The PROFITcies of IrishLax

[Mr. McGibblets]

I heard one guy ripping on Mich State today but I like Mich State in that game. But I dont like the Pac 10 so I am biased.

Are any of Louisville's players hurt? I know 2 of them were banged up after the UCONN game, Silva especially.

 

[IrishLax]

I heard one guy ripping on Mich State today but I like Mich State in that game. But I dont like the Pac 10 so I am biased.

Are any of Louisville's players hurt? I know 2 of them were banged up after the UCONN game, Silva especially.

Siva and Knowles both good to go. If not 100%, they're 95%. I think I'm going to stick with that game. Even though I think Michigan State sucks, just too hard to bet against Izzo and Lucas with any conviction.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Going to consolidate my picks int this post here as the lines come out. I like:

Cincinnati +1 over Missouri. Missouri is so similar to Cincy... just a little bit worse. Should be a close game but I'm picking Cincy straight up to win so the point is nice. Cincy is underrated after getting embarrassed by our very own fighting Irish.
Villanova +1.5 over George Mason. Having watched Mason a ton (I live in Fairfax County) this team is probably more talented than the one that went to the Final Four. However, I just have a hunch Villanova is going to come out firing after a disappointing end to the season.
Marquette +1.5 over Xavier. Xavier is so laughably overrated.... only thing in their favor here is that they are playing this game very close to home.
Tennessee EVEN over Michigan. Tennessee has tons of upside. Michigan is just a very average team that can shoot 3s OK. I thought Michigan would come in at a lower seed around an 11 so I think the 8 is a bit of a gift.
Notre Dame -13 over Akron. Akron has gotten tooled pretty hard by some very average teams (Temple by 35, Ohio by 25, Cleveland State by 13) and you have to think Notre Dame is better than Temple, Ohio and Cleveland State, right?
Louisville -9.5 over Morehead State. This one is tricky because Morehead State has one great player and he is a post player. By the same token, everyone locked in Morehead State for a #15 seed (heck, Morehead State players actually lobbied for a 15 because they thought they might get a #16) and Louisville, in my humble opinion, is every bit as good North Carolina, Florida, SDSU and Notre Dame (e.g. they are a #2 seed in terms of talent). I expect Louisville to hold a 6-14 point lead down the stretch and if Morehead State starts fouling it should end up a double digit victory for the Cardinals.
UNDER 147 Cincinnati and Missouri. I flopped back and forth on this but at the end of the day Cinci has only gone over 147 points in a game 5 of 33 games this year (Providence in OT, USF at 148, Utah Valley, St. Francis, Georgia Southern). Missouri has gone over 147 in almost exactly 50% of games. Yes, the Tigers will try to run-and-gun like always but I just think Cinci is good enough to slow them down and if they do end up playing at a break-neck pace for some ludicrous reason and lose.... well, hopefully their offense didn't put out 70+ points in a losing effort because Cinci is 25-0 when scoring over 62 points. In a lot of ways this is a nice hedge against the bet for Cinci +1.

That is all for now... I have pretty solid faith in all of these picks and extremely good confidence in the first 5. Notice how I had to use more facts to justify the last two haha. Staying away from UCLA +2 simply because Izzo in March can defy all odds and logic.

Good job. Big East bias???? Me too.

I like 4 of your top 5 with Villanova being the exception. George Mason could be this year's George Mason (if that makes any sense). So I'm only going 50% bet on that one. And I will add UCLA (not to your picks, but for mine). I have them going deep in my bracket and believe them to be the best long shot to get to the Final Four. Their big man can dominate when his head is in the game. We'll see . . .
Also love the Irish/Zips OVER. ND should put up 90, and Akron should be in the mid 60's. God I hope I'm not disappointed.

 

[WhoDeyIrish]

I hate Xavier but they are not overrated at all. Tu Holloway is going to take this game over at some point. This should be one of the better games of the first round I see Xavier winning. Cincinnati is garbage and shouldn't be a 6 seed that's laughable Missouri wins that game. Villanova is playing really bad entering the tournament. No one expects them to win this game including myself, and that makes me a tad nervous. I really like Gonzaga on Thursday. St Johns lost a player name is catching me right now that is a good contributor. St Johns doesn't travel well and should have a tough time in this one. I think some of the Big East teams lose this first weekend. Marquette, Cincinnati, St John's, and Villanova.

 

[Mr. McGibblets]

Dude, I am tired of reading everyone's analysis. Everytime I read something I go back and make a change to my brackets. Information overload. I cant decide who the hell I want to take. I hate trying to figure out the upsets.

Part of me wants to ride Mich State to the Elite 8, another part wants me to ride Nova to Sweet 16/Elite 8 level. I want to take Oakland first round. I want to take Belmont. But i dont want my bracket to explode.

