Do 2009 W/L records predict 2010?

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

From original work of 'Omahadomer' on NDN and suggested to me
by 'NJ Irish' on UHND. The (1) off pnts/game, (2) MoV,(3) def
pnts/game and (4) % games won of 120 teams for 2008 were
compared to 2009. About 1320+ games were involved each year.

Do one year's stats predict the next season? Surprisingly,
yes. If the coaching remains a constant and there is
little roster turnover, the listed stats predict just as
well as the Rivals average star rating of a team's roster.

Here are the relationships or correlations...Tom

+ 47% av offensive points/game (2008 to 2009).
+ 63% av margin of victory/game (2008 to 2009).
+ 56% av defensive points/game (2008 to 2009).
+ 58% average % of games won (2008 to 2009).

 

[GreatGolson]

Do one year's stats predict the next season? Surprisingly,
yes. If the coaching remains a constant and there is
2009).

we got a new coach in case you didnt hear

 

[IrishMoore1]

No. Last year means nothing. Has nothing to do w/ this season. New coach, whole new team. Let's get it.

 

[irishfan]

Haha hes not stating thats his argument for this ND team, just stating the trends from 2008 to 2009. This will be interesting to look at for next year with ND, with potentially only 2 seniors starting on each side of the ball this year.

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

This is a 120 team database...

This is a 120 team database...

we got a new coach in case you didnt hear

We are talking about two 1320+ game season/120 teams data-
bases comparing 2008 to 2009 and looking for relationships
that carry over from year to year and can be used to predict!

It applies to schools that have no real roster turnover and
where coaching is constant.

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[Easton Pa ND Fan]

This is NOT a ND prediction...

This is NOT a ND prediction...

No. Last year means nothing. Has nothing to do w/ this season. New coach, whole new team. Let's get it.

The post clearly states that the prediction ability is
based upon the continuity of coaching and very little
roster change. Does it thus apply to ND? No!

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[Old Man Mike]

Geez, gentlemen, give Easton a break. This is good work for anyone trying to get a larger perspective on college football which includes our opponents. Whether "we" win our games is determined by not only how "we" play but how "they" play, too. If I was scouting an opponent, I'd like to know what they do well and what they do poorly. Whether anybody wishes to believe it, analyses like this [in many varieties] are being used by pro teams in several sports to try to gain small edges on their opponents as well as to plan correctively for the future. I'm in standing applause for Easton and hope he keeps at this stuff. Knowledge is Power---and you do not know when it becomes crucially applicable. Anyone who doesn't want to apply their brain to Easton's magnificent stats should just go to the next thread and not bother to toss some shit-bomb at him.