ESPN on Notre Dame, Weis

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Domers, Your Credibility Is On The Clock

When Notre Dame (2) trap-doored Tyrone Willingham (3) after just three years on the job in 2004, it established a precedent for the next coach:

You've got three years, pal. Have it up and running at full speed or else.

Charlie Weis


Charlie Weis and the Irish are off to an 0-2 start in his third season at South Bend.

Or at least that should have been the established precedent, if Notre Dame was interested in treating its next coach the same way it treated the first African-American coach in the school's history. But Charlie Weis (4) probably can go 2-10 in this, his third year, and still be back in 2008.

Why? The simple answer is fairness -- the majority of coaches should get a fourth season, no matter how the third one turned out. But since fairness didn't factor in with Willingham (6-5 in year three, 21-15 overall), The Dash will offer another reason.

Weis (0-2 in year three, 19-8 overall) was awarded a 10-year, $30 million-plus contract during his first season -- something that would make a firing very costly. He got the contract largely on the strength of a close loss to a great USC team and some interest from the NFL -- although Weis said at his introductory news conference in December 2004, "I don't come here to leave and take a job in the NFL in three years. This is not a stepping stone. This is an end-all for our family. When we come to Notre Dame, we come here with the intent of retiring here."

So either Notre Dame hysterically overbid to keep an unproven coach who had no intention of going anywhere, or else Weis' loyalty pledge turned weak enough that the school felt compelled to overpay to keep him. Either way, Charlie and the Irish would appear joined at the hip -- even while the Notre Dame of Weis' third season is starting to bear strong resemblance to the Notre Dame of Ty Willingham's intolerable third season.

Actually, it's worse. Far worse. That doesn't mean it can't turn around, but the current product is dreadful.

Dating back to last season, the Irish have lost four consecutive games by at least 20 points. Last time Notre Dame lost four straight by 20 or more? How does never sound? But then again, they've only been playing football in South Bend since 1887.

(One of the big knocks on Willingham, by the way, was too many blowout losses.)


It could turn out that the teams that ripped the Irish this year, Georgia Tech (5) and Penn State (6), are the best teams in the ACC and Big Ten, respectively. But that would only continue Weis' trend of beating the bad teams and losing to the good ones. He's 4-6 against ranked opponents (including four straight lopsided losses) and 15-2 against the unranked.

Average end-of-season Sagarin rating for the 19 teams Weis has beaten: 62nd. Average end-of-season Sagarin rating for the 21 teams Willingham beat from 2002-04: 55th.

The one thing Weis was supposed to deliver was a state-of-the-art offense capable of carving up any defense. He did that -- when Willingham's players were there.

The 2007 Irish have not scored an offensive touchdown, even though Weis told his players his first season they would have a "decided schematic advantage" in every game. Some advantage: They've scored 13 points on the season -- fewest through the first two games of the year since 1942. They're last in the nation in rushing offense and total offense.

Former Irish coach Ty Willingham has Washington off to a 2-0 start this season.
The easy fall guy for Domers protective of Weis is the same fall guy they pounded in 2003 and '04: Willingham. They'll tell you his lackluster recruiting left the cupboard bare, setting the stage for this difficult season.

They like to talk about the rankings of recruiting classes. The Dash likes to talk about productivity. For instance:

Of the 856 points Notre Dame has scored with Weis as head coach, 19 of them have been scored by players who originally committed to and signed with him. That includes the defensive touchdown, the extra point and two field goals that constitute this season's scoring. A Weis recruit has scored exactly one offensive touchdown in 27 games: George West (7) on an 11-yard run last season against Purdue, one of three times West touched the ball from scrimmage in 2006.


It's true that Weis coached many of Willingham's players better than Willingham ever did. It's also true that Weis owes Willingham a large debt for at least getting the likes of Brady Quinn, Jeff Samardzija and Darius Walker on campus.

