG-1
WR-1
DT-1
DE-1
Best-7

By this, I mean that for depth I think we NEED one more at each of the listed positions and then beyond that we should take the next best players regardless of position. My strategy would be to continue to offer good players at those depth positions until they are filled and then hold the final 7 schollies for the fall when you get some of those elite players in on official visits.

I wouldn't be upset if we ended up with 6 linebackers if the final two ended up being Sabino and Brown. Likewise, I wouldn't mind getting 4 DTs or DEs in this class if they were all high quality.

 

[irishunclebill]

Great post IUB - I had been hoping for analysis of this from you, and you certainly didn't disappoint.

A few remarks:

1. The thought of having to tell Brown, Ferrine, and Vernaglia that there isn't room for them to return is a pretty crappy one. They've worked hard and taken their knocks, and I imagine that one or more of them might want to return. But I suppose you gotta do what you gotta do, and with the way this class is filling up we are definitely going to need more than nineteen scholarships for it.

2. Another thing your analysis assumes is that there won't be any players who leave the team, either to transfer or for other reasons. I know that this isn't a really common occurrence at ND like it is at Florida, etc., but it does take place with some frequency. If this does indeed happen this year -- and there have been some rumors of at least one possible transfer, right? -- it would free up one more spot without having to send Crum or Lambert packing (which would be pretty much inexplicable; the only way they're not coming back is if they don't want to).

3. At LB, I could imagine us putting some real pressure on Beal, Sweat, and Filer to make up their minds soon. The difficulty is that I don't think we want to take more than five LBs total, but we definitely want to leave a spot open for Brown until he starts sending us some straightforwardly negative signals. But after what we went through last year, I don't see the staff having tons of patience for massive indecision (and apparent mind-games) on the part of Beal and Sweat. We have needs at other positions as well, and we already have three LBs on board, so I think those guys might get told "get on board or get dropped". Such an instruction would not, of course, be given to Arthur Brown unless two of Filer/Beal/Sweat had already committed and a third was right on the verge of doing so.

I'm not going to offer a position-by-position breakdown because I know full well I can't compete with you there. But let me just say that your post makes it clear that there is a flip-side to our early recruiting successes: I'm more than happy to have, e.g., Golic Jr. on the team, but it'll be hard if things fill up and we don't have a spot left for Brown or Hill (positional needs be damned). That said, I'll take this year's "problems" over last year's any day!

I agree with you on Brown, Ferrine, and Vernaglia especially if Justin and Anthony end up positively contributing this year, and I see no way that Lambert and Crum will not be back next year. The transfer aspect is hard to gauge, but it seems pretty certain that there will be at least one, so basically you are in the range of 19-25, and my gut feeling is that the staff will take the midpoint of 22, and let the chips fall where they may. If there are 2 transfers, that would still leave slots for Brown & Vernaglia, but I think it is doubtful that all five will be back for a 5th year. Next year is going to be a much different decision than this year on the 5th year seniors, because this year's team obviously needs the veteran experience of the guys returning. Next year, all of these young, very talented guys, will have one full year under their belt, and the freshmen and sophomores of this years class are going to be the leaders of next year's team. This may lead to some difficult decisions for the coaching staff, but when you are accumulating the kind of talent that CW is getting, such decisions are going to become inevitable almost every year from this point on.

Pressure or not, I don't see Beal committing until his announced date of October 12th, and as I said yesterday, he may not have a position available for him by then at ND. Filer & Sweat will be making up their minds long before Beal & Arthur Brown. As good as Brown is IMO they will not hold a slot for him if they get Filer, and either Sweat or Beal. Don't forget that Darius Fleming is expected to play mostly OLB in CB's D scheme. If a slot is saved for anyone, I see it as for Darrell Scott. The conventional wisdom is that a lot of programs will hold a spot for Arthur Brown until NSD not only because he is a Top 5 player in this year's class, but also because his brother is expected to be the #1 RB in next year's class, and it is presumed he will join his brother wherever he ends up. If the Irish were to get Darrell Scott along with 6 very talented LB's in this year's class, the loss of the Brown boys, no matter how good they are, would not be too hard to take, especially since they are really Irish long shots anyway.

