Charlie Weis vs top 25

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solo

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This is not a slam on Weis, just wanting to correct an errant signature I saw in the forum. I think it was jboxer something or other who has a signature of:

Charlie Weis: 19-6 Bowl Record: 0-2
Record vs. Top 25: 4-5 Record vs. Top 10: 1-5

However, it should read:

Charlie Weis: 19-6 Bowl Record: 0-2
Record vs. Top 25: 1-5 Record vs. Top 10: 0-5

The poster with the above signature must have been using the rankings at the time of the game rather than final poll rankings.
 
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TexasDomer

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The poster with the above signature must have been using the rankings at the time of the game rather than final poll rankings.

Which one is correct, and why?

I can see validity to both points of view. At the time a game is played, beating the #1 team is beating the #1 team, isn't it?
 
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FleaFlicker

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The most valid is the post-season analysis. Although typically the one "at the time you played" makes your team look much better. Like us beating #3 UM last year.
 
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irish4life99

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Not sure what you're trying to say here Solo,

5-6 loses have been to teams no lower than #4 in the nation. Hard to get many top 25 wins if most ranked opponents are in the top 4 wouldn't you agree? Or maybe, I'm just confused in what you are trying to say. Wouldn't be the first time I was confused ;-P
 
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solo

Guest
Not sure what you're trying to say here Solo,

5-6 loses have been to teams no lower than #4 in the nation. Hard to get many top 25 wins if most ranked opponents are in the top 4 wouldn't you agree? Or maybe, I'm just confused in what you are trying to say. Wouldn't be the first time I was confused ;-P


I am making absolutely ZERO commentary in this post about Charlie Weis. I am merely correcting what one of our board members has in his signature. That's it, really.
 
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solo

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Which one is correct, and why?

I can see validity to both points of view. At the time a game is played, beating the #1 team is beating the #1 team, isn't it?


If a team is ranked preseason #3 and you bet them in the 1st or 2nd game of the year, and then that same team goes on to lose 4 more games that year. They weren't really the 3rd best team in the nation were they? And claiming this as a win over a top 5 opponent in my opinion is deceptive.

The most accurate rankings are always the last poll. That is the poll that we have the most data for. That is where each team truly finished the season. I see no sense in counting the ranking at the time of the game when a more accurate poll is available.
 
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FleaFlicker

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I am making absolutely ZERO commentary in this post about Charlie Weis. I am merely correcting what one of our board members has in his signature. That's it, really.

I'm not jumping down your throat or anything, but probably the best way to do that would be to send the guy a PM.
 
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solo

Guest
I'm not jumping down your throat or anything, but probably the best way to do that would be to send the guy a PM.

Well, it also has spurred another discussion as to whether "in season rankings" are valid. I have actually run a cross a couple of people online that think that it is more accurate to quote the ranking at the time of the game rather than the final season ranking.

However, thanks for the PM suggestion. I often forget that we have that feature.
 

BGIF

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... The poster with the above signature must have been using the rankings at the time of the game rather than final poll rankings.

Rankings at the time of the game are used by the ND Media Guide.

If you use the post season rankings ND has only knocked off the #1 ranked team once since rankings began.
 

LOVEMYIRISH

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This is not a slam on Weis, just wanting to correct an errant signature I saw in the forum. I think it was jboxer something or other who has a signature of:

Charlie Weis: 19-6 Bowl Record: 0-2
Record vs. Top 25: 4-5 Record vs. Top 10: 1-5

However, it should read:

Charlie Weis: 19-6 Bowl Record: 0-2
Record vs. Top 25: 1-5 Record vs. Top 10: 0-5

The poster with the above signature must have been using the rankings at the time of the game rather than final poll rankings.

Yup, I would have to agree with this. Beating UM last year when they were ranked #3 (but turned out they stunk) is not exactly beating a top team.

I would say that end of REGULAR season rankings are the best number you can use...but you can throw in post-bowl rankings and it would not bother me.
 

jboxer562

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I used it based on the time they played them..There are different point of views and I'm sticking to mine.
 

LOVEMYIRISH

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I used it based on the time they played them..There are different point of views and I'm sticking to mine.

That's like saying the earth goes around the sun is a point of view.

