3 in a row

[KAPLAN]

We have covered 3 spreads in a row. This might be little more than a moral victory to some but to the betting public this is big. I think we cover 4 in a row after this week.

On a serious note it means we are playing better than the "experts" think, which means we are improving.

 

[Golden_Domer88]

our biggest accomplishment is covering spread lines now?

Wow im proud to be a Notre dame fan now.

 

[NDOM]

 

[Moostache]

I am sure the BC fans were quite pleased by that turn of events....

"Bettor's College loses game against the spread - lots of money bet on ND at the 11th hour, news at 11..."

On the other hand, there has been some improvement on the defense, especially over the last 10 quarters - covering the second half of Purdue and the UCLA and BC games. The defense can hardly be faulted for surrendering one sustained TD drive outside of plus territory to the supposed #2 team in the country last weekend. Of course, if BC is really #2, based on what we have played this year that would mean Michigan is probably #1....

 

[KamaraPolice]

I knew it was bad when my dad yelled during one game:

"WOW! WHAT A GREAT CATCH!"

Whatever happened to celebrating touchdowns?

 

[Timugen]

We have covered 3 spreads in a row. This might be little more than a moral victory to some but to the betting public this is big. I think we cover 4 in a row after this week.

On a serious note it means we are playing better than the "experts" think, which means we are improving.

Um....aren't sports book lines based on the result the book needs to make a profit off of the bets placed? There are no "experts" (at least in terms of football) involved in setting that line, unless you count gamblers with deep pockets (and they didn't all get those deep pockets via gambling) as "experts."

I may be wrong on this, but I seem to recall seeing a documentary on [insert random cable channel that I can't remember here] about the premier "line-setter" (or whatever he would be called,) in Vegas, and the lines were not set based on any expertise on the sport but on both the way the bets were coming in and how anticipated future bets would come in.

 

[KamaraPolice]

From what I know, and trust me, its not much, people betting actually determine the spread. So if im putting money on notre dame, and so are you, but kaplans betting his money on duke, all things being equal (including the bets), notre dame would be favored.

Am I wrong? Does that just count for horse racing? Or maybe just horse shoes and hand grenades.

 

[Moostache]

The opening line reflects the "experts" more than the adjusted lines - although a lot of the opening line is based on betting expectations from the current season, the teams involved and the betting history of those teams or match-ups. The whole thing probably employs more actuaries than the insurance business....

The opening line is then used to gauge the betting on each side, and it is moved during the time before a game accordingly to attract equal money on both sides. If a lot of money is going on the favorite, the line expands to make the underdog more attractive and vice versa. The house then is guaranteed to profit by taking their cut off of every bet win or lose and an equal number of win and loss bets to cover.

Of course, I could be totally wrong too....

 

[Timugen]

The whole thing probably employs more actuaries than the insurance business....

Bingo. Being an Applied Math/Actuarial Science major, I was pretty interested in that documentary that I referred to previously and was very surprised at how little "sports expertise" went in to setting the lines. But if you think about it, it makes sense.

But once again, I'm not a compulsive gambler, so I don't know for sure - just basing my understanding of it on a documentary I saw a year or so ago.

 

[WaveDomer]

This is why "big money" can affect the odds. See: Arnold Rothstein.

 

[kjones]

I don't know about you guys, but this year, I celebrate every first down. It definitely makes things more fun. Waiting for touchdowns can take too darn long. I like to have fun at the games. And if we win, omg, the ecstasy .

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

There has been a change...

There has been a change...

I don't know about you guys, but this year, I celebrate every first down. It definitely makes things more fun. Waiting for touchdowns can take too darn long. I like to have fun at the games. And if we win, omg, the ecstasy .

kjones,

Someone in this thread mentions "He caught it!" and between
that and the first downs, our expectations have changed...

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[Easton Pa ND Fan]

Lines aim to generate bets, not predict scores...

Lines aim to generate bets, not predict scores...

USA TODAY'S sports section (09/08/07) published an article on
sports gambling. Here is some of it.

"Favorites that win the game by more points than the betting
line "cover" the spread. Favorites that lose the game, win
by fewer points or win by the same number of points don't.
Bettors taking the favorite are said to "give" or "lay" the
points. Bettors on the underdog "take" the points. Games
with no favorites are "pick 'em.""

"An oddsmaker's objective with a betting lines is not to mysti-
cally predict the winners or losers or final scores. It's to
DIVIDE THE PuBLIC. That is, to make the bettors greedy
enough or angry enought to bet."

"Contrary to popular belief, bookmaker's don't want to hit the
exact numbers. That produces a "push" or tie, with most bettors
getting their money back. That's why bookmakers use so many
"hooks" or half-points in football lines."

And there you have it...Tom

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[kjones]

kjones,

Someone in this thread mentions "He caught it!" and between
that and the first downs, our expectations have changed...

GOIRISH!!

I'm not denying my expectations changed after the first, I don't know, 3 or 4 losses. But I still want to have fun watching this season, and it's not like I'm going to support another team. So I take pleasure in the victories that we get, however small. And when the big ones come, it's pure heaven.

You just kinda have to let the losses roll off your back. Perhaps this is easier for me since I was on a perennially losing youth soccer team until junior high when I joined the Select league. A good 4 years of so of losing most games will teach you how to handle defeats and just work on just improving each game.

That being said, I fully expect our guys to be able to pull out a win this game against USCum.