Will History Prevail?

[Couv Domer]

As the end of the school term nears and our eyes begin to blur from reading so many recruiting posts, I decided to venture down a different path and pen a post with some interesting historicity...

Since the Associated Press released it's initial football poll in 1936, they've crowned 75 National Champions. What I find impressive, if not somewhat astounding, is that 50 of those 75 champion trophies have been won by only 10 teams! Who are these football giants? Well, most of you can probably name at least half of them, but here you go:

Notre Dame -8, Alabama -7, Oklahoma -7, USC -5, Miami -5, Ohio State -4, Nebraska -4, Minnesota -4, Florida -3, and Texas -3.

Your're probably surprised by Minnesota, however, like ND, they were a powerhouse in the 1940's and early 1960's.

So, for all the debate about the geographical shift of the football elite, not too much has changed...with the exception of one inarguable example: Hello Florida.

Since 1983, the Florida powers (Miami, Florida and Florida State) have accounted for 10 AP National Champs, or 10 out of the last 28 years. Any way you slice it, that's a pretty remarkable feat.

If you massage the data from another angle, the elite teams don't look that much different:

The AP has released 1021 weekly polls (pre-season, regular, and post) since its inception. The teams with the most weekly appearences all-time include: Ohio State -785, Michigan -761, Notre Dame -712, Oklahoma -704, USC -696, Texas -671, Nebraska -670, Alabama -661, Penn State -583, and Tennessee -564.

While this information provides some historical insight, it probably doesn't seem relevent to some of you; particularly if you have only been alive since ND's last title (1988).

So, to bring more relevence to the topic, let's take a look at what's happened since the inception of the BCS rankings:
Since the BCS came into existence in 1998, there have been 101 weekly polls. Here are the teams with the highest number of weekly appearences: Texas -86, Florida -84, Ohio State -76, Oklahoma -76, Virginia Tech -73, USC -65, LSU -65, Florida State -63, Michigan -62, and Oregon -61. Norte Dame is ranked 21st with 39 weekly appearences.

Florida and LSU have each won 2 titles, and the SEC has won 8 out of 13.

What I believe frustrates most ND hard core fans (like myself) is our history since the BCS came to be (or perhaps a few years earlier). For older fans (again like myself) that have witnessed ND slip from an elite power to our present position, part of our frustation stems from the fact that we've been to the top of the mountain, and somehow, we've ended up back near base camp. For you younger fans, perhaps your biggest frustration is that you've heard all the hype (from Dad or Grandpa, or an over zealous sportscaster) but have yet to witness anything other than moderate success.

But I believe in history; particularly when it comes to blue chip progams like ND. Not unlike the stock market, all blue chips have a lull now and then - literally all the elite teams mentioned above have experienced a decade or two where they slipped out of the national spotlight, but then rose out of the ashes back to national prominance.
I may be an optimist, but I truly believe the Coach Kelly and his staff have what it takes to get ND back to the top of the mountain. Like Rome, it can't happen overnight, but I'm guessing it will happen sooner than later. Go Irish!

 

[Mr. McGibblets]

"My dad always said, 'Having dreams is what makes life tolerable.' "

The Ebbs and Flows theory is what keeps alive my hopes with regards to the Irish returning to the top. Nice stats and nice post.

 

[Riddickulous]

This kind of slump has happened multiple times in ND's history.

After Rockne's death in 1931, we had a ten year stretch of mediocre to average football teams, with little success under Hunk Anderson and moderate success under Elmer Layden. Then we hired Frank Leahy.

Then, following Leahy's retirement in 1953, we again suffered under a terrible stretch with Terry Brennan, Joe Kuharich ("Yikes" properly describes his tenure here), and one year under Hugh Devore. Then we hired Ara Parseghian.

Following Parseghian's retirement, we hired Dan Devine, who was a good coach but not at the level Ara was. We won a title, but went 8-4/9-3 pretty much every season under Devine. Then, of course, we hired Gerry Faust, who was awful. Finally, in 1986, we hired Lou Holtz.

Holtz's teams began to decline after 1993, beginning with the disastrous 1994 season. After his retirement, we've fallen into another slump.

 

[ACamp1900]

At some point ND will get the right coach and win big again... maybe that's Kelly... maybe it's five coaches from now... time will tell.

 

[IrishInColumbus]

I disagree with the notion that Rome can't be built in a day.

Oklahoma:

1996: 3-8
1997: 4-8
1998: 5-6
1999: 7-5
2000: 13-0

Southern Cal:

1997: 6-5
1998: 8-5
1999: 6-6
2000: 5-7
2001: 6-6
2002: 11-2
2003: 12-1
2004: 13-0

Ohio State:

1999: 6-6
2000: 8-4
2001: 7-5
2002: 14-0

I could go on and on but I don't feel like listing it all. But guys like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Jim Tressel...Lou Holtz, Ara Parseghian, etc. took programs drenched in mediocrity and turned them around overnight. It rarely showed the first season, but within two or three years it was evident. I expect the same from Kelly and I am more sure of it with him at the helm than Weis or Willingham.

