Depth Charts with Recruiting Composite

[JTLA]

A little data for your Saturday night / Sunday morning...

The 2015 recruiting class currently has 11 position players rated with a composite AVG below 0.89 according to 247Sports. For reference purposes, this benchmark is typically for recruits outside the Top 300 and are generally considered 3* prospects.

Projecting the 2014 Depth Chart
Notre Dame has the following number of players who fit this ranking:
2014 1st Team: 6 of 22 2nd Team: 9 of 22

Reviewing the 2013, 2012, and 2011 Opening Game depth charts is interesting
2013 1st Team: 9 of 22 2nd Team: 9 of 22
2012 1st Team: 7 of 22 2nd Team: 13 of 22
2011 1st Team: 5 of 22 2nd Team: 10 of 22

So what's my point? I guess that I was alarmed at the number of 3* prospects currently committed in this class (11 of 17) so I wanted to see how many of these types of players excel to become starters.

Also, as a side note, my 2014 projected 3rd team has just 5 out of 20 below .89... hmmm.... I did my best to project 2014 depth charts and will update as the picture becomes clearer. DL and LB are obviously very hard to project right now. With a couple moves post summer, the 1st team number could easily drop as low as 2 or 3 (it could also go up one or two).

Tabbed worksheet...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10GVHZ44IxVe9kWadDUKkPSiOcGP5PHoM5OeuTms9ha4/edit#gid=0

 

[johnnycando]

I look forward to your results.

Great idea.

 

[irishog77]

Thanks for doing this and putting in the work. I always like looking at "advanced statistics," so to speak.


Not to deflate your work here, but I do wonder a bit about your final results. I guess, specifically, I'm not sure that the results will actually demonstrate the true impact of 3-Star players.

85 is a fixed variable. And to an extent, 22 is a fixed variable (but as we know, some guys play as much as starters or are as valuable as the player designated among the 22). The number of 3-Stars isn't a fixed variable though. If all 85 players are 3-Star players, then the entire depth chart consists of 3-Stars. This would inflate the importance of those players. After all, somebody actually has to play, right? If, for instance, 75 of the players on the roster were 5-Star players and 10 were 3-Stars, then the movement of the 3's on the depth chart would perhaps demonstrate a stronger trend. But we don't have that situation. I think class/year plays a role as well in the depth chart, meaning, a 3-Star Senior is usually (or can be, at least) higher on the depth chart than a 4 or 5 star Freshman. Factors like knowledge of the system, strength, physical and emotional maturity, etc. all play a role.

So I guess there's no perfect way to use stats on this subject. But as I said, thanks for doing this and I look forward to reading more about the results.