Meanwhile, Washington (8) is 2-0 in its third season under Willingham, having won by 30 points on the road to open the season and then ending the nation's longest winning streak in a two-touchdown upset of Boise State (9).

Willingham is in a place that suits him better than Notre Dame ever did. He might never have won truly big in South Bend, and might never have been truly happy.

But the criticism of Willingham was as excessive as the praise (and compensation) accorded Weis. That's the double standard Notre Dame has set in place, and the double standard it must live with.
 

KamaraPolice

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I agree with this article 100%, here's why:

When Coach Weis got to Notre Dame, he stated that his third season would be trying because of the lack of would be upperclassman, and so many vital players leaving to graduation. Defeatism attitude

Ty beat Michigan in his third season, something Charlie Weis hasn't done.

Ty also beat Michigan State in season 3, another thing Charlie Weis hasn't.

Ty even beat Washington in his third season. And Charlie? NOPE!

Ty's third season, the team scored 289 points. In Charlie Weis's third season, Notre Dame scored 13 points, and only 6 on offense.

Ty won 6 games his third season. Charlie Weis lost every single game the team played his third season.

In Ty's third season, he used a sophomore quarterback. In Charlie's third season, he benched his sophomore quarterback in a failed attempt to get "sympathy" votes.

Ty played 4 ranked opponents in season 3. Charlie only played 1.

Ty won 11 games in his second and third season combined. Charlie only won 10 in his second and third season combined.

In conclusion, this is a great article. It takes Ty's last two seasons at Notre Dame and compares them with Charlie's last two seasons. Although we ignore the fact that the teams Notre Dame has lost to are materially better than the teams Ty lost to, we do receive great insight to the immaterial difference between the rankings of the teams the two coaches beat.

Pat Forde, 2007 Pulitzer Prize?
 
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dudexcore

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I agree with this article 100%, here's why:

When Coach Weis got to Notre Dame, he stated that his third season would be trying because of the lack of would be upperclassman, and so many vital players leaving to graduation. Defeatism attitude

Ty beat Michigan in his third season, something Charlie Weis hasn't done.

Ty also beat Michigan State in season 3, another thing Charlie Weis hasn't.

Ty even beat Washington in his third season. And Charlie? NOPE!

Ty's third season, the team scored 289 points. In Charlie Weis's third season, Notre Dame scored 13 points, and only 6 on offense.

Ty won 6 games his third season. Charlie Weis lost every single game the team played his third season.

In Ty's third season, he used a sophomore quarterback. In Charlie's third season, he benched his sophomore quarterback in a failed attempt to get "sympathy" votes.

Ty played 4 ranked opponents in season 3. Charlie only played 1.

Ty won 11 games in his second and third season combined. Charlie only won 10 in his second and third season combined.

In conclusion, this is a great article. It takes Ty's last two seasons at Notre Dame and compares them with Charlie's last two seasons. Although we ignore the fact that the teams Notre Dame has lost to are materially better than the teams Ty lost to, we do receive great insight to the immaterial difference between the rankings of the teams the two coaches beat.

Pat Forde, 2007 Pulitzer Prize?

I love you.
 

piyachi

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And here I only liked you for your combination of radiohead and Kamara....reps baby, reps.
 

wallym

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Dude - you need to somehow get this in Pat Forde's hands. He is responsible for the original article on espn.com
 

connor_in

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Karma-

I was a little sleepy when I started to read your post and little by little my blood was starting to boil thinking what the @#$%?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!!??? then I got to points scored and games won and started thinking...this guy is smoking something illegal...

Dude...I gotta stop reading while groggy or you gotta tag it sarcasm with a winker or something
 

johnnd05

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I just submitted this to NDLNA ... let's see if it gets any cheers.
 
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One thing I don't agree with in the article in the OP is how the author compares the production of Ty's best recruits in their senior years with Weis' recruits who are still very young. That is not a fair comparison. Brady Quinn was average his first 2 years as a QB, but he got better as he matured. Why not give another year or two and see how the new recruits fare?