No way on God's green earth was UM #3 last year when we played them.
 
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solo

Guest
I used it based on the time they played them..There are different point of views and I'm sticking to mine.


OK...your new nickname is Aristotle. Aristotle thought that the Earth was the center of the Universe and that the Sun and everything else rotated around the Earth. Of course, we later learned that this was not true. Much like when we thought that Michigan was the 3rd best team in the nation and then learned that they really weren't when they went on to lose 5 games that season.

So sure, Aristotle, Charlie has knocked off a top 5 team...
 

irishlaw77

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This is perhaps overly simplistic, but it is really tough for a team to remain where they are in the rankings if you defeat them. Take the Michigan game last year. Yes, they were exposed as the season went along, but if Notre Dame had lost to them, Michigan would have at least maintained its ranking at that time. Clearly you should have a preference for later rankings when you have more games to see the overall quality of the team, but losses by top 10 teams at the time to ND often means that team will not maintain its position in the top 10 any longer. I would expect a skewed record if I looked at games where the top 10 team defeated ND, as they were able to maintain their position in the top 10 by reason of that win.
 
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Fighting_Irish9

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Which one is correct, and why?

I can see validity to both points of view. At the time a game is played, beating the #1 team is beating the #1 team, isn't it?

To me its pretty simple....

A few years ago, Alabama started the season ranked #3, they finished the year 3-8...

I don't see how anyone can claim that the first team to beat them beat a top 5 caliber team...

However, if you beat a unranked team who finishes the season in the top 10 (like ND did against Washington State a few years back) then there is no doubt you beat a top 10 caliber team as they finished in the top 10, DESPITE their loss to you
 
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Fighting_Irish9

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This is perhaps overly simplistic, but it is really tough for a team to remain where they are in the rankings if you defeat them. Take the Michigan game last year. Yes, they were exposed as the season went along, but if Notre Dame had lost to them, Michigan would have at least maintained its ranking at that time. Clearly you should have a preference for later rankings when you have more games to see the overall quality of the team, but losses by top 10 teams at the time to ND often means that team will not maintain its position in the top 10 any longer. I would expect a skewed record if I looked at games where the top 10 team defeated ND, as they were able to maintain their position in the top 10 by reason of that win.

When you beat a team and they are able to stay in or get into the top 25 or top 10....then you really beat a good team..

If you beat a team that was unable to remain in or get back into the top 25 or top 10, they weren't all that good in the first place
 

IRISHDODGER

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All this proves is that the pre-season rankings are pure opinion & should be altered to be fair to teams (like Auburn in '04) who begin the season unranked but even though they're one of the top teams in the nation, they end up w/ too much ground to make up & thus never reach the BCS championship game. Some say rankings shouldn't begin anywhere from the 3rd to 6th week of the season. Luckily, for ND, when they are underrated, the pollsters are pretty good about elevating them quickly when they start reeling off unexpected victories (proves that when ND is doing well it bodes well for all of college f'ball). 2005 was a perfect example of that & it probably also lead to overrated expectations going into 2006. We Irish faithful knew deep down that ND's defense would most likely be their Achilles heel & that they weren't quite up to NC caliber. We just didn't expect the O-line to regress as well.

I remember before the '05 season all the talk from the "experts" was that ND would be lucky to go into the USC game w/ one win & most (incl. Mark May & Lee Corso) picked them to be winless going into USC. They went on about the schedule being too tough a gauntlett to run, especially for a new coach w/ an inconsistent QB & questionable skill players. Funny how things changed when they started winning. "Oh, their schedule is cupcake...they haven't beaten anybody". Well you can't have it both ways, so ditch the preseason rankings & let the teams decide on the field where they're ranked. If memory serves (& if it doesn't I'm sure some of you nags will correct me...BTW: try Paxil), ND's victory over some of the teams they played kept that opponent from being bowl eligible (like Tennessee & Stanford). It's still mediocrity, but nontheless, it doesn't keep other teams from bragging how 3/4 of the teams they played went to a bowl in a given year.

