As I think and write about this at 2:somethin' in the morning, the thing I see that a lot of people aren't keeping account of is that the current conference landscape will look drastically different if these super conferences emerge. And I don't mean from just a numbers or new schools perspective. The thing that is driving all this is money and the capability of revenue generated by schools. If and when the super conferences come about, I think all sorts of strange bedfellows will emerge.
It is not a safe assumption to think if the SEC tries to get FSU, Clemson, or GT that Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia will be fine with those moves. They won't at all and will fight it. To what extent is the key.
Let's stick with Florida here for example sake. If Florida gets their feelings hurt and/or feels threatened by the addition of FSU, then look for them to keep their options open. Florida is now a larger school with an emerging academic reputation. They are the premier state school in the state of Florida. That alone brings more revenue streams and capabilities than FSU, CFU, SF, etc. Ultimately what people are mad with Texas about is them trying to maximize revenue and profit. Other schools already are and will look to do the same. Florida already does and will continue to get premier recruits from probably the top state in high school football. Their location and performance alone will allow them to continue to be able to get some kids as well from south Georgia, south Alabama, and others in the Southeast. I wouldn't put it past the university at all to keep all their options open.
I use the Florida example to show that what would stop say, ND, Texas, USC, Miami, UNC, Virginia, Stanford, UCLA, BYU, Florida, and ____ to say, "You know what, we're all schools with nation wide alumni bases (and in turn, somewhat of a national following); we're pretty good academically; we are in key geographic, population, and recruiting areas; we want to remain prestigious (or become more prestigious); we want to compete with not only like-minded institutions, but be in a tough, admired, and competitive-on-the-field conference; and oh yeah-- we want to make as much money as we can on top of all that."
Right now, by and large, the only things that actually makes the existing conferences who they are are geography and history. The super conference idea changes that and throws the ideas of geography and rivalry/history out the window. Yes, Texas and Texas A&M share a lot of things...and genuine animosity is truly one of them. Going back many years and ongoing through today, many of A&M's and Texas' tie-ins with one another was mandated at the state legislature-- not because they actually wanted to compete and face one another on a yearly basis. If and when UT and A&M do break-up, it'll be with happy hearts on both sides. I don't know as much about UT and A&M as other competing state institutions, but I'm sure there are more like theirs. A lot of these "state brethren" schools would just as much see the other school suffer as they prosper. This also leads me to believe the super conferences may have a drastically different look than we all know them as today.
Another profit/revenue tidbit that will drive realignment is that football IS KING. Period. FB revenue dwarfs revenue from all other sports...usually combined. Yes, basketball is great and produces some revenue, but nothing compared to football. Remember how Kansas was going to be left out last summer when we thought the super conferences may emerge? I think it is quite telling that a school that game-in, game-out gets 20,000 people in the stands for games and is one of just a very select few historic and current basketball powers...could of very easily ended up in the Mountain West or Conference USA!
There's lots of speculation and posturing going on between schools and conferences right now. Nobody knows how much of it is real...or just brought up to gauge interest and reactions. And nobody knows how this will play out. I certainly do not. I just think there's a good chance that things will look a lot more different than they will look the same.
Sorry for the long, rambling post. I'm definitely not wanting to come across like I know things others don't know or that I'm lecturing or preaching! Just a late night "get it off my chest" bull session!
(I think going to the Titans game tonight got my critical thinking and competitive juices flowing- haha!)