The article is good in that it shows Willingham was not a complete failure. He did some positive things, just not enough of them. His overall success in recruiting wasn't very good, even though he brought in some stellar players. And do you think the Irish would be any better this year with Willingham coaching? No, and the reason is because the upper classman you see on the field now, or don't see because they are getting beat out by freshman for playing time, were Willingham's recruits.
 

PADOMERNUT

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King Tut if you actually think Pat Forde is a credible journalist than you are dumber than I thought.
 

johnnd05

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Yes. He did not have them met at the airport either. One recruit complained that he had to get a taxi.

nice.

Wow, what a class act. When I was at ND we treated our GRADUATE STUDENT recruits better than that.
 

johnnd05

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In case anyone doesn't see it, this is from the other "Chad Forde = Ignorant Dick" thread. The HLS piece that LMI links to is definitely worth a click.

Facts lie when they are distorted.

Here's a nice little response from the boys at Her Loyal Sons:
Pat Forde, Your Credibilty is Deader than Bo Schembechler

Her Loyal Sons » Pat Forde, Your Credibilty is Deader than Bo Schembechler

This HLS bit is very good. My favorite line is this:

Ty Willingham’s offenses produced 22.3, 20.3, and 24.1 points per game in his 3 years. So in his first 2 years, Ty average 21.3 points per game. Charlie has averaged 33.85 points per game in his first 2 years. Almost 2 touchdowns better per game. And Ty wasn’t hamstrung with an empty talent pool from Bob Davie like Charlie was from Ty. If Charlie’s offense were to produce 0, ZERO, points for the entirety of the 2007 season, his scoring average would be 22. That would be just .23 points worse than Ty’s 3 year scoring average.

The way they complain about recruiting numbers at the start is misleading, though: in the first place, while it's true that there are only 22 players LEFT from the '04 and '05 classes, many of the ones who left did so at least in part because of Ty's departure. Also, I take it that at least part of the reason why the '05 class is so small is also because Willingham was fired when recruiting wasn't finished (not that it would have been a good class ... clearly, it wouldn't have). To then take those numbers and add only the number of current FIFTH-YEARS (8) to that 22 and remark that in contrast Weis will be bringing in 65 players over three years is misleading, Chad Forde-style.

We can, though, just put the point this way: Willingham brought in a total of 54 players in three years (22 in '03, 17 in '04, 15 in '05). Weis will likely be bringing in a total of 65 over the same period, and with players of far better quality to boot.

Oh and by the way, here are the Sagarin statistics I was asking for, from the comments thread of that post:

If we are going to make the comparison of average Sagarin for wins, it follows that a well researched article would include the average Sagarin ranking for losses as well. Since Pat Forde did not, I will :)

Willingham Losses:
2002 (USC - 1, NC State - 14, BC - 26)
2003 (USC - 2, Mich - 8, MSU - 34, Purdue - 22, Florida St - 6, BC - 37, Syracuse - 61)
2004 (BYU - 41, Purdue - 24, Boston College - 26, Pittsburgh - 55, USC - 1, Oregon St - 17)

Weis Losses:
2005 (USC - 2, OSU - 3, MSU - 35)
2006 (Mich - 7, USC - 2, LSU - 3)
2007 (GT-8, PSU -14)

Coach Weis losses are ranked by an average of 9.25. Coach Willingham’s losses are ranked by an average of 23.4.

So there's your statistic, Cap'n Spaztastic.
 
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goldandblue

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Very good Post. I'm not familiar with what the (sagarin) is. Can you enlighten me?
 

domerfor life

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It is comical how ESPN waits with baited breath for any opportunity to slam ND. Facts be damned. That is a horribly writing article based on nothing but his desire to slam ND for their "perceived" hypocrisy. GTech and PSU are just better than the Irish this year. During Willingham's years was BC really better? Was Pitt? Was Syracuse who kicked our tails by 20+? We were barely beating the Academys. They did this last year trumping Willingham's start only to be silenced as the season progressed. Here they are again with the same idiotic dribble. Charlie is 0-2, Willingham is 2-0. Whatever dude. Kamara your post was funny man.
 