Is it ND's fault that Michigan mailed it in w/ virtually the same talent they had the year before ('04) & the year after('06)? Is it ND's fault that Ainge regressed w/o the tutelage of a more talented OC/QB coach than Randy Sanders, even though the defense was stout for most of the season? Purdue had virtually every starter on both sides of the ball return...they were even a sexy pick as a darkhorse for a national championship b/c they didn't have OSU or Michigan on their schedule. Was it ND's fault they underachieved?

My point is that w/ the advance scheduling all you can do is choose quality programs w/ an impressive tradition/track record year in & year out & in most cases ND's schedule will be rated as one of the toughest in the nation. Ask any top caliber team if they want to play Michigan, Penn State & Michigan State back to back to back every year. More times than not, it'll be hard for any team to sweep those games. Living in SEC land, I can tell you that they all love to take credit for beating a team where they were currently ranked vs. end of season ranking. Why? My guess is the press puts a few too many SEC teams in the top 5 or picks the wrong SEC teams that will be deserving of that ranking. There's little doubt that Auburn was continuing to get more love than deserved this past season due to the guilt from the pollsters over their screwing a few yrs back.
 

nshope

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I don't agree...the "VS top 25" record has always been against the team when they were ranked. If it were after-the-fact rankings, there would only be a select few that ever could claim top 25 wins. If you watch GameDay or any other analysis show throughout the year, the "VS top 25" are the wins against the team at the time they were ranked, not afterward.
 

nshope

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In addition, I'll go on further to say that if rankings/quality wins only matter at the end of the season, why do pollsters/voters vote on them DURING the season and why do they determine the bowl match-ups?

If your ideaology is correct, quality wins only count after the season is totally complete, which is inaccurate because quality wins and rankings are calculated weekly in the polls and the BCS (after the 8th week I believe). Those rankings determine the bowls, which means that they are used to determine the quality of a team.

Obviously, rankings will always be inaccurate because they involve a HUMAN voting on them rather than teams playing it out on the field in a playoff format at the end of the year.
 
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solo

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In addition, I'll go on further to say that if rankings/quality wins only matter at the end of the season, why do pollsters/voters vote on them DURING the season and why do they determine the bowl match-ups?

If your ideaology is correct, quality wins only count after the season is totally complete, which is inaccurate because quality wins and rankings are calculated weekly in the polls and the BCS (after the 8th week I believe). Those rankings determine the bowls, which means that they are used to determine the quality of a team.

Obviously, rankings will always be inaccurate because they involve a HUMAN voting on them rather than teams playing it out on the field in a playoff format at the end of the year.


Well, when I am discussing ND football, I am NOT going to brag about ND's win over a 5 loss Michigan squad that finished the season unranked as a feather in Weis' cap. I am not going to give Charlie credit for beating a top 5 team, simply because the preseason polls were wrong. The polls get more accurate each week as we have one more data point to add to them. So the most accurate polls in my opinion are the polls after the entire season has panned out.

A win over Michigan is always big at some level. As is a win over USC. They are our rivals. Wins over other traditional powers like OK, Nebraska, Miami, FSU, etc are all big wins at some level. But to know the magnitude fo that win, we must really wait until the end of the season so that we can put it in proper perspective. I am not a Tyrone Willingham fan, but his win over Washington State was a big win. At the time, it seemed like a not so big win. But when they finished the season ranked #10, that gave me th p[erspective needed to understand how big of a game that was. I would say that Tyrone's win over an unranked Washington State team that finished season #10 was a bigger win than Weis' win over #3 Michigan that finished the season unranked. It may not have seemed that way as the games unfolded, but certainly with the season behind us we can see that. I don't give a crap about the rankings until the end of the year.

Why must people go around blowing up their teams accomplishments anyway? 4 other teams beat Michighan that year. Good thing we played them while they were still ranked huh?
 
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I think rankings in general are biased no matter how you slice them.

Pre season rankings are biased as there is very little info to go on and are usually never right except for the most dominant teams that are consistently good.

The rankings start to order themselves as the seson progresses but are biased in the fact that teams ranked high in the beginning dont typically slide that much after a poor or a few poor performances. (ND for example) Biased towards preseason rankings.

In the end of season polls they are biased based on the culmination of the previous two reasons plus they take into account meaningless bowl games which are biased to generate revenue for the sponsors.

