IrishLax's pre-season Vegas thoughts

[IrishLax]

So I spent some time today talking with some buddies of mine that are handicappers (i.e. pro gamblers) out in Vegas. They do what they call "arbitrage" betting where they play odds at different casinos against each other and make money on the margins.

They brought up one really interesting point related to Notre Dame... did you all know that ND's lines all moved A LOT from where they originally opened? Apparently, there were a lot of games (especially the Michigan game) that opened up pretty heavy towards ND's opponent but then swung in ND's favor as early money came in. Because of this, they were able to lay down bets to the tune of about +120 on both sides of the line... so no matter what the outcome they're coming out thousands of dollars richer.

In other news, here are some early lines that seem really off to me:
Oregon +1200 to win NC coupled with LSU +900. Whichever team wins the first game is going to have a really good chance at getting to the NC. 12/1 and 9/1 are pretty darn good value bets if you ask me.
Virginia Tech +2500 to win the NC. 25/1 odds are outrageous considering how freaking easy their schedule is. They play ZERO ranked teams... and half their schedule is Appalachian State, East Carolina, Marshall, Arkansas State, Duke, Wake Forest. The chances of them going 12-0 heading into the ACC championship game are high. So really you're taking something like a 20/1 shot on VT beating FSU or whoever in the ACC title game and then following that up with a win over whoever in the NC. They have a much easier schedule than Boise State. Seriously.

Virginia Tech +175 coupled with Florida State +130 to win ACC. Who else is going to compete there? Miami? Hell no. Coachless UNC? Constant underperformer Clemson? I just see one of these teams winning it.

Oregon +125 coupled with Stanford +200 to win PAC12. This just seems like a no brainer to me.

Virginia Tech OVER 10 wins. Easiest schedule ever.
Michigan OVER 7 wins. Just cannot see them going 6-6... I think 7 wins is the floor.
Notre Dame OVER 9 wins. Because it's coming at a really solid +105 I don't think it's possible to lose both Michigan OVER 7 and this bet on ND.
USF OVER 8 wins. I really think 8 wins is the floor for this team... especially when their Big East championship odds are running at +250 which is only second to WVU.

Happy betting

 

[BIGIRISHMAN]

wow thanks for that im putting some serious coin on VT if i get rich i owe you waffle house for life

 

[IrishLax]

Odds taken from: NCAA Football Championship Odds - 2012 BCS National Championship Odds

For those that were asking. Also, just because I think Oregon, LSU and Tech are good value bets does not mean I'm picking them to win the NC. Just that I think their odds are greater than what they're being given.

 

[Rocket89]

Do you think casinos purposely undervalue Notre Dame when they first post odds? Seems like a good business practice.

Didn't the UM game open up something ridiculous like ND (+4)?

Now that's moved completely the other way to -4 or close to it.

 

[IrishLax]

Do you think casinos purposely undervalue Notre Dame when they first post odds? Seems like a good business practice.

Didn't the UM game open up something ridiculous like ND (+4)?

Now that's moved completely the other way to -4 or close to it.

From what I've been told, I don't think so. The guys who usually set the initial lines are the Las Vegas Sports Consultants and they are paid to set lines with 50% of guys on one side and 50% on the other. Typically, a good business practice is to have a line stay put and attractive to induce lots of even betting on both sides of the line. When you can "tease" a line or get a point favorite to flip... there is usually a pro gambler somewhere making a killing.

So the important thing to conclude here is that the public has a much higher perception of Notre Dame's abilities than a panel of experts who are paid lots of money to set lines accurately. The amateur handicapper in me wants to say lay down bets against ND for every single game this year and you'll win the majority... but I'm buying the hype like all of the other public lemmings. Time will tell I guess. But it's also important to note that Kelly has a good track records ATS and Notre Dame performed well against the spread last year even with a blowout to Navy and a freak loss to Tulsa to their name.

DISCLAIMER: I've only actually placed bets in Vegas once. It paid out quite well (New England slight favorites over the horribly untalented and overrated Bears = eaaaaaaaaaaaaasy money on the spread... plus some other games). With that being said, I took 10 cents to well over $70 on centsports.com... which isn't too shabby. 700x return on my initial money. And I've also done pretty solid on the vBook here. But don't take my word as gospel. I'm just a dude who played a 3rd tier sport and spends too much time on sports blogs because I finish my tasks at work in 1/4 the time they are supposed to take.