 

[seniorle]

IUB, for anyone following ND recruiting, ur post above should be required reading. Very clear and to the point and I agree with your projections.

I would like:

2 OL - Patchan and Page
2 WR - Floyd and Walker
1 RB - Darrell Scott or Carlton Thomas
3 DL - Newman, Ethan Johnson, and either Hafis Williams, Forston, or Goebel
1 CB - Blanton
1 Safety - Slaughter
2 LB - Filer and either Hale, Brown, Sweat, or Beal

If we got anything resembling my list, I think we've definitely locked up a top 5 class.

 

[johnnd05]

As will become clear, I've been thinking more about this ...

I'm not sure that I agree that 22 is really going to be our "baseline" for this year -- I think it's a bit too high. The reason I say this is that it seems to me that at some point we're going to have to be taking an average of twenty players a year -- this will leave us with five scholarships to give to fifth-year seniors each year, not counting any others that become available thanks to players leaving the team. It's important that we be able to do this, since it provides an extra backbone of "super-senior" leadership, and that's pretty much essential to any team that wants to be a championship contender. In 2007 and 2006, we took 18 and 27 (! -- I know that some of them were early enrollments, but that doesn't affect my point) scholarship players: that means that if we really did take 22 this year and didn't lose any of the above players, we'd have only 18 scholarships available for 2009. In other words, I think that aiming for 22 right out of the gate would be a bit short-sighted.

Note, though, that I'm talking about the "baseline", and saying we shouldn't "aim" for that many. What I mean by this is that I think we'll probably look to take 19-20 "bread and butter" players and then see where our chips fall with really top-notch guys who are going to announce late in the recruiting season (e.g. Brown and Hill). I think that in any given year, if you have guys like that who want to play for you, you have to take them almost no matter what your scholarship situation looks like (assuming academics are okay, and the kid has the right attitude -- and of course I'm not advocating pulling scholarships from committed players (that's the point of the "almost")!). But when it comes to guys like Beal, Sweat, Hale, etc., if they're not willing to commit in time you have to be willing to let them go in order to preserve the program's future.

Did that make any sense? If not, say so.

 

[irishunclebill]

As will become clear, I've been thinking more about this ...

I'm not sure that I agree that 22 is really going to be our "baseline" for this year -- I think it's a bit too high. The reason I say this is that it seems to me that at some point we're going to have to be taking an average of twenty players a year -- this will leave us with five scholarships to give to fifth-year seniors each year, not counting any others that become available thanks to players leaving the team. It's important that we be able to do this, since it provides an extra backbone of "super-senior" leadership, and that's pretty much essential to any team that wants to be a championship contender. In 2007 and 2006, we took 18 and 27 (! -- I know that some of them were early enrollments, but that doesn't affect my point) scholarship players: that means that if we really did take 22 this year and didn't lose any of the above players, we'd have only 18 scholarships available for 2009. In other words, I think that aiming for 22 right out of the gate would be a bit short-sighted.

Note, though, that I'm talking about the "baseline", and saying we shouldn't "aim" for that many. What I mean by this is that I think we'll probably look to take 19-20 "bread and butter" players and then see where our chips fall with really top-notch guys who are going to announce late in the recruiting season (e.g. Brown and Hill). I think that in any given year, if you have guys like that who want to play for you, you have to take them almost no matter what your scholarship situation looks like (assuming academics are okay, and the kid has the right attitude -- and of course I'm not advocating pulling scholarships from committed players (that's the point of the "almost")!). But when it comes to guys like Beal, Sweat, Hale, etc., if they're not willing to commit in time you have to be willing to let them go in order to preserve the program's future.

Did that make any sense? If not, say so.

It makes sense, and I do not disagree with your logic. I also believe that the way you have it laid out is probably the strategic recruiting plan for the future. I do think that this year does still not fall into that strategic plan though for a few reasons.

1) Because of Ty's miserable last years of recruiting the classes are too far out of balance to correct it in one year.

