Rankings by Top Wins

[RDU Irish]

Nice overview. I love the simplicity and how it seems to give a decent measurement of a team's ceiling.I don't like the SEC bias but predictable given they are skewed in the AP and play themselves to pump up "quality" wins. 9 teams from that conference are in the top 35 as you define it.

Next iteration would have a simple loss adjustment IMO. Obviously more losses would add up fast to hurt a ranking.

Pitt would actually score a 80 since they beat us and Duke ranking them just ahead of A&M. TAMU hangs their hat on beating Duke and Vandy? Yeah, definite SEC bias holding up the value of their wins for sure.

 

[gkIrish]

Nice overview. I love the simplicity and how it seems to give a decent measurement of a team's ceiling.I don't like the SEC bias but predictable given they are skewed in the AP and play themselves to pump up "quality" wins. 9 teams from that conference are in the top 35 as you define it.

Next iteration would have a simple loss adjustment IMO. Obviously more losses would add up fast to hurt a ranking.

Pitt would actually score a 80 since they beat us and Duke ranking them just ahead of A&M. TAMU hangs their hat on beating Duke and Vandy? Yeah, definite SEC bias holding up the value of their wins for sure.

I'll add Pitt. Do you have a suggestion about loss adjustment? I was thinking maybe a loss to one of the top 35 would add 5 points to your score while any other loss would add 10.

 

[DaLastFarleyite]

I think the discrepancy between this methodology and our actual final ranking speaks to our inconsistency, a problem that many of us have observed all season. We can beat good teams but for whatever reason we can't always handle the "sure thing" games (Pitt).

I wouldn't categorize Pitt as a sure thing........they end up as #19 in this ranking.....

 

[gkIrish]

If anyone is interested, I'm doing this again this season and will hopefully be updating every week or so. I didn't look at any teams outside of the current top 25 this year yet. The "worst" possible score is a 102. Here they are: ND is not doing so hot.

Miss. St. (54)
FSU (61)
Auburn (61)
Oregon (68)
LSU
Ole Miss (71)
Arizona (73)
Baylor (78)
West Virginia
UCLA
Michigan St. (85)
TCU (86)
Utah
Kansas St. (87)
Georgia (87)
Alabama (88)
Oklahoma
Arizona St. (90)
Notre Dame (96)
Clemson
Ohio St. (102)
Nebraska
East Carolina
Marshall
Duke

 

[gkIrish]

So I tried taking into account losses. Basically added the rankings of the teams lost to, to the total score. Any loss to a team that didn't receive AP votes counted as 35. See OP for methodology. Considering the committee isn't supposed to take into account margin of victory or loss, I think this ranking is useful. Highlights:

A) Oregon has the most impressive resume by far, even considering FSU is undefeated. TCU has a much better resume than Miss. St.
B) UCLA, Texas A&M, and Clemson may be better than we think. No bad losses.
C) Wisconsin, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Missouri are overrated
D) USC and Notre Dame have basically identical resumes. Yet USC is perceived to be much better than they are.

Oregon (56)
TCU (72)
Alabama (76)
FSU (82)
Miss. St. (82)
UCLA (86)
Baylor (95)
Auburn (97)
Michigan St. (101)
Marshall (105---this is the outlier but we all know they aren't that good)
Arizona (108)
Ole Miss (110)
Ohio St. (111)
Kansas St. (114)
LSU (114)
Arizona St. (116)
Texas A&M (119)
Utah (121)
Oklahoma (125)
Clemson (126)
Nebraska (127)
Georgia (132)
Colorado St.
Boise St. (135)
West Virginia (141)
Missouri (148)
Minnesota (152)
USC (153)
Notre Dame (154)
Georgia Tech (155)
Duke (155)
Wisconsin (156)
Miami (163)
Louisville (166)

 

[philipm31]

Does beating ND actually help LOU in your system?

 

[gkIrish]

Does beating ND actually help LOU in your system?

It would help them slightly unless ND stopped receiving any AP votes at all. We are currently #26 in the AP so I'm assuming we would still get some votes.