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johnnd05

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BGS has a GREAT post on the issue of Willingham's (*cough*lack of*cough*) "recruiting", specifically on the o-line, here. A must-read. Money quote, from the conclusion:

As we've repeatedly said, we think the current coaches could do a better job with this year's offensive line. The confusion among linemen, the missed assignments, and the penalties on display in the first two games point to inadequate preparation and repetition, which falls on the coaches. However, the role of the previous staff in our current predicament is impossible for the intelligent fan to ignore. Thus if any discussion that involves the lingering deleterious effects of the Willingham regime offends you, there's no point in sniping about it in the comments. Blinding ourselves to salient data would preclude the type of discourse we strive for on this blog, and you can probably expect ongoing discussion, consideration, and reconsideration of the interplay between coaching and depth issues along the OL throughout the season.
 
G

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BGS has a GREAT post on the issue of Willingham's (*cough*lack of*cough*) "recruiting", specifically on the o-line, here. A must-read. Money quote, from the conclusion:

johnd05,

That entire blog needs to be copied here. This was a phenomenal analysis, and is far better quality than the junk that major writers like ESPN put out.
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A couple days ago, Dylan and I mentioned the role Willingham's recruiting plays in this year's struggle. Neither of us placed the blame for the offense's struggles solely at Willingham's feet. I specifically noted that the Willingham regime's lingering stench did not completely exonerate Weis & Co. ("Even without the upperclassmen options available at the vast majority of programs, I'm still surprised that the offensive coaches have not been able to produce a line capable of even modest success at opening holes or sustaining a pocket.") Nonetheless, the mere mention of Willingham's partial culpability left several people howling in outrage. These people are just going to have to deal with it. As shadyirish pointed out on on NDNation:

It is useful, when analyzing the last two weeks, to separate what appear to be problems that relate to situations under the control of the current staff (e.g. playcalling and gameplanning, player development, personnel decisions) and things not under the control of the current staff (e.g. recruiting shortfalls under previous staff). In fact, discussing the former while ignoring the latter is sure to produce a terribly flawed analysis of the situation.

We're quite concerned about playcalling, gameplanning and development issues. However, it's impossible to assess the coaches' shortcomings in these areas this year without reflecting on what the coaches have to work with. Back in our February 2005 Recruiting Roundtable, we were concerned with the long-tail effect of deficient OL recruiting. As Pat stated at the time:

The biggest "get" in this class was Paul Duncan and Michael Turkovich. Offensive lineman, especially tackles, were a top priority and by all accounts ND got two good ones. That only gives Notre Dame six offensive lineman in the past three years which is really going to hurt in a few years unless the young players develop and develop fast. I'm of the opinion that the play of the offense depends largely on the play of the offensive line. Even the best QB in country can't do much if he's being chased around the field. And even though ND missed on a few other tackles and guards in this class, Duncan and Turkovich appear to be quality players and fill the position I figured was the most glaring need this year.

Also consider the following post made by Hickster on NDNation in April 2005, before the first game of the Weis era:

Here is what I see should happen if things work out the way that we anticipate, under Coach Weis' ability to recruit, develop and coach:

2005: Next year could be strong, if we are lucky enough to catch lightning in a bottle for the 2nd time (back in '64 when Ara took over in the 1st year). Unfortunately, systems seem to be more difficult to pick-up than back then.

2006: System in with good experience. Last full year of the last strong recruiting class in 2003 with players not redshirted BQ, RH, JS, on offense and VA, CN, FP on defense, plus some good experience from some 2002 redshirted players. This year's 2006 strong recruiting class get a chance to get used to the system...some skill players and only "man-child" lineman will see the field.