2) Similar to CW's first year, it appears that the staff wants to take advantage of the momentum created by the hiring of CB, and the implementation of a new defensive scheme, to maximize their recruiting efforts this year. The clearest indication of this aggressive stance is that they had at least 61 offers extended before the April 15th period where you can start making visits again. The 4/15 visiting period usually culminates in quite a few new offers being extended. This is in comparison to 65 total offers last year.

3) The talent pool this year is particularly strong in areas of critical need for the Irish, and the interest level of the recruits in those areas in the Irish also seems to be very strong. The opportunity to accumulate additional talent this year may be too strong of a lure to concern themselves with the long term strategic aspects.

4) 2009 is going to be a smaller class no matter what, because of red shirts, etc., there are actually only 16 current scholarship holders with Junior eligibility, including the 5 seniors who could come back next year. The only way to be certain that this number could be higher would be to not max out the scholarship offers this year, and that does not seem likely considering how many have already been given out, and how many offers have been extended.

5) I believe they will have to wait until 2010 to try to conform to the 20/20/20/20 program as in that year based on the current scholarship holders there would be 22 slots available, followed by 28 in 2011. It will be easier to adjust your recruiting targets when you have more scholarships available to offer than your target base, rather than less, which is the case for 2008 & 2009 recruiting classes.

In any case, if the staff intends to allow all 5 seniors with Junior year eligibility to return, and there are no transfers or other scholarship withdrawals the maximum amount of scholarships that can be offered this year would be only 19, and 19 are only available because the ND scholarship level is currently 10 below the maximum. This is very fortunate because there are only 9 scholarship holders who will definitely exhaust their eligibility this year. I would still be surprised to see less than 22 scholarships offered this year because of the recruiting strategy exhibited thus far. A couple of transfers or other withdrawals, along with the possibility that not all 5 seniors with Junior year eligibility will return would suggest that the 22 number is easily attainable. I would also not be surprised that if the staff felt that if there is a chance that the 22 number could be exceeded that you could possibly see as many as 24 new scholarships being offered.

If my data is correct, the current distribution is as follows:

Freshman Eligibility- 28
Sophomore Eligibility- 22
Junior Eligibility- 16
Senior Eligibility- 9
Total- 75

If 22 is the magic number this year, this is what I project the distribution will look like this time next year.

Freshman Eligibility- 27 (22 new recruits & 5 red shirts from the 2007 class.)
Sophomore Eligibility- 22 (Reduced by the 5 red shirts & 1 Transfer)
Junior Eligibility- 22 (Only 4 of these 22 are projected to have senior class standing)
Senior Eligibility- 14 (Reduced by 1 withdrawal & 1 5th year not returning)
Total- 85

 

[johnnd05]

Excellent response, IUB. I don't disagree with you that we may well -- indeed, if all goes as planned, probably will -- end up with 22 this year; the main point I was trying to bring out is that I have trouble seeing us doing what we did the stretch last year and extending late offers to guys like Brandon Walker and Brian Smith just because the scholarships are available. Nor, for that matter, will I be surprised if we end up telling even some "4*-type" guys that there just isn't room for them. Instead, and this doesn't contradict what you say, I see us "holding" a few spots open for really top-notch guys who are going to make late decisions and then seeing how things shake out with them: if they decide to come, that's awesome; if not, that's okay too because then we have the spots available for fifth-year seniors in '07-08 and are able to extend a few more scholarships (or retain a few more fifth-year seniors) in '08-09. So while I agree that 22 (or 21) is the probably the number the staff hopes to end up with, in a way my belief that we WILL get that many is mostly rooted in my optimism that one or two of the real superstars (guys like Arthur Brown or Will Hill, though of course the coaching staff has their own -- better! -- understanding of who's in this category) is going to choose us. If they all go elsewhere, then I think we'll end up being under that number, and that's more than okay with me.

 

[Dubose805]

Great post Bill, thanks for the breakdown. One point re: Scott, he currently wants to announce before his season to help w/ recruiting....things change but he may not require holding a spot for, either by being in the fold already or commiting elsewhere.

