BCS Watch for November 19

[Irish Envy]

You know the drill...

1. USC defeated Fresno State 50-42
2. Texas - BYE
3. Miami lost to Georgia Tech 14-10
4. Penn State defeated Michigan State 31-22
5. LSU defeated Mississippi 40-7
6. Virginia Tech defeated Virginia 52-14
7. Ohio State defated Michigan 25-21
8. Alabama lost to Auburn 28-18
9. Notre Dame defeated Syracuse 34-10
10. Oregon defeated Oregon State 56-14
11. UCLA - BYE
12. West Virginia - BYE
13. Auburn defeated Alabama 28-18
14. TCU - Season Done 10-1
15. Michigan lost to Ohio State 25-21
16. Georgia defeated Kentucky 45-13
17. Fresno State lost to USC 50-42
18. Louisville - BYE
19. Texas Tech defeated Oklahoma 23-21
20. Wisconsin - BYE
21. Minnesota lost to Iowa 52-28
22. Florida - BYE
23. South Carolina lost to Clemson 13-9
24. Boston College defeated Maryland 31-16
25. Oklahoma lost to Texas Tech 23-21

TOP 25 BCS RANKINGS LEGEND

• Green Denotes Notre Dame
• Blue Denotes Top 25 Head-to-Head, Win
• Red Denotes Top 25 Loss
• Bold Denotes Season Complete

 

[Irish Envy]

One Team in the Top 25 has completed their season, TCU, at 10-1. Additionally, we're already guaranteed that 4 teams in the Top 25 of the BCS will lose due to head-to-head matchups.

Notre Dame could benefit HUGE with wins by Michigan over Ohio State, Auburn over Alabama, and Michigan State over Penn State. This would likely drive Notre Dame into the Top 6 and guarantee a Fiesta Bowl bid, although it is already rumored they are a lock.

 

[bigdon]

One Team in the Top 25 has completed their season, TCU, at 10-1. Additionally, we're already guaranteed that 4 teams in the Top 25 of the BCS will lose due to head-to-head matchups.

Notre Dame could benefit HUGE with wins by Michigan over Ohio State, Auburn over Alabama, and Michigan State over Penn State. This would likely drive Notre Dame into the Top 6 and guarantee a Fiesta Bowl bid, although it is already rumored they are a lock.

Auburn might take Alabama but I don't think Mich can beat OS and I surely don't think MSU will beat PSU.

If USC plays Texas then Fiesta gets the first at large pick and it will surely be ND.

Having made all these magnanimous pronouncements I am not going to bet one dime it will play out that way

 

[nshope]

In my humble opinion, I think that Michigan has a very good chance at beating OSU at the big house and I think Auburn can beat Alabama. I'd like to think Fresno St would play SC tough, but that is a big hope. If the MSU that played ND shows up against PSU, there is another loss, but highly doubt considering their downturn.

 

[jiggafini19]

Auburn might take Alabama but I don't think Mich can beat OS and I surely don't think MSU will beat PSU.

If USC plays Texas then Fiesta gets the first at large pick and it will surely be ND.

Having made all these magnanimous pronouncements I am not going to bet one dime it will play out that way

I must agree with the Big D.

scUM has a shot, but I like the way Ohio State matches up with their D against the scUM O. But it will be a battle.

MSU scares me against PSU. They might be able to come together and salvage what's left of their year. I like the way this PSU team is coached and the way the kill people on defense. They'll be ready.

If scUM wins and MSU wins, scUM goes to the BCS. Shoot me.

 

[Irish Envy]

I think if Michigan goes to the BCS, it will only strengthen our case to be there. There are still a lot of rumblings about Notre Dame being ranked where they are.

I want everything to be quieted on the field and we need our opponents to start winning some games to help us out. I don't want to be in the Fiesta just because we're Notre Dame. I want to be the best team available when the committee selects.

 

[Vince Young]

Don't worry... if we get to the Fiesta Bowl amid cries of "a 2-loss team doesn't belong in the BCS!", that just gives C-Dub an excuse to pull out the greens again. Hey, it worked in the Sugar Bowl against Florida...

 

[iloveirish_12]

I think Mich. State can beat Penn State. And Michigan will play Ohio State tuff. Just look at last year, Ohio State sucked and beat the crap out of Michigan.