Programs that have the commitment, wherewithal, and coaching ALWAYS rise to the top. Notre Dame has never lacked the wherewithal, but the commitment and coaching have been upgraded in the past few years/months and Notre Dame's program is led by men who are as good as anyone in the country. The Irish will be fine.

 

[irishtrinity]

i predict

Notre Dame

2010 8-5
2011 11-2
2012 13-0
2013 13-0

with manti,lynch,golson..

 

[Riddickulous]

i predict

Notre Dame

2010 8-5
2011 11-2
2012 13-0
2013 13-0

with manti,lynch,golson..

We should have a pretty mediocre secondary that year and play a godly schedule. No way we're 13-0. More like 9-4.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I may be an optimist, but I truly believe the Coach Kelly and his staff have what it takes to get ND back to the top of the mountain. Like Rome, it can't happen overnight, but I'm guessing it will happen sooner than later. Go Irish!

Poor choice of words . . . but your point makes it.

we again suffered under a terrible stretch with Terry Brennan

You should really look at Brennan’s record. He was actually quite a coach. And his accomplishments were remarkable, considering how he was hamstrung.

We should have a pretty mediocre secondary that year and play a godly schedule. No way we're 13-0. More like 9-4.

The only question is if '13 adds to a string, to start a new streak. I don't see us as backsliding to mediocrity, even with the competition of the 13 schedule, after this season (undefeated).

 

[enrico514]

Pete the cheat and sweater vest didn't/doesn't run the cleanest programs. It will take a little longer at ND but it will most likely be done the right way. That being said, next year's schedule could be very nice to us. 2012... not so much!!!

I disagree with the notion that Rome can't be built in a day.

Oklahoma:

1996: 3-8
1997: 4-8
1998: 5-6
1999: 7-5
2000: 13-0

Southern Cal:

1997: 6-5
1998: 8-5
1999: 6-6
2000: 5-7
2001: 6-6
2002: 11-2
2003: 12-1
2004: 13-0

Ohio State:

1999: 6-6
2000: 8-4
2001: 7-5
2002: 14-0

I could go on and on but I don't feel like listing it all. But guys like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Jim Tressel...Lou Holtz, Ara Parseghian, etc. took programs drenched in mediocrity and turned them around overnight. It rarely showed the first season, but within two or three years it was evident. I expect the same from Kelly and I am more sure of it with him at the helm than Weis or Willingham.

Programs that have the commitment, wherewithal, and coaching ALWAYS rise to the top. Notre Dame has never lacked the wherewithal, but the commitment and coaching have been upgraded in the past few years/months and Notre Dame's program is led by men who are as good as anyone in the country. The Irish will be fine.

 

[Riddickulous]

You should really look at Brennan’s record. He was actually quite a coach. And his accomplishments were remarkable, considering how he was hamstrung.

Brennan was only average. "Terrible" is pushing it, I agree. He had two good years (9-1, 8-2), but he also helmed one of the, if not the worst team in school history in 1956. The only teams that come close are the '33, '63, and '07 Irish.

IMO, 2013 will tell me all I need to know about Brian Kelly. If we aren't in a BCS bowl game with the talent we'll have on the field then, Kelly is not the guy. Just look at these players...

QB: Hendrix in his fourth year in the program, Golson in his third year, maybe a 2012 recruit. Tommy Rees will still be here, as well.
RB: Possibly Cierre Wood as a fifth year, Cameron Roberson in year four, Cam McDaniel, a couple of stud 2012 kids.
WR: TJ Jones in his fourth year starting, Daniels, Atkinson, Daniel Smith, 2012 kids.
TE: Tyler Eifert as a fifth year senior (should be a monster by then), or Alex Welch, Ben Koyack, 2012 kid, 2013 kid, etc.
OL: Martin and Watt as fifth years, Lombard as a fourth year player, Hanratty perhaps at center, Hegarty, Nick Martin, etc.
DE: Lynch, Tuitt, Kona, Hounshell, Niklas, Springmann.
NT: If Nix is the real deal, he may not be here by then, but we should recruit a stud soon.
OLB: Shembo and Spond as seniors, Ishaq Williams, Rabasa, Councell, etc.
ILB: Calabrese perhaps as a fifth year, Kendall Moore, Justin Utupo, Grace, etc.
CB: Wood and Jackson as seniors, 2011 kids, 2012 kids, etc.
S: Probably the team's weakness, as Motta and (possibly) Slaughter will have graduated.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Somebody on another thread (Kissme) brought something up that got me thinking about the situation that we are in today. Here is what I said:

"By the way, it wasn't BC that stopped ND's NC run in '93; it was the Bobby Bowden lifetime achievement committee. Do any of you remember what Bobby said after the same ND team took his Seminoles apart in November?