 

[irishunclebill]

Great post Bill, thanks for the breakdown. One point re: Scott, he currently wants to announce before his season to help w/ recruiting....things change but he may not require holding a spot for, either by being in the fold already or commiting elsewhere.

Dubose- Thanks for the update on Scott, I was not aware of that, and it's actually good news for the Irish in some ways even if he decides to go elsewhere.

 

[irishunclebill]

In celebration of Hafis Williams verbal commit, it is time to engage in rampant speculation as to who CW will hold schollies for until the last minute. With Darrell Scott apparently out of the picture for ND, the Irish did not make his Top 10 cut list, I'm going to speculate that when ND hits 19 verbals, the commits will stop, and 3 potential offers will be held in abeyance. In my mind, two of those have to be reserved for the possibility of Arthur Brown & "The Thrill".

The third one is where it gets fun. It does not seem like it will be another LB, so that would discount Filer. If Forston is still available, he would be a logical choice, but if the Irish can add Brandon Newman to Hafis Williams, I'm not sure they would hold one for Marcus. There are no other Brown/Hill/Forston Top 10 types that have expressed a serious interest in the Irish. Or is there?

I am beginning to think there is, and his name is one that has been on this board for more than a year now, but because he has been adamant about taking his time, some enthusiasm for his possible commit to ND seems to be waning. My pick for the third schollie to hold is Michael Floyd, and in my wild speculation, I think ND will hold an offer for him even if the Irish successfully recruit Brice Butler.

All other rampant speculators, please add your thoughts.

 

[irishunclebill]

Just to update Floyd's current placement on the recruiting boards.

Rivals- On the pre-eval 100, will most likely be a 4 star Top 50 minimum when they do their first ranking.

Scout- #33 national recruit with 4 stars. #5 rated WR nationally after Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Dan Buckner & D.J. Shoemate.

ESPN 150- #8 national recruit, with an 88 grade, #4 rated WR nationally after Buckner, Jones & Green.

 

[johnnd05]

What you say sounds very plausible to me, IUB. But maybe a really top-notch D-lineman (not sure if there are any on our radar who look like they'll decide late) could get that last spot? Or maybe one of those five-star defensive backs?

Also: could we "hold" those three spots for four, or even five, guys?

 

[irishunclebill]

What you say sounds very plausible to me, IUB. But maybe a really top-notch D-lineman (not sure if there are any on our radar who look like they'll decide late) could get that last spot? Or maybe one of those five-star defensive backs?

Also: could we "hold" those three spots for four, or even five, guys?

Unless Omar Hunter's interest is really genuine, Forston seems to be the only D-lineman that fits into the hold-for category, and Forston will probably decide before the end. If you concur with the theory that you are holding 3 offers for say Brown, Hill, & Floyd, you know that you will not get all three, so in reality, you are really holding them for 5-6 guys. To me, again if he still hasn't decided, Forston would definitely be one of the others, along with some combination of Slaughter/Blanton/Filer/ or possibly Ryan Williams or Carlton Thomas.

As far as the D-Backs go, Blanton & Slaughter are still both a little bit below the national radar so neither one is getting the attention of T.J. Bryant, Xavier Brewer, and Will Hill. Hopefully, Blanton & Slaughter will both be in the first Irish 19, and I also have the feeling that the rest of those guys (Filer, Ryan Williams, Carlton Thomas) will also have made their decision before crunch time.

 

[Irishknight1023]

Doesn't Floyd want to make his decision at the AAA game? if so that helps with not having to hold one for him.

 

[irishunclebill]

Doesn't Floyd want to make his decision at the AAA game? if so that helps with not having to hold one for him.

Pretty sure you are right IK1023, but the way things are going if the magic number is 19, ND may hit that long before the AAA game, so they would effectively be holding schollies from that point on, even for the guys who would like to announce at the AAA, not just the NSD potentials like Hill & Brown.