Ah yes...the madness.

 

[IrishLax]

I hate Xavier but they are not overrated at all. Tu Holloway is going to take this game over at some point. This should be one of the better games of the first round I see Xavier winning. Cincinnati is garbage and shouldn't be a 6 seed that's laughable Missouri wins that game. Villanova is playing really bad entering the tournament. No one expects them to win this game including myself, and that makes me a tad nervous. I really like Gonzaga on Thursday. St Johns lost a player name is catching me right now that is a good contributor. St Johns doesn't travel well and should have a tough time in this one. I think some of the Big East teams lose this first weekend. Marquette, Cincinnati, St John's, and Villanova.

So Cinci sucks... but Xavier is good... but Cinci beat Xavier by 20? I probably haven't watch Xavier as much as you have, but I did watch a couple of their games. They have slow bigs who will not be able to come out and guard guys like Crowder on the perimeter. And Holloway is great... but he does not take over games when he has athletic and taller defenders on him... and Marquette is full of tweeners. That's why he only scored 5 against Cinci on 2 for 13 shooting and 14 against ODU on 3 of 10 shooting. He also turned the ball over quite a bit in both of those games.

Missouri has three speeds: fast, faster and fastest. They don't guard well and don't score well against teams that can get back and stop easy transition buckets. My grandma is a season ticket holder for Mizzou football and basketball.... and she thinks they are awful this year. That's good enough for me. They really haven't beaten anyone this year... their best win is over KSU who is a #5 seed... whereas Cinci has proven themselves on the court.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Dude, I am tired of reading everyone's analysis. Everytime I read something I go back and make a change to my brackets. Information overload. I cant decide who the hell I want to take. I hate trying to figure out the upsets.

Part of me wants to ride Mich State to the Elite 8, another part wants me to ride Nova to Sweet 16/Elite 8 level. I want to take Oakland first round. I want to take Belmont. But i dont want my bracket to explode.

Ah yes...the madness.

Great- I have both Oakland and Belmont winning a game in my bracket. Now I want to change it- thanks alot!

 

[WhoDeyIrish]

So Cinci sucks... but Xavier is good... but Cinci beat Xavier by 20? I probably haven't watch Xavier as much as you have, but I did watch a couple of their games. They have slow bigs who will not be able to come out and guard guys like Crowder on the perimeter. And Holloway is great... but he does not take over games when he has athletic and taller defenders on him... and Marquette is full of tweeners. That's why he only scored 5 against Cinci on 2 for 13 shooting and 14 against ODU on 3 of 10 shooting. He also turned the ball over quite a bit in both of those games.

Missouri has three speeds: fast, faster and fastest. They don't guard well and don't score well against teams that can get back and stop easy transition buckets. My grandma is a season ticket holder for Mizzou football and basketball.... and she thinks they are awful this year. That's good enough for me. They really haven't beaten anyone this year... their best win is over KSU who is a #5 seed... whereas Cinci has proven themselves on the court.

I love that you have meaningful analysis and I'm glad that there are two sides to this argument. Cincinnati did play well in the beginning of the season but since then I've thought that they haven't looked good. I have watched Xavier a lot and of course I've thought about picking against them this year like every other year in the first round. Then I'm like damnit every time I pick against them in the first or second round they always seem to make it to the sweet 16. I do think Nati has a good shot to win and could shock some people but I just haven't seen it lately from them. The Marquette/Xavier game is a little more difficult to predict and I might be backwards on this one but I think if it stays close Xavier wins. I think the way Marquette wins this game is by causing a lot of turnovers and jumping out to a big lead. I just don't see it. Thanks for the meaningful post and great analysis. I have a great stat for you just in case both of these teams advance. If WVU and Kentucky both get by their first round opponents which they should, although Clemson has looked very good lately. John Calipari is 1-8 career vs Bob Huggins just a thought for you. Also if I were you I might throw a little change on that ODU team to win and possibly cover tomorrow. I really think this team gets by Butler fairly easy and possibly beats Pitt in the second round. They match up very well with Pittsburgh. I'll be anxiously awaiting that line if it plays out that way. Good luck tomorrow and Friday.

 

[Mr. McGibblets]

Youd have to have balls to pick that ODU Pitt upset in a meaningful pool. Would be a great call on your part though.