 

[jiggafini19]

Being the best team available when the Fiesta selects will be tough with two losses.

Whatsmore, it doesn't matter. Money and tickets sold run this thing. On the football side of it, they're getting a good team. Two losses by a total of six points. What the hell, right?

The schedule is pretty much trashed. With two losses, the biggest win is to 3 loss scUM who could have a fourth in 24 hours. ND's opponents are a wash already. Beat Cuse, beat Stanford and have an extra month of practice for a big game.

 

[bigdon]

Being the best team available when the Fiesta selects will be tough with two losses.

Whatsmore, it doesn't matter. Money and tickets sold run this thing. On the football side of it, they're getting a good team. Two losses by a total of six points. What the hell, right?

The schedule is pretty much trashed. With two losses, the biggest win is to 3 loss scUM who could have a fourth in 24 hours. ND's opponents are a wash already. Beat Cuse, beat Stanford and have an extra month of practice for a big game.

This year ND is the biggest thing in college football. You can bet the farm that Fiesta will pick them if they get the chance. It is my opinion that every other bowl would pick them if the BCS didn't mandate otherwise. Nobody can command the advertising bucks that ND can provide not to mention a guaranteed sellout.

 

[brucejcarr]

I want to play O$U in a bowl game this year. All of the O$U fans are complaining that they should be ranked ahead of us this year. Fellas, in my opinion there is only one way to settle this......Playing O$U in a bowl game.

 

[jiggafini19]

I want to play O$U in a bowl game this year. All of the O$U fans are complaining that they should be ranked ahead of us this year. Fellas, in my opinion there is only one way to settle this......Playing O$U in a bowl game.

They have to beat scUM first.

 

[Irish Envy]

Looks like Minnesota's rise into the Top 25 was shortlived. They're being routed by Iowa.

 

[Irish Envy]

Ohio State 12, Michigan 10 in the 3rd. Solid game.

Va Tech all over Virginia.

Georgia all over Kentucky.

Texas Tech and Oklahoma in a slobberknocker, 17-14 in the 4th.

 

[Irish Envy]

Touchdown Michigan. Michigan moves in front of OSU.

*gulp* Go Michigan *gulp*

 

[Irish Envy]

Wow, awesome finish in the Texas Tech and Oklahoma game. Tech pulls off a game winner with just a couple seconds left!

 

[Irish Envy]

Auburn up on Bama early, 7-0. Go Auburn!

Michigan adds 3 more, up 21-12 on Ohio State.

 

[Irish Envy]

Auburn up 14-0 on Bama. Nice!

 

[Irish Envy]

Auburn is picking apart Bama. Looking at potential BCS opponents, I'd want NO part of Auburn.

 

[BGIF]

We didn't help ourselves today. Got the win but didn't make the statement VT did over UVA or Auburn is against Bama. We're not moving up, will lose ground to VT and could get overtaken by one or two teams.

 

[Irish Envy]

We didn't help ourselves today. Got the win but didn't make the statement VT did over UVA or Auburn is against Bama. We're not moving up, will lose ground to VT and could get overtaken by one or two teams.

How do you figure that? Who do you see overtaking us?

 

[jiggafini19]

Va Tech got completely embarrassed, at home, against Miami. They might have needed to score 100 against UVA.

I expected Auburn to win this game. They are a good football team. A couple of breaks go their way, they beat LSU.

As long as Notre Dame wins, the green will favor Blue and Gold. It's all about the cash boys and girls. 9-2, they're in. And it doesn't have to be pretty.

Tostitos, make that check out to The University of Notre Dame, not Notre Dame University.

 

[BGIF]

Thank you, Miami!

 

[Domer95]

We didn't help ourselves today. Got the win but didn't make the statement VT did over UVA or Auburn is against Bama. We're not moving up, will lose ground to VT and could get overtaken by one or two teams.

HUH???? 34-3 until garbage time???? Were you watching the same game???

Props to "Da U" for wanting the game less than GaTech. If I was GaTech's Special Team's coach, I'd walk back to ATL. OH YEAH, they're our opener next year, AT ATL....

 

[BGIF]

How do you figure that? Who do you see overtaking us?

ND's Strength has been Harris and Coaches Poll. OSU, ORE, and AUB could all pass ND this week. OSU and ORE both rolled. ND didn't.