 

[son of rook]

I believe ND will not hold back any scholarships for 5th yr people unless we can't get the new recruits we want. Even then no more than two will go to 5th yr players . That being said, the 11 verbals we have now leaves us with 14 more to give to be at 25 and 85 in all classes. I believe we will have one or two transfers or quits leaving us with at least 1 or 2 more to give which we can do because we have the ability to have 7 EE because of only recruiting 18 in 2006. If the 2 walk-on receive scholarships this could use these 2 up . At any rate I believe Weis will use all his availabe scholarships to set up his team for the future 3 years National Championship runs.

 

[johnnd05]

I believe ND will not hold back any scholarships for 5th yr people unless we can't get the new recruits we want.

I completely disagree. This team is going to be looking to contend for a NC in 2009, and they're going to want at least Crum and Lambert around to do it. They will not mortgage the present to make way for the future, at least not to that extent.

I'd much rather have a proven commodity like Mo Crum Jr. in my LB core for an extra year than wait for an 18-yr-old to develop down the line -- no matter how highly-regarded the latter may be coming out of high school.

 

[son of rook]

The talent we are developing behind these 2 people will be better by then these two guys are now. It like I said, only give out 5th yrs if you can't get the people we want.

 

[rockne19]

we are picking up top talent in recruiting we will win a national title very soon!!!!!

 

[stonebreakerwasgod]

I like the optomism. You all sound so much better than 3 months ago. No more doom and gloom...it's now kick ass and take names!

 

[kjones]

Just a side note, there's a part of me that thinks a lot of the excitement around recruiting is very funny. I mean, everyone was excited about last years class last year, but now that they are in school, nobody really cares about them, and everyone expects the new people THIS year to just walk in and start and make a difference. It almost feels like if you don't make an impact your freshmen year, everyone forgets about how highly you were regarded before and moves on to the next, younger, more inexperienced person.

I'm very excited about this coming years class as well, but I can't wait to see some of the guys we recruited 2 years ago start to get up in the mix.

 

[stonebreakerwasgod]

Who the hell is Evan Sharpley??? Does that make your point?

 

[scooper]

I completely disagree. This team is going to be looking to contend for a NC in 2009, and they're going to want at least Crum and Lambert around to do it. They will not mortgage the present to make way for the future, at least not to that extent.

I'd much rather have a proven commodity like Mo Crum Jr. in my LB core for an extra year than wait for an 18-yr-old to develop down the line -- no matter how highly-regarded the latter may be coming out of high school.

Spot on. The talent behind those guys will be better, but fifth year seniors would be more physically mature, mentally ready and battle hardened for a run.

If Vernaglia steps up this year, I can see him getting a fifth. I think Crum is a lock for a fifth with Lambert being pretty close to a lock. Justin Brown is the other guy that could play his way into another shot.

All in all, I see this class being anywhere from 20-22 people, so I'll split the difference and go with 21. 22 if anybody transfers.


People who want to see a bunch of freshmen and sophmores in starting roles need a dose of reality. Give these great young classes a little time. They're probably the same people who always clamor for their respective pro teams' backup quarterbacks.

 

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Just a side note, there's a part of me that thinks a lot of the excitement around recruiting is very funny. I mean, everyone was excited about last years class last year, but now that they are in school, nobody really cares about them, and everyone expects the new people THIS year to just walk in and start and make a difference. It almost feels like if you don't make an impact your freshmen year, everyone forgets about how highly you were regarded before and moves on to the next, younger, more inexperienced person.

I'm very excited about this coming years class as well, but I can't wait to see some of the guys we recruited 2 years ago start to get up in the mix.

Bingo. The new guys are always the most popular. Face it folks, most kids don't walk off the high school field ready to contribute at a major level-even highly recruited kids. You have to develop college football players.

There are obvious exceptions on this team, of course, but that is not the norm. Show me a national championship winner that didn't have a good amount of junior and senior leadership.

 

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The talent we are developing behind these 2 people will be better by then these two guys are now. It like I said, only give out 5th yrs if you can't get the people we want.

Some guys develop and the guys on defense are playing a whole new scheme, so I don't know how you can make that statement without a crystal ball. It's a big gamble to rely on a bunch of 19 year olds.