2007: New starting QB. No depth with OL and 6 of top 7 players from the good 2003 recruits have already used up their eligibility. This is the year for 2006 recruiting class and new QB to get allot of experience. This reminds me of 1972 when a lot of sophomores (Tom Clements and crew) got experience and get ready for 1973's NC year.

2008: 2006 recruiting class are juniors combined with those stronger players and overachieving players from previous classes will be playing. Also, there should be Top 5 to Top 10 recruiting classes from here on out to insert outstanding sophomores and start to maintain the program at the highest level.

While Freddie Parish did not live up to expectations and Weis implemented his system sooner than expected, that is a rather prescient analysis. It also shows that the current year's drop-off could be seen coming years away. Yet even with these concerns, I don't think many would have expected that the offense would fail to score a touchdown in the first two games. That has left us disappointed in Weis & Co., but just how disappointed should we be? That's a question that can't be answered without considering certain factors attributable to the previous regime - and we're not going to ignore these factors simply to avoid offending the hyper-delicate sensibilities of some. What can be expected from an offensive line that includes the following class distribution of scholarship linemen will probably be debated throughout the course of the season

5th-year seniors
Seniors
Juniors
Sophomores
Freshmen
1
0
3
6
3

At this point, it's hard to deny the significance of the big donut in the senior class.

Jay brought up another point that really brings the depth and experience issues with the offensive line into stark relief: our backup left and right tackles are Matt Romine and Taylor Dever, respectively, both "true" freshmen. During the Georgia Tech and Penn State games, the Irish coaches experimented with different options at the interior positions - starters Turkovich, Sullivan, and Wenger were spelled by Eric Olsen, former walk-on Thomas Bemenderfer, and Matt Carufel. However, I believe tackles Paul Duncan and Sam Young played every single down throughout both games (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). It's possible the other tackles simply haven't spent enough time on campus to develop the strength and conditioning necessary to hold up in game action.

At this point, you may be asking, "If the issues at OL were such foreseeable consequences of the Willingham regime, why didn't your predictions reflect this?" That's a good question, and one I've been asking myself quite a bit over the last week and a half. At this point, I would say that the previous staff's recruiting is not the sole reason for the OL's struggles. The coaches with responsibility for the line - Latina and, yes, Weis - have not lived up to my expectations in this area. However, I think I overlooked two other key factors, both of which relate to relate to the longer development period for offensive linemen than most other positions.

First, I overestimated Notre Dame's ability to establish a power running game. While I realized that the young turks would have problems with pass protection as they gained experience, I thought the highly touted underclassmen would be able to make up for these problems with punishing run blocking. Two games without positive rushing yards later, this has clearly not been the case. I now find myself asking whether the young guys have developed the strength necessary to impose their will on defensive lines. Duncan and Turkovich have only spent two offseasons in a collegiate strength and conditioning program, while Wenger and Young have only had one. A typical starting OL will be full of guys that have been through offseason strength programs three or four times. This is significant because one of the first things college athletes discover is how much harder college S&C programs are than what they knew in high school. In particular, college athletes commonly discuss building strength in their lower bodies that they never could have imagined, and lower body strength is of utmost importance in the trenches. I previously mentioned how I hoped the OL could adopt the style of the '93 OL, who in Kevin McDougal's absence so thoroughly controlled the Southern Cal defense that backup QB Paul Failla only had to attempt five passes. When asked about the Irish line, a Trojan defender said, "They were like trees." At this point, we may still be waiting for some saplings to grow into trees.