That is the origin of all the screw ND attitude in the media, and the Florida teams supplanting ND in the elite program category, with the national football consciousness. I mean NC and ’93 is the mother of it all!"

You know that really affects the original point of this thread and conversations about how fast things can be turned around. '93 should have been an NC. What would have happened if we won it? And what wouldn't have happened to the program not winning it? How much less work would there have been for BK to do? My experience in life is perception and preparation is 90 percent of the task. Just makes you wonder, what if a few breaks had gone our way . . . you know the kind you have no real control over.

 

[Riddickulous]

You know that really affects the original point of this thread and conversations about how fast things can be turned around. '93 should have been an NC. What would have happened if we won it? And what wouldn't have happened to the program not winning it? How much less work would there have been for BK to do? My experience in life is perception and preparation is 90 percent of the task. Just makes you wonder, what if a few breaks had gone our way . . . you know the kind you have no real control over.

The What If scenario. There's a million of them.

If Ron Powlus hadn't been injured in practice before the 1993 season, he very likely would have been the quarterback that year. Kevin McDougal was a large part of ND's success that year, and it's unlikely in my eyes that they would have done the same with a freshman Powlus at the helm.

Even if Notre Dame had beaten Boston College (they brought the upset on themselves by running up the score in 1992, pissing off BC's coach so much that they starting preparing for the '93 game literally the day after the loss), they still would've had to have beaten Nebraska. Who knows if they would have won? We scraped by TAMU (who had a wonderful defense, however) in the Cotton Bowl 28-24.

IMO, ND was already on the decline by the time 1993 rolled around. We weren't nearly as loaded as the earlier Holtz teams, particularly the 1988 team where every starter save Tony Rice played in the NFL.

 

[IrishInColumbus]

Pete the cheat and sweater vest didn't/doesn't run the cleanest programs. It will take a little longer at ND but it will most likely be done the right way. That being said, next year's schedule could be very nice to us. 2012... not so much!!!

That reflects upon the ability to recruit players and continuing sustained success, not turning a program around.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Brennan was only average. "Terrible" is pushing it, I agree. He had two good years (9-1, 8-2), but he also helmed one of the, if not the worst team in school history in 1956. The only teams that come close are the '33, '63, and '07 Irish.

This is the second problem with "returning the IRISH to prominence." Brennan wasn’t even average. In his five years his teams were ranked, in the top five once, the top ten three times, and the top fifteen once. Oh and his quality of wins were better than almost any Notre Dame coach of the modern era, including beating Oklahoma to snap their 47 game winning streak (still in the record books.) The exception was a class of starting sophomores that produced Heisman Trophy winner Paul Hornung.

He did this with twenty scholarships per year. In addition, those players were held to a higher academic standard than any other student on campus was. I want you to show me one coach, and you can include any ND coach that won a National Championship or any of the modern wunderkinds like Saban, Meyer, Stoops, etc., that could perform to the level Brennan did with the restrictions he did.

So the second part of what happened to the Irish is internal. It is this maniacal insistence on proving that we have these incredibly high academic standards. Don’t get me wrong. High standards are good. It is part of what makes Notre Dame what it is. But when you look at the almost obsessive-compulsive excesses of the mid to late fifties and how that carried forward to the attitudes expressed by Res Life until the past year, you see the second part of why Notre Dame fell so far and hard.

Just to review, I say part one is external attitudes and conditions we could not control; we got some bad breaks. Number two is this excessive focus on academic achievement on the part of athletes, otherwise known as a de-emphasis on football. The point is this attitude was at it’s peak during the Brennan years and at the time Lou Holtz was forced out, and guided Res Life since. (Wait till you see the third factor.)

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Meyer, who was at Notre Dame’s Coaches’ Clinic March 25-26 and watched spring practice, responded with an affirmative yes — mainly because he now sees a stronger commitment by the school. He provided the most interesting perspective in the discussion and perhaps even supplied a little insight as to why he opted for Florida over Notre Dame when both jobs came open in 2004.

According to Meyer, when he was an assistant with the Irish he sensed that the school seemed almost embarrassed about being known so much for football. He noted how when he was recruiting prospects for Notre Dame, “they used to hide the Heismans in an upstairs room.” Now, on his first trip back there in 10 years, he was stunned to see the Guglielmino Athletics Complex and how the school’s football history is emphasized.

“You walk in there now, it’s one of the finest facilities in America,” Meyer said. “They display the Heisman trophies, the national championship trophies, they’ve taken the step. I don’t want to say back in the '90s they wanted to hold on to, ‘Well, we’re not going to become a football …’ whatever. I’m not quite sure.


Kirk Herbstreit says great defense is where Notre Dame's comeback has to start.“But it wasn’t the same as it is [now]. You walk onto that campus now, there’s no mistake that there’s a commitment level to reach the highest, highest level.”

See?

from:
ESPN Panel Weighs In On Notre Dame