Don't underestimate Conference Block Voting. We're talking revenue sharing time. "Why should some non-conference team be ranked ahead of one of our own. They don't play a tough conference schedule, like we do?" Wouldn't surprise me at all.

And yes I know Miami lost as well as Alabama but my comment was others may pass us. OSU deserves it, whether you hate them or not.

If ND loses a slot or two in Human Polls, ND drops in BCS ratings. Will still be in Top 12 but should be passed by one, Oregon,or more and with Bama and MIA losses, 1 or more may drop below ND. Just keep revenue sharing in mind.

Harris Poll had:
7 ND Now 8-2
8 AL now 9-2 - WILL DROP (at the time I posted they were still playing)
9 OSU now 9-2 Tough losses to #2 Texas and the new #4 PSU; Beat UM and MSU who beat ND.
10 ORE now 10-1 Got waxed by USC but only 1 loss.
11 UCLA idle
12 AUB now 9-2 Good wins over UGA and Bama, losses to next week's #3, LSU OT, and next week's #24 or #25, GT, which just knocked off Miami.
13 UGA now 8-2 same as ND. NO good wins in my opinion BUT they're the darlin's of the SEC - in the Championship Game.

COACHES POLL (Above comments apply)
7. Notre Dame now 8-2 with last week's points 1,165
8. Alabama now 9-2 1,088
9. Ohio State 9-2 1,068
10. Oregon 10-1 1,001
11. UCLA 9-1 890 14
12. Auburn 9-2 872
13. West Virginia 8-1 842
14. Georgia 8-2 763

BCS (last week
7. Ohio State 9 .7094 9 .6890 6 .790 .7295 8
8. Alabama 8 .7260 8 .7019 9 .640 .6893 3
9. Notre Dame 6 .7699 7 .7516 13 .520 .6805 11
10. Oregon 10 .6251 10 .6458 7 .770 .6803 10
11. UCLA 12 .5483 11 .5742 12 .530 .5508 15
12. West Virginia 14 .4927 13 .5432 10 .610 .5487 14
13. Auburn 11 .6000 12 .5626 17t .300 .4875 20

 

[PantsB]

ND's Strength has been Harris and Coaches Poll. OSU, ORE, and AUB could all pass ND this week. OSU and ORE both rolled. ND didn't.

??
Syr 10 (with a garbage td) ND 34
OSU 25 Mich 21 (in a game that could have gone either way)
Oregon St 14 Oregon 56

And you think ND is the team that didn't roll? Oregon had a gimme game, so did ND. tOSU was the best win, but they didn't roll by any means.

Don't underestimate Conference Block Voting. We're talking revenue sharing time. "Why should some non-conference team be ranked ahead of one of our own. They don't play a tough conference schedule, like we do?" Wouldn't surprise me at all.

Hasn't happened yet, why would suddenly happen at the end of the year?


If ND beats Stanford, its got a BCS bowl. There aren't enough teams to pass them. Worst case this week is they get passed by two teams going up and one going down. That'll still put them well within the top 12. Auburn isn't going to pass the #7 team from #12 by beating #8. Oregon and tOSU in my opinion are right there with ND in terms of quality, but with Miami losing, I don't think the Irish will lose any spots, let alone enough to kick them out of the top 12 after a win.

The Irish's computer ranking has been getting much better too. They're currently #13 and the #5, #9, and #11 teams lost. The #12 team (UCLA) was idle and is staring at a matchup with USC soon.

 

[Irish Envy]

Six of the Top 25 in the BCS rankings lost today. That's also doubly sad when 6 teams had byes this weak, so 6 of the 19 Top 25 ranked squads lost. The best part, for Notre Dame, is that two teams ranked ahead of them lost.

That's a biggie. Another Irish win should keep Notre Dame steady if not leaping past Alabama and possibly Miami depending on how the polls come out.

 

[BGIF]

HUH???? 34-3 until garbage time???? Were you watching the same game???

I'm not sure which game you were watching. I was watch the #6 team in the nation, a 35 point favorite, look like a Ty Willingham coached ND team in the first half. I guess you missed the missed FG, blocked FG, dropped passes, misthrown passes, porous OLine, inability to adjust to a blitz with an empty backfield, fortuitous roll out of bounds of the Walker fumble, 0 for 7 on 3rd down conversions in the first half, 3.7 yds/rushing attempt, Quinn's 7.3 yds/attempt was the 2nd lowest of the season, his % Complete was 3rd worst, his QB Efficiency Rating 2nd lowest of the season, passing yds was 4th lowest of the season.