Second, turning a highly touted high school lineman into an effective college lineman requires considerable development both individually and as part of a unit. There's a reason Sam Young was the first player in the history of ND football to start at tackle from Day 1 as a freshman - it usually takes significant physical, technical, and mental development after high school before one can play the line. In addition to developing his individual skills, a lineman also needs to learn how to play with the other members of his line. It's easier for a running back (say, Armando Allen) or receiver to crack the lineup and produce than it is for a lineman. While a receiver, for example, needs to get his timing down with the QB, that only requires being on the same page as one other member of the offense. Linemen need time to learn how to block in concert with the linemen/TE on either side of them, if not with the whole OL. This brings us back to why having only Romine & Dever as the top backups is so precarious.

One sidenote about the paucity of linemen in the upper classes that bears mentioning is the limited options for filling that donut hole. After a 6-6 record his first year, Pete Carroll guided Southern Cal to a 10-2 record his second year and the Trojans haven't looked back. There are many reasons for this. First and foremost, Carroll is an exceptional college head coach. He also inherited a team with quite a bit of talent, and Carroll has recruited his ass off since his arrival. And as Michael mentioned in our 2005 Recruiting Roundtable, Southern Cal received significant contributions from junior college players, including offensive linemen Taitusi Lutui and John Drake. Weis has recruited several very highly touted prospects that already appear ready for major roles (Darrin Walls, Jimmy Clausen, Armando Allen, etc.). Yet when teams need quick fixes along the OL, it's much easier to turn to the JUCO ranks than high school prospects. At Notre Dame, this isn't an option. Thus while Weis has been able to address the linemen issues in the younger classes, there's really no way he could fix the void Willingham left in the upper classes. We've had to start filling at the bottom, and it's going to take time.

As we've repeatedly said, we think the current coaches could do a better job with this year's offensive line. The confusion among linemen, the missed assignments, and the penalties on display in the first two games point to inadequate preparation and repetition, which falls on the coaches. However, the role of the previous staff in our current predicament is impossible for the intelligent fan to ignore. Thus if any discussion that involves the lingering deleterious effects of the Willingham regime offends you, there's no point in sniping about it in the comments. Blinding ourselves to salient data would preclude the type of discourse we strive for on this blog, and you can probably expect ongoing discussion, consideration, and reconsideration of the interplay between coaching and depth issues along the OL throughout the season.
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johnnd05

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More good stuff here. I can't believe I neglected to cut and paste this paragraph from the HLS piece, though:

The double standard has been entirely manufactured by right-lobe deficients like yourself, Pat. Your inability to look at the larger picture because you’re a slave to your editors who just want crap columns like yours to rile up enough readers to sell advertising space has possibly made you entirely blind to the truth here. Or, worse, you don’t actually believe what you’ve written, but, again, you’re a slave to the all-mighty ad revenue, and thus turned out a piece that was easy to write, without much thought or research, because it enabled you to make that early-afternoon tee-time. Say hi to Ty if you see him. Talk about a credibility check.

Oh, BURN! :onfire:
 

KamaraPolice

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More good stuff here. I can't believe I neglected to cut and paste this paragraph from the HLS piece, though:



Oh, BURN! :onfire:

My thoughts exactly.

We could argue until blue in the face and it wouldnt change a damn thing. But consider this, my friend gave me a Sports Illustrated article years ago that talked about two young freshman at Notre Dame that had the potential to win the Heisman Trophy. Those two guys, both recruited by Bob Davie, were Rhema McKnight and Maurice Stovall. Where the hell were they doing the Ty years? Everyone wants to say Weis won with Ty's players, but if I remember correctly, the most accomplished players on the Ty offenses were Omar Jenkins, a guy by the name of Matt Shelton, and Matt LoVecchio (throw in Davie recruit Julius Jones if you want to). Weis groomed Quinn into the player he became and it opened the door for two great receivers that Davie, not Ty brought in (McKnight and Stovall).

edit: Ty actually closed the deal with Stovall and McKnight, but they had verballed to Davie.
 
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So much posting about Ty Willingham and Pat Forde. so little posting about Weis carving his name into Notre Dame history week after week after week for reasons that would leave just about any other coach in the universe jobless.

Interesting.
 
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