Do 4 and 3 star players become All-Americans?

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

Yes, the proportion is greater at the 5 and 4 star level
compared to the 3 star recruits (as expected). A clear
analysis is provided at the link below. "Bob Drake" at
NotreDameFans was the original source for this post...Tom

Mister Relevant: Why you shouldn't dismiss recruiting rankings - Dr. Saturday - NCAAF Blog - Yahoo! Sports

 

[DKSchrute]

This recruiting stuff is as hit and miss as it gets. What I figured though is about how it plays out. The 5 star guys are 10 times more likely to become elite players than the 2 and 3s. Thats why everyone wants them but only the top 5 programs get them, hence the reason they are top 5.

Notre Dame is a 6-6 program, until it changes the top guys are not considering ND

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Would be interesting to see these numbers comparing Rivals, Scout, and ESPN. Who does the best job?

 

[IrishInFl]

How many 3* become heisman winners? Sam Bradford comes to mind, but I can't think of anyone else.

 

[49er-Irish]

How many 3* become heisman winners? Sam Bradford comes to mind, but I can't think of anyone else.

Rivals rankings star rankings started in 2002, so only the last five Heisman winners had star rankings. And yeah, Bradford has been the only 3* winner.

Reggie Bush -5*
Troy Smith - 4*
Tim Tebow - 5*
Sam Bradford - 3*
Mark Ingram - 4*

 

[irishmarine]

Developemen has so much to do with it too. Natural talent can get you through high svmchool but against top talent you have to hve a coach who can teach you technique and fundamentals

 

[phork]

Just for shits and giggles go take a look at Rivals top prospects by position for the last 5 years or so. Not a lot of those names stayed at the top. Interesting.

 

[irish1958]

Developemen has so much to do with it too. Natural talent can get you through high svmchool but against top talent you have to hve a coach who can teach you technique and fundamentals

How true; when Ara took over the program he was told that it would be years until he could get enough good talent for ND to do anything.
Ara's response was that he had plenty of talent.
As you remember, he was 9-1 with the only loss coming when his corner back fell, allowing USC to win.

 

[jason_h537]

stars are projections of talent
typically

5 Star= Immidiate impact guy or 1st round pick
4 star= huge upside, will make impact sooner than later. 2-3rd round pick
3= will need development but can contribute, 2nd day pick

Just like the draft their are 1st round busts and 2nd day gems.

 

[shortnd]

In 2005 there were 28-5 star players. Only 11 got drafted. 14 got arrested.

 

[MeanGreen]

This is something that has amazed me for years now. Does Rival, Scouts, ESPN, whoever actually watch extensive amounts of tape on every junior and senior and compile these rankings. Also, do they take into account the region and the class of football the player is participating in. I know most of the stats prove that the 4 and 5 star guys make up the NC teams, but do they all contribute at the position they were given that ranking? Are they all starters of Off or Def.? I maybe wrong but not every starter on the Off or Def for Alabama, Texas, or Florida were 4 or 5 star guys. I think we need athletic, fast, dedicated players, like Lou and Ara had and hopefully Kelly and staff can develop them and put them in a position to help the team reach its goal of a NC.

 

[phork]

This is something that has amazed me for years now. Does Rival, Scouts, ESPN, whoever actually watch extensive amounts of tape on every junior and senior and compile these rankings. Also, do they take into account the region and the class of football the player is participating in. I know most of the stats prove that the 4 and 5 star guys make up the NC teams, but do they all contribute at the position they were given that ranking? Are they all starters of Off or Def.? I maybe wrong but not every starter on the Off or Def for Alabama, Texas, or Florida were 4 or 5 star guys. I think we need athletic, fast, dedicated players, like Lou and Ara had and hopefully Kelly and staff can develop them and put them in a position to help the team reach its goal of a NC.

Factoring in all those things I would think it would be impossible to compile a definitive list. A perspective 5 star playing in some junk league is better than a 4 star that plays in a tough league? I know I would hate to have to rate these guys.

 

[IrishAddiction]

In 2005 there were 28-5 star players. Only 11 got drafted. 14 got arrested.

Lol this freaking cracked me up. Reps.

jason_h537~

stars are projections of talent
typically

5 Star= Immidiate impact guy or 1st round pick
4 star= huge upside, will make impact sooner than later. 2-3rd round pick
3= will need development but can contribute, 2nd day pick

Just like the draft their are 1st round busts and 2nd day gems.

I have to agree with jason on this one. The guys getting the 1st rounders, alot of them, it will help take them to the top. Look at USC, OSU, Florida, Bama, and Texas the past 5 recruiting cycles, and then tend to stay in the top ten on most recruiting services. They also tend to stay near the top ten in football.

I hope that kelly has a keen eye for talent, and does pick up those gems that others dont see. We already know he has shown he and the staffs he puts around him can develope them.

 

[irishlaw77]

Very good report and links. While true that being a 5* on Rivals does not automatically punch your ticket to being a first round draft pick, and there are definitely 2-3*s out there that develop well and end up being highly sought after in the NFL, but percentage-wise, you have much better odds of winding up with an NFL-caliber player if you have a 5* in your program.

Even though it was from a report with a poor sample size, it seems that a 4* athlete is about 3 times more likely to be drafted the first day than a 3 star. It would be a much more interesting result if your perceived ability out of high school had no effect on your future prospects, but unsurprisingly this is not the case. I hate to admit it, but the ranking services seem to get it pretty right in the aggregate.

 

[jason_h537]

Lol this freaking cracked me up. Reps.



I have to agree with jason on this one. The guys getting the 1st rounders, alot of them, it will help take them to the top. Look at USC, OSU, Florida, Bama, and Texas the past 5 recruiting cycles, and then tend to stay in the top ten on most recruiting services. They also tend to stay near the top ten in football.

I hope that kelly has a keen eye for talent, and does pick up those gems that others dont see. We already know he has shown he and the staffs he puts around him can develope them.

I am not suggesting 5 stars become 1sdt round picks but mearly comparing them in terms of hit and miss. I would put more stock into class rankings than player rankings. We all love 5 and 4 star commits but consistent top 10 classes usually means success.

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

Why 5 star recruits are a priority...

Why 5 star recruits are a priority...

Yes, the proportion is greater at the 5 and 4 star level
compared to the 3 star recruits (as expected). A clear
analysis is provided at the link below. "Bob Drake" at
NotreDameFans was the original source for this post...Tom

Mister Relevant: Why you shouldn't dismiss recruiting rankings - Dr. Saturday - NCAAF Blog - Yahoo! Sports

Position of need requires a competent player asap. A
coach knows a 5 star talent will be on the field with
the least amount of development time...Tom