I would not put a lot of stock into it. I would look at overall records for the coach and is he beating our rivals.
 
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solo

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I think rankings in general are biased no matter how you slice them.

Pre season rankings are biased as there is very little info to go on and are usually never right except for the most dominant teams that are consistently good.

The rankings start to order themselves as the seson progresses but are biased in the fact that teams ranked high in the beginning dont typically slide that much after a poor or a few poor performances. (ND for example) Biased towards preseason rankings.

In the end of season polls they are biased based on the culmination of the previous two reasons plus they take into account meaningless bowl games which are biased to generate revenue for the sponsors.

I would not put a lot of stock into it. I would look at overall records for the coach and is he beating our rivals.

I would put more stock into wins over teams that finished the season in the top 10. Outside the top 10, it can get hairy to differentiate among teams. But I would challenge you to go back for the last decade and name me one bad team that finished the season in the AP top 10. Michigan might be good like this year or mediocre like last year. USC might be good like this year or bad like during the Holtz era. You can't count on your rivals as being a good measuring stick. But year in and year out, the final AP top 10 consists of 10 good teams. So when evaluating how a coach is doing I would look at:

1. Overall record
2. Record versus final top 10
3. Bowl record
4. Record versus rivals

And of course, at ND, you must factor in NC's. If Weis fails to in a title in the next 10 years, I would consider him a disappointement at some level, even if he finishes in the top 5 every year.
 
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nshope

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I think that my whole point about quality wins during the season versus the top 25 is about the analysis that goes on during the process of the season. If I had to wait to the end of the season to talk about ND's quality wins, what would be the point? College football is a week-to-week based roller-coaster.

I talk about the wins that matter when they matter, but I also reflect on them after the season as being truly GREAT wins if the team we beat finished with a great record. However, I will NEVER discount a win over a ranked team during or after the season is over because on that given day, we beat a RANKED team that was ranked at that time for a good reason (because they had a quality win-loss record).

As for how the college football writers view it, I believe they look at the wins when the teams played and not after the season is over as you have discussed.
 
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my answer to all this is:

Obviously ND isnt where they need to be if were trying to slice up stats about wins vs top 25 teams.

If ND won the 2 BCS bowls they were in, this shit doesnt get dissected. All I know is that in '89 after the Fiesta Bowl I didnt hear anybody talk about wins vs the top 25 for obvious reasons - there was nothing to try and justify.
 
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FleaFlicker

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Face- it, Weis hasn't done what people thought that he would do...

I completely disagree. Last year, he did much more than people thought he would do. That is great and bad at the same time.

Great for last season, but then you get expectations that this year we were going to win a NC, because we were returning virtually everybody. Remember, our team lacked depth and a decent defense both last year and this year. Yet we still got to two BCS bowls.

I'm not sure how long you have been around, but if... right after Weis got hired, you were to tell people that we will most likely go to two BCS bowl games in a row, people would have laughed at you. No one expected us to do that last year, we started the season unranked...
 
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FleaFlicker

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I think that my whole point about quality wins during the season versus the top 25 is about the analysis that goes on during the process of the season. If I had to wait to the end of the season to talk about ND's quality wins, what would be the point? College football is a week-to-week based roller-coaster.

I talk about the wins that matter when they matter, but I also reflect on them after the season as being truly GREAT wins if the team we beat finished with a great record. However, I will NEVER discount a win over a ranked team during or after the season is over because on that given day, we beat a RANKED team that was ranked at that time for a good reason (because they had a quality win-loss record).

As for how the college football writers view it, I believe they look at the wins when the teams played and not after the season is over as you have discussed.

In terms of the writers, it all depends on when they write the article. Basically, they give you credit for whatever the team is ranked when they are writing the article. After ND beat #3 UM, people were saying that ND beat the #3 team. At the end of the year, writers didn't even mention it.

Regardless, it is more valid to take the ranking after the season is over.

If I ranked Temple a pre-season #1 team, and then blasted them for 60 point in the opener, I did not beat the No. 1 team in the country that year. At the time, I did. For the year? I didn't. The only one that can say they did that this year was Auburn, and I guess you'd have an argument for Florida.
 
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