 

[IrishLax]

I love that you have meaningful analysis and I'm glad that there are two sides to this argument. Cincinnati did play well in the beginning of the season but since then I've thought that they haven't looked good. I have watched Xavier a lot and of course I've thought about picking against them this year like every other year in the first round. Then I'm like damnit every time I pick against them in the first or second round they always seem to make it to the sweet 16. I do think Nati has a good shot to win and could shock some people but I just haven't seen it lately from them. The Marquette/Xavier game is a little more difficult to predict and I might be backwards on this one but I think if it stays close Xavier wins. I think the way Marquette wins this game is by causing a lot of turnovers and jumping out to a big lead. I just don't see it. Thanks for the meaningful post and great analysis. I have a great stat for you just in case both of these teams advance. If WVU and Kentucky both get by their first round opponents which they should, although Clemson has looked very good lately. John Calipari is 1-8 career vs Bob Huggins just a thought for you. Also if I were you I might throw a little change on that ODU team to win and possibly cover tomorrow. I really think this team gets by Butler fairly easy and possibly beats Pitt in the second round. They match up very well with Pittsburgh. I'll be anxiously awaiting that line if it plays out that way. Good luck tomorrow and Friday.

Yeah... to the first part I bolded that is a really good point I wasn't considering. Xavier does have a strong history of playing very well in the tourney. And then look at Marquette who has played hard this year but not been able to close games well. I suddenly feel far less confident in my pick lol.

As for ODU, I love that team. Like all Virginia teams, I watch them more then the average bear, and I can safely say they are the kind of team that can beat anyone a la the George Mason Final Four team. Why? Because they have some great interior players and play very good, very controlled defense. In my bracket I have them winning but I'm not betting on them only the same reason I'm not betting against MSU... and that is when tournament time comes anything is possible with Butler and Michigan State. Those schools seemingly use the regular season as some sort of pre-season and then flip a switch every March and start playing with a whole different level of focus and execution.

Going to be an exciting March, that's the only thing I can guarantee for sure

 

[WhoDeyIrish]

Youd have to have balls to pick that ODU Pitt upset in a meaningful pool. Would be a great call on your part though.

I'm getting ready to finish up this pool that I am in for just a $20 entry and I'm having a hell of a time. It's really complicating this year. Duke adds Kyrie Irving back and suddenly they, to me, become the favorites. Notre Dame scares me a bit, to me they could really make a deep run and be a final four team or lose to a team like Florida State in the 2nd round, just praying they don't lose to Akron. Anyways about picking ODU, I'm just having a hell of a time with that South East side. With teams like Belmont, ODU, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Utah State even BYU just driving me nuts. I like where I'm sitting in the other 3 regions but just beating myself up down there. I don't want to bet against Michigan State and a lot of teams are really flaky in that region. With the likes of Kansas State, Wisconsin (Pitt) from a tourney stand point they never seem to show. Damn region is going to make and break a lot of brackets this year.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Wow- not a good start with Louisville. All I can say is OUCH! Hopefully the Big East picks it up and we get it back.

 

[IrishLax]

Wow- not a good start with Louisville. All I can say is OUCH! Hopefully the Big East picks it up and we get it back.

Yeah... told you I wasn't that confident in that one... but wow.... in no way did I expect Louisville to actually end up losing the game. Very disappointed.

I didn't get to watch the game, what happened?

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Louisville didn't score in the first 5 1/2 minutes of the game (8-0) but came back to be down 2 at half. It was tight the whole second half. Still not sure how this happened. It seemed as though the physical BE style of play and refs hurt them as they picked up a lot of quick touch fouls, and that may have mentally altered their play for the rest of the game, but I can't say for sure.
Kentucky got lucky and had a bunch of bad calls go their way. Princeton was tough. I wonder what the death rate in that state would be if both Louisville and UK lost in the 1st round?

 

[IrishLax]

Cinci +1 looking good. Under looking alright... hopefully Cinci slows it down with the lead. So hopefully I split my non-confident bets 1-1 and start a nice 1-0 streak on the ones where I really had a good feeling.

 

[IrishLax]

So not too shabby of a start yesterday... finished the evening 2-1 (3-1 if you count UCLA +2) and that included both of my less-confident picks. I'll take it.

 

[IrishLax]

Whenever Tenn looks like it is going to open up a big lead they miss freethrows, give up offensive rebounds or commit a rare bailout foul. Going to be a close one, but Tenn is definitely taking the game to Michigan at the moment.

 

[IrishLax]

So I went 1-2-1 on the second day bringing the total record to 3-3-1. So I hit 50% right on the nose and you luckily don't owe me anything (because I certainly don't deserve it). Cannot believe that garbage time 3 by Akron nor how Villanova blew yet another late game lead. But I guess that's March Madness for ya.

Also luckily, you took the UCLA bet so you finish very slightly in the black at 4-3-1.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Thanks for playing along. Fortunately I didn't lose my *** . . . so thanks for that. Trust me, I really wanted to send you th tix.

Bottom line is that betting is tough; so many unknown variables and randomness. It truly is the house's game to win. But it is fun and makes the games more exciting when done within a budget.

Good job, LAX; your analysis was persuasive.