Thank goodness for Leo Ferrine.

BTW, Pollsters don't deduct the last 7 minutes of the game results because it's garbage time. They don't watch the whole game (thank goodness this week) but the count the entire score. Ask JOEPA, a few years ago he emptied the bench and the opponent put up to late scores and PSU dropped several slots in the Poll with a solid win. PSU didn't play near as sloppy as ND did today.

Fortunately the voters will only watch the highlights and will hear what I heard watching the highlights: "Quinn first 3,000 yd passer in ND History", "Quinn to Samardzija for a touchdown, how many times have we made that call this season?", "Samardzija and Stovall are the best receiving duo in ND history", "Samardzija and Stovall are the only pair of receivers on a team this season to each have 10 TDs", "Walker sets an ND rushing record with 6, 100 yd games'.

True statements all and representative of the season's efforts but not representative of the last game's effort. They won't see the inconsistency anyone without homer glasses saw, nor the inability to dominate Sagarin's 117th ranked team, but perhaps if they read the game stats they'll be impressed with ND's 35% 3rd down conversion rate, or ND's 2-5 success rate in the red zone.

It was a "W" but it was far from impressive. Ty's gone. Inconsistency insn't cherished anymore. One loss and other two loss teams have been jawing at trailing ND in the polls. The Syracuse game gave some of them an opportunity close the gap and move ahead.

 

[BGIF]

And you think ND is the team that didn't roll? Oregon had a gimme game, so did ND. tOSU was the best win, but they didn't roll by any means.

ND was a 5 TD favorite. The game was up for grab's until Ferrine's INT TD of a what should have been a completion. You are correct and I am wrong on OSU. The game could have gone either way. It was the best win and that's what the pollsters and computers will notice.

BGIF wrote: "Don't underestimate Conference Block Voting. We're talking revenue sharing time. "Why should some non-conference team be ranked ahead of one of our own. They don't play a tough conference schedule, like we do?" Wouldn't surprise me at all."


Pants: Hasn't happened yet, why would suddenly happen at the end of the year?

CAL was riding high but slide on a win when the the Big 12 voters fudged their ballots at the end of the year, did they? Remember only the Coaches Poll FINAL vote is public. It may not happen but this week and next week are the best times to make it so.

If ND beats Stanford, its got a BCS bowl. There aren't enough teams to pass them. Worst case this week is they get passed by two teams going up and one going down. That'll still put them well within the top 12. Auburn isn't going to pass the #7 team from #12 by beating #8. Oregon and tOSU in my opinion are right there with ND in terms of quality, but with Miami losing, I don't think the Irish will lose any spots, let alone enough to kick them out of the top 12 after a win.

The title of the thread is "BCS Watch for November 19". The BCS is a weekly rating and teams go up or down relatively each week. Nowhere did I say nor infer that ND wouldn't make the Top 12, did I? I could, "OSU, ORE, and AUB could all pass ND this week." The operative word was "could". I didn't even say they would pass ND, did I?

The Irish's computer ranking has been getting much better too.

Yes, it has due to losses by teams above, those that had no losses or only one loss.I've commented on that prior to the polls and computer ranking being released each of the past few weeks. Check the previous threads.

BTW, how far do you expect ND to jump up in the computer polls this week with a pair of wins by Navy and PU, a come from behind win by USC, PITT being idle, and LOSSES by UM, MSU, BYU, STAN, UW, TENN, and SYR?

ND's opponents were 3 and 7 for the week.

How many of them will have losing records for the season?

How many of them are bowl eligible?

And how far much do expect ND to move up in the computers next week, even if PITT does beat WVU?

 

[jiggafini19]

I'm not sure what the hell everyone is so worried about.

A win in Palo Alto equals Fiesta Bowl. this is about money. It isn't about how much you beat Syracuse by or what your opponents have done. If they go 9-2, they're going to Arizona on New Year's Day.

Oregon and Ohio State aren't going to fill that stadium. Tostitos knows this.

The power of the